RDEIR/SDEIS Traffic Forecasting Key Assumptions Update

Transcription

1 RDEIR/SDEIS Traffic Forecasting Key Assumptions Update presented to the Technical Advisory Committee August 21, 2013

2 Traffic Forecasting Assumptions RDEIR/SDEIS Planning Horizon Year Socio-Economic Inputs No Build Definition Multimodal Assumptions Goods Movement Assumptions (Today s Focus) 2

3 Outline of Presentation Definition of Terms Overview of I-710 Modeling Assumptions Types of Truck Trips in the I-710 Traffic Forecasting Key assumptions and what has changed since previous DEIR forecasts 3

4 What is a TEU? Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU): Measure of ports containerized cargo volume One twenty-foot container = 1 TEU One forty-foot container = 2 TEUs 1.8 TEUs per container 80% of the containers are 40 feet in length and 20% are 20 feet in length 4

5 Marine Containers: 20 foot and 40 foot 5

6 What is a Lift? Railyard demand and capacity are measured in Lifts counts the number of times a container or trailer is lifted and placed onto or off of a railcar 6

7 Domestic and Marine Containers 7

8 Truck Bobtail and Chassis 8

9 Elements of Goods Movement: Port Primary Container Trips 2035 Forecast: 110,000 Daily Truck Trips Near-Dock (< 5 miles) and Off-Dock Railyards On-Dock Rail* (no truck trips) Warehouse, Transload Facility, or other destination *Inland Point Intermodal (IPI) - the movement of intact marine containers by rail 9

10 What is Transloading? Transloading Direct transfer of products from 40-foot marine containers to 53- foot domestic containers or wheeled trailers Cross-docking transfer occurs within 24 hours of the marine container s arrival at the transload center Cargo in three 40-foot high-cubed marine containers can fit into two 53-foot domestic containers or wheeled trailers Inland Point Intermodal (IPI) movement of intact marine containers by rail without any transloading of the cargo 10

11 Elements of Goods Movement: Transload Truck Trips 2035 Forecast: 17,000 Daily Truck Trips Port Primary Truck Trips: Transload Facility Off-dock Railyard Warehouse or Distribution Center 11

12 Elements of Goods Movement: Domestic Intermodal Truck Trips (Not Port-Related) 2035 Forecast: 14,000 Daily Study Area Truck Trips Intermodal Railyard (Off-Dock) Warehouse, manufacturing, etc. 12

13 Elements of Goods Movement: Domestic Non-Intermodal Truck Trips (Not Port-Related) 2035 Forecast: 172,000 Daily Truck Trips (I-710 Study Area) Warehouse, manufacturing, retail, etc. Warehouse, manufacturing, retail, etc. 13

14 I-710 RDEIR Goods Movement Assumptions for: Port cargo volume Rail/truck mode shares Inclusion of SCIG & ICTF railyards in No Build and Build alternatives Activity by intermodal yards TSM/TDM/ITS for Goods Movement 14

15 Current I-710 Modeling Assumptions Lower Port container forecast for 2035 Better understanding of goods movement travel markets (imports, exports, empties, transloading, rail and truck mode shares) Separate estimates of components of cargo movement that generate truck trips Current and future locations of warehouses and transload facilities SCIG and ICTF improvements Revised projections of intermodal railyard demand and capacity 15

16 Types of Truck Trips in the I-710 Traffic Forecasts Container Truck Trips Port Primary Truck Trips (origin or destination at the ports, includes trips to/from near and off-dock railyards, transload facilities and other warehouses or distribution centers) Port Secondary Transload Truck Trips* (from warehouses to both railyards and other warehouses) Domestic Intermodal Trips* (to/from railyards) Domestic Non-Intermodal Trips* Non-Container Truck Trips Port Non-Container Truck Trips* (e.g., car carriers, bulk products, specialized cargo) * Not separately forecast in previous I-710 DEIR model 16

