FAIRFAX COUNTY PARK-AND-RIDE DEMAND ESTIMATION STUDY

Transcription

1 FAIRFAX COUNTY PARK-AND-RIDE DEMAND ESTIMATION STUDY Michael Demmon GIS Spatial Analyst Fairfax County, DOT Fairfax, VA Scudder Wagg Planner Michael Baker Jr, Inc. Richmond, VA Additional support from: Caijun Luo, Transportation Planner, Fairfax County DOT Virginia Dept. of Transportation, Multi-Modal Planning Office Peggy Malone and Associates March 28, 2011 GIS-T Symposium GIS Analysis using Network Analyst

2 Outline Introduction Study Area Current Park & Ride Development techniques Goals of a Park & Ride Problem Definition Data Collection Application Design First Response Challenges of modeling real-world scenarios Examples Future Considerations & Conclusions

3 Study Area Fairfax County & the Washington D.C. Area Washington D.C. MSA Fairfax County, Virginia 22 Jurisdictions included covering 3 states (6 cities, 15 counties, 1 district) 395 Square Miles in area 1.1 Million residents 8.2 Million residents Worst congestion in the nation* 70+ Hours wasted due to commute delays* 2 nd highest Median Household Income in the Nation Most populous jurisdiction in Virginia and the Washington Metro area 7 Transit organizations operating in, or passing through Fairfax County *(The 2010 Urban Mobility Study By TTI)

4 Existing Methodology Planners observe existing conditions, review development plans and make educated guesses of Park & Ride demand Currently, Site typically drives specifics Area/location Size Ease of Access (commuter, pedestrian, bike, etc) General understanding that transit service options greatly effect usage of Park & Ride facility Optimal utilization ranges between 70-85% capacity

5 Park & Ride Facilities in Fairfax County 39 Park & Ride lots 7 Lots at Metro rail stations 4 along I-66, 3 along I-95 & I Lots at Virginia Rail Express (VRE) stations 9 Lots along I-95 corridor 10 Lots along I-66 corridor 4 Lots along VA 267 (Dulles Toll Rd) corridor 6 Lots along other highvolume corridors 28,394 Total Capacity

6 Commuter Intercept Approaches & Goals Intercept Fairfax county Residents Goal: Eliminate vehicle all together Requirements: provide transit services from origin to destination Strategically place P&R facilities near high-density residential Intercept Non-Fairfax County Residents Goal: Reduce through traffic & overall congestion Requirements: Place large P&R facilities along major corridors Provide express transit service to Metrorail terminal stations

7 Study Areas by Primary Transit Corridor Fairfax County is the largest commuter-origin jurisdiction in the DC area Commuter Corridors Major I-66 from West I-95 from South VA-267 from Northwest* Minor US 1 from South VA 7 from Northwest* US 50 from West* VA 7100 cross county *These routes connect to major arterials & interstates and act as primary collectors.

8 Purpose of Analysis & Development Identify Existing Trends Develop a Park and Ride Demand Analysis application to estimate usage at potential, future Park & Ride locations throughout Fairfax County Provide calculated predictions of usage Automate the process of, and increase the accuracy of determining potential usage of Park & Ride facilities Considerations Available transit services Proximity to regional arterial highways

9 Fairfax Park-and-Ride Facilities and Markets

10 Data Collected and Geocoding Summary of Data Collected Park-and-Ride Facilities Counted 36 Vehicles Counted 22,954 Vehicle Plate Numbers Collected 20,435 Addresses Returned from DMV 19,887 Addresses within Virginia 19,344 Successfully Geocoded Addresses 18,296 89% of all vehicles had VA plates. 79.7% of all counted vehicles successfully geocoded.

11 Individual Lot Analysis

12 Market Area Analysis: Orange Line Median Distance (mi) Park and Ride Lot Spaces Vehicles Straight line Driving East Falls Church West Falls Church 2,025 1, Dunn Loring 1,319 1, Vienna 5,849 5,

13 Market Area Analysis: Southern Fairfax Metro Median Distance (mi) Park and Ride Lot Spaces Vehicles Straight line Driving Van Dorn Street Franconia- Springfield 5,069 4, Huntington 3,090 2,

14 Market Analysis Results Lots differentiated by service and location. MetroRail Service VRE Service Express Bus within 2 miles of freeway Express Bus beyond 2 miles of freeway Local Bus within 2 miles of freeway Local Bus beyond 2 miles of freeway No Transit Service (Car or Vanpool Only) Coefficients for population, households and work trips developed for each lot type.

15 Park-and-Ride Demand Estimation Toolbar Step-by-step process 1. Add, Edit, Delete, Move PnR Locations 2. Change PnR Attributes 3. Create Market Buffers 4. Edit Buffers 5. Calculate Demand Estimates

16 Initiating Analysis

17 Adding, Editing, Deleting PnR Facilities

18 Creating and Editing Market Areas

19 Calculating Demand

20 Calculation Process Developed using Model Builder Adjusts for overlapping market areas through spatial join and join count.

21 Calculation in Progress

22 Example Tabular Output Name Estimated Demand Population within Market Area Households within Market Area AM Work Trips within Market Area Population Basis for Demand Estimate Household Basis for Demand Estimate Trip Basis for Demand Estimate Metro ,204 15,211 31,070 8,730 3,374 7,022 Target ,580 15,403 34,221 8,971 3,261 7,597 Chantilly 62 21,019 6,972 14,096 4,409 1,464 2,876 Tysons Corner 1,083 24,019 9,863 21,138 3,931 1,609 3,413

23 New Park & Ride Lots Old Keene Mill P&R Opened November, 2011 Baron Cameron Park P&R Opened January, 2011 Sunset Hills P&R Opens 4/4/2011 Temporary lot during Reston East Metrorail construction Reston East Metrorail Existing lot Closes 4/3 Scheduled to re-open Fall of 2013 Estimated parking capacity of 2300

24 Old Keene Mill Close-up Old Keene Mill P&R 4 PnRs adjacent to each other SLUG line effect Estimated Demand of 334 OKM actual observed usage in first 120 days Averaged 249 Drop at AmL. from avg to avg. of 30 Drop at SUMC from avg. 52 to avg. of 34 Average Usage of 3 south lots is 72% Explanation for difference Proximity of other lots Realignment of commuter parking habits

25 Reston East Closure Rest East closing 4/3/ spaces Served by 10 routes Sunset Hills P&R Opens 4/4/ spaces Serviced by 2 routes Estimated Demand of 404 (with RE removed) Baron Cameron Park P&R Opened January, 2011 Created as overflow for closing of Reston East 50 spaces (no observed usage yet) Estimated Demand of 11 (with RE removed)

26 Future Tool Improvements Develop more service options within tool Collect, analyze, and predict more quantitative data relevant to Park & Ride usage More consideration for direction of flow for commuter traffic Incorporate forecast demographics for an understanding of future usage

27 Large-scale regional Park & Ride studies needed Develop more thorough quantitative methods for analyzing regional data Maximize transit options for maximum utilization of Park & Ride facilities CONCLUSIONS