SEETAC South East European Transport Axis Cooperation

Transcription

1 SEETAC South East European Transport Axis Cooperation WP5 MOBILITY REPORT IN THE SEETAC STUDY AREA Dissemination level: PPs WP: WP5 Author: A.U.Th. (ERDF PP9) Status: Final Date: July 2012 File name: 2012_07_Mobility_Report.doc SEETAC Project Central European Initiative - CEI Via Genova 9, Trieste (Italy) Tel: ; Fax: info@seetac.eu

2 DISCLAIMER This document is property of the SEETAC project and its partners. In any case if you are interested to extract some pages from this Publication you have to mention the source: SEE/A/071/3.3/X SEETAC project, Transnational Cooperation Programme South East Europe. The publication/document reflects the author s views and the Managing Authority is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Without derogation from the generality of the information of this document, the Managing Authority, the project partners, their officers, employees, agents and contractors shall not be liable for any direct or indirect or consequential loss or damage caused by or arising from any information or inaccuracy or omission herein and shall be not liable for any use of the information contained in this document. I

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS... 2 TABLE OF TABLES... 3 TABLE OF FIGURES Introduction Purpose and objective Methodology activities Historical review of the European Transport Strategy for the South East Europe region and the Western Balkans Corridors, Strategic and Core Networks in the South East Europe Core Networks for the South East Europe and the Western Balkans Enlargement and revised framework for transport infrastructure planning in neighbouring countries/regions in the South Eastern Priority Axis Current EU Transport Policy for the Networks in the South East Europe National Transport Plans aligned with the EU Policy and criteria for project prioritisation Assessment of existing and forecasted situation Existing transport supply Roads Railways Existing transport demand and relation with supply Roads Railways Maritime and Inland waterways Future transport demand Review of studies and projects relevant to transport in the region of SEE and EU SEETAC forecast Do Nothing 2020 scenario Do Something 2020 Scenario II

4 Roads Railways Inland waterways SEETAC priority projects Conclusions and perspectives for the SEE Transport Network BIBLIOGRAPHY TABLE OF TABLES Table 1 Scenario Outcomes related to Do Nothing Scenario Table 2 Inland Waterway projects indicated by SEETO Table 3 SEETAC priority projects list III

5 TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1 TEN-T projects completed in 2011 (Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, 2011)... 6 Figure 2 EU-27 Core Network to be completed in 2030 (Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, 2011)... 6 Figure 3 TEN-T projects completed in 2011 and EU-27 Core Network to be completed in 2030 (Directorate- General for Mobility and Transport, 2011)... 7 Figure 4 Core Network: Inland waterways and ports (European Commission, 2011)... 8 Figure 5 Core Network: Railways (freight), ports and rail-road terminals (RRT) (European Commission, 2011)... 8 Figure 6 Core Network: Railways (passengers) and airports (European Commission, 2011)... 8 Figure 7 Core Network: Roads, ports, rail-road terminals (RRT) and airports (European Commission, 2011) 8 Figure 8 Comprehensive Network (WB region): Inland waterways and ports (European Commission, 2011) 9 Figure 9 Comprehensive Network (WB region): Railways, ports and rail-road terminals (RRT) (European Commission, 2011)... 9 Figure 10 Comprehensive Network (WB region): Railways and airports (European Commission, 2011) Figure 11 Comprehensive Network (WB region): Roads, ports, rail-road terminals and airports (European Commission, 2011) Figure 12 SEETO Comprehensive Road Network (SEETO) Figure 13 SEETO Comprehensive Rail Network (SEETO) Figure 14 SEETO Comprehensive Network Airports, Inland Waterways and Seaports (SEETO) Figure 15 SEETO Comprehensive Network - Road Priority Projects (SEETO, 2011) Figure 16 SEETO Comprehensive Network - Railway Priority Projects (SEETO, 2011) Figure 17 SEETO Comprehensive Network - Airports, Seaports and Inland Waterways Priority Projects (SEETO, 2011) Figure 18 SEETAC study Road (left) and Railway (right) Networks (Sistemi Operativi S.r.l.; Central European Initiative (C.E.I.), 2012) Figure 19 SEETAC Road Network links/nodes (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 20 Typology of PECs Roads in SEE (% of the total length) Figure 21 SEETAC Road network links capacity (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 22 Typology of PECs Railway Lines in SEE (% of the total length) IV

6 Figure 23 SEETAC Railway lines capacity (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 24 Hourly average light cars traffic on SEETAC Road network per link (light vehicles/ hour) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 25 Hourly average trucks traffic on SEETAC Road network per link (heavy vehicles/ hour) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 26 Level of Service of SEETAC Road network per link (Daily traffic/ Capacity ratio per link) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 27 Daily passenger traffic on SEETAC Rail network per link (travellers/ day) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 28 Daily freight transport on SEETAC Rail network per link (tonnes/ day) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 29 Level of Service of SEETAC Rail network per link (Daily traffic/ Capacity ratio per link) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 30 Daily maritime and transhipment freight traffic (tonnes/ day) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 31 Road freight flows on the Pan-European Network (forecast 2020) (NEA Transport research and training, 2005) Figure 32 Rail freight flows on the Pan-European Network (forecast 2020) (NEA Transport research and training, 2005) Figure 33 Road traffic loads on the Pan-European Network (forecast 2030) (Petersen, et al., 2009) Figure 34 Rail passenger traffic loads on the Pan-European Network (forecast 2030) (Petersen, et al., 2009) Figure 35 Rail traffic loads in tonnes on the Pan-European Network (forecast 2030) (Petersen, et al., 2009) 31 Figure 36 Traffic flows in 2020 in Trans-European North-South Motorway (TEM) Network (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2011) Figure 37 Bottlenecks in Trans-European North-South Motorway (TEM) Network (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2011) Figure 38 Passenger flows in 2020 in Trans-European North-South Railway (TER) Network (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2011) Figure 39 Freight flows in 2020 in Trans-European North-South Railway (TER) Network (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2011) Figure 40 Bottlenecks in 2020 in Trans-European North-South Railway (TER) Network (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2011) V

7 Figure 41 Modelling elaboration and simulated allocation concerning the scenario Do Nothing (level of service Average Daily Traffic / Capacity Max) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 42 Scenario 2020 Infrastructure interventions in the road network per type of intervention (left) and part of the network (right) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 43 Scenario 2020 Infrastructure interventions in the rail network per type of intervention (left) and part of the network (right) (right) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 44 SCENARIO 2020 level of service of SEETAC Road network per link (level of service capacity) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 45 SCENARIO 2020 improvement of level of service of SEETAC Road network per link (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 46 SCENARIO 2020 Efficiency Indicators per Country Average trip time for cars (left) and trucks (right) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 47 SCENARIO 2020 Efficiency Indicators per Country Average commercial spped for cars (left) and trucks (right) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 48 SCENARIO 2020 level of service of SEETAC Rail network per link (level of service capacity) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 49 SCENARIO 2020 improvement of level of service of SEETAC Rail network per link (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 50 Distribution of SEETAC projects by transport mode (left) and country (right) Figure 51 Distribution of SEETAC projects by transport mode, country and by country status (EUMember states and Western Balkans) in number of projects Figure 52 Distribution of SEETAC projects by transport mode and within TEN-T and SEETO projects (number of projects) Figure 53 Status of SEETAC projects Figure 54 Distribution of SEETAC projects cost by transport mode and country in million EUR Figure 55 Distribution of SEETAC projects by their need for investments in number of projects (left) and amount of investments (right) Figure 56 Distribution of SEETAC projects with investment needs by their maturity in number of projects (left) and amount of investments (right) Figure 57 Distribution of investment needs of SEETAC projects by country in million EUR Figure 58 Distribution of investment needs of SEETAC projects by country and transport mode in million EUR VI

8 1. Introduction 1.1. Purpose and objective This report on the Mobility in the South East Europe (SEE) study area has been elaborated, according to the Work Package 5 description of activities in the approved Application Form Financial Plan focused on selected pilot projects of the South East European Transport Axis Cooperation (SEETAC) project. The purpose of the document is to describe the development of the mobility, transport supply and demand in the countries participating in the SEETAC project, after the completion of SEETAC database management system, the assessment of existing infrastructure and traffic, the traffic growth and the infrastructure needed both for freight and passengers transport. More precisely the purpose of this report is to summarise and exploit the results of the reports of the previous Work Packages (WP3 and WP4) regarding demand (existing traffic and forecasts) and supply (existing and planned infrastructures, their situation and operation, motorisation and trends). The overall objective of this report is the identification of the priority multi-modal projects with positive impact on the growth of the area that could be implemented by using the identified public and private financial resources specified later in a Financial Plan that will be elaborated in the shortly expected phase, finalizing the WP5. The structure of the report is shaped as follows: The first chapter is an introducing one, where the purpose, the objective of and the methodology of elaboration of the report are presented. In the second chapter the framework of the projects definition, i.e. European Transport Strategy in the region of the SEE is presented. In this aspect, initially the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) and the Pan-European Corridors (PECs) in the region are described and briefly the evolution of the strategy in SEE and the defined the South East Europe Strategic and Core Networks concerning the Western Balkans countries. Finally, the enlargement and revised framework for transport infrastructure planning in EU and neighbouring countries/regions and the South Eastern Priority Axis are presented. In the third chapter, it is presented the current European Union (EU) Transport Policy for the Transport Networks in the Member States (MSs), the Candidate Countries, the Potential Candidate Countries and the neighbouring countries, i.e. for the countries of various status participating in the SEETAC project. In these terms, the contribution of the South East Europe Transport Observatory (SEETO), the latest legislative proposal for the development of the TEN-T and the significance of their synergy within the SEETAC project are described. In the fourth chapter are presented some findings from the examination of the countries National Transport Plans in the SEE region related to their alignment with the EU Transport Policy. In the fifth chapter, the existing situation at the Transport Network under study is assessed, incorporating results of the WP3 s and WP4 s Reports concerning the current supply and demand, the offered Level of Service and the identified existing bottlenecks. In the sixth chapter findings of other studies and projects relevant to transport in the region of the SEE and the EU are presented. More specifically, the most important of the relevant studies reviewed are TEN-CONNECT, EUN STAT, SEETO Multi-Annual Plans, TEM and TER. Moreover, in this chapter the outcomes of the SEETAC transport model (WP4) concerning the 1