17 Ports Container Cargo Assumptions Annual TEUs* (millions) Base Year (2012) No Project (2035) Build Alternatives (2035) Prior I-710 DEIR (2035) Same assumptions for I-710 and Gateway Cities COG Strategic Transportation Plan (STP) traffic studies * TEU = Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit of Cargo 17

18 Ports Primary Daily Truck Trips Container Truck Trips (2-way) Base Year (2012) No Project (2035) Total Truck Trips (2-way) Build Alternatives (2035) Prior I-710 DEIR (2035) 49, , , ,000 Base Year (2012) No Project (2035) Build Alternatives (2035) Prior I-710 DEIR (2035) 55, , , ,000 18

19 Heavy Duty Truck Trips Heavy Duty Truck Trips per Day Year 2035 (I-710 Study Area) Previous I-710 DEIR Model New Model Port Primary Container Related Bobtail 31,000 Chassis 11,000 Container 62,000 Subtotal Container Related 104,000 Port Non-Container 6,000 Port Primary 110, ,000 Secondary Transload 17,000* Domestic Intermodal 14,000* Domestic Non-Intermodal 78,000* 78,000 TOTAL 219, ,000 * Not forecast separately in previous I-710 DEIR model 19

20 Port Containerized Cargo Volume by Market (Millions of Annual TEUs) Port Cargo By Market 2012 (Base Year) Prior I-710 DEIR 2035 Prior I-710 DEIR Ratio (2035/2012) New 2035 New Ratio (2035/2012) Loaded On-Dock Loaded Near and Off- Dock Loaded True Local * 3.2 Not Not Loaded Transload ** 2.9 separated separated True Local+Transload Empties Total * Loaded container to and from Southern California market ** Includes transload to rail and transload to truck 20

21 Intermodal Rail Yards North End: LATC (UP) East LA (UP) Hobart (BNSF) Eastern (Off Map): City of Industry (UP) San Bernardino (BNSF) South End: ICTF (UP) SCIG (BNSF)* On-Dock Yards * Proposed 21

22 SCIG/ICTF Assumptions for RDEIR/SDEIS SCIG RDEIR certified by POLA Harbor Commission March 7, 2013 and by LA City Council on May 8, 2013 ICTF DEIR for public circulation in 2014 I-710 RDEIR/SDEIS to include SCIG and improved ICTF in 2035 No Build and Build Alternatives Sensitivity test will be conducted without SCIG or ICTF improvements 22

23 Intermodal Rail Yards Assumptions: Demand Millions of Annual Lifts* Yards W/O SCIG and ICTF Improvements 2035 W/SCIG and ICTF Improvements Difference North End South End Eastern Total North: LATC, ELA, Hobart South: ICTF, SCIG, On-dock Eastern: COI, SB * Includes marine containers (Inland Point Intermodal), port transload containers, and domestic containers 23

24 Intermodal Rail Yards Assumptions: Capacity Millions of Annual Lifts W/SCIG and ICTF Improvements North End LATC ELA Hobart * South End ICTF SCIG On-Dock Eastern COI SB Total * 0.8 Million not needed if SCIG Built 24

25 Warehouse and Transload Locations in Gateway Cities Warehouses (orange and blue dots) and Transload Facilities (black dots) 25

26 Time of Day Distribution of Port Containerized Truck Trips Day Shift (8 am to 6 pm) Base Year (2012)* 54% POLA 56% POLB No Project (2035) Prior I-710 DEIR (2035) Build Alternatives (2035) 60% 60% 60% Second Shift (6 pm to 3 am) Hoot Shift (3 am to 8 am) 44% POLA 44% POLB 2% POLA 0% POLB 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% *Varies by terminal (rounded) 26

27 Next Steps Complete traffic forecasting model validation 2035 No Build Traffic Forecast Alternative 6C Modified Traffic Forecast Alternative 6D Traffic Forecast Reassess alternatives Present Findings 27