Future Supply Chain Solutions Ltd

Transcription

1 IPO Review Rating matrix Rating : Unrated Issue Details Issue Opens Issue Closes 6-Dec-17 8-Dec-17 Issue Size ( Crore) 650 Fresh Issue 0 Offer for Sale 650 Price Band ( ) No of Shares on Offer (crore) 0.98 QIB (%) 50% Non-Institutional (%) 15% Retail (%) 35% Minimum lot size (No. of shares) 22 Composition & Objects of issue ( crore) Number of shares offered Future Enterprises Limited 1,956,914 Griffin Partners Limited 7,827,656 Total 9,784,570 The offer comprises an offer for sale of 0.98 crore equity shares (~ /share). The offer is entirely through an offer for sale and the Company will not receive any proceeds from the offer. Shareholding Pattern Pre-Issue Post-Issue Promoter & promoter group 57.4% 52.4% Public 42.6% 47.6% Valuation Summary (at 664 ;upper price band) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 P/E NA NA EV/EBITDA P/B ROCE ROE Research Analyst Bharat Chhoda bharat.chhoda@icicisecurities.com Ankit Panchmatia ankit.panchmatia@icicisecurities.com December 6, 2017 Established supply chain excellence Promoted by Future Enterprises, Future Supply Chain Solutions (FSC) offers third-party supply chain & logistics services including warehousing, distribution and other value added solutions. Given the logistics services provided to other promoter-listed Future entities, which includes Future Retail, Future Consumer and Future Lifestyle Fashions, FSC has established multi-sector expertise. As on September 2017, Future entities contribute ~70% of total revenues. FSC operates across three major business segments viz. contract logistics (warehousing, distribution & other value-added services), express logistics (point-to-point, less-than truck-load, time-definite transportation services) and temperaturecontrolled logistics (cold-chain warehousing, transportation and distribution solutions of perishable goods). FSC has demonstrated faster than industry growth rate posting revenue and EBITDA growth of 12% and 37% CAGR, respectively, in FY For H1FY18 revenues, EBITDA and PAT were at crore, 56.2 crore and 33.3 crore, respectively. Key business aspects Enhanced coverage through extensive network FSC operates an extensive network of 46 distribution centres, including four temperature-controlled (9529 pallets) distribution centres, 14 hubs and 106 branches (including franchisees and 12 of which are co-located on the same premises as FSC hubs). Moreover, coverage over pin codes across 29 states and five union territories creates a pan-india supply chain network for FSC. As on November 2017, FSC manages a total warehousing space of 4.2 million square feet. Further, it operates owned flotilla of 687 containerised vehicles, including 144 refrigerated (reefer) trucks. The widespread coverage enables FSC to provide its clients cost effective access to multiple destinations for booking and delivery of goods across India. Multi-speciality expertise enabling comprehensive supply chain solutions Over the decade, FSC has developed comprehensive logistics solutions for third-party logistics services through contract logistics, express logistics and temperature-controlled logistics. The company also provides end-to-end customised logistics and supply chain solutions that are created based on customers requirements. The logistics solutions are capable of catering to variety of customers including retail, fashion & apparel, automotive & engineering, food & beverage, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), e-commerce, healthcare, electronics & technology, home & furniture and ATMs. The wide range of activities enables FSC cross-selling opportunities deriving higher value proposition. Concerns Future Supply Chain Solutions Ltd Price band Promoter group contributing significant portion (70%) of total revenues Higher average receivable days (128 days - as on H1FY18) Declining revenues in express and cold chain business Priced at 57x (on higher band) on adjusted PAT At the upper band of 664, the stock is available at a P/E multiple of 57x FY17 on EPS of 11.7/share. Post listing, FSC would be able to capture a larger pie of the fast-growing 3PL market. However, we believe the steep valuations capture the benefits, which would accrue over a long gestation period. Hence, we have an UNRATED recommendation on the issue.