9 forecasted traffic, the future Level of Service, the environmental evaluation of projects underway for implementation are presented. In the sixth chapter are presented the list of priority projects within the SEETAC, as they have emerged from the previous activities within the SEETAC project, but also according to the findings of the studies concerning the forecasted traffic at the network under investigation. In the last chapter (the seventh) are extrapolated the conclusions and perspectives for the SEE Transport Network of the Mobility Report Methodology activities The methodology, for the development of this report, was initially the exploitation of official documents, studies and projects in the region under research, together with their maps and information databases, where available. Regarding the Commission official documents on the European Transport Strategy and Policy which were exploited, these included Regulations, Decisions, Proposals and Community guidelines for the development of the TEN-T, the Pan- European Core and Comprehensive Network and all the distinct transport sub-sectors. Finally, as far as the National Plans of countries participating in the SEETAC project are concerned, these either originated from the official documents provided by SEETAC in Ministerial partners level or preceded from research on other sources. Namely, apart from the official documents submitted by the Ministerial Project Partners, an investigation took place on country reports and studies on strategic evaluation on transport priorities and other publications on the official websites of the Ministries responsible for Transport. Moreover, in the aspect of the incorporation of the outcomes of the Technical Reports of the previous WPs (WP3 and WP4), these were studied and analysed after the application of logical checks, where it was necessary, and the results are exploited in this report on Trans- and Pan- European Rail and Road Corridor level. The analysis also focused on cross-bording sections, on sections around the largest cities of the Network and on specific nodes with maritime and inland waterway ports and multimodal nodes. Furthermore, the report incorporates information which arised from the meetings with the representatives of the European Commission (EC), the relevant representatives of the involved countries and the project Lead Partner. In the occasion of related International Conferences, such as the SEETAC meetings, the South East Europe Infrastructure Forum and the 3 rd Annual Ministerial SEETAC Meeting, organised in the framework of WP5 at Athens on May 2012, the SEETO Transport Investment Conference TRINCON 2011, the Railway Investment in SEE (RISEE) Conference and the TEN-T Days 2011 conference on the new TEN-T framework and instruments proposed by the Commission in December 2011 (TEN-T Guidelines and the Connecting Europe Facility Regulations). The proposals for SEETAC priority projects emerge from the elaboration of all the aspects presented in the current report, aligned with the Trans-European transport network planning methodology of the Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport (DG MOVE) 1. 1 FINAL REPORT Trans-European transport network planning methodology, Report for: European Commission, DG MOVE, 18 October

10 2. Historical review of the European Transport Strategy for the South East Europe region and the Western Balkans South East Europe is a region of high importance for the European Union. Especially concerning Transport, this importance accrues from the fact that this region is a part of the European continent, but at the same time it has a discontinuity zone of the TEN-T, the Western Balkans region. The Transport strategy for the non-eu regions has been expressed in the 90s through the Pan- European Corridors and Areas concept, but moreover, in this particular region it was more intensively expressed after 2001, with the definition of the SEE Strategic Network and of the SEE Core Transport Network, in view of the EU enlargements, which would cause the incorporation of entire PECs or parts of them into the TEN-T. Then, the EC initiated the revision of the PECs concept, proposing five Priority Axes, and among them the South Eastern Axis that covers the SEE region, the Caucasus, Turkey, Middle East and Egypt. In this aspect, taking into consideration the development already made on the networks of the acceding countries, a new orientation for extension of the transport networks for a wider Europe has been initiated. Especially for the development of the South Eastern Axis European Part, with the aim to boost the development of transport infrastructures in the SEE region, the PECs structures, Transport Ministries and the SEETO are engaged in the SEETAC project Corridors, Strategic and Core Networks in the South East Europe The EU in the 1990s carried extensive planning exercises to define and promote the TEN-T for the EU countries and the neighbouring countries, especially the countries of enlargement. The legal basis for the TEN-T has been set by the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, which stressed their importance for the economic and social cohesion and the operation of the single market. In 1996 the EC put in force the special guidelines for the development of the TEN-T, which aimed, inter alia, at ensuring passenger mobility and freight transportation, to offer high quality infrastructure, to integrate the environmental dimension and to promote interoperability. However, the Western Balkans (WB) region was still an interrupting zone of the TEN-T. Concerning the Pan-European Transport Network, initially the First Pan-European Transportation Conference (Prague, 1991) foresaw the indication of the most important transport routes linking the European countries and regions to be considered for improvement and modernization and declared that the attention should follow a corridor-based approach, developing an efficient all-european Transport System. The Pan-European Transport Network, as a concept of the DG Enlargement and the DG Transport and Energy (DG TREN) 2 in cooperation with the European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT) and United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), was more decisively defined during the Second and Third Pan-European Transport Conferences, with the definition of the Corridors and Areas for the non-eu European territories. The Second Pan- European Transport Conference (Crete, 1994) declared that a starting point for future work on coherent infrastructure development at Pan-European level was a set of indicative guidelines and defined nine PECs, which covered the main infrastructure corridors for the various transport modes. The Third Pan-European Transport Conference (Helsinki, 1997) added a tenth Corridor and a branch to the fifth one, bringing additional connectivity to the former Yugoslavian countries and specifically Serbia and Bosnia Herzegovina, and four Pan-European Transport Areas. 2 DG Transport and Energy (DG TREN) has been split into DG Mobility and Transport (DG MOVE) and DG Energy (DG ENER). 3

11 The overall objective of Crete and Helsinki Declarations was to promote sustainable, efficient transport systems, taking into account technical and interoperability aspects, in order to facilitate movements at border crossings, which meet the economic, social, environmental and safety needs of European citizens, help to reduce regional disparities and enable European business to be competitive in the world markets. Among other sub-objectives, one was to promote rehabilitation or reconstruction of problematic links, giving at the same time priority to measures, which are able to better exploit the existing infrastructures. Especially in the region of the SEE, the grid of PECs consists of Corridor IV (North-Southeast), Corridor V (West-East), Corridor VII (the Danube Inland Waterway), Corridor VIII (West-East), Corridor IX (North-East) and Corridor X (Northwest-South). Three out of the four transport Areas are sited in South East Europe: the Adriatic Ionian Seas, the Mediterranean Basin and the Black Sea Basin Core Networks for the South East Europe and the Western Balkans Various regional studies and inventories have been elaborated the last 15 years for the documentation and prioritisation of projects, as well as for the examination of the development potential of the transport sector in general and especially infrastructure. More specifically, one of the extensive planning exercises, carried out by the EU, in order to define the TEN-T for the EU countries and the accession countries was the Transport Infrastructure Needs Assessment (TINA). Based on the Corridors, TINA contributed to the coordination of the infrastructure investment plans of the eleven (then) acceding countries 3 with those of the EU countries, in view of the extension of the TEN-T to the enlarged EU. There was obviously a gap on the European map and rationally it was then recognized, that there was also need for further planning to involve the five (then) countries of the WB 4 participating in the Stabilisation and Association Process. In these terms, the European Transport Policy was more intensively expressed in 2001 and onwards, on the basis of the already established Corridors, through the Strategic Network definition. After the Transport Infrastructure Regional Study (TIRS) and the Regional Balkans Infrastructure Study (REBIS) the SEE Core Transport Network was defined, as well as lists of priority projects. A relevant Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between the participating countries and the EC in 2004 for the development of this regional network and the SEETO was established. Ever since, all the European Transport Policy activities in the Western Balkans region are with reference to the SEE Core Network. This network (today called SEETO Comprehensive Network in order to avoid misunderstanding with the term Core used in the TEN-T revision proposal) would eventually become part of the TEN-T upon accession of the concerned countries into the EU Enlargement and revised framework for transport infrastructure planning in neighbouring countries/regions in the South Eastern Priority Axis After the EU enlargements (2004 and 2007), which led to the incorporation of entire PECs or parts of them into the TEN-T, the EC initiated the revision of the Corridors concept. Gradually, the list of the 14 Essen priority projects has been increased to 30 by the Van Miert High Level Group in 3 Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia 4 Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) 4

12 2004 for the enlarged Europe, while the guidelines in force (and the priority network and projects) are currently under revision. Sections of the Priority Projects 6 (Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača-Ljubljana-Budapest-Ukrainian border), 7 (Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest), 18 (Waterway axis Rhine/Meuse-Main-Danube) and 22 (Railway axis Athina Sofia Budapest Wien Praha Nürnberg/Dresden) coincide with the Railway Corridor V, Road Corridor IV, Inland Waterway Corridor VII and Railway Corridor IV respectively. At the Pan-European Transport Network level, the Loyola de Palacio High Level Group in 2005 and the Communication of the Commission in 2007 proposed five Priority Axes (Motorways of the Seas, Northern Axis, Central Axis, South Eastern Axis and South Western Axis), which would contribute to the promotion of international exchanges, trade and traffic between the EU and its neighbours, with provision of some branches with lower traffic volumes, aiming at regional cooperation enhancement and integration in the long term. The South-Eastern Axis in the Balkan region is actually the network of the existing Corridors; although some parts of them are excluded (Branches B of Corridor V and D of Corridor X, plus Corridors IV and IX, which are now parts of the TEN-T). Cooperation in the transport field and the extension of the Acquis Communautaire in the recently accessed the EU, the candidate and the potential candidate countries of the SEE region is more advanced than for the other partner countries of the EU that are included in the European Neighbourhood Policy. Therefore, the EC suggests that cooperation in the Western Balkans should focus on the SEETO Comprehensive Network and encourages the countries to speed up alignment of their national legislation with the Acquis Communautaire on transport and relevant thematic areas, in order to fully benefit from the accession framework. The EC and the countries of the region are for some years now negotiating a Treaty for the establishment of a Transport Community in SEE, targeting at the establishment of an integrated market for infrastructure and land, inland waterways and maritime transport and of course the adjustment of the relevant legislation in this region. However, due to political reasons, the Treaty has not yet been signed. 3. Current EU Transport Policy for the Networks in the South East Europe In the EU countries of the SEE region the TEN-T Programme consists of projects (defined as studies or works), whose ultimate purpose is to ensure the cohesion, interconnection and interoperability of the TEN-T as well as the access to it. The Priority Projects and other horizontal priorities, as a whole, are established to concentrate on Pan-European integration and development, and the objective is to establish and develop the key links and interconnections needed to eliminate existing bottlenecks to mobility, complete missing sections and the main routes, especially their cross-border sections, overcome natural barriers and improve interoperability on major routes. In this context, in 2006 the EC established the TEN-T Executive Agency (TEN-T EA) to implement and monitor the programme. In 2010, on the basis of a Green Paper on a review of the TEN-T policy 5, the European Parliament and the Council adopted a recast of the TEN-T Guidelines 6. The purpose of this Decision was to establish the guidelines covering the objectives, priorities and broad lines of measures envisaged in 5 GREEN PAPER. TEN-T: A policy review TOWARDS A BETTER INTEGRATED TRANSEUROPEAN TRANSPORT NETWORK AT THE SERVICE OF THE COMMON TRANSPORT POLICY. COM(2009) 44 final. Brussels, Decision No 661/2010/EU 5

13 the area of the TEN-T by identifing projects of common interest, the implementation of which should contribute to the development of the network throughout the Union. The guidelines constituted a general reference framework intending to encourage the EU countries and, where appropriate, the Union in carrying out projects of common interest. These guidelines also intended to facilitate the involvement of the private sector. Additonally, essential requirements related to the interoperability of the TEN-T, transport telematics and ancillary services were defined. (Commission of the European Communities, 2009) In late 2011, the EC adopted a Proposal for a Regulation on Union guidelines for the development of the TEN-T. The new Guidelines, which will replace Decision 661/2010, will define a long-term strategy for the TEN-T policy up to 2030/2050. A conceptual planning has been proposed, according to which, the TEN-T could be best developed through a dual-layer approach, consisting of a Comprehensive network and a Core network. The Core TEN-T should be established as a complete, unified and integrated network, transforming the existing patchwork of European roads, railways, airports and canals, and, hence, it will provide the basis for the balanced development of all transport modes in order to facilitate their respective advantages and thereby maximising the added value of such a network for Europe. The Comprehensive network is envisaged to improve connections between different modes of transport and provide adequate connections to neighbouring countries, ensuring geographical coverage. The following figures present the TEN-T projects completed in 2011 (Figure 1), the proposed Core network to be completed in 2030 (Figure 2) and the network defined by their collaboration (Figure 3). Figure 1 TEN-T projects completed in 2011 (Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, 2011) Figure 2 EU-27 Core Network to be completed in 2030 (Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, 2011) 6

