Economic Impacts of Debottlenecking Congestion in the Chinese Coal Supply Chain

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1 Economic Impacts of Debottlenecking Congestion in the Chinese Coal Supply Chain KEM China Bertrand Rioux, Axel Pierru, Fred Murphy, Philipp Galkin October 30, 2015 KEM China: Introduction and General Scheme KAPSARC is developing a modular integrated MCP* model of China s energy economy (KEM China Model). The goal of the project is to model government intervention and policy drivers impact China s energy economy. China Energy Model Production by: Basin Coal type Mining method Production Upstream: Coal Upstream: Oil Upstream: Gas Transportation: Railway Sea River Road (truck) Transportation Transformation: Power Steam coal Wind Solar Nuclear Hydro GT/CCGT Transformation: Refining Consumption: Industry Transport Chemicals Steel Construction Consumption: Commercial Consumption: Residential Urban Rural Production Accomplished Current focus Transportation Emissions Power Other Industries *Mixed Complementarity Problem 2

2 Why Transportation Matters for China s Coal Market China s coal consumption accounted for 69% of its primary energy in 2011 and half of global coal demand. Geographical mismatch between coal producing and consuming provinces Coal railway freight tripled in one decade Optimizing the coal supply chain with a linear program A static long-run model that finds efficient solutions minimizing total cost over one year Measure the congestion costs and model capacity expansion under exogenous demand assumptions Minimizing + 4

3 Model description Coal production submodule From IHS Coal Rush study 36 coal mining regions with data on: mining methods coal processing coal type q r u average calorific value producer type (private, SOE, TVE) mine region v s i washing yield, washed and raw mine gate costs Capacity constraints on mine expansion Import price set at each port of entry Coal supply Supply steps 5

4 7 Short Run Calibration scenario for 2011 Replicate the situation in 2011 calibrated with data from several sources IHS Coal Rush, Standard Chartered report, Transportation Statistic Yearbook Comparison with actual experience Capture railway congestion. Coal by rail match IHS CERA estimates (2.3 bil. tons). > 500 MMt trucked over long distances as reported by analysts Domestic production is 113 MMt lower than IHS estimate Partially explained by higher imports driven by inland congestion In reality heavy regulation on imports distorts optimal supply allocation 8

5 Market distortions introduced by railway tariffs Use coal railway tariffs to represent actual rail transport costs in 2011 Fixed Rate RMB/t Variable Rate RMB/t-km Construction & Electrification Surcharges RMB/t-km The surcharges are problematic for long-run scenarios represent sunk investment for existing capacity (accounting cost) apply equally to new and existing capacity New lines can achieve lower rates in a long-run optimization, and existing rail corridors are abandoned. We construct counterfactual scenarios minimizing total economic cost total annualized investment + operating costs (excluding surcharges) 9 Adjusting the Steam Coal Supply Chain in 2011: First Analysis We construct two counterfactual analyses in 2011 First analysis: what if the transportation network had been optimally adjusted to the coal supply and demand observed in 2011? We let the model add new capacity to the transportation infrastructure existing in 2011, accounting for annualized investment costs This would have generated in 2011 a potential annual saving of RMB 107 billion (16 billion USD) 10

6 Adjusting the Steam Coal Supply Chain in 2011: Second Analysis What if both mining and transportation capacity had been optimally adjusted to the coal demand observed in 2011? This would have generated a potential annual saving of RMB 228 billion (35 billion USD), along with a significant reduction of the delivered price of steam coal (model s marginal cost at demand nodes) 11 Impact to economic rents in long-run scenarios 1 st analysis Investment in Transportation Removing bottlenecks exposes inland mine regions to coastal demand where coal is still imported Producers arbitrage selling the last ton of coal locally and shipping it to the coast. Ends locational advantages for some inland consumers The increase in the marginal cost generates higher rents inland 2 nd analysis Investment in Production and Transportation Increased supply disconnects imports reducing the coastal prices Rents are reduced in a more complete systems view of the supply chain. 12

7 Infrastructure Built and its Impact on Logistical Flows 2 nd scenario rail investment cost: RMB 215 bil. (USD 33 bil.) Actual projects ( ), estimated investment : RMB 375 bil. (USD 58 bil.) 13 Using IRR to estimate the profitability of railway projects What is the economic value of some of the major rail projects? Use the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) as a measure discount rate that sets a projects net present value to zero Segment of Shanxi central-south corridor (line 2): 41.5 %. Western segment of Zhangtang (line 2): 27.5 %. Northern segment C : per-unit capital cost of the rail linkmenghua (line 3) -1.8 %. D: value of an incremental unit of capacity N: lifetime of the project in years for line 3 sum of operational benefits is lower than the investment cost 14

8 Using MCP to model China s regulated electricity market The electric power market is regulated by the state owned grid On-grid tariff paid to different generator types are capped The monopsonist utility can drive generators price down to zero profit. Cost minimization problem for state owned utility Generators negotiate a minimum price from the grid, guaranteeing a given utilization rate, capped by the tariffs. Depends on the annualized investment and operating costs 15 Formulation of regulated on-grid electricity tariffs Regulated grid prices + Monopsonist utility cost minimization s.t. Guarantee the operation receives price Demand is met: Assumption: each vertical load segment has the same width w: width in hours of each load step : amount of capacity of type i that operates in at least j load steps operating in load segment k amount of capacity added that will be used for at least j load steps : amount of non-dispatchable technology n added : cost per unit for technology n : price per that has to be paid for operating in at least j load segments. Note that if,. : demand in load step k in the load curve : be the amount of per unit of capacity of type n 16

9 Thank You! 17 Importance of Logistics in the Cost of Delivered Coal Domestic cost of coal in 2011 Average mine mouth 240 Average transportation cost 140 RMB/ton (5500 kcal/kg) Average transportation tariff Rail 0.14 Sea Truck 0.70 RMB/ton km Source: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research 18

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