2 Exhibit 1: Key awards & achievements Awards & Achievements Year Retail & F/B Supply Chain Excellence Award 2007 Retail Manufacturing Supply Chain Excellence Award 2009 Retail Supply Chain Excellence Award 2009 Masterbrand Award 2012 Award for Use of Technology for Corporate Excellence 2014 Award for Effective retail through Supply Chain 2014 ICC Supply Chain Excellence Award - Emerging Player of the year 2014 Award for Exemplary Position in Supply Chain & Logistics Industrial & Retail Warehousing 2015 Supply Chain Service Provider of the Year Hi-Tech and FMCG 2015 Award for Operational Excellence in Cold Chain Warehousing 2016 Best Cold Chain 3PL Service Provider of the year 2017 Best 3PL Company of the year 2017 Industry Excellence in Supply Chain FMCG 2017 The Goa State - Best 3PL Company of the year 2017 Company Background Incorporated on March 8, 2006 as Future Logistic Solutions Ltd, the company was renamed Future Supply Chain Solutions (FSC), in The change in name was to convey the range of business solutions offered by FSC. Since then, the company has evolved as one of India s largest organised third-party supply chain and logistics service providers. Promoted by Future Enterprises Ltd, the other promoter related entities include Future Retail Ltd, Future Consumer Ltd and Future Lifestyle Fashion Ltd. While FSC s operations earlier evolved around providing supply chain and logistics solutions to its group companies, the company has gained expertise and diversified its customer base across various sectors outside of the group companies. FSC offers automated and IT-enabled warehousing, distribution and other logistics solutions to a wide range of customers. Comprehensive warehousing infrastructure, pan-india distribution network, hub-andspoke transportation model and automated technology systems support defines FSC s competitive positioning in the third party logistics (3PL) market. Offerings across varied sectors includes retail, fashion and apparel, automotive & engineering, food and beverage, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), e-commerce, healthcare, electronics and technology, home and furniture and ATMs. Exhibit 2: Integrated end to end service offerings to the customer Exhibit 3: FY17 revenue break-up Express Logistics 22% Temperature controlled Logistics 6% Other operations 2% Contract Logistics 70% The scope of logistics services that FSC provides varies based on the needs and requirements of customers, including its current supply chain processes, its outsourcing needs, its sector practices and the size & coverage of its distribution network across India. It operates in three distinct business segments: Contract logistics: warehousing, distribution and other value-added services; Express logistics: point-to-point, less-than truck-load, time-definite transportation services; and Temperature-controlled logistics: cold-chain warehousing, transportation solutions and distribution of perishable products Contract logistics 70% of overall revenues Contract logistics is the largest contributor (~70%) to overall revenues with a topline of crore. Contract logistics services create a customised supply chain solution, which includes infrastructure along with inventory management and distribution services. Key activities include warehousing, distribution and other value-added services. The distribution centres receive, store, track, manage and dispatch customer s inventory and provide end-to-end solutions. FSC operates 42 distribution Page 2

3 centres across India, covering ~3.80 million square feet (msf) of warehouse space. It also operates two dedicated distribution centres of its customers, covering ~0.37 msf of warehouse space. The distribution centre includes built-to-suit, multi-sector and multi-customer. The valueadded services include kitting and bundling, unit cartonisation and packaging solutions and other ad-hoc client specific requirements. Exhibit 4: Set-up under distribution centres Particulars Kulana, Haryana Burdwan, West Bengal Bhiwandi, Maharashtra (K4) Soukya Road, Bengaluru Size 304,614 sq. ft. 146,464 sq. ft. 208,080 sq. ft. 175,625 sq. ft bins and bins and bins and bins and Storage capacity pallet positions 2000 pallet positions pallet positions 2128 pallet positions WMS, SAP, TMS, VMS, Oracle and Technologies Used WMS, SAP, TMS, VMS WMS WMS, SAP, TMS Uniware Other Key Features * Built-to-suit with 12 meter height and ample parking * Location near major highways and the main consumption hubs of northern India * Built-to-suit with 8 meter height and ample parking * Located on National Highway- 2 and serves as main distribution location for east and northeast sector * Multi-customer facility * Located within prime warehouse area with ample parking * Located in between two major highways and easily accessible to the main consumption hubs of southern India, including short delivery turnaround time for stores in Bengaluru Page 3

