Overview on transport data and MRV potential in Asia

Transcription

1 Overview on transport data and MRV potential in Asia Bert Fabian Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities Center (CAI-Asia Center) Transport Sector and NAMAs: Assessing Data Readiness for MRV Pasig, Philippines 9 February 2012

2 Outline Background and context Overview on transport data management in Asian countries and cities Parameters necessary for emissions estimation Transport planning national, regional, and city plans country experiences

3 Increasing motorization Source: ADB, CAI-Asia, Segment Y Ltd., and IEA

4 Decreasing conventional oil production Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of natural gas liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus Source: OECD/IEA, In Fulton, L. Global modal shift scenario complementing Energy and CO2 benefits through implementing the Bangkok 2020 Declaration. Presented at UMI-EST, 4-6 December 2011, New Delhi, India

5 Transport Data Availability Data Availability by Mode and Attributes in Selected Asian Countries MODE Transport Vehicle Spatial Vehicle ALL Purpose Operation Fuel Type Scope Property ATTRIBUTES Walk % 13% % Bike - - 8% 13% 26% - 16% Road 64% 79% 92% 44% 66% 63% 68% Rail 71% 81% 83% 34% 88% 50% 68% Pipeline 100% - 75% - 69% 19% 63% Conveyor 67% - 38% - 50% 13% 39% Water Domestic 57% 75% 88% - 71% 50% 68% Water International 57% 88% 88% - 88% 50% 74% Air Domestic 100% 88% 100% - 75% 69% 72% Air International 100% 88% 88% - 88% 63% 71% ALL MODES 75% 83% 67% 26% 69% 47% 55% Source: CAI-Asia and ADB. Transport Data in Asia Study (2011, Unpublished) Note: Assessment included China, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam 5

6 Data quality checks Potential errors and uncertainties Data availability Ease of accessibility Data Quality and Accessibility Example: Vehicle Registration Data Flow in Sri Lanka Dept of Census & Statistics Veh class, Fuel used Central Bank of SL Vehicle class Easily accessible to data users Divisional Secretariat: Data Generator For annual revenue license: Vehicle class, Fuel used, Vehicle weight, others Dept of Motor Traffic: Data Generator New Registrations: Vehicle make, Color, Manufacture year, Model, Veh. No., Engine No., Tire size, Wheel base, Chassis No., Type of body, Gross veh. weight., Veh category, Ownership, Usage, Import license, Overall measurement, Purpose of use, Registration status, Driving side, Country of origin, Fuel used, Pay load, Cylinder capacity, Seating capacity, Veh type description by manufacturer CAI-Asia,

7 Reasons: Need-based Data Collection Routinely monitored On demand Adhoc CAI-Asia, 2010

8 By Demand and Adhoc Budget Investment Routine Data Collected Reasons: Budget Limitations CAI-Asia, 2010 GDP at current prices by economic sector GDP at constant 1994 prices by economic sector Population and population density by province Average urban population by province Asphalted, stone paved, mixed stone, soil road (km) Volume of passengers traffic by type of transport Volume of passengers traffic by the road by province Volume of freight traffic by type of transport Volume of freight by type of transport Volume of freight by transport sector Inland waterways (km) Total length of bridges (m) Number of bridges Vehicle registration by vehicle type and by fuel type Origin-destination surveys Vehicle kilometer travelled (VKT) per veh-fuel type In-use veh population by veh type and fuel type Traffic count Occupancy Ridership Needed for data planning

9 Reasons: Lack of Coordination Ministry Data Motor vehicle registration Transport Licenses issued Passenger and freight kilometers Length of railways Rail Passenger and freight kilometers Length of roads Surface type and paved roads Public Works Number and length of bridges Road accidents Fuel consumption by volume and by type of fuel Energy Fuel pump price Environment Emissions inventories Economy/ Trade/ Economic growth, etc. Customs Volume of trade; Vehicle imports Economic growth and infrastructure growth Finance Transport investment Census Population Source: Based on author s research for Transport Data in Asia Study (2011, Unpublished).

10 Reasons: Lack of Harmonized Methodologies and Limited Data Sharing Private sector databases not shared with government Inconsistent government data Data with consultant Data with consultant Data with consultant Data to be collected Other countries Data with consultant Reported to Government Agency (client) Data with consultant National level Data with consultant Data with consultant Data with consultant Province-level data CAI-Asia, 2010 City-level data

11 Important parameters for emissions estimation Schipper s Activity-Structure-Intensity-Fuel Fuel Use and Emissions from Transport Total Transport Activity = A * S i * I i * F i,j Veh-km and pass-km by mode Emissions per unit of energy or volume or km from fuel J in mode I Technological energy efficiency Vehicle characteristics- Weight, power, etc. Occupancy/ Load Factor Vehicle fuel intensity Modal Energy Intensity Real drive cycles and routing, driver behavior Measure each component for making better decisions in future. The current emphasis on CO 2 measurement allows a window of opportunity to generate better data and more logical project decision making!! Source : Schipper, et.al.,