14 Figure 3 TEN-T projects completed in 2011 and EU-27 Core Network to be completed in 2030 (Directorate- General for Mobility and Transport, 2011) The Core Network for the EU countries is presented at the following figures for the different modes of transport, roads, railways, ports, inland waterways, airports and rail-road terminals (Figures 4-7). 7

15 Figure 4 Core Network: Inland waterways and ports (European Commission, 2011) Figure 5 Core Network: Railways (freight), ports and rail-road terminals (RRT) (European Commission, 2011) Figure 6 Core Network: Railways (passengers) and airports (European Commission, 2011) Figure 7 Core Network: Roads, ports, rail-road terminals (RRT) and airports (European Commission, 2011) 8

16 Furthermore, projects of mutual interest will be promoted, according to the EC proposal, including extensions to the neighbouring countries and regions outside Europe. More specifically, the projects of mutual interest aim to connect the TEN-T with the networks of third countries (covered by the Enlargement Policy, the European Neighbourhood Policy, the European Economic Area and the European Free Trade Association) and seek to connect the Core TEN-T at border crossing points, ensure the connection between the Core TEN-T and the networks of the third countries (like the SEE Core Network), complete the transport infrastructure in third countries which serve as links between parts of the Core TEN-T and implement traffic management systems in those countries. Such projects shall enhance the capacity and utility of networks located in the SEE countries. The following figures present the proposed Comprehensive Network for the Western Balkans region for all the transport modes (Figures 8-11). (European Commission, 2011) Figure 8 Comprehensive Network (WB region): Inland waterways and ports (European Commission, 2011) Figure 9 Comprehensive Network (WB region): Railways, ports and rail-road terminals (RRT) (European Commission, 2011) 9

17 Figure 10 Comprehensive Network (WB region): Railways and airports (European Commission, 2011) Figure 11 Comprehensive Network (WB region): Roads, ports, rail-road terminals and airports (European Commission, 2011) Τhe coordination of transport policy, especially for the Western Balkans region, is obviously looser than the EU Common Transport Policy. The SEETO on behalf of its seven Regional Participants (RPs) 7 and in cooperation with the EC is in process to pursue cooperation on the development of the agreed by the Steering Committee (SC) regional transport network ( SEE Core Regional Transport Network or SEETO Comprehensive Network as a result of the TEN-T revision process) and implementation of policies that facilitate such development. Although SEETO, as a regional transport structure, and its Secretariat have no strategic decision making power, it supports the decisions made in the governmental executive bodies and the priority projects adopted by SC and, therefore, has a prominent role in cooperation, harmonization and streamlining national transport policies and creation, promotion and coordination of a regional transport policy. The SC is the main responsible structure for coordinating the transport infrastructure planning, as well as promoting and conducting national reforms in line with the agreed EU and regional driven approach. On the strategic level, strategic decisions and highest political recommendations are taken by the SEETO Annual Ministerial Meetings (AMM). Ministerial conclusions are set, interfaced and conveyed to the national governments. The following figures present the SEETO Comprehensive Network for all the transport modes, road, railway, airports, inland waterways and seaports (Figures 12-14), on the basis of which the SEETO Comprehensive Network was incorporated in the EC 7 Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,. Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo 10

18 proposal for the TEN-T new Regulation. (South East Europe Transport Observatory (SEETO), 2011) Figure 12 SEETO Comprehensive Road Network (SEETO) Figure 13 SEETO Comprehensive Rail Network (SEETO) Figure 14 SEETO Comprehensive Network Airports, Inland Waterways and Seaports (SEETO) The list of the priority projects reflecting the regional priorities is supported in an efficient and regular manner sequenced and prioritized within Multi - Annual Development Plans (MAPs). The most recent MAP comprises 35 projects related to environmentally friendly transport modes with multimodal character. The Priority Projects according to the MAP 2012 are presented at the following figures for all the transport modes, road, railway, airports, seaports and inland waterways (Figures 15-17). (SEETO, 2011) 11

19 Figure 15 SEETO Comprehensive Network - Road Priority Projects (SEETO, 2011) Figure 16 SEETO Comprehensive Network - Railway Priority Projects (SEETO, 2011) Figure 17 SEETO Comprehensive Network - Airports, Seaports and Inland Waterways Priority Projects (SEETO, 2011) According to the SEETO, the tasks defined by the SEETO SC for the coming years include a comprehensive regional transport study (complementing the MAP) and improvement of data collection mechanisms, support of implementation of the railway addendum of the MoU, support of harmonisation of border crossing procedures and support of improvements in road infrastructure safety management. In this context, SEETO offers (apart from the information exchange, information dissemination, public visibility, management and back office), duties related directly and indirectly to the development and maintenance of the SEETO Comprehensive Network and Infrastructure and duties related to supporting RPs in developing and implementing Policies/ Soft Issues/ horizontal measures in areas such as interoperability, regulatory reforms, safety aspects, public participation, institutional capacity building, etc. (SEETO, 2011) 12

20 4. National Transport Plans aligned with the EU Policy and criteria for project prioritisation The Community Strategic Guidelines distinguish the guidelines of action for cohesion policy to give effect to the priorities of the Community with a view to promote balanced, harmonious and sustainable development. Αt the Member States level, these Strategic Guidelines form the basis for identifying investment priorities, which are then elaborated in National Strategic Reference Frameworks that are subsequently further detailed in Operational Programmes (OPs) for thematic areas including transport. In this respect, EU countries prepare their National Strategic Reference Frameworks and Operational Programmes attempting to integrate Community priorities into national and regional development programmes, responding through their transport policies to the EC challenges and providing synergy among different transport systems. Member States give priority to preparation, implementation, construction and modernising of largescale projects of European interest, located in their territory and more specifically regions eligible under the Convergence objective, aiming to the integration of the national into the European transport system. Other TEN-T projects are supported where this is a strong case in terms of their contribution to growth and competitiveness. Within this group of projects, cross-border links and those overseen by the specially designated European coordinators in the Member States are promoted as transport investment priorities. Complementary investment in secondary connections are treated as important in the context of an integrated regional transport and communications strategy covering urban and rural areas, in order to ensure that the regions benefit from the opportunities created by the major networks. Support for rail infrastructure is promoted to ensure greater access. Member States intend to form the track fees aiming to facilitate access for independent operators and enhancing the creation of an interoperable network at national and EU-wide level. Compliance and applications of the interoperability and the establishment of European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) on board and on track is included in some cases of the projects financed. In order to guarantee the optimum efficiency of transport infrastructures for promoting regional development, attention is paid to improving the connectivity of landlocked territories to the TEN-T. In this respect, the development of secondary links, with a focus on intermodality and sustainable transport, is promoted. In particular, harbours and airports should be efficiently connected to their hinterland. Additionally, Motorways of the sea and short-sea shipping are recognized as a viable alternative to long-distance road and rail transport and projects are treated as priorities at the Member States where this opportunity exists. More generally, the Member States through the Operational Programmes give specific instructions for road, railway, inland waterway, maritime, air transport infrastructure, infrastructure for multimodal transport and equipment and intelligent transport systems aiming to prevent uneven regional development and improve territorial integration and cooperation between and within regions, with respect to the territorial dimension of Cohesion Policy. (Commission of the European Communities, 2005) Regarding the Candidate and Potential Candidate countries in the South East region, there has been advanced progress in some countries in the field of Transport sector, while at others, preparations in the area of Transport are at an early stage. Activities and priorities in the domain of transport 13

21 infrastructure are directed to the achievement of the strategic objectives described in the European Commission document Transport and Energy Infrastructure in Southeast Europe and having confirmed the intention to foster the transport reforms of the SEETO Regional Participants in order to support the integration of the region into a single transport market facilitated by a Transport Community Treaty, while they have all signed the Memorandum of Understanding for the Core Network (SEETO). More specifically, the Western Balkans countries involved in the SEETAC project have already planned a series of measures to fulfill their obligations, as participants of the Stabilization and Association Process (SAA), to get the approximation process under way. The Protocol on Land Transport, as an integral part of SAA, mainly aims to promote the cooperation between the participating countries and EU on land transport (particularly on transit traffic) and to ensure that the land transport between and through the territory is developed in a coordinate manner. It recognizes the extent of the progress achieved so far in terms of the sector reform and restructuring process, and provides the basis for cooperation with the EU on the following issues: coordinated development of transport infrastructure, reciprocal market access in the field of road transport, essential legal and administrative supporting measures, including commercial, taxation, social and technical measures and a transport system development process factoring environmental requirements as well as the regular exchange of information on transport policies, particularly in the area of transport infrastructure. The Protocol also includes the specific section called Rail and Combined Transport, which stipulates the adoption of coordinated necessary measures by the participating countries and EU for the development and promotion of rail and combined transport. This section of the Protocol also refers to the aspects of infrastructure in particular to the capacity improvements required to support such development, which may call for substantial investment. However, EU is ready to support this over its financial institutions and lending instruments including the additional resources, which is also clearly expressed in this Protocol. Additionally, the Memorandum of Understanding, the main legal basis for the SEE Core Network, is made up of on the one hand relevant part of the Acquis Communautaire in the field of transport and on the other hand major international Agreements and especially the European Agreement on Main International Traffic Arteries (AGR), the European Agreement on Main International Railway Lines (AGC) and the European Agreement on Important International Combined Transport (AGTC). In these terms, activities and priorities in the domain of transport infrastructure on behalf of the Candidate and Potential Candidate participating in the SEETAC project are directed to the achievement of the following strategic objectives: establishment and adoption of an efficient legal, organisational and institutional framework, development of multimodal transport through the connection of all types of transport infrastructure as well as connection with corridors outside the region, 14

22 rehabilitation of the existing infrastructure, elimination of border crossings obstacles, competitiveness and cooperation between transport modes, environmental protection through mandatory development of studies about the effect of infrastructure facilities on the environment and investment programmes which must be based on economic parameters. Some of the recent, ongoing and upcoming projects in the SEETAC participating countries are listed for every country in the Annex II of the Financial Instruments Report in the terms of the activity WP5 Identification of Necessary Financial Resources and Financing Mechanisms. However, there are still some necessary efforts that should be harmonized with the EU transport policy and the Western Balkans countries transport strategies need to be followed up by master plans and sectoral measures in comply with EU standards and regulations. Therefore, the countries of the Western Balkans undertake necessary measures, such as: Adoption of laws and by-laws in accordance with European standards wherever possible and finding ways of strengthening transport and transport infrastructure institutions; Adequate preparation for the use of EU pre-accession funds for transport, i.e. for the use of IPA (necessary state bodies and structures that would ensure unhindered and efficient implementation of projects, necessary efficient time planning, development of strategic documents); Strengthening activities in all types of transport and transport infrastructure so as to improve traffic safety; Increasing tolls for roads contained in the retail price of fuel (through a redistribution or increase in retail prices), and ensuring more funds for the maintenance and development of railway infrastructure; Intensifying activities towards international financial and other institutions and organisations for the purpose of greater assistance in the realisation of priority projects; Taking steps in the reconstruction of railways and their successful competitiveness with other transport means; Improving navigation security control and marine environment protection; Initiating activities to clean up the Sava riverbed and reconstruct and develop its ports through regional cooperation; Developing necessary studies and investment and technical documentation so as to create the necessary preconditions for negotiations on modes of financing priority infrastructure projects; Performing preparations for joining the EU road transport market; 15