4 Exhibit 5: Trend in revenue per sq ft ( per sq.ft) FY15 FY16 FY17 Key competencies of contract logistics: Implementing supply chain solutions, involving designing and modelling facility layouts, infrastructure and technological automation needs; Technology-enabled distribution centres across India Building heights ranging from 7-12 metre for certain distribution centres Generally, multi-user and built-to-suit based on a customer s supply chain requirements and needs Providing value added services such as kitting, bundling and promotional packing Supply chain system across India through distribution centres and delivery network For warehousing FSC charges its customers on (a) cost-plus mark-up, (b) fixed charge for a given capacity, with variable charges if additional capacity is utilised, (c) fixed rate per piece, carton or case with a minimum guaranteed throughput over a defined period or (d) fixed monthly billing based on an agreed monthly throughput and storage capacity. However, for value-added services, FSC charges on a fixed rate per kit, per label or per barcode, with a minimum guaranteed throughput over a defined period. Express logistics 22% of overall revenues Express logistics contributes (~22%) to overall revenues with a topline of crore. The segment provides distribution services using its huband-spoke network and containerised fleet of technology-enabled trucks. The distribution network consists of 14 hubs and 106 branches across India (including franchisees and 12 of which are co-located on the same premises as FSC s hubs), covering pin codes across 29 states and five union territories of India as of September The hubs serve as junctions where shipments from various hubs and branches arrive and are sorted and grouped based on their ultimate destinations and shipping routes. FSC express logistics services operated 233 containerised linehaul and feeder trucks, including 100 GPS-enabled trucks that are leased from third-party providers on a long-term basis. Line haul routes connect distantly spaced hubs using long-distance trucks that transport goods between hubs. Hubs and branches are generally geographically closer and connected by shorter feeder routes (that also connect branches together). Key competencies of contract logistics: Pan-India reach through hub-and-spoke model Real time, online visibility of shipments right from docket generation to point-of-delivery downloads to e-bills through transport management system Reduction in cost and time for customers through network design, route planning, load optimisation and vehicle re-engineering Hubs equipped with logistics tools, including pallets and forklifts to allow for movement of goods without damage Capability to set up a branch at new location based on its customers requirements Deployment of GPS-enabled vehicles real time tracking Customised packaging solutions for delivery of goods in unitised portions Page 4

5 Exhibit 6: Trend in revenue per pallet ( per pallet) FY FY17 Temperature-controlled logistics 6% of overall revenues Temperature-controlled logistics contributes (~6%) to overall revenues with a topline of 36.4 crore. The segment provides product-handling solutions for temperature-sensitive perishable products through temperature-controlled warehousing and transportation in its reefer trucks. FSC commenced its temperature-controlled logistics services in 2016 by entering into a long-term operating lease for operative assets, including refrigeration equipment, of Brattle Foods Pvt Ltd. Subsequently it acquired reefer vehicles from Laxman Logistics Pvt Ltd through a slump sale in As on September 2017, the segment operates four temperature-controlled distribution centres with 9289 pallets across India and has 327 leased pallets at third party distribution centres. Key competencies of Contract Logistics: Maintaining consistent temperature controls, frozen temperature range (-25 to 0 degrees Celsius), chilled temperature range (0 to +4 degrees Celsius), cold temperature range (+2 to +8 degrees Celsius) and cool temperature range (+8 to +25 degrees Celsius) Availability of electrical supply grids to minimise power outages Adherence to internal storage and transportation policies; FSSAIcompliant Page 5

