F MI SUMMIT. Understanding the Trucking Labor Market. Dr. Kristen Monaco

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1 F MI SUMMIT Understanding the Trucking Labor Market Dr. Kristen Monaco

2 Agenda The Trucking Industry Deregulation s impact on industry structure Evolution of the labor market Labor Market Conditions and Challenges Safety and Hours of Service Discussion 2

3 How many trucking companies are there in the U.S.? , , , It is typical of an economist to ask a question with no true answer. 3

4 Modal Share, 2007 Share of Value Share of Ton-Miles 1.6% 7.2% 3% 1% 9% 2.2% 13.4% 1% 6% 40% 3.7% 71.3% 40% Truck Rail Air (incl. Truck and Air) Parcel (incl. USPS) Truck and Rail Truck and Water Rail and Water Truck Rail Air (incl. Truck and Air) Parcel (incl. USPS) Truck and Rail Truck and Water Rail and Water 4

5 The Trucking Industry Trucking as a heterogeneous market How do we measure trucking? Who owns the freight? Employment relationship? Type of freight hauled? Length of Haul? Shipment Size? No singular source of data 5

6 Who Owns the Freight? Private Carriage vs. For-Hire For-hire: Primary business is hauling freight Private carriage: Primary business is not freight transportation, but have a fleet If we look only at trucking industry by SIC or NAICS code, we are missing a big chunk of trucking activity 6

7 Which of the following best describes your company? 1. We have a fleet of trucks that handles all of our transportation needs. 2. We do not have a fleet of trucks. 3. We have our own fleet and also contract with for-hire trucking companies. 7

8 Who Owns the Freight? Data Set Measure Share For-Hire 2007 Commodity Flow Survey By Value 59.5% By Miles 46% By Ton-Miles 78.6% MCMIS, 2007 Number of Firms 41% (plus 8% both ) ATA, 2005 By Weight 49% By Expenditure 45% 8

9 Length and Shipment Size? 2007 Economic Census (For-Hire Only) NAICS Code Segment Number of Establishments Annual Revenue (Millions) Paid Employees 484 Truck transportation 118,507 $217,895 1,478, General freight trucking 65,414 $142, , General freight trucking, local 27,263 $21, , ; General freight trucking, local, truckload 19,652 $15, , ; General freight trucking, local, LTL 7,611 $5,467 51, General freight trucking, long distance 38,151 $121, , General freight trucking, long distance, truckload General freight trucking, long distance, LTL 30,228 $83, ,220 7,923 $37, , Specialized freight trucking 53,093 $75, , Used household and office goods moving 8,513 $14, , Specialized freight, except used goods, trucking, local Specialized freight, except used goods, trucking, long distance 33,351 $30, ,364 11,229 $30, ,453 9

10 Length and Shipment Size? 2007 Economic Census, Concentration Ratios NAICS Code Segment C4 C8 484 Truck transportation General freight trucking, long distance, truckload General freight trucking, long distance, LTL Specialized freight, except used goods, trucking, long distance

11 Economic Regulation Motor Carrier Act of 1935 Primarily impacting for-hire trucking Entry restrictions Published rates Economic rents in for-hire industry shared with labor Firms tended not to specialize operations Motor Carrier Act of 1980 Entry of new, smaller carriers Dissolution of rents, impacting firms and labor 11

12 Number of Firms Class I Railroads Interstate Motor Carriers NA NA NA 216, , , , ,928 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics 12

13 Truck-Rail Comparison Productivity Index Trucking Rail Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics 13

14 Truck-Rail Comparison Labor Indices RR Labor Compensation Index RR Employment Index Trucking Labor Compensation Index Trucking Employment Index 20 0 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics 14

15 Trucking Labor Market Heavy Truck Driver Employment By Industry Industry (NAICS Code) Employment Share of Total Hourly Mean Wage Mining (21--22) 30, % Construction (23--24) 81, % Manufacturing (31--34) 126, % Wholesale Trade (42--43) 195, % Retail Trade (44--46) 45, % Transportation and Warehousing (48--50) 872, % Truck Transportation (484000) 761, % General Freight Trucking (484100) 551, % Specialized Freight Trucking (484200) 209, % Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services (56--57) 81, % Total 1,508,620 Source: Occupational Employment Statistics, BLS 15