23 Developing an integrated and balanced multimodal transport system as to integrate all transport models into a common European transport network; and Enabling simpler procedures at border crossings and creating preconditions necessary to facilitate the issuing of visas, especially for business purposes. The criteria for project prioritisation among the transport projects identified by the National Transport Plans aligned with the EU Policy within the framework of WP5 activities could concern all the transport modes, road, railway, maritime, inland waterway or air transport subsector, as well as multi-modal nodes and terminals. Fundamentally, these projects should meet the several criteria (planning, financial and technical) adjusted to the recommendations of EC proposal for the new TEN-T Guidelines. These criteria, listed below, were those used for the identification of projects to prepare project fiches for promotion for financing, in the framework of WP5-SEETAC. a. have the necessary documentation to fulfill the requirements of the project justification and prioritisation, b. belong to the EU proposed Core or Comprehensive TEN-T or the SEETO Comprehensive Network, c. provide link between these networks, enhancing cross border cooperation, d. ensure connection between the Core TEN-T and the transport networks of neighboring countries, e. have major regional impact on the South East Europe transport networks, generate European added value and assure transport flows continuity, f. have not yet a secured financial plan for all its sections, g. facilitate maritime transport by providing links to main ports, h. mainly serve international transport flows (or contribute to the provision of improved level of service for international transport), i.e. have a big share of international traffic, i. ensure and promote interoperability and multimodality, j. ensure financial and economic sustainability of the proposed investment(s) and k. minimise investment, maintenance and operational costs and environmental impact. 5. Assessment of existing and forecasted situation Considering that the SEETAC project main technical activities concern a) the establishment of a detailed and harmonised database for the existing and future situation of the SEE transport supply and demand and b) the development of a transport model for the simulation and assessment of the existing situation and the examination of development scenarios (demography, economy, trade, new projects implementation) for the future (target years 2020 and 2030) and their impact on transport 16

24 operations and the environment, the assessment of the existing and the forecasted situation occurs from the exploitation of the WP3 and WP4 results concerning the supply, the demand, the level of service and the bottlenecks in the current and the forecasted situation. The reference network (Figure 18) consists of the strategic infrastructure (TEN-T, PECs and SEETO Comprehensive Network), as well as some other sections useful for modelling purposes, and includes roads, railway lines, inland waterways and their interconnection points with the ports and airports in the region. The simulated road network consists of 373 links with total length of 23920km and the railway network of 301 links with length of 19085km in total. Figure 18 SEETAC study Road (left) and Railway (right) Networks (Sistemi Operativi S.r.l.; Central European Initiative (C.E.I.), 2012) For this network a very detailed survey was performed in the framework of WP3 in order to collect data for the physical (geometrical) and operational characteristics of each one of the network s links and nodes. This survey allowed the establishment of the SEETAC study network database and the construction of the SEETAC transport model within WP4, with appropriate geo-reference and assignment of the appropriate attributes to its components. Through the transport model it was possible to have various functions for the assessment of the network, e.g. the identification of main trips generators and attractors, saturated links and nodes, corridors and nodes of national (but mostly regional/international) importance. Furthermore, the model in its 2nd phase tested the impact of the priority projects implementation on the traffic assignment on the network under study, for the target year of the traffic forecast, years 2020 and Up to completion of this draft report the results of the forecast for 2030 have not been made available. 17

25 For the examination of the future situation of the infrastructure (supply), a 2 nd round of data collection was completed concerning projects under implementation or underway for implementation (secured financing), as well as on projects included in the national transport plans and which are also part of the TEN-T and SEETO planning. Therefore, a complete database has been established, incorporating the existing and the future situation of the transport network (geometrical/physical and operational characteristics) of the various land transport modes Existing transport supply According to the database processing, the total length of Pan-European Corridors in the region under study is 9594km of roads and 10530km of railway lines. 53,1% of the roads are motorways or expressways with 2 or more lanes per direction. The length of double tracks on Corridors represent the 51,4% of their total length and the 83,7% of the Corridors railway lines are electrified. It emerges that the infrastructures on the main Corridors running through the region are more or less developed in terms of infrastructure. The existing infrastructure for the road and the rail network are presented graphically on thematic maps produced by EURAC research within the activities of WP4 in the following subchapters Roads Regarding the road network, the following map (Figure 19) presents the links and the nodes investigated for the assessment of the existing situation. On country level, the majority of the motorways on the SEETAC Network is located in Italy, Austria, Slovenia and Croatia. 18

26 Figure 19 SEETAC Road Network links/nodes (EURAC Research, 2012) On Corridor level, on Corridor X the 72,3% of its total length is operating as motorway or expressway (2 or more lanes per direction). On Corridor V this percentage rises up to 60,8% of its total length (Figure 20). Figure 20 Typology of PECs Roads in SEE (% of the total length) Furthermore, the analysis based on the typology (number of lanes) and the capacity of the road links are graphically presented in the following map (Figure 21). 19

27 Figure 21 SEETAC Road network links capacity (EURAC Research, 2012) The road links with the higher capacity are located in Italy and Austria. As the majority of the links operates as motorways or expressways with 2 or 3 lanes per direction, the links count capacities of vehicles per hour in both directions. Lower capacities are observed on the majority of the road links with 2 lanes per direction at the Greek and Slovenian road networks ( vehicles per hour in both directions). In Croatia and Serbia, there are also motorways and expressways with 2 lanes per direction and their capacity is calculated from to vehicles per hour in both directions. Finally, in Bulgaria, Montenegro and Romania, the majority of the routes has 1 lane per direction with capacities ranging between and vehicles per hour in both directions. (EURAC Research, 2012) Railways Regarding the railway network and specifically the rail Corridors in the SEETAC area, the length of double tracks on Corridor IV represent the 64,7% of its total length, on Corridor V represent the 52,6% of its total length and on Corridor VIII the 50,7% of its total (constructed) length. 20

28 Figure 22 Typology of PECs Railway Lines in SEE (% of the total length) The following map (Figure 23) presents the rail capacity (trains per day per direction) at the rail network under research. The rail capacity is considered homogeneous between the countries of the SEE and generally it is operating in medium level. According to the outcomes of WP4, infrastructure does not meet the standards required to satisfy the operational needs of the market. Figure 23 SEETAC Railway lines capacity (EURAC Research, 2012) According to WP4 results, apart from parts of the Italian, Austrian and Romanian lines, where the capacity of the railway network is estimated more than 100/trains per day and direction, the majority of the rail links in the SEE region counts a capacity of trains per day and direction. On the other hand, in Montenegro and Bulgaria, the majority of links has capacity of less than 60 trains per day per direction. Lower Capacity is observed at the national trans-border links, reduced 21

29 due to the change of traction and the technologies used, i.e. lack of interoperability between the various national railway systems. (EURAC Research, 2012) 5.2. Existing transport demand and relation with supply Roads Concerning the intensity and the traffic assignment of the light vehicles (per hour on an average weekday) along the South Eastern Axis road network show that the Italian, Austrian and Slovenian main road networks are loaded with more than cars per hour, in both directions. High traffic volumes are also observed the proximity of big cities of the SEE study area, mainly during the rush hour (Ljubljana, Belgrade, Bucharest, Sofia, Athens) and along the transalpine axes, like Innsbruck-Rosenheim, Palmanova-Udine, Ancona-Venice-Trieste-Ljubljana. Finally, the intensity of light and private traffic around cars per hour per direction is recorded along main Serbo- Croatian and Hungarian-Romanian Corridors. The mentioned outcomes are presented at the following figures for the four macro-areas of SE Axis (Figure 24). Figure 24 Hourly average light cars traffic on SEETAC Road network per link (light vehicles/ hour) (EURAC Research, 2012) 22

30 Regarding trucks traffic flows (commercial vehicles per hour in an average weekday) along the SEA road network, it seems that the distribution of freight traffic is more homogeneous (than cars) along the entire SEA network. Particularly, a traffic of heavy and commercial vehicles per hour per direction is estimated along the main corridors between Italy and Slovenia, Austria and Slovenia, Serbia and Croatia, Hungary and Romania, and in the proximity of big cities of the SEE study area. An overlapping effect between long-haul and light-range traffic along any crucial transalpine axis is observed (e.g. the macro-link Innsbruck-Rosenheim, Palmanova-Udine and Ravenna-Venice-Trieste-Ljubljana). The outcomes are presented for the same macro-areas of SEA at the following figures (Figure 25). Figure 25 Hourly average trucks traffic on SEETAC Road network per link (heavy vehicles/ hour) (EURAC Research, 2012) Furthermore, through the transport model, traffic and capacity analyses have been performed, through the traditional comparison of the total traffic volume with the infrastructural capacity for each road link of the network. The results of these analyses represent the offered level of service of SEA road network, according to the criteria and indicators of the Highway Capacity Manual

31 Figure 26 Level of Service of SEETAC Road network per link (Daily traffic/ Capacity ratio per link) (EURAC Research, 2012) In the current situation low level of service is observed along the main corridor between Hungary and Romania and in the proximity of capital cities (Belgrade, Sofia and Bucharest). It is also observed that the majority of Italian, Austrian and Slovenian (Ljubljana area) road corridors show a volume/ capacity ratio around value 0,5-0,8 (medium level of service), despite the good level of infrastructural quality. Generally, the big influence by the commercial and heavy traffic flows is recognised (Figure 26). (EURAC Research, 2012) On Pan-European Corridor level, it is observed that main transport flows are concentrated on the Corridors IV, V and X of the region and less on Corridors VIII and IX Railways The current distribution of rail travellers traffic flows on the core network of the SEE study area show that transnational travellers rail traffic appears not particularly developed, mainly due to technical and infrastructure bottlenecks at border lines. Austrian and Italian rail lines usually serve more than passengers daily (both directions). A traffic of around daily travellers is observed in Slovenia and of daily passengers in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary. The intensity of commuting traffic in the proximity of capital cities of the SEE study area, such as Ljubljana, Belgrade, Bucharest, Sofia, Athens, is visible (Figure 27). 24

32 Figure 27 Daily passenger traffic on SEETAC Rail network per link (travellers/ day) (EURAC Research, 2012) Regarding the intensity and the current distribution of freight rail traffic flows along the SEA rail network, it seems that it is more homogeneous than passengers along the whole SEETAC network. A relevant intensity ( tonnes per day for both directions) is observed along main Austro-Italian (via Adriatic Corridor), Austro-Slovenian, Serbo-Croatian, Serbo-Romanian and Hungaro-Romanian corridors (Figure 28). The transnational freight rail traffic appears relatively poor in the Bulgarian, Greek and Albanian networks and along the Italo-Slovenian Corridor V, due to technical and infrastructural bottlenecks at the borders. 25

33 Figure 28 Daily freight transport on SEETAC Rail network per link (tonnes/ day) (EURAC Research, 2012) Estimating the level of service and the relationship between total traffic (passenger/freight per year) and infrastructure capacity of SEA Rail network, saturated conditions (poor level of service) are recorded along the crucial Austrian transalpine corridors, with effects on Austro-Slovenian and Austro-Hungarian links. Other critical situations are recorded along the rail network in Slovenia and Bulgaria, due to the metropolitan areas by-pass and cross-border critical points. Generally main transport flows of the railway network are concentrated on the Corridors IV, V and X. The following figure graphically reproduces these outcomes on the level of service of SEA rail network (Figure 29). (EURAC Research, 2012) 26

