Engineering. Gas and Oil Reliability. Modeling and Analysis. Dr. Eduardo Calixto ELSEVIER

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1 Gas and Oil Reliability Engineering Modeling and Analysis Dr. Eduardo Calixto ELSEVIER AMSTERDAM BOSTON HEIDELBERG LONDON NEW YORK OXFORD PARIS SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO SINGAPORE SYDNEY TOKYO Gulf Professional Publishing is an imprint of Elsevier P

2 Contents Preface Acknowledgments xi xv 1. Life Cycle Analysis Quantitative Failure Data Analysis Probability Density Functions Exponential PDF Normal PDF Logistic PDF Lognormal PDF Loglogistic PDF Gumbel PDF Weibull PDF Gamma PDF Generalized Gamma PDF How to Define PDF Parameters and Choose Which PDF Fits Better with the Failure Data Plot Method Rank Regression Maximum Likelihood Method How Reliable Is the Reliability: The Confidence Bound Will Tell You 56 References Accelerated Test and Reliability Growth Analysis Models Introduction Quantitative Accelerated Tests Arrhenius Life-Stress Model Eyring Life-Stress Model Inverse Power Law Life-Stress Model Temperature-Humidity Life-Stress Model Thermal-Nonthermal Life-Stress Model General Loglinear Life-Stress Model Proportional Hazard Life-Stress Model Cumulative Risk Life-Stress Model Qualitative Accelerated Tests (HALT and HASS) Reliability Growth Analysis Duanne Model Crow-Ansaa Model 98 vii

3 GUl) Contents Lloyd-Lipow Model Compertz Model Logistic Model Crow Extended Model Power Law Model 115 References Reliability and Maintenance Introduction to Failure Mode Effects Analysis Design Failure Mode Effects Analysis Failure Mode Analysis: Process and Operational Applications Reliability Centered on Maintenance Risk-Based Inspection 3.4. ReBI RGBI Analysis ORT Analysis 162 References Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability Analysis Introduction to RAM Analysis Scope Definition Failure and Repair Data Analysis Modeling and Simulation Sensitivity Analysis Conclusions and Reports Modeling and Simulation RBD Configuration Markov Chain Methodology Simulation 191 Performance Index Reliability and Availability 4.3. Sensitivity Analysis: Redundancy Policies, Maintenance Plans, Stock Policies, and Logistics Redundancy Policies Maintenance Policies A General Renovation Process: Kijima Models I and II Stock Policies Logistics Improvement Allocation Based on Availability Case Studies Sensitivity Analysis in Critical Equipment: The Distillation Plant Case Study in the Brazilian Oil and Gas Industry Systems Availability Enhancement Methodology: A Refinery Hydrotreating Unit Case Study The Nonlinear Optimization Methodology Model: The Refinery Plant Availability Optimization Case Study 256

4 Contents C~j*_J) CENPES II Project Reliability Analysis The Operational Effects in Availability. Thermal Cracking Plant RAM Analysis Case Study Partial Availability Based on System Age: The Drill Facility System Case Study High-Performance System Requires Improvements? Compressor Optimum Replacement Time Case Study RAM+L Analysis: Refinery Case Study 326 References Human Reliability Analysis Introduction Human Reliability Concepts Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction Operator Action Tree Accident Sequence Evaluation program Pre-Accident Analysis Methodology Post-Accident Analysis Methodology Human Error Assessment Reduction Technique Social Technical Analysis of Human Reliability Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Bayesian Networks Case Study THERP Case Study Application OAT Case Study Application SPAR-H Case Study Application HEART Case Study Application STAH-R Case Study Application Bayesian Network Application Methodologies Similarities Conclusion 417 References Reliability and Safety Processes Introduction Fault Tree Analysis Time Independent FTA Time Dependent FTA FTA as Qualitative Risk Analysis Support FTA as a Root Cause Analysis Tool Event Tree Analysis Time Independent Event Tree Analysis Time Dependent ETA Layers of Protection Analysis Independent Time LOPA Time Dependent LOPA 447

5 CED Contents Time Dependent LOPA as Qualitative Risk Analysis Support Safety Integrity Level Analysis Hazard Matrix Methodology Risk Graph Methodology Frequency Target Methodology Individual and Societal Risk Methodology Quantitative Approach to Defining Probability of Failure on Demand Bow Tie Analysis Time Independent Bow Tie Analysis Time Dependent Bow Tie Analysis Case Study 1: Applying LOPA Analysis to Decide Whether Risk Is Acceptable When Layers of Protection Are Not Available Case Study 2: Using RAMS Analysis Methodology to Measure Safety Process Effects on System Availability Safety Processes RAM Analysis Case Study Conclusions 495 References Reliability Management Reliability Management over the Enterprise Life Cycle Reliability Management Success Factors Successful Reliability Engineering Implementation Case Study Bayer Successful Organization in Reliability Engineer Implementation USNRC (United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission) ESReDA (European Safety and Reliability and Data Association) ESRA (European Safety and Reliability Association) SINTEF (Stiftelsen for Industriell og Teknisk Forskning) Reliability Engineer Teaching and Research: Successful Universities and Research Center Cases Karlsruhe Institute Technology Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur University of Strathclyde Business School University of Stavanger Final Thoughts 516 References 518 Index 519

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