6 Key financials: Story in charts Exhibit 7: Revenues increased at CAGR of 12.2% over FY13-FY17 Exhibit 8: Revenue bifurcation segment-wise crore FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1FY FY15 FY16 FY17 Contract Logistics Express Logistics Temperature controlled Logistics Exhibit 9: EBITDA growth of 37% over FY13-17 Exhibit 10: PAT grows more than 10x in FY13-17 crore FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1FY18 EBITDA EBITDA Margin % crore FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1FY18 Exhibit 11: Debt to equity ratio continues below 0.5 (x) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Exhibit 12: Return ratio trend % FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 RoE RoCE Page 6

7 Es Key Strengths Extensive network of facilities FSC s core competencies are its widespread network of distribution centres and delivery network across India. As of September 2017, FSC run its contract logistics operations through 42 distribution centres across India, covering ~3.80 million square feet (msf) of warehouse space and also operate two distribution centres of its customers, covering ~0.37 msf of warehouse space. According to the Alvarez & Marsal India Pvt Ltd (A&M) report, FSC s distribution centre at the multi-modal international hub airport at Nagpur (MIHAN) which covers ~0.37 msf of warehousing space is one of the largest and most highly automated distribution centres in India. The facility has housing a high-speed cross-belt sorter system, which is the first of its kind in India, with a sorting capacity of ~2000 cases per hour. FSC also utilises a hub-and-spoke distribution model comprising 14 hubs and 106 branches across India (including franchisees and 12 of which are co-located on the same premises as FSC hubs), covering pin codes across 29 states and five union territories as of September Moreover, FSC operated ~687 containerised vehicles, including 257 GPS-enabled vehicles of which 144 are refrigerated (reefer) owned trucks. FSC also operate 9616 pallets as a part of company s temperature-controlled warehousing service. Exhibit 13: Operating unique hub & spoke model Page 7

8 Diverse customer base across many sectors FSC s customer base spans many sectors, including retail, fashion and apparel, automotive and engineering, food and beverage, FMCG, e- commerce, healthcare, electronics and technology, home & furniture and ATMs. Apart from promoter and certain group companies, FSC manages a diversified customer base in each of the sectors, which includes Indian corporate groups and multinational companies. Some marquee names include Pepe Jeans, Bakers Circle, Clarks, HPL Electric & Power Ltd, Pepperfry, Surya Roshni, TTK Prestige, VERO MODA, ONLY, M/s Asandas & Sons (HyFun Foods), Reckitt Benckiser, Amway India, Kellogg, Mondelez and Wildcraft. Exhibit 14: Revenue attributable to other than promoter and group companies Sector Percentage of revenue from operations (%) Fashion & Apparel 23.6 Automotive & Engineering 22.3 Food & Beverage 15.3 FMCG 7.3 E-Commerce 6.7 Healthcare 6.1 Electronics & Technology 6.0 Home & Furniture 5.6 ATMs 4.3 Others 2.7 Total 100 Given its experience and infrastructure suited to serve a wide range of sectors, FSC capitalises on multiple opportunities in the logistics industry in India. Over the years, FSC has built strong customer relations, demonstrating the value proposition it provides and positioning itself for further growth. Of the top 20 customers (other than promoter and certain group companies), which accounted for ~20.1% of its revenue from operations in 2017, nine have been with FSC for over five years. For 2017, 10 largest customers (other than promoter and certain group companies) accounted for 14.8% of the overall revenue from operations. GST A major driver for future growth Traditionally, logistics has been operationally challenged by complicated transport networks, high coordination costs across supply chain, inadequate infrastructure and multi-point taxation. As a result, logistics players operated using hub-and-spoke in most states to avoid state VATgoods directly supplied to dealers attracted state VAT, whereas transfer from warehouse is treated as stock transfer. Also, most warehouses operated below capacity. Implementation of GST is expected to improve performance of logistics across all sub-segments. Some of the expected benefits are as follows: Idle time for truck fleet is expected to reduce 20% due to elimination/rationalisation of check post between states (more than 20 states have already removed check posts) Resources spent on paperwork for transport companies is likely to reduce significantly. Currently, the industry spends 50-60% of resources on documents related to tax compliance and deposit of interstate sales tax Elimination of octroi is expected to reduce congestion and improve productivity for logistics industry for distribution in large cities Warehouse infrastructure is expected to improve physical infrastructure and scale of operations Page 8