34 Figure 29 Level of Service of SEETAC Rail network per link (Daily traffic/ Capacity ratio per link) (EURAC Research, 2012) Maritime and Inland waterways As for the waterway system, the WP4 model reproduced outputs on the intensity and the allocation of maritime and transhipment freight traffic flows (expressed in average tonnes per day) along the SEA network (including the travel by road). Figure 30 Daily maritime and transhipment freight traffic (tonnes/ day) (EURAC Research, 2012) 27

35 It emerges that the allocation of freight traffic including a maritime link is very homogeneous along the whole SEA network, both the road network and the sea corridors of Adriatic Sea and Black Sea. Especially the Adriatic/ Ionian sea corridor is loaded with an average flow of tonnes per day, with a sharing of operational drops (including intermodal activities) at the Italian (Venice, Trieste, Ravenna, Ancona), Slovenian (Koper), Croatian (Rijeka, Zadar), Greek (Patra) and Albanian (Durres) ports. The Mediterranean Greek corridor serves an average flow of tonnes per day, with main operation at the Piraeus port. Finally, the Black Sea west maritime front has an average flow of tonnes per day, shared equally between the Romanian (Costanta) and Bulgarian (Varna, Burgas) ports. Finally, as for the inland waterway transport in the area under research, it appears that the main inland traffic has its origin and destination from/to the north-western side of Europe (mainly Germany and the Netherlands) by road, making the road-river intermodal transport using of Austrian (Vienna) and Croatian (Sisak) platforms, on Danube and Sava rivers. The sharing of intensity of traffic along this river axis is quite homogeneous, around tonnes per day starting from Belgrade directed eastbound. The activities of interchanging transport river-maritime are very relevant to the delta of Danube harbours (Tulcea, Galati), with estimated tonnage of around tonnes per average day. The overall conclusions defined from the modelling elaboration on the current status prescribe a systematic presence of the same critical elements of transport systems and their facilities, despite the existence of different national frameworks, lack of capacity for the suburban infrastructures, above all links connecting urban and suburban areas, which generate bottlenecks and congestion, low accessibility standards for tourist resorts and naturalistic interest areas, due to inadequate infrastructures and mobility management systems, and other cases of inadequate infrastructure, which not satisfy different traffic typologies (residential, operative, freight, touristic traffic, trading exchanges, local, short or long distance traffic, etc.) (EURAC Research, 2012) 5.3. Future transport demand Review of studies and projects relevant to transport in the region of SEE and EU Concerning the future transport demand in SEE, there are other studies with reference to this region, the EUNSTAT (IWW, 2005), the TEN-CONNECT (2009) and the UNECE TEM and TER Projects Master Plan 2011 (2011). The first one concerned the freight traffic forecast between the EU and the neighbouring countries and regarding the SEE region it concluded that the future (target year of the forecast 2020) freight traffic flows will be concentrated on the road corridors between Turkey Bulgaria Western Balkans Germany/ Northern Italy and Bulgaria Romania Russia and on the railway corridor between Bulgaria Romania Ukraine and Russia. 28

36 Figure 31 Road freight flows on the Pan-European Network (forecast 2020) (NEA Transport research and training, 2005) Figure 32 Rail freight flows on the Pan-European Network (forecast 2020) (NEA Transport research and training, 2005) The second forecast, not only dedicated to freight, concluded that on the SEE road network the corridors with the biggest flows are Corridor X (Main Axis from Austria to Belgrade and Nis and 29

37 Branch C to Sofia) and Corridor IV from Sofia to Istanbul. The same applies for rail passenger traffic and to some extend for rail freight traffic, where Corridor IV is more loaded on its parts in Romania and its eastern part in Bulgaria near the border with Turkey, and also Corridor IX south of Bucharest. Figure 33 Road traffic loads on the Pan-European Network (forecast 2030) (Petersen, et al., 2009) Figure 34 Rail passenger traffic loads on the Pan-European Network (forecast 2030) (Petersen, et al., 2009) 30

38 Figure 35 Rail traffic loads in tonnes on the Pan-European Network (forecast 2030) (Petersen, et al., 2009) The third forecast, the study Trans-European Motorway (TEM) and Trans-European Railway (TER) Revised Master Plan by UNECE (2011), also dedicated to both passengers and freight flows, shows the forecast traffic volumes in 2020 on the North-South Trans-European Networks. The heaviest traffic flows are observed along road Corridors IV and X, along the road axes Foggia- Bologna-Padova and Torino-Milano-Padova-Trieste in Italy and along the road axis Salzburg-Wien and Klagenfurt-Villach in Austria. Furthermore, high daily traffic is also observed around the big cities Athens, Thessaloniki, Bucharest, Budapest, Belgrade and Sofia. Additional, according to the study, the road capacity bottlenecks are observed at the links Vlore-Durres and in the proximity of Maribor. 31

39 Figure 36 Traffic flows in 2020 in Trans-European North-South Motorway (TEM) Network (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2011) Figure 37 Bottlenecks in Trans-European North-South Motorway (TEM) Network (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2011) Concerning the railway network, the highest passengers flows are forecasted between the rail links Innsbruck-Salzburg-Wien in Austria and between Rome-Bologna and Verona-Venetia in Italy. As for the freight flows on the railways of the region, the highest flows are forecasted along the rail 32

40 Corridors X (Belgrade-Ljubljana) and IV (from Budapest to Bratislava and Wien). Furthermore, the railway links, where high freight flows are observed, are Innsbruck-Salzburg-Wien in Austria and Rome-Bologna-Bolzano (TEN-T priority project 1) and Verona-Venetia in Italy until Ljubljana (TEN-T priority project 6). The main bottlenecks in the rail network are observed along Corridor X (Nis-Belgrade-Budapest and Zagreb-Tovarnik), Corridor V (Rijeka-Zagreb-Gola and Budapest- Bajansenye). Bottlenecks of lower length are observed around Brasov, Wien, Ljubljana, Gyor, Salzburg. Figure 38 Passenger flows in 2020 in Trans-European North-South Railway (TER) Network (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2011) 33

41 Figure 39 Freight flows in 2020 in Trans-European North-South Railway (TER) Network (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2011) Figure 40 Bottlenecks in 2020 in Trans-European North-South Railway (TER) Network (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2011) SEETAC forecast Do Nothing 2020 scenario In the framework of WP4 of SEETAC different scenarios of transport demand evolution and infrastructure development have been examined. More specifically, considering the year 2010 as the 34

42 base year of the forecast exercise, a Do Nothing 2020 scenario has been examined, in order to identify the future infrastructural bottlenecks in the case of not implementing projects. The transport demand forecast was performed taking as key variable the GDP evolution in the countries of the region, while it considered also a modal shift of 10% from other transport modes to the railways. The results of trip distribution and the traffic classification taking into consideration the low annual growth factors used for GDP projection during the current decade, show a slight reduction of the offered level of service at the various parts of the network. Almost poor level of service (red and yellow links) is visible along the TEN-T priority axis 7 Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/ Patra Athina Sofia - Budapest (or Corridor IV) and in proximity of main towns (e.g. Sofia and Bucharest); Saturation problems appear along the Corridors V and X and specifically in proximity of Belgrade and Ljubljana. The majority of Italian (Pescara Trieste and Bologna - Bolzano) and Austrian (Innsbruck - Salzburg) road corridors show a flow/ capacity relationship around value 0,5-0,8 (medium level of service ) despite the good level of infrastructural quality. There is a big influence by the commercial and heavy traffic flows. (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 41 Modelling elaboration and simulated allocation concerning the scenario Do Nothing (level of service Average Daily Traffic / Capacity Max) (EURAC Research, 2012) Do Something 2020 Scenario Concerning the Do something 2020 scenario, which includes the implementation of several projects in the region, this included 40 more road links, 9 more road nodes, 22 more railway links and 2 more Railway nodes, compared to the reference networks of the base scenario. 35

43 The road and rail projects/ interventions incorporated in the future So Something 2020 are presented in the following figures, classified per type of intervention (new infrastructures and doubling/ capacity improvement) and institutional framework (TEN-T or SEETO network) part. Figure 42 Scenario 2020 Infrastructure interventions in the road network per type of intervention (left) and part of the network (right) (EURAC Research, 2012) Figure 43 Scenario 2020 Infrastructure interventions in the rail network per type of intervention (left) and part of the network (right) (right) (EURAC Research, 2012) A new trip distribution and assignment was performed on the 2020 network. The results are presented in the following paragraphs Roads According to the traffic assignment and the examination of the Volume/ Capacity ratios (Figure 44) it emerges that: The Do Something scenario for 2020 provides significant improvement of main efficiency indicators of road SEA transport system, specifically for the level of service, with rather spread functional benefits on the whole network. Links with poor level of service in Do Nothing scenario have improved operational conditions, likely visible along the TEN-T priority axis 7 Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/ Patra Athina Sofia - Budapest (or Corridor IV) and in the proximity of big cities (e.g. Sofia and Bucharest). 36

44 Improvement of operational conditions of the links - parts of the Corridors V and X in proximity of Belgrade, Zagreb and Ljubljana. Positive effects are recorded at many cross-border links. The majority of Italian, Austrian and Slovenian road corridors have improved volume/ capacity ratio, due to the completion of interventions on infrastructures with already good quality. Figure 44 SCENARIO 2020 level of service of SEETAC Road network per link (level of service capacity) (EURAC Research, 2012) The major order of magnitude improvements (higher than 10%) are observed along the following corridors: TEN-T priority axis 7 or Corridor IV and specifically the road links Costanta-Bucharest- Pitesti (Romania) and Patra-Korinthos-Kiparissia (Greece), Corridor X and specifically the Beograd gravitation road system (Serbia), Links included in the Corridor IV and connected to it (Alexandria-Craiova-Timisoara (Romania) and Arad-Satu Mare-Zalau (Romania)), Links included in the Corridor Vc and connected to it (Jagodina (Serbia)-Sarajevo-Mostar (Bosnia and Herzegovina) and Novi Sad (Serbia) Zenica (Bosnia and Herzegovina)), Links included in Route 7 (Nis - Pristina (Serbia)), Cross border section between Serbia-Bulgaria, Serbia-FYROM, Serbia-Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania-FYROM and Greece-FYROM. 37

45 Figure 45 SCENARIO 2020 improvement of level of service of SEETAC Road network per link (EURAC Research, 2012) The following table presents some values of efficiency in scenario 2020 with aggregate results for each country concerning to the main indicators of efficiency of the SEA road system, related to the corresponding values emerged from the Do Nothing scenario. Table 1 Scenario Outcomes related to Do Nothing Scenario COUNTRY Network length (km) Cars x km Trucks x km Cars time Trucks time Cross border sections 11,0% 22,3% 7,4% -8,3% -10,5% Bosnia and Herzegovina 0,0% 1,1% -8,1% -8,5% -18,1% Germany 0,0% -0,1% -0,8% -0,1% -0,8% Montenegro 0,0% 32,7% 10,4% 12,0% -13,6% Greece 0,0% -0,7% 1,0% -2,3% -0,1% Hungary 0,0% 0,3% -1,7% -0,2% -2,0% Italy 0,0% -0,2% 0,6% -0,2% 0,7% Austria 0,0% 2,5% -3,3% 2,5% -3,0% Bulgaria -0,7% -1,4% -1,6% -1,4% -1,6% Albania 0,0% 4,7% 5,7% -10,9% -10,4% Croatia 0,0% -2,1% -0,3% -3,0% -1,5% FYROM 0,0% -5,2% -3,8% -9,8% -6,4% Slovenia 0,0% 15,2% 4,0% 15,0% 3,9% Serbia 8,2% -9,7% -6,8% -14,3% -11,6% Romania 0,3% -1,9% -1,9% -4,8% -4,7% Slovakia 0,0% 5,4% 17,1% 4,2% 13,0% 38

