CONTAINER TRADE FLOWS AND TRADE LANE CHANGES
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1 CONTAINER TRADE FLOWS AND TRADE LANE CHANGES International Trade Symposium Norfolk VA May 9, 2013
2 Today s Speaker Hayes H. Howard CEO, BlueWater Reporting 2
3 Agenda Introduction About BlueWater Reporting Changing Trade Lanes & Shipping Patterns The Mega Vessel Era Is Upon Us Changing Carrier Alliances/Emergence of the G6 Panama Canal Expansion/Suez Canal Growth Carrier Financials & Financing Q&A
4 IMF forecasts 3.3% growth for
5 Output, Prices and Jobs 5
6 Today s Market Changing Trade Lanes 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Import Growth Weighted Average import growth: 3.16% Russia USA China Japan South Korea Taiwan East Africa South Africa Australasia Stronger imports & above global average Stronger exports & above global average North Africa South America Levant & Caucasus South East Asia Central America Caribbean Weighted Average export growth: 2.86% South Asia Western Europe Eastern & Central Europe Export growth -10% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Source: Seabury Cargo Advisory. Gulf Stronger exports Stronger imports West Africa 6
7 Today s Market Changing Trade Lanes Ocean Trade Growth Total international ocean trade growth 2.6% Source: Seabury Cargo Advisory. 7
8 Containerized Trade Projections 2013 From Containerization International, March
9 Today s Market Overcapacity Endemic overcapacity likely to persist for through 2013 at least. Eastbound transpacific capacity rose around 7.5 percent in Westbound Asia Europe capacity rose around 3 percent in Weakened demand on traditional key trades Transpacific and Asia-Europe. No sizable trades where carriers can retreat to recapture revenue growth. 9
10 Mega-Vessel Era Carriers consistently seeking to improve their economy of scale. Persistent investment in larger ships to achieve lower per-slot operating costs. Means ports have to be able to handle larger vessels and more cargo than ever before. Larger vessels will likely make fewer calls, going to bus stop rotations.
11 Mega-Vessel Era Deliveries % 5% 5% 26% 8% 9% 80% 15% 60% 14% 23% 29% 13% 27% Less than 4,800 4,800-7,019 8,000-9,700 10,000-12,600 40% 20% 8% 22% 32% 12% 11% 13,000-14,000 16,000-16, % 2% 5% Delivery Approx 1.7 mil TEU 3% 10% Delivery Approx 1.1 mil TEU 19% Delivery Approx 0.6 mil TEU Source: Clarkson Research Services 11
12 Changing Carrier Alliances The G6 and other new partnerships Green Alliance: Cosco, Hanjin, K Line, Yang Ming Evergreen Grand Alliance: Hapag Lloyd, OOCL, NYK New World Alliance: APL, Hyundai, MOL MSC CMA-CGM Maersk Line Circle sizes represent comparative sizes of the carriers by capacity. Bands represent new alliances/co-operations. 12
13 Carrier Alliance Share Alliance share includes Services operated by Alliances and services with an alliance carrier as a dominate operator, plus services operated by Maersk Line, MSC, CMA CGM and Evergreen Line 13
14 Changing Carrier Alliances Net Impacts More control by fewer decision makers. Greater choice for shippers. Potential for improved service levels remains TBD. Probably higher rates also TBD. 14
15 Managing Capacity Carriers are becoming more efficient at constraining capacity as new ships come on line. But can also quickly increase capacity if demand warrants. Asia to North America 4/1/2012 4/1/2013 Increase Vessel Count % Vessel TEUs 2,462,942 2,659,127 8% Average Vessel Size 5,675 5,460-4% Weekly Vessel Capacity 316, , % Weekly Available Capacity 297, , % Carriers exercise greater level over control over capacity and ultimately rate levels. 15
16 Managing Capacity or Not Carriers are becoming more efficient at constraining capacity as new ships come on line. But can also quickly increase capacity if demand warrants. Asia to North America 5/1/2012 5/1/2013 Increase Vessel Count % Vessel TEUs 2,507,972 2, % Average Vessel Size 5,752 5,714-1% Weekly Vessel Capacity 316, ,575 9% Weekly Available Capacity 298, ,265 8% Carriers exercise greater level over control over capacity and ultimately rate levels. 16
17 Panama Canal Expansion Panama Canal expansion completion delayed until East Coast ports have been focusing on meeting a 2015 deadline to handle larger ships. ACP claims max vessel capacity through the Canal could be 14K TEU more likely 8-10K vessels will transit the canal. Canal tolls will likely increase significantly with unknown impact on shipper s rates. More likely extra capacity through the Canal will have largest impact on rates. 17
18 Challenges to Panama Routes Today Carriers claim Panama services are unattractive /unprofitable. Mega-vessels call the US West Coast not the East. Bunker fuel prices double while Panamax vessels are inefficient double whammy. Canal tolls have increased steadily 2X since
19 Panama/Suez Transit Comparison Norfolk via Panama Norfolk via Suez Nautical Miles Days Nautical Miles Days Singapore 9, ,692 No services Yantian 11, , Shanghai 12, , Busan 12,495 No services 10, Tokyo 12,902 No services 9, Showing fastest direct transit time 19
20 Growing Suez Share Asia to East Coast North American Trade 20
21 Where Are The Profits? Top publicly-traded lines lost nearly $6 billion in Only two in the black. The industry has lost money from operations over 5 years to In general carriers suffering from weak cash flow, high debt loads. Industry probably in the black for 2012, but results vary widely: In the black: CMA-CGM, Maersk, OOCL, China Shipping, etc. In the red: COSCO, APL, Zim, etc. 21
22 Liner Profitability Source: American Shipper research 22
23 Carrier Margins Suffer in 2011 Source: American Shipper research 23
24 Altman Z-Score for Ocean Carriers Moderate Distress Severe Distress FQ FQ FQ FQ FQ Source: Capital IQ, analysis by AlixPartners 24
25 Q&A Thank you for your attention. I would like to take your questions now. For more information, you can contact me at: Hayes Howard hh@shippers.com 25
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