Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights

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1 Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights London, Houston, Washington, New York, Portland, Calgary, Santiago, Bogota, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai, Moscow, Astana, Kiev, Porto and Johannesburg Market Reporting Consulting Events

2 Peak season ahead: Will railroads be prepared? Southwest Association of Rail Shippers, San Diego, California Todd Tranausky US transportation editor 9 October

3 Argus Publications Argus covers all aspects of transportation Argus Rail Business focuses on policy and regulation Publications Argus Coal Transportation and Argus Petroleum Transportation are commodity focused

4 Peak season plans

5 Peak season plans and railroad readiness Why is it a peak season? Why are regulators concerned? Will the railroads be ready?

6 Peak Season: Some background Board has asked for annual reports on rail service plans for the last decade Annual exercise more exhaustive in 2014, with more detailed responses from carriers Tied to intermodal peak season, but can provide general network insights

7 Focus on service issues Regulators focused on fall peak because of service complaints Shippers concerned about railroads ability to meet demand over winter Potential regulatory remedies could cause more harm than good Legislation introduced in House and Senate will be moved in some form during 2015 Unlikely to gain traction this year barring a major accident

8 Train speeds decline Slower trains lead to congestion, stressing crew and locomotive resources Asset shortfalls and congestion create longer turn times for shippers Some railroads taking as long as 50 days to turn a tank car for customers mph mph May 07 Mar 09 Jan 11 Nov 12 Sep 14 BNSF UP May 07 Mar 09 Jan 11 Nov 12 Sep 14 CSX NS

9 Freight and passenger problems Board focused not just on freight, but on passenger service as well STB unlikely to use emergency service order powers; focused on transparency and data reporting Disproportionate commodity or Amtrak focus could degrade the entire system

10 The road ahead

11 Volumes gaining, trains slowing Railroads struggling to cope with traffic gains as geographic shifts cause complications Unpredictable cycle times make shipper and network planning difficult Winter looms on the horizon and not much has been done to prevent further service meltdowns Service has stabilized at unacceptable levels in recent weeks

12 Western rails BNSF capital spending to double-track main route through the oil fields BNSF, CP look for solutions to joint infrastructure in the city Congestion causes carriers to look at stronger routing protocols around the city Glasgow subdivision double-track segment completed this summer; more to come Tower 55 project work causes significant work windows, reroutes

13 Eastern rails As carriers seek alternative interchange points, smaller yards take on more volume Congestion ripples into this complicated interchange terminal Winter snarls interchange, never fully recovered Track and signal projects over summer on primary route for loaded crude and ethanol for CSX CSX and NS struggle on routes from Toledo to Chicago

14 National rails

15 Are the railroads ready and will winter cooperate?

16 Railroads simply not prepared for peak, winter Railroad officials have said spring 2015 is the earliest shippers can hope for recovery Delays have not been solved, even with some highprofile projects coming online We will see the effects of routing protocols this winter and whether efforts to shift traffic were successful

17 Another winter like would be a disaster Additional traffic volumes would complicate service recovery Railroads have aggressively staffed ahead of winter, but are facing locomotive shortages There will be only one locomotive builder starting in 2014 and several railroads are heard to be significantly short of power

18 No easy answers Locomotive and crew planning requires long lead times that cannot be addressed overnight, esp. given constraints UP said earlier this year it has no surge/spare capacity left Sources said privately CSX was about 350 locomotives short of what it needed

19 Terminal dwell Trains are not able to get through yards in the northern tier Weather would deepen these issues Utilities already scrambling for coal hours hours Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 BNSF Galesburg UP Chicago Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 CSX Toledo NS Bellevue

20 Service issues cloud regulatory picture Railroads Regulators and legislators Captive, bulk shippers

21 Service woes could strengthen Congressional resolve Next year, Congress will act on at least one, possibly two pieces of legislation affecting railroads and shippers Ag interests can wield power if Republicans take control in the Senate Could bring change to the STB using service as a rationale

22 Board changes lead to potential action Two of three STB board members are relatively new, bringing new experience and ideas Could lead to more willingness to examine or try new alternatives to disputes, service woes Not yet certain that chairman will be renominated when term expires at year end

23 Conclusions Railroads face challenges meeting demand Winter will exacerbate those issues Problems could linger well into 2015, if not beyond

24 Any questions?

25 Todd Tranausky US transportation editor Washington, DC Copyright notice All intellectual property rights in this presentation and the information herein are the exclusive property of Argus and and/or its licensors and may only be used under licence from Argus. Without limiting the foregoing, by reading this presentation you agree that you will not copy or reproduce any part of its contents (including, but not limited to, single prices or any other individual items of data) in any form or for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of Argus. Trademark notice ARGUS, ARGUS MEDIA, the ARGUS logo, DEWITT, FMB, FUNDALYTICS, METAL-PAGES, JIM JORDAN & ASSOCIATES, JJ&A, ARGUS publication titles and ARGUS index names are trademarks of Argus Media Limited. Disclaimer All data and other information presented (the Data ) are provided on an as is basis. Argus makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of the Data or fitness for any particular purpose. Argus shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any party s reliance on the Data and disclaims any and all liability related to or arising out of use of the Data to the full extent permissible by law.

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