46 The comparative outocomes concerning the average travel times (Veh-hour per day) for cars and trucks and per country is represented in the following figures. Wide level of functional improvements appear on crossborder links. Figure 46 SCENARIO 2020 Efficiency Indicators per Country Average trip time for cars (left) and trucks (right) (EURAC Research, 2012) The improvement shares of the average commercial speed for cars and trucks and for every country due to the improving factors of the free flow are presented at the following figures. Figure 47 SCENARIO 2020 Efficiency Indicators per Country Average commercial spped for cars (left) and trucks (right) (EURAC Research, 2012) The major improvements are observed in countries where - at current situation - the commercial speeds are relatively low, due to the poor level of infrastructure. Following the future infrastructure development, the major increase of the average commercial speed (higher than 10%) are observed in Montenegro and Albania, for both cars and trucks. At crossborder links very significant is the increase of average commercial speed (esimated 23,5% for cars and 16,3% for trucks). Relatively high improving margins (between 4 and 10%) were observed in Bosnia, Serbia and FYROM, while significant improvements to the commercial speed for trucks are also estimated in Romania (+2,8%), Greece (+1,5%), Croatia (+1,1%) and Slovenia (+0,8%) Railways Regarding the SEETAC rail network, the main results (as depicted in Figure 48) were that: 39

47 The infrastructure development up to 2020 generates a significant improvement of main efficiency indicators of rail SEA transport system, specifically for the level of service, with functional benefits on the whole network. Links showing poor level of service in existing situation improve operational conditions mainly along the Railway Corridors IV (TEN-T priority axis 22) and VIII and in proximity of Sofia and Bucharest. Positive effects are observed on the Railway Corridors V (concerning also some parts included in the TEN-T priority axis 6) and IV and more specifically on the connections Wien Budapest Arad Craiova Sofia Thessaloniki - Athens and in proximity of Ljubljana, Zagreb and Budapest. The operational conditions are being improved also at the feeder railway links between Bologna, Innsbruck, Bratislava and Budapest. Positive effects are recorded in proximity to many cross border links and mainly improvement of level of service on rail Corridor V. Figure 48 SCENARIO 2020 level of service of SEETAC Rail network per link (level of service capacity) (EURAC Research, 2012) According to the following figure (Figure 49), the major improvements (greater than 10%) are observed along the following macro rail corridors: TEN-T priority project 6 (Railway axis Lyon-Trieste-Divača/Koper-Divača-Ljubljana- Budapest-Ukrainian border) or Corridor V and specifically along the link Budapest Maribor (Hungary-Slovenia), TEN-T priority project 17 (Railway axis Paris-Strasbourg-Stuttgart-Wien-Bratislava), TEN-T priority project 22 (Railway axis Athens Sofia Budapest Wien Praha Nürnberg/Dresden) or Corridor IV in some cases and more specifically Bratislava-Budapest- 40

48 Arad (Hungary), Thessaloniki-Athens (Greece),Timisoara-Turnu Severin (Romania), Vidin- Sofia (Bulgaria) and Sofia-Thessaloniki (Bulgaria-Greece), TEN-T priority project 29 (Railway axis of the Ionian/Adriatic intermodal corridor) and the connector links from Athens, Corridor V and specifically the railway link Zagreb-Nagikanizsa (Croatia), Railway Route 2 and specifically the link Tirana-Shkoder (Albania) and Cross border corridors between Hungary and Croatia, Hungary and Romania, Romania and Bulgaria, Albania and Montenegro and Greece and Bulgaria. Figure 49 SCENARIO 2020 improvement of level of service of SEETAC Rail network per link (EURAC Research, 2012) Inland waterways Interventions scheduled for the 2020 time horizon regarding waterway transport, on the basis of SEETO and TENtec Information System sources, concern rehabilitation and enlargement of general equipment of inland waterway ports. No significant improvements are expected in inland waterway operations, enough to affect the modal split and this was the main reason that their impact was not incorporated in the transport model. (EURAC Research, 2012) The most concrete outcome can be located on the river section in Serbia (north of Belgrade), where there are several interventions to improve inland waterway ports operational capacity, as indicated by SEETO (see below the extract concerning interventions concerning the inland transport system). Table 2 Inland Waterway projects indicated by SEETO 41

49 However, this cluster of interventions is suitable to improve capacity for this strategic section for the SEA inland transport system, to the north of the confluence of the Sava and the Danube (Belgrade). 6. SEETAC priority projects The modelling analysis provided an assessment of the physical and operational characteristics of the modal systems of the SEA transport system for the next decade. According to this analysis, the implementation of the projects incorporated in the scenario 2020 would cause improvement of standard quality (Level of Service and Average Time Trip) of transport systems and facilities, better performance of networks in Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia for road, in Albania, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece for rail and improvement of standard quality for cross border links due to the increased capacity of many check-points, leading to an increase of average speed by %, depending on the location and transport mode. Currently, the main critical parts of the network are located at suburban areas. The improvement of infrastructure in the proximity of the main urban areas will eliminate suburban bottlenecks, likely at Belgrade, Bucharest, Podgorica, Tirana, Sofia, Zagreb and Ljubljana (last two specifically for rail). Furthermore, given the fact that the existing network is offered to satisfy different trip purposes and types (residential, freight, touristic, local, short or long distance traffic, etc) the implementation of the projects incorporated in the SEETAC model for 2020 would contribute to the separation of long and local distance trips, light and heavy traffic flows, through the improvement and optimisation of road and rail network and facilities. Obviously, the improvements and the increased level of service would improve the accessibility standards and set-up the background to push forward development of mobility management systems. The assessment of the existing situation concerning the current technical and functional characteristics of the transport system and of the scenarios Do Nothing and 2020 through the modeling analysis, combined with the investigation on the strengths, the weaknesses and the opportunities in the SEE area, that were done in the terms of the SEETAC WP4 project activities, can lead to the identification and selection of priority projects for the improvement of level of service at critical points of the networks, which would have high and positive impact on the growth of the area, as an overall objective of the SEETAC project. The identification of the priority projects is aligned with the Community guidelines for the development of the TEN-T. Therefore, it includes projects of common interest for the Community in the field of all the land transport modes and in the territories of all the countries involved in the SEETAC project, EU Member States and SEETO Regional Participants, aiming at better interoperability between the TEN-T and the SEETO Comprehensive Network and to an efficient SEE transport system by addressing critical bottlenecks, in particular cross border sections and intermodal nodes. They concern completion of the connections needed to facilitate transport, optimisation of the efficiency of existing infrastructure, achievement of interoperability of network components and integration of the environmental dimension into the network. The majority of the projects concerns interventions on the road and the rail network, in order to relieve the networks and eliminate the bottlenecks, as they emerged from the common conclusions on the future transport demand from the related studies that were reviewed and the results occurred from the modeling elaboration within the WP4 activities. More specifically, many of the roadrelated projects within the SEETAC projects are located along the road Corridor IV and mainly in 42

50 the territory of Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, the road Corridor X in the territory of Serbia and mostly in the proximity of Belgrade, in Albania at sections included in the Corridor VIII, where bottlenecks are observed, but also many road projects concern interventions on the Italian road network, where the traffic values for 2020 are forecasted high. On the rail sector, many rail projects within the SEETAC projects are located in the territories of Romania, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia and Austria along the Corridors IV, V and X, where the passengers and freight traffic is estimated high, according to the reviewed conclusions and results. Furthermore, many rail high speed projects are located in Italy. The priority projects list is presented at the following table: 43

51 Table 3 SEETAC priority projects list serial number SEETAC code project Transport Mode Country Priority Project/ Corridor/ Route/ Title of programme or project Section Intervention type Length [km] Estimated total cost [million ] Project status EIRR Rail (High Rail (High Rail (High Rail (High Rail (High Rail (Conventional line) Rail (High Austria Austria Austria Austria Austria Austria Austria Kufstein - Kundl/Radfeld Kundl/Radfeld - Innsbruck (Baumkirchen) New 24,00 27,40 Planned n.a. New 40, ,32 Completed n.a. Brenner Tunnel New 55, ,00 Freilassing- Salzburg PP1: Railway axis Berlin-Verona/Milano- Bologna-Napoli- Messina-Palermo PP1: Railway axis Berlin-Verona/Milano- Bologna-Napoli- Messina-Palermo PP1: Railway axis Berlin-Verona/Milano- Bologna-Napoli- Messina-Palermo PP17: Railway axis Paris-Strasbourg- Stuttgart-Wien- Bratislava PP17: Railway axis Paris-Strasbourg- Stuttgart-Wien- Bratislava PP17: Railway axis Paris-Strasbourg- Stuttgart-Wien- Bratislava PP22: Railway axis Athina-Sofia-Budapest- Wien-Praha- Nürnberg/Dresden Salzburg- Vienna Vienna - Bratislava (II) AT/HU Border- Wien Under Construction [some works planned/under study to start after 2013] Upgrade 5,00 203,23 Completed n.a. Upgrade 315, ,69 Completed n.a. Upgrade 48, ,15 Completed n.a. Upgrade 60,00 640,20 Under Construction [some works planned/under study to start after 2013] n.a. n.a. 44

52 serial number SEETAC code project Transport Mode Country Priority Project/ Corridor/ Route/ Title of programme or project Section Intervention type Length [km] Estimated total cost [million ] Project status EIRR 8 11 Rail (High Austria 9 13 Road Austria Road Bulgaria Inland Waterway, (RI System) Inland Waterway Rail (High Bulgaria Bulgaria Bulgaria Road Greece Road Greece PP22: Railway axis Athina-Sofia-Budapest- Wien-Praha- Nürnberg/Dresden PP25: Motorway axis Gdansk- Brno/Bratislava-Wien PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP18: Rhine/Meuse- Main-Danube inland waterway axis PP18: Rhine/Meuse- Main-Danube inland waterway axis PP22: Railway axis Athina-Sofia-Budapest- Wien-Praha- Nürnberg/Dresden PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest CZ/A Border - Linz CZ/AT border- Vienna Sofia-Kulata- EL/BG border Bottlenecks in Romania and Bulgaria Bulgaria (Bathin-Belene) Greek/Bulgarian Border-Kulata- Sofia-Vidin- Calafat Via Egnatia: section Ardanio- Ormenio- EL/BG Borders Section Attiki odos Upgrade 62,00 297,80 Under Construction [some works planned/under study to start after 2013] New 87, ,35 Completed n.a. New 132,78 738,00 Under Construction [some works planned/under study to start after 2013] Upgrade 0,00 15,00 Planned n.a. New 26,00 138,00 Completed n.a. New 269, ,00 Under Study n.a. New 124,00 230,00 Completed n.a. New 65, ,93 Completed n.a. n.a. n.a. 45

