The Economics and Regulation of the Freight Rail Industry. Third Annual Colloquium. June 16, 2017

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1 The Economics and Regulation of the Freight Rail Industry Third Annual Colloquium June 16, 2017

2 Stage-Setting The Rail Industry and the Economy The Level of Rail Output Mix of Traffic Rail Employment Rail Investment 2

3 Rail Traffic and Goods-Related GDP 24% 18% 12% 6% 0% -6% -12% -18% -24% -30% (% change over previous year) Goods-related GDP* Rail traffic** GDP sectors that generate freight were essentially in recession in 2016 correlation = 97% *Imports, exports, and personal consumption of goods; fixed residential investment; business investment in equipment & structures; government gross investment; and change in inventories. **U.S. carloads excluding coal and grain, plus intermodal units. Rail traffic is originations and does not include the U.S. operations of Canadian railroads. Source: BEA, AAR ASS

4 Macroeconomic Advisers & the Blue Chip Consensus Q4 to Q4 % change or average at Q GDP Growth Macroeconomic Advisers (6/3) Blue Chip (6/10) PCE Growth Macroeconomic Advisers Blue Chip Unemployment Rate* Macroeconomic Advisers Blue Chip GDP Price Inflation Macroeconomic Advisers Blue Chip month T-bill Yield* Macroeconomic Advisers Blue Chip year Treasury Note Yield* Macroeconomic Advisers Blue Chip * Percent; annual values are for fourth quarter June 2017

5 Class I RR Freight Revenue $52.9 $59.4 $56.1 ($ billions) $64.8 $67.6 $70.5 $75.1 $ % $63.2 $ Data are for Class I railroads and are not adjusted for inflation. Source: AAR ASS

6 Originated Tonnage in (billions of tons originated) '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16-16% Data are for Class I railroads. Source: AAR Freight Commodity Statistics ASS

7 Total U.S. Rail Carloads: (millions) '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Data are originations and do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR Weekly Railroad Traffic -2.1 ASS

8 Continued Declines in Rail Coal Carloads (millions) ASS Data are originated carloads for Class I railroads. Source: AAR (Freight Commodity Statistics)

9 Coal as Percentage of U.S. Railroad Revenue 21% 23% 25% 24% 25% 22% 20% 19% 17% 14% Data are based on originated tons for Class I railroads. Source: AAR (Freight Commodity Statistics) ASS

10 U.S. Electricity Generation by Type of Fuel Fuel Coal 52% 50% 45% 30% Natural Gas 16% 19% 24% 34% Nuclear 20% 19% 20% 20% Renewables 2% 2% 4% 8% Hydro 7% 7% 6% 6% Other 3% 4% 1% 1% Source: Energy Information Administration ASS

11 Rapid Intermodal Growth* (millions) Containers Trailers '80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16 * Source: AAR Weekly Railroad Traffic ASS

12 Why Did Intermodal Traffic Decline in 2016? P = $4.00 P=$

13 14 A Look at the Most Recent Data

14 Total U.S. Rail Carloads: Jan 2011 May ,000 (average weekly originations) 300, , , , , , Data are average weekly originations for each month, are not seasonally adjusted, do not include intermodal, and do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN RAILROADS

15 U.S. Rail Carloads Excluding Coal: Jan 2011 May ,000 (average weekly originations) 190, , , , , , , Data are average weekly originations for each month, are not seasonally adjusted, do not include intermodal, and do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN RAILROADS

16 U.S. Rail Intermodal Traffic: Jan 2011 May ,000 (average weekly originations) 280, , , , , , , Data are average weekly originations for each month, are not seasonally adjusted, and do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR Weekly Railroad Traffic ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN RAILROADS

17 U.S. Rail Carloads of Coal 140, , , , ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 (average weekly originations) Data are average weekly originations for each month, are not seasonally adjusted, do not include intermodal, and do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR Weekly Railroad Traffic ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN RAILROADS

18 Total Class I RR Employment 176, , , , , , , , , , Source: STB D E 19 DE 19 ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN RAILROADS

19 Spending on Infrastructure and Equipment* $20.2 $21.5 $20.2 $20.7 $23.3 ($ billions) $25.5 $25.1 $28.0 $30.3 $25.9 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 *Capital spending + mainten. expenses is preliminary. Data are for Class I RRs. Source: AAR ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN RAILROADS

20 Summary A thumbnail sketch an industry in flux The complete picture? No! Need a richer discussion of the fundamental economic forces driving the freight rail industry To be smart businessperson, regulator, consumer or legislator need to better understand fundamentals. The Georgetown Colloquium! 21

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