International trade and freight by 2050

Transcription

1 International trade and freight by 2050 Jari Kauppila, Senior Economist Intertanko, London, 18 Nov 2015

2 Intergovernmental Organisation 57 member countries (23 non-oecd) focussing on transport A strategic think tank for global transport policy issues An annual summit of Ministers

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5 Model framework International Trade (world regions)* Centroids Mode split Weight model Shortest path assignment to routes by mode Model steps sequence Outputs: 310 centroids, 20 products International trade by product in weight and tonne-km by origin-destination pair by mode Related CO 2 emissions by mode and region Travel time and delay by link and node, border crossing times, capacity

6 Underlying network model Source: ITF International Freight model OpenStreetMap, OpenFlights, Sea Project, UCL

7 What drives future trade? Scale and distance Size of the economies Distance (restrictions to trade, transportation technology, etc.) Production factors Physical and human capital (natural resources, arable land, skills) Changes in productivity Transport policies Changes in global value chains Geopolitical forces

8 Global trade elasticities have changed Average Average Own calculations based on World Bank and OECD

9 Emerging economies still drive growth % average annual rate 8 GDP growth 7 6 Emerging economies 5 4 World Advanced economies

10 A growing share of trade between emerging economies Within non- OECD 15% OECD w ith non-oecd 38% Within OECD 47% Within non- OECD 33% Within OECD 25% OECD w ith non-oecd 42%

11 Emerging economies move to higher valueadded activities changing trade composition Value-added shares by sector China India Euro Area Japan USA Services 43% 49% 51% 58% 72% 69% 75% 71% 78% 71% High-skilled manufacturing Other sectors (agriculture, energy and other manufacturing) 16% 41% 21% 31% 7% 41% 13% 29% 8% 9% 20% 22% 10% 12% 6% 15% 17% 16% 8% 21%

12 Implications for future global freight Global freight will more than quadruple by 2050 (by a factor of 4.3) (trade value by a factor of 4.2) Average hauling distance +17% Increasing capacity constraints can hamper economic growth Strong growth of CO 2 emission (+290%) undermines climate change goals An unprecedented challenge

13 Global freight volumes and CO 2 emissions by corridor North Pacific route Intra-North America +344% +263% +270% +191% North Atlantic route Intra- Europe +280% +195% Mediterranean and Caspian Sea +715% +689% +406% +315% Intra-Asia +403% +332% +374% +273% North Pacific route South Pacific route Intra- South America South Atlantic route Intra- Africa Indian Ocean route Oceania Freight volume in billion tonne-km CO 2 Emissions in million tonnes

14 Tanker related tonne-km to grow by a factor of Tonne-km for chemicals, oil, gas and petroleum products 2010 and Oceania South America Africa SOUTH PACIFIC Europe SOUTH ATLANTIC North America Asia MEDIT AND CASPIAN SEA INDIAN OCEAN NORTH PACIFIC NORTH ATLANTIC

15 Ports may require additional capacity The increase in movements in some ports may be more than 10 times greater

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17 Domestic share of global freight 10% of international trade takes place within domestic borders

18 Domestic share of trade-related CO 2 emissions 10% 30% of international trade takes place within domestic borders of total traderelated CO 2 is emitted here

19 International trade related CO 2 emissions Sea 37% 2010 Air 7% Rail 3% Sea 32% 2050 Air 9% Rail 3% Road 53% Road 56%

20 Aligning policies across supply chains Improve capacity management Invest in missing links Prepare for mega-ships Increase vehicle utilisation Many freight facilities are underutilised or managed at low efficiency level Focus on managing supply chains not only nodes More alternative and multi-modal connections to increase efficiency Adapt infrastructure to more and bigger vessels Also at port-hinterland links Improve load factors and reduce idle times across supply chains

21 2 1 Corporate Partnership Board Established in 2013 as the ITF s platform to enrich policy analysis and discussions with a corporate perspective Set to grow to some 50 companies, from all modes of transport and associated sectors, with importance placed also on a balanced geographical representation

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