53 serial number SEETAC code project Transport Mode Country Priority Project/ Corridor/ Route/ Title of programme or project Section Intervention type Length [km] Estimated total cost [million ] Project status EIRR Road Greece Road Greece Rail (High Rail (High Rail (High Rail (High Rail (High Greece Greece Greece Hungary Hungary PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP22: Railway axis Athina-Sofia-Budapest- Wien-Praha- Nürnberg/Dresden PP29: Railway axis of the Ionian/Adriatic intermodal corridor PP29: Railway axis of the Ionian/Adriatic intermodal corridor PP6: Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača- Ljubljana-Budapest- Ukrainian border PP6: Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača- Ljubljana-Budapest- Ukrainian border Pathe: Section Korinthos- Athina- Thessalloniki Pathe: Concession Patra Korinthos Kulata-Athina (2255) Kozani- Kalambaka- Igoumenitsa Ioannina- Antirrio-Rio- Kalamata SI/HU border- Budapest Budapest- Ukrainian border Upgrade n.a. 4188,51 Under Construction n.a. Upgrade n.a. 1713,55 Under Construction n.a. Upgrade 623, ,23 Completed n.a. New 514, ,32 Under Construction [some works planned/under study to start after 2013] New 180, ,04 Planned n.a. Upgrade n.a. 1238,13 Under Study n.a. Rehabilitation n.a. 559,37 Under Study n.a. n.a. 46

54 serial number SEETAC code project Transport Mode Country Road Hungary Inland Waterway Rail (High Rail (High Rail (High Rail (High Rail (High Hungary Hungary Hungary Italy Italy Italy Priority Project/ Corridor/ Route/ Title of programme or project PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP18: Rhine/Meuse- Main-Danube inland waterway axis PP22: Railway axis Athina-Sofia-Budapest- Wien-Praha- Nürnberg/Dresden PP22: Railway axis Athina-Sofia-Budapest- Wien-Praha- Nürnberg/Dresden PP1: Railway axis Berlin-Verona/Milano- Bologna-Napoli- Messina-Palermo PP1: Railway axis Berlin-Verona/Milano- Bologna-Napoli- Messina-Palermo PP6: Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača- Ljubljana-Budapest- Ukrainian border Section Budapest- Nadlac Palkovicovo- Mohács Budapest- AT/HU border Budapest- Curtici Ring of Trent (lot 3) Fortezza- Verona (lot ) Intervention type Length [km] Estimated total cost [million ] Project status EIRR New n.a. 250,40 Under Construction n.a. Upgrade 0,00 313,22 Under Study n.a. Upgrade n.a. 495,74 Preparation of design for approval Rehabilitation n.a. 1101,74 Under Study n.a. New n.a. 1452,00 Under Study n.a. New 89, ,00 Completed n.a. Verona-Padova New n.a. 5130,00 Under Study n.a. n.a. 47

55 serial number SEETAC code project Transport Mode Country Priority Project/ Corridor/ Route/ Title of programme or project Section Intervention type Length [km] Estimated total cost [million ] Project status EIRR Rail (High Rail (High Rail (High Italy Italy Italy Rail Romania PP6: Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača- Ljubljana-Budapest- Ukrainian border PP6: Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača- Ljubljana-Budapest- Ukrainian border PP6: Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača- Ljubljana-Budapest- Ukrainian border PP22: Railway axis Athina-Sofia-Budapest- Wien-Praha- Nürnberg/Dresden Line AV/AC Venezia-Ronchi Sud Line AV/AC VE-TS Tratta Ronchi-Trieste Trieste-Divaca (italian part) Access infrastructure at Calafat New n.a. 4200,00 Under Study n.a. New 32, ,00 Under Study n.a. New n.a. 182,13 Under Study n.a. New 16,00 51,00 Completed n.a Rail (Increased Romania PP22: Railway axis Athina-Sofia-Budapest- Wien-Praha- Nürnberg/Dresden Curtici-Brasov Upgrade 480,331/ 505? 5546,12 Under Construction [some works planned/under study to start after 2013] n.a Rail (Increased Romania PP22: Railway axis Athina-Sofia-Budapest- Wien-Praha- Nürnberg/Dresden Predeal - Campina Upgrade 480,00 312,12 Completed n.a. 48

56 serial number SEETAC code project Transport Mode Country Priority Project/ Corridor/ Route/ Title of programme or project Section Intervention type Length [km] Estimated total cost [million ] Project status EIRR Rail (Increased Rail (Increased Rail (Increased Rail (Increased Rail (High Rail (High Rail (High Romania Romania Romania Romania Slovenia Slovenia Slovenia PP22: Railway axis Athina-Sofia-Budapest- Wien-Praha- Nürnberg/Dresden PP22: Railway axis Athina-Sofia-Budapest- Wien-Praha- Nürnberg/Dresden PP22: Railway axis Athina-Sofia-Budapest- Wien-Praha- Nürnberg/Dresden PP22: Railway axis Athina-Sofia-Budapest- Wien-Praha- Nürnberg/Dresden PP6: Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača- Ljubljana-Budapest- Ukrainian border PP6: Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača- Ljubljana-Budapest- Ukrainian border PP6: Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača- Ljubljana-Budapest- Ukrainian border Campina - Bucuresti Bucuresti Nord Bucuresti Baneasa; Fetesti Constanta Bucùresti Baneasa - Fetesti Upgrade 92,00 273,00 Completed n.a. Upgrade 84,00 469,53 Completed n.a. Upgrade 141,00 338,55 Completed n.a. Brasov - Predeal Upgrade 26,00 744,50 Under Study n.a. Trieste-Divaca (slovenian part) Divaca- Ljubljana (II) Koper-Divaca (II) New 24,00 823,13 Under Study n.a. Upgrade 8,00 229,37 Completed n.a. Upgrade 86,00 171,19 Completed n.a. 49

57 serial number SEETAC code project Transport Mode Rail (High Rail (High Rail (High Rail (High Country Slovenia Slovenia Slovenia Slovenia Priority Project/ Corridor/ Route/ Title of programme or project Section Koper-Divaca (I) Divaca- Ljubljana (I) PP6: Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača- Ljubljana-Budapest- Ukrainian border PP6: Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača- Ljubljana-Budapest- Ukrainian border PP6: Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača- Ljubljana-Budapest- Ukrainian border PP6: Railway axis Lyon-Trieste- Divača/Koper-Divača- Ljubljana-Budapest- Ukrainian border Ljubljana- SI/HU border (I) Ljubljana- SI/HU border (II) Intervention type Length [km] Estimated total cost [million ] New 30,00 800,00 Project status Under Construction [some works planned/under study to start after 2013] EIRR New 55, ,00 Under Study n.a. New 80, ,60 Upgrade 186, ,40 Under Construction [some works planned/under study to start after 2013] Under Construction [some works planned/under study to start after 2013] Rail (High Semmering Austria - Base Tunnel New 28,00 - Under Study n.a Klagenfurt:Graz Rail (High Austria - (Koralm Base Tunnel) New 91,00 - Under Construction n.a Road Italy - Venezia-Trieste Upgrade n.a. n.a. Under Construction n.a Under Construction Railway axis SKA Rail (High [some works Greece (Athina area) - Rio SKA-Rio Upgrade 199, ,51 planned/under study (Patras area) to start after 2013] n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 50

58 serial number SEETAC code project Transport Mode Country Rail Italy Road Romania Road Romania Road Romania Road Romania Road Romania Road Romania Road Romania Road Romania Priority Project/ Corridor/ Route/ Title of programme or project PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest Section Trieste-Udine- Villach (new Pontebbana) Nadlac - Arad Motorway and Connesction road Arad - Timisoara Motorway Intervention type Length [km] Estimated total cost [million ] Project status EIRR Upgrade n.a. n.a. Under Study n.a. New 38,87 229,10 Completed n.a. New 32,25 139,48 Completed n.a. Bypass Arad New 12,25 123,89 Completed n.a. Timisoara - Lugoj Motorway Lugoj - Deva Motorway, Lot 1 Deva - Orastie Motorway Orastie - Sibiu and Bypass Sebes Motorway, Lot 1 New 35,12 237,12 Completed n.a. New 99, ,34 Completed n.a. New 32,80 219,80 Completed n.a. New 82,05 582,07 Completed n.a. Bypass Sibiu Existent 21,60 61,44 Completed n.a. 51

59 serial number SEETAC code project Transport Mode Country Road Romania Road Romania Road Romania Road Romania Road Romania Inland Waterway Romania Priority Project/ Corridor/ Route/ Title of programme or project PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP7: Motorway axis Igoumenitsa/Patra- Athina-Sofia-Budapest PP18: Rhine/Meuse- Main-Danube inland waterway axis Section Sibiu - Pitesti Motorway Pitesti - Bucharest Motorway Bucharest Bypass Motorway Cernavoda - Constanta Motorway Bypass Constanta Intervention type Length [km] Estimated total cost [million ] Project status EIRR New 116, ,75 Planned n.a. Existent 111,20 0,00 Completed n.a. New 105, ,96 Planned n.a. New 51,31 353,39 Completed n.a. New 22,10 126,46 Completed n.a. Romania Upgrade 0, ,25 Under Study n.a. 66 WB1 Road FYROM Corridor X Demir Kapija Smokvica Upgrade 28,20 310,20 Financing secured n.a. 67 WB2 Road Bosnia and Kakanj - Corridor Vc Herzegovina Josanica New 45,00 350,00 Completed n.a.»»»» Josanica Vlakovo» 15,00 Under Construction n.a. 68 WB3 Road Albania Route 2b Hani Hotit Shkoder Upgrade 39,00 21,70 Under Construction n.a. 69 WB4 Road Albania Route 7 Milot Rreshen Upgrade 26,00 36,00 Completed n.a. 70 WB5 Road Albania Route 7 Kalimash Morine Upgrade 29,00 120,00 Completed n.a. 71 WB6 Road Bosnia and Herzegovina Corridor Vc Seslije Samac Upgrade 13,00 18,10 Completed n.a. 52

60 serial number SEETAC code project Transport Mode Country Priority Project/ Corridor/ Route/ Title of programme or project 72 WB7 Road Serbia Corridor X 73 WB8 Road Albania Route 7 74 WB9 Road Bosnia and Herzegovina»»»» Corridor Vc 75 WB10 Road Albania Corridor VIII 76 WB11 Road Albania Corridor VIII 77 WB12 Road Serbia Corridor X 78 WB13 Road Serbia Corridor X 79 WB14 Road Montenegro Route 4 80 WB15 Road Albania Route 2c 81 WB16 Road Serbia Corridor Xc 82 WB17 Rail Croatia Corridor X Section Belgrade bypass, section Ostruznica Orlovaca Rreshen Kalimash Drivusa - Kakanj Zenica sjever Drivusa Rogozhine bypass Qafe Thane Pogradec Leskovac Presevo Nis border with Bulgaria Eastern mini bypass Podgorica Tepelene and Gjirokaster bypass Nis border with Bulgaria Remote Rail Traffic Control System Savski Marof Zagreb Tovarnik Intervention type Length [km] Estimated total cost [million ] Project status EIRR New 8,00 24,00 Completed n.a. Upgrade 61,00 250,00 Completed n.a. New 24,00 230,00 Under Construction n.a.» 11,00 Financing secured n.a. New 4,50 6,40 Under Construction n.a. Upgrade 32,00 44,60 Under Construction n.a. New 73,30 476,00 Financing secured n.a. New 31,80 180,00 Under Construction n.a. New 6,50 20,00 Under Construction n.a. New 23,00 33,00 Financing secured n.a. New 52,00 283,00 Under Construction n.a. Upgrade 329,00 23,40 Completed n.a. 53

