Rising Flathead Valley 32 nd Annual Montana Economic Outlook Seminar February 6, 2007
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1 Rising Flathead Valley 32 nd Annual Montana Economic Outlook Seminar February 6, 2007 Center for Business Information and Research Flathead Valley Community College Director: Gregg Davis, Ph.D.
2
3 Business Sector Inter-Relationships Linkages Suppliers Labor Utilities Parts Resources Transportation Sector Consumers Exports Value Added Manuf. Consumption by HH
4 County-Level Database Components Industry Output Employment Value Added Final Demands for Goods and Services
5 Industry Output Value of an industry s total production Source: BEA BLS
6 Employment full and part time workers Source: ES202 REIS
7 Value Added Employee Compensation Wages, Salaries, Benefits Proprietary Income payments received by self-employed Other Property Type Income Rents, royalties and dividends Indirect Business Taxes Excise taxes, property taxes, fees, licenses Source: ES202, REIS, BEA, Derived from BEA GSP
8 Final Demands End Use Is exports hh government inventory Source: NIPA
9 A NAICS Sector is: collection of businesses with similar production methods who produce similar products
10 The Economy Total Economic Activity = Inter-Industry Transactions and Final Demands
11 Multipliers Capture backward linkages: Inter-Industry Transactions Household Consumption
12 Imports leakage in our economy unmet demand reduce multiplier
13 Multipliers Do Not Capture Forward Linkages: Industries contributing to value added Exports Households Particularly significant for early value added industries
14 Delineation of Study Area Flathead County 2 Digit NAICS: 20 Sectors 3 Digit NAICS: 81 Sectors 4 Digit NAICS: 217 Sectors
15 Biggest Bang for the Buck Employment Utilities Manufacturing Information Real Estate and Rental Multiplier
16 But Ability to Add Employment Must Be Considered Direct * Indirect * Induced * Total * Multiplier Utilities Manufacturing Information Real Estate * Employment per million $ change in final demand
17 Smaller Bang for the Buck Employment Administrative and Waste Services Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Multiplier
18 Again, the Ability to Add Employment Direct * Indirect * Induced * Total * Multiplier Admin & Waste Services Arts, Entert & Recreation Accommodation & Food Serv * Employment per million $ change in final demand
19 Economy Wide Benefits Sectors Affected low Multiplier Value high
20 Total Economy-Wide Job Creation Total jobs per million $ change in final demand Jobs created in other sectors per direct job Educational Serv Administrative & Waste Serv Arts, Entert. & Recreation Accommodation & Food Serv Health & Social Serv Retail
21 Total Economy-Wide Job Creation Total jobs per million $ change in final demand Jobs created in other sectors per direct job Utilities Manufacturing Information Real Estate Construction
22 Employee Compensation Resulting From per million $ change in final demand (Direct Effect) Additional employee compensation per direct Real Estate $34,549 $3.70 Utilities $59,069 $2.00 Ag/Forestry/Fish $95,841 $1.58 Manufacturing $145,406 $1.25
23 Employee Compensation Resulting From per million $ change in final demand (Direct Effect) Additional employee compensation per direct Government $498,548 $0.32 Administrative & Waste Services Health & Social Services Management of Companies $437,759 $0.53 $422,660 $0.54 $401,775 $0.52
24 Economic Growth Increase Labor Increase Capital Improve efficiency of each
25 Labor Component of Growth Increase Labor Force employment quantity: maximize jobs quality: maximize income
26 Economy-Wide Growth Endogenous: population, policy, preferences for local goods and services Exogenous: regional and national demand basic industry focus
27 Endogenous Growth Opportunities EGO EGO = total local production exports to other regions total local demand for local and/or imported goods & services
28 EGO 1: local demand met by local production EGO < 1: additional local production needed import substitution
29 Additional Considerations for EGO < 1 1) Availability of resources for production: backward linkages 2) Economy of scale for import price competition 3) Forward linkages: intermediate and final demand
30 Flathead 20 Sector Economy EGO < 1 Employment Mining Manufacturing.53 3,190 Wholesale Transportation & Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance.79 1,512 Professional, Scientific, Technical.66 1,221 Management of Companies Administrative and Waste Services.78 2,378 Educational Services
31 Flathead 20 Sector Economy EGO < 1 34% of Employment Base 33% of Total Private Firms All but 2 pay above average annual wage/job* *Administrative & Waste Services *Educational Services