12 Activity and vehicle data availability Parameter National Level Availability Local Level Availability Vehicle Registered vehicles Yes? PARC data (vehicles on road) No No Fuel split No No Technology split No No Average age No No Emission factor Yes Yes Activity Average VKT/Year No Yes Average VKT/Corridor type No Yes Average speed per Corridor No Yes Average occupancy No Yes Average loading Yes (at corridor level) At corridor level Source: Gota. S. (Unpublished) Crunching numbers 12

13 High Variability of Emissions Estimates National Level: Case of India Transport CO2 Emissions (million tons) BAU forecast India transport emissions baseline and forecast done by more than 20 reputed institutions and publications Source: Gota. S. (Unpublished) Crunching numbers 13

14 Cars Motorcycl e Taxi Bus Walking Bicycle Bangalore -Metro (forecasts for 2007) Bangalore - CTTS 2007 Bangalore -MOUD 2008 KSPCB SIM-AIR 24 CO2 Emissions Tons/Day for Passenger Transport High Variability of Emissions Estimates City Level Case of Bangalore, India METRO ^(2007 ) CTTS (2006) MOUD (2008) BMLTA (2008) Considers Person Trips Uses registered Vehicles Includes freight TRIP MODE SHARE CO 2 Emissions tons/day Source: Gota. S. (Unpublished) Crunching numbers 14

15 TEEMP City - Evaluating impact of city investments TEEMP city is an assessment tool to provide guidance on CO 2 and air pollution emissions including fuel consumption and other co-benefits to the policy makers while preparing the mobility plans/low carbon transport plans. TEEMP city is being developed by CAI Asia and ITDP and financed by Veolia Environnement Institute ( would be released in 2012) It is a simple bottom-up excel spreadsheet (with defaults) tool to: 1. Evaluate the impact of mobility plans/ low carbon transport plans on CO 2 emissions 2. Quantify the cobenefits of implementing such transport plan ( fuel consumption, air pollution, safety benefits and travel time savings) 3. Assess the adequacy, comprehensiveness and governance related issues with respect to the mobility plan proposal /implementation and possible impact of such a measure. 4. Provide guidance on investment packages i.e. shift in investment pattern impact, increasing/decreasing the investment impact/ changing the proposal schedule etc. 15

16 TEEMP City - Evaluating impact of city investments 16

17 Thousands TEEMP City - Evaluating impact of city investments (Case of Jaipur, India) Total Cost (million) 5,074 5,073 5,073 5,072 5,072 5,071 5,071 5,070 5,070 5,069 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Project Scenario Revised Project Scenario VKT (millions) BAU VKT (millions) Mobility 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000-1,000 Total CO2 Savings (tons) Project Scenario Revised Project Scenario 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Fatalities BAU Fatalities Mobility % of Motorized Trips 2009 Baseline ,000 1,500 1, Mobility Plan Metro/Monorail BRT Bus Taxi 3W 2W Car Hours(millions) BAU Hours(millions) Mobility 17

18 Key issues Improve transport data collection and management Need for consolidated transport database Better coordination among various government agencies Harmonization of methodologies and definitions Use ASIF as a basis for measuring and monitoring emissions transparent, practical, and logical methodology Evaluating implications of city transport plans on emissions and other co-benefits 18

19 For more information CAI-Asia China Office 901A Reignwood Building, No. 8 YongAnDongLi Jianguomenwai Avenue Beijing China CAI-Asia Center center@cai-asia.org Unit 3505 Robinsons-Equitable Tower ADB Avenue, Pasig City Metro Manila 1605 Philippines CAI-Asia Country Networks China. India. Indonesia. Nepal. Pakistan. Philippines. Sri Lanka. Vietnam CAI-Asia India Office india@cai-asia.org Regus Elegance Elegance Tower, Mathura Road, Jasola Vihar, New Delhi India CAI-Asia Center Members 229 CAI-Asia Partnership Members 45 Cities 19 Environment ministries 13 Other Government agencies 17 Development agencies and foundations 66 NGOs 37 Academic and research institutes 32 Private sector companies Donors in 2011 Asian Development Bank ClimateWorks Foundation Energy Foundation Fredskorpset Norway Fu Tak Iam Foundation German International Cooperation (GIZ) Guangdong Government Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Institute for Transport Policy Studies Institute for Transportation and Development Policy International Union for Conservation of Nature Korea Transport Institute MAHA Philippine Business for the Environment United Nations Centre for Regional 19 Development (UNCRD) United Nations Environment Program Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles (UNEP PCFV) Veolia World Bank