9 Key risks and concerns Business concentration risk The parentage of Future group has allowed FSC to develop expertise around key logistics vertical. Future entities (FSC is dependent on the Future Entities (Future Retail Ltd, Future Consumer Ltd. and Future Lifestyle Fashions Ltd) continues to remain FSC s key customers. The company s Nagpur distribution centre primarily caters to services provided to Future entities, which would be unable to easily substitute for other customers. Following this, investments in cross-belt sorter system would not be recovered resulting in higher losses. Further, FSC are also reliant on various sectors in which Future entities operate. If any of those sectors suffer a downturn, for any reason, FSC operations and its financial performance would be adversely affected. Moreover, if the reputation of any Future entities is significantly impaired, it could also adversely affect FSC s reputation, business, resulting in loss of operations and deterioration of financial performance. Higher competition from global, domestic third-party logistics players Given the fragmentation in the industry, FSC is prone to competition from certain regional logistics services providers and the unorganised sector, some of which have market presence in their respective areas of operation. Also, e-commerce companies are investing in their captive arms (E-Kart, ATS, etc). Their focus has been on rapidly expanding in the warehouses or e-fulfilment centres (EFC) around areas with high volumes such as metros, Tier-I cities etc. and undertake deliveries to consumers. Increased competition may reduce the growth of its customer base and result in higher selling and promotional expenses. Increased competition and higher private equity funding in the unlisted space could potentially lead to a reduction in FSC market share resulting lower revenues, reduced profit margins. Higher credit period Vulnerable to defaults FSC extends credit to certain customers for a long period of time. There is no assurance that they will be able to recover outstanding amounts in part, full or at all. They have and may continue to have high levels of outstanding receivables. For FY17, the company s trade receivables were 216 crore, which accounted for 38.6% of its revenue from operations. The resultant average outstanding receivable days was at 141 days, which is significantly higher than its competitors. Declining performance in express, temperature-controlled businesses Revenues from express logistics services declined 9.7% from crore in FY15 to crore in FY16, and further declined 10.1% to crore in FY17. Although the decline in revenue was on account of optimising its customer base to focus on providing high-margin services, FSC may be unable to increase its revenues in the segments. Further, the temperature-controlled logistics operations had a loss of 1 crore at gross profit level in FY17. With increase in capex in the same, the losses in the same business could widen impacting the overall business performance. Page 9

10 [ Financial summary Profit and loss statement Crore (Year-end March) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Net Sales Growth (%) (6.6) Cost of Logistic Services Employee Expenses Other Expenses Total Operating Expenditure EBITDA EBITDA Margin Interest Depreciation Other Income PBT (2.5) Exeptional Expense Total Tax Profit After Tax (4.2) Cash flow statement Crore (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Profit/(Loss) after taxation Add: Depreciation Net Increase in Current Assets Net Increase in Current Liabilities CF from operating activities (Inc)/dec in Investments (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets Others CF from investing activities Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capital Inc / (Dec) in Loan Others CF from financing activities Net Cash flow Opening Cash Closing Cash Balance sheet Crore (Year-end March) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus Total Shareholders funds Total Debt Deferred Tax Liability Non Current Liabilties Source of Funds Net Block (Including Intangible asset) Capital WIP Net Fixed Assets Investments Inventory Cash Debtors Loans & Advances & Other CA Total Current Assets Creditors Provisions & Other CL Total Current Liabilities Net Current Assets LT L& A, Other Assets Application of Funds Key ratios (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Per share data ( ) EPS Cash EPS BV Cash Per Share Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA margins PBT margins Net Profit margins Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE Valuation Ratios (x) P/E NA NA EV / EBITDA Market Cap / Revenues Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios Debt / Equity Debt/EBITDA Current Ratio Quick Ratio Source Page 10

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