61 serial number SEETAC code project Transport Mode Country Priority Project/ Corridor/ Route/ Title of programme or project 83 WB18 Rail Croatia Corridor X 84 WB19 Rail Croatia Corridor X 85 WB20 Rail FYROM Corridor X 86 WB21 Rail FYROM Corridor X 87 WB22 Road»»»» Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina Corridor Vc 88 WB23 Road Albania Corridor VIII»» Section Okucani - Novska Zagreb Main Station signalling and interlocking system Rail signalling and telecommunicati ons Tabanovci Veles Gevgelija Common Control System Center in Trubarevo Vukosavlje Karuse Karuse - Banlozi Medine Miljkovici Rodoc Qukes - Qafe Plloce Intervention type Length [km] Estimated total cost [million ] Project status EIRR Rehabilitation 19,50 38,50 Under Construction n.a. Upgrade n/a 17,90 Under Construction n.a. Upgrade 215,00 6,00 Financing secured n.a. Upgrade n/a n/a Completed n.a. New 123, ,00»» Feasibility Study completed»» 34 New and Upgrade 35,00 100,00 Prefeasibility Study completed

62 serial number SEETAC code project Transport Mode Country Priority Project/ Corridor/ Route/ Title of programme or project 89 WB25 Road FYROM Corridor VIII»» FYROM»»» FYROM»»» FYROM»»» FYROM» 90 WB26 Road Serbia Corridor X 91 WB29 Road Bosnia and Herzegovina Route 2b 92 WB30 Road Montenegro Route 2b 93 WB31 Road Albania Route 2c 94 WB33 Road Montenegro Route 4 95 WB34 Road Serbia Route 4 96 WB35 Road Kosovo Route 6a»»»» 97 WB36 Rail Croatia Corridor Vb Section Romanovce - Kriva Palanka Stenkovec - Blace Gostivar Kafasan Trebenishte Ohrid Struga - Podmolje Strazevica - Bubanj Potok Brod na Drini (Foca) - Hum (Scepan Polje) Berat - Tepelene (Luftinje) Smokovac Mateshevo Belgrade - Cacak (R5) - Pozega Lipjan - Kacanik Kacanik - Hani i Elezit Dugo Selo Krizevci Intervention type New and Upgrade Length [km] Estimated total cost [million ] Project status EIRR 279,50 831,20 Design completed -» ,70»» 143,00 558,50»»»»» New 9,70 96,50 New 23,25 62,00 Rehabilitation and New 39,00 62,00 Feasibility Study completed Feasibility Study completed Project identified and Terms of Reference (ToR) prepared New 43,00 210,00 Design completed 11 New and Upgrade 41,00 856,00 Feasibility Study completed New 133,50 786,00 Financing secured 11 New 56,00 683,00 Design completed 12»» Upgrade 38,00 198,03 Feasibility Study completed n.a

63 serial number SEETAC code project Transport Mode Country Priority Project/ Corridor/ Route/ Title of programme or project Section Intervention type Length [km] Estimated total cost [million ] Project status EIRR 98 WB37 Rail FYROM Corridor VIII Kicevo - Feasibility Study New 134,00 730,00 Albanian border completed 8»»»» Kumanovo - Kriva Palanka»» 99 WB38 Rail Albania Corridor VIII Durres - Feasibility Study Rehabilitation 177,20 114,50 Rrogozhine completed 6,9»»»» Vore - Milot»»»»» Durres Vore Tirana»»»»»» Vore - Milot»»»»»» Durres - Rrogozhine»» 100 WB40 Rail Croatia Corridor X Novska - Dugo Selo Rehabilitation 81,30 255,00 Design completed n.a. 101 WB44 Rail Montenegro Route 4 Trebesica - Bratonozici Rehabilitation n.a. 19,80 Design completed n.a.»»»» Vrbnica - Bar»» 102 WB47 Drina Inland Bosnia and Upgrade and Feasibility Study Sava River confluence 337,00 22,60 Waterway Herzegovina Rehabilitation completed Jasenovac WB WB WB WB52 Inland Waterway Inland Waterway Inland Waterway Inland Waterway Serbia Sava River Belgrade - BIH border Croatia Sava River Port of Osijek Rehabilitation and Upgrade New and Upgrade 211,00 15,00 Croatia Sava River Brcko Sisak Rehabilitation 385,00 55,00 Croatia Sava River Port of Vukovar Rehabilitation n.a. 21,46 Feasibility Study completed n.a. 46,74 Design completed Feasibility Study completed Feasibility Study completed

64 The majority of the projects in the list of the SEETAC project concerns railway projects (50 projects - 47% of total), road projects follow (47 projects - 44% of total) and finally there are included 9 Inland Waterways projects. The most of them are in the territory of Romania, Austria and Albania. Figure 50 Distribution of SEETAC projects by transport mode (left) and country (right) The following figure presents all the SEETAC projects distributed in the countries of the South East Europe and per transport mode. It gets clear that in Albania, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina the most of the proposed projects from the SEETAC list concern the road sector. In Slovenia all of the projects concern the rail sector and the countries with mainly rail projects in their territories, among others, are Austria, Italy, Hungary, Croatia and FYROM. Finally, the most of the Inland Waterways projects are located in Croatia and Bulgaria. Overall, it is observed that the majority of the proposed rail projects (and high speed) are located at the EU Member States, whereas the most of the road and Inland Waterway projects are located at the Western Balkans. Figure 51 Distribution of SEETAC projects by transport mode, country and by country status (EUMember states and Western Balkans) in number of projects 57

65 Concerning the projects databases from which the SEETAC projects have emerged, the most of them represent rail TEN-T projects (40 projects - 38% of total) and road Projects for the SEETO Multi - Annual Development Plans follow (26 projects - 24% of total). Figure 52 Distribution of SEETAC projects by transport mode and within TEN-T and SEETO projects (number of projects) Among the 106 transport projects of SEETAC list, there are differences concerning their status and maturity. The distribution of projects according to their status is presented in Figure 53. Figure 53 Status of SEETAC projects Concerning the estimated cost of the projects, ,6 million EUR (67% of the total estimated cost) concerns rail projects, ,2 million EUR (31% of the total cost) concern road projects and the rest 2% (1734,3 million EUR) concerns inland waterways projects. Therefore, the prioritisation of the investments in rail-related projects within the SEETAC projects can be presented clearly. 58

66 More specifically, for the EU Member States, the 86% of the total estimated cost of the projects refers to rail projects and the 12% refers to road projects. The respective percentages for the Western Balkans are estimated at 23% and 75%. These percentages highlight the fact that in the territory of the Western Balkans the most interventions/ investments are still focused on the road sector. However this is a proof of the uneven development of roads in the two networks and moreover it is due to the implementation of large scale high speed Railway projects. Figure 54 Distribution of SEETAC projects cost by transport mode and country in million EUR Furthermore, among the projects included in the SEETAC list, the financing is secured for the majority of the projects (55 projects - 52% of the total), because either they are completed, or under construction, or finances are allocated or at least secured for them, according to the data provided. The projects, for which there are still investments needs, are these which are under study, planned, with feasibility of prefeasibility study completed, etc. (41 projects - 39% of the total). Finally, there are some projects which are under construction, but a part of the works is currently under study or planned, planned to start after 2013 (10 projects - 9% of the total). For this last portion of projects it is assumed that investments are needed partly for their section which works are pending. Concerning the projects estimated cost, ,98 million EUR are allocated or secured (41% of the estimated cost of all the projects of the SEETAC list), the estimated amount ,18 million EUR represents the investments needs (38% of the estimated cost of all the projects of the SEETAC list), while the ,95 million EUR (21% of the total estimated cost) refers to the projects which are partly under construction and a part of the works is under study or planned to start after

67 Figure 55 Distribution of SEETAC projects by their need for investments in number of projects (left) and amount of investments (right) Figure 56 Distribution of SEETAC projects with investment needs by their maturity in number of projects (left) and amount of investments (right) As shown in the Figure 56, among the projects with investment needs, 16 projects are currently under study, 5 are planned, the Feasibility Study is prepared for 11 of them and the design is completed for 6 of them. Concerning their investments needs, the highest amounts according to their estimated costs are respectively needed for the projects under study (22.822,5 million EUR or the 38% of the estimated cost of the projects with investment needs), the projects which are currently planned (6.570,1 million EUR or the 19% of the investment needs) and thereafter the projects with completed the feasibility study (3.450,1 million EUR - 10% of the investment needs) and the design (2.045,7 million EUR - 6% of the investment needs). Concerning the distribution of investment needs of the particular SEETAC projects by country, from the following figure (Figure 57), it gets clear that the biggest amount is focused at projects located in the territory of Italy, Romania, Hungary, Slovenia and Bulgaria. 60

68 Figure 57 Distribution of investment needs of SEETAC projects by country in million EUR More specifically, at country level, the countries with the projects with the biggest investments needs are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo 9, Albania and Serbia for road projects, Italy, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Greece, Croatia and Austria for rail projects and Romania, Croatia, Hungary and Serbia for inland waterways projects. Overall, similar conclusions to those that have emerged concerning all of the SEETAC projects (with and without investment needs) can emerge regarding the projects with investment needs. The majority of the investment needs within the SEETAC projects with investment needs are focused on rail sector (69%) only 26% of the total investments needs are dedicated to road projects. For the EU Member States, the 78% of the investments needs refers to rail projects and the 17% refers to road projects. The respective percentages for the Western Balkans are opposite, estimated at 21% and 76%. 9 This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence. 61

69 Figure 58 Distribution of investment needs of SEETAC projects by country and transport mode in million EUR 7. Conclusions and perspectives for the SEE Transport Network From the topological consideration of the Pan-European Networks according to Bunge (1962) and according to the networks attributes that Dupuy (1985) and Chesnais (1982) later defined, it emerges that it is a network characterised by anisotropy, but has high density (networks length per surface unit that they serve), multiplicity and high connectivity capacity of nodes in Western Europe, in contrast to their regional development in SEE. Additionally in the Western Europe we can observe homogeneous and exclusive sub-systems (high speed railway networks TGV/LGV, aviation networks, conventional railway networks and closed motorways networks), which are adequately interconnected, with elements of interoperability and intermodality. On the contrary, on the SEE network, there is high heterogeneity, which, combined with the physical barriers, the political instability and the various institutional or technical barriers at borders, creates a complex area for transport. In this area there should be developed multimodal and efficient transport systems. Obviously, the SEE transport infrastructure needs further development for the connectivity and accessibility of the countries in the region, apart from the general aim to serve the needs for economic, social and territorial cohesion. The transport networks in SEE, defined through the various planning exercises briefly described in this report, are not arbitrary. They are pre-existing, historical networks, a priori strategic for the countries concerned, which have been adequately developed in the past, but due to economic reasons have been neglected and did not manage to follow the development achieved in the EU countries, so they lag behind the EU standards. Therefore, despite the scarcity of funds, the development of these infrastructures is one-way road. The discussion in the process of the new TEN-T regulation definition includes firstly the inclusion of the SEE strategic network in the Comprehensive TEN-T (which in extension would mean inclusion of parts of it in the Core TEN-T upon accession of a country in the EU, i.e. Croatia in 2013) and secondly, the provision of the possibility of financing the development of this network 62