Production, supply and demand of
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1 Production, supply and demand of DDGS worldwide
2 The DDGS PHENOMENON What is DDGS Where does it emanate from? The Industry of DDGS Species performance Production Supply Demand Industry acceptance Research/Availability/Pr oduct consistency Trading
3 The DDGS PHENOMENON Renewable Fuel Standard program December 19/07 requires that 40% of the corn crop be made into ethanol It will require about million acres to corn 15 billion gallons' of ethanol to be mix in the nations gasoline supply by 2022 * Food Cost
4 *Food Cost Shifting quantities A demand change/program g change Is Ethanol the reason? Expanding world economies Cheap dollar Dramatic run in rice/wheat Demographics
5 DDGS Industry WHAT IS IN A BUSHEL OF CORN
6 Modern Fuel Ethanol Plant 2005 Broin and Associates, Inc.
7 Plant DDG output 40 ml gallons = 120,000 short tons annual DDGS 60 ml gallons = 180,000 st annual 100 ml gallons = 300,000 st annual Rail car capacity per 70 ft jumbo hopper w/load of 92 mt is 3,000/st depending ratio of truck to rail. Max (100%) 30 cars a week (60 % rail is 18 cars a week) 100 ml/6000 / week or 40 cars/week
8 Commodity Process 2005 Broin and Associates, Inc.
9 Feed Consumption by Species Industry 2005 Swine 13% Poultry 5% Dairy 45% Beef 37% Industry 2007 Swine 11% Poultry 5% Dairy 42% Beef 42%
10 Value of Dakota Gold BPX Dakota Gold BPX Replaces corn and wheat as a calorie source Replaces soybean meal as an amino acid source Replaces phosphates as a source of P Provides choline, linoleic acid and xanthophyl Can save over USD per metric ton
11 Supply & Demand
12 ****Energy demand drives corn use
13
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15 Acres for Ethanol
16
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18 Dried Distillers Grains Production n Tons Millio Proj POET Nutrition Industry Source: RFA
19 Distillers Grains Production Will Increase Rapidly in Line With Ethanol Output 35,000 31,270 alent 30, Shor rt Tons, DD DGS Equiv 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 15,830 22, / / / / / / / / / /09 Oct. -SepCropYear Sep.Crop
20
21 Geography of the U.S. Ethanol Industry Ethanol Facility (Operational Status) Construction Idle Operating Proposed Corn Density (Bushels per Sq. Mile) 40,000 to 63,700 20,000 to 40,000 10,000 to 20,000 1,000 to 10, to 1,000 0 to Informa Economics, Inc. Sources: Renewable Fuels Association; Informa Economics
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24 Global Net Imports of Distillers Grains , , r t T o n s S h o 2, ,500 1, '00-'01 '01-'02 '02-'03 '03-'04 '04-'05 '05-'06 '06-'07 '07-' Calendar Year DDGS Production
25 Worldwide Agriculture Growth
26 2008 Transportation Modes Truck Vessel Rail Barge Container
27 Constraints to expanding exports: Cost of transportation Technical limitation Financial Infrastructure/S/D Customer Service Positive factors favoring export growth Proven Nutrient Profile Product Safety Consistent Supply Bright Golden Yellow Color Enhanced Flowability
28 World Wide Economic Crisis
29 Trading Realities of the World Volatility Trends Product Procurement/Risk Management
30 US economic crisis/world economic crisis Ambiguity Future is uncertain No clear path and disrupted timing Major shifts in all business model, all set plans are ineffective
31 When in Rome Information Gather as much and up to date as possible Success come to those that have the data and based decision on facts/not a guess US/Ag sector relatively unchanged by all of the economic chaos in the world.