16 Driver Demographics Union 47.3% 40.6% 24.1% 20.5% 19.4% 17% 16.7% 12% Hispanic 4.9% 5.2% 5.1% 7.3% 7.7% 11.7% 11.1% 13.4% Black 9.8% 11.3% 11.5% 11% 10.7% 11.5% 10.1% 11.2% White 89.8% 87.4% 86.6% 86.6% 85.4% 85.7% 82.3% 84.7% Age Distribution Mean th Pct Median th Pct Source: Current Population Survey 16

17 Trends in Earnings $840 Real Weekly Wages (in 2011 Dollars) $820 $800 $780 $760 $740 $720 $

18 Labor Market Challenges Demographics Aging labor force Training? Churning/Turnover Problem Low levels of firm attachment, particularly in TL 2005: 135% 2007: 117% 2010 (Q1): 39% 2011 (Q1): 75% 2011 (Q4): 88% 18

19 Labor Market Challenges A perfect storm? Increased demand Economic recovery HOS changes Decreased supply CSA Other factors affecting margins Fuel prices 19

20 J-90 A-90 M-91 O-91 M-92 D-92 J-93 F-94 S-94 A-95 N-95 J-96 J-97 A-97 M-98 O-98 M-99 D-99 J-00 F-01 S-01 A-02 N-02 J-03 J-04 A-04 M-05 O-05 M-06 D-06 J-07 F-08 S-08 A-09 N-09 J-10 J-11 A-11 Challenges: Increased Demand 120 Freight Transportation Services Index Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics 20

21 Challenges: HOS Changes Present 2013 Driving time max 10 hours 11 hours 11 hours Total work time max 15 hours 14 hours (hard stop) 14 hours (hard stop) Off-duty min 8 hours 10 hours 10 hours Maximum total 60 in 7days or 70 in 8 days 60 in 7days or 70 in 8 days 60 in 7days or 70 in 8 days Rolling hours or restart? rolling 34 hour restart 34 hour restart with at least two periods between 1-5am and only once per week Old Rules: If start work 7am on a Monday, work 10 hours, and exhaust total work hours (60) by Friday at noon, then cannot start work again until Monday at 7am Present Rules: Same parameters, but eligible to start work again on Saturday at 10pm with a fresh 60 hours. New Rules: Would not be able to start again until Sunday at 5am since need two periods off between 1am and 5am. 21

22 Challenges: HOS - EOBR 22

23 Does your company use the Safety Measurement System (SMS) to evaluate the carriers you use? 1. Yes 2. No 23

24 Challenges: CSA Compliance, Safety Accountability, 2010 Attempt to coordinate information between FMCSA and state enforcement Data on several safety measures Safety Measurement System Used to determine which carriers should be focus of inspections/candidates for losing authority Publicly available 24

25 Trucking Safety 1.8 Fatalities Per 100 Million Miles Cars Heavy Trucks

26 Trucking Safety 700 Injuries and Crashes Per 100 Million Miles Traveled Car Crash Rate Truck Crash Car Injury Rate Truck Injury Rate

27 Challenges: Margins 6 Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Prices (Real 2011 Dollars) Source: US Energy Information Administration 27

28 Summary Trucking is highly segmented, with limited competition across segments, but considerable competition within most segments. Low margins results in pressure to achieve efficiency Pay for long haul most often by the mile Drive more Safety implications Little/no reward for firm-level attachment Considerable churning 28

29 Summary Impending Challenges Increasing labor demand Decreasing labor supply Inevitably will lead to higher wage rates and higher freight rates 29

30 If trucking rates increased on the order of 10%, would your company rely more on rail for domestic shipments? 1. Yes 2. No 30

31 Questions? Kristen Monaco

32 Thank You! Up Next Aligning Fleet Strategies to Freight Markets Mike Eaton

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