32 Future Grain Trading Realities 08/09 World Grain Crop production is up Ocean Freight is at historical Lows Container freight has to follow Grain Prices low Energy prices low US production question is yields/foreign production is both yields and credit 08/09 grain crop will not have price rationing
33 Corn Futures CBOT 11/10 CLOSES: Ticker Last CHG High 383' 4s 8' 0 390' 0 372' 401' 4s 8' 0 407' 6 390' 413' 6s 8' 2 419' 0 403' 425' 2s 8' 2 429' 0 414' 2 +CLZ NGZ RBZ ' 0s 28' 2 946' 2 910' 2 DXY$Y DOLLAR INDU.X DOW JONES
34 CBOT CZ/ mt FOB GULF Corn - DDGS Prices $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $50.00 FOB DDGS Price FOB No.2 Corn Price Corn - DDGS Price $86.00 $66.00 $- $(50.00) $(16. 00) 10 /6 / W eekly Date 19 Dollars per Metric Ton 3/2/2007 4/2/2007 5/2/2007 6/2/2007 7/2/2007 8/2/2007 9/2/ /2/ /2/ /2/2007 1/2/2008 2/2/2008 3/2/2008 4/2/2008 5/2/2008 6/2/2008 7/2/2008 8/2/2008 9/2/2008
35 Corn Trade Net Imports 07/08 08/09 09/10 Ethanol/DDGS Plant Location CBOT Corn Price, Basis, Local Demand, etc. Truck Freight Plant Location, demand, Fuel Increase, etc. Transloading Fee Long-term contract, Spot Demand, Fuel Increase, etc. Rail Freight Long-term contract, Fuel Increase, etc. Container Freight Long-term contract, Fuel Increase, etc. 21 MMT
36 DDG into MX/CA/NLA/ELA/CARIB Basin Plant CBOT/Rail freight to loading site 355/40' ctr 475/40' ctr Transloading: $14.20/MT $19.00/MT DMX-7 mold inhibitor: $5.00/MT ($125/40' ctr) (SE Asia, not Japan) Phyto Cert: $2.00/MT ($50/40' ctr) $2.00/MT ($50/40' ctr) *** Cert of Origin: $25/shipment $25/shipment Forwarding chgs: $65/shipment $65/shipment Bulk Vessel DDG FOB/center gulf $ Doc s/fwd chgs 50/shpt/same Ocean freight /Ver $20.00/mt/25.00/mt/to COL/VEN Ocean freight to East LA $35 CIF MX/GUAT/CR $195.00/mt CIF $200 to N LA to /211.60/mt E LA CIF Caribbean $190/mt
37
38 Inverse relationship
39 New Crop Strategies/2008/09 Basis trading Hedge Pricing Futures Options Gulf Premiums info Container availability Bulk availability GSM
40 Mexico Market DDG Profile DDGS DDGS V.E.G (DDGS) U.S. imports 2003 = 54, = , = 189, = 428, = 815, = 1.5 million?
41 Trading Trends 2006 US exported 1.25 mmt 2007 US exported 2.36 mmt (up 88% from 06) Mexico's 07 imports was 700K (30% of total US exports) Tight credit a major issue for all foreign buyers To arrive trading w/less in house inventory Lower ocean freight/lower container freight to follow Stronger dollar Over all export may be revise lower
42 Stronger US currency MX Peso down 23% vs dollar Colombia Peso down 17% Brazil Real down 26% Egyptian Pound down 1.1% China Yuan down 6.5% Taiwan dollar down 3.0% Greater financial risk Opportunity of trading bulk vs containers Will energy market stay this competitive? Can crude bounce back to 100? Massive cut back in OPEC members is required the short answer is : unlikely
43 Economics of Grain Handling Optimum usage of rail equipment Rapid load unload Efficient usage of storage Constant rate of DG usage Price competitiveness of DG with nutrient profile is most effective method of reducing cost of production
44 The bottom line To be fair, the reality is : 1. That the market doesn't care, and is simply trying to trade Chinese credit packages 2. US auto manufacturing risks, slumps in crude and wild gyrations in currencies. 3. Coupled with major media coverage of massive index fund redemptions, this is not a market which cares about fundamentals
45 PREGUNTAS
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