32 EGO <.50 5 Digit NAICS Colleges Home Health Care Office Administrative Services Photographic Services Scientific Research & Development Management Consulting Services Computer Systems Design Services Specialized Design Services Sound Recording Industries Clothing and Accessories Jewelry Manufacturing Dental Labs
33 Employment 2 Digit NAICS NAICS 2- Digit Sector Total Economy-Wide Employment Generated per (000,000) $ of Output Economy-Wide Multiplier Rank Educational Services Adm. & Waste Services Arts, Enter-Recreation Accommodation & Food Other Services Health & Social Services Retail Professional, Scient & Tech Construction Transportation & Warehse
34 Employment 2 Digit NAICS, Cont. NAICS 2- Digit Sector Government & Non- NAICS Total Economy-Wide Employment Generated per (000,000) $ of Output Economy-Wide Multiplier Rank Wholesale Management of Companies Ag, Forestry, Fish, Hunting Finance & Insurance Information 13 3 Mining Real Estate & Rental Manufacturing Utilities
35 Employee Compensation 2 Digit NAICS NAICS 2- Digit Sector Total Economy-Wide Emp. Comp. Generated per Million $ of Output Economy-Wide Multiplier Rank Educational Services 915, Administrative & Waste Government & Non NAICS 661, Health & Social Services 650, Management of Companies 608, Transportation & Warehse 560, Retail 538, Wholesale 504, Professional, Scient & Tech 498,451 6 Accommodation & Food 478,749 12
36 Employee Compensation 2 Digit NAICS, NAICS 2- Digit Sector Cont. Total Economy-Wide Emp. Comp. Generated per Million $ of Output Economy-Wide Multiplier Rank Arts, Entertainment & Rec 466,870 9 Other Services 462,281 8 Construction 461,625 5 Mining 433, Finance & Insurance 422, Information 388,350 7 Manufacturing 327,464 4 Ag, Forestry, Fish & Hunt 247,472 3 Utilities 171,228 2 Real Estate & Rental 162,238 1
37 Economy-Wide Employee Compensation/Total Economy-Wide Employment Government & Non NAICS 37,599 Management of Companies 36,279 Mining 35,135 Manufacturing 32,812 Utilities 32,368 Transportation & Warehousing 31,425 Information 29,873 Wholesale 29,677 Finance and Insurance 29,420 Health & Social Services 25,919 Construction 23,070 Educational Services 22,434 Retail 21,685 Professional, Scientific and Tech 20,107 Administrative & Waste Management 17,059 Ag, Forestry, Fish & Hunt 16,721 Accommodation & Food 16,418 Other Services 16,237 Real Estate & Rental 16,031 Art, Entertainment & Rec 12,922
38 Economy-Wide Employee Compensation/Economy-Wide Employment Top 10 3-Digit NAICS Transportation Eqpmt Primary Metal Mfg Fabricated Metal Production Wood Products Management of Companies Government & Non NAICs Credit Inmediation & Related Postal Service Mining Rail Transportation 47668
39 Economy-Wide Employee Compensation/Economy-Wide Employment Middle of the Pack 3-Digit NAICS Miscellaneous Mfg Construction Textile Mills Educational Svcs Nursing & Residential Care Chemical Manufacturing General Merch Stores Forestry & Logging Apparel Mfg Furniture & Home Furnishings Beverage & Tobacco 24224
40 Economy-Wide Employee Compensation/Economy-Wide Employment Bottom 10 3-Digit NAICS Performing Arts & Spectator Sports 4012 Livestock 4881 Non-Store Retailers 6348 Private Households 7301 Social Assistance 8107 Ag & Forestry Svcs 8563 Mining Services 9295 Crop Farming 9534 Transit & Ground Passengers Misc Retailers 11143
41 Now To Combine Employee Compensation per Worker with EGO Identified Sectors...
42 EGO Sectors with Above Average Added Economy-Wide Employee Compensation Per Added Economy-Wide Worker (Average $22,666) 3-Digit NAICS Sector EGO < > EGO < 80 Health & Personal Care Stores $24,254 Printing & Related $25,001 Plastics & Rubber Products $26,211 Truck Transportation $26,336 Waste Management & Remediation $26,419 Warehousing & Storage $26,573 Wholesale Trade $28,982 Internet & Data Processing $29,443 Machinery Manufacturing $32,197 Management of Companies $36,036
43 EGO Sectors with Below Average Added Economy-Wide Employee Compensation Per Added Economy-Wide Worker (Average $22,666) 3-Digit NAICS Sector EGO < 50 50> EGO < 80 Textile Mills $21,826 Misc Manufacturing $21,758 Professional, Scient, Tech $19,161 Securities & Other Finance $15,520 Food Products $15,464 Clothing & Accessory Store $15,123 Motion Pic & Sound Rec $14,122 Funds, Trusts & Oth Fin $13,305 Transit & Ground Passengrs $10,534 Agric & Forestry Services $8,563 Non-Store Retailers $6,348
44 OWL Index (Out of Warranty but still Living) Commodity Proportion of Budget Commodity Proportion of Budget Housing Housing Transportation Health care Food Food Health care Transportation Food at home 8.75 Food at home 9.24 Utlts, fuels, & pub svcs 8.29 Utlts, fuels, & pub svcs 8.88 Health insurance 6.89 Health insurance 8.21 Cash contributions 6.43 Cash contributions 5.99 Vehicle purchases 6.32 Other vehicle expenses 4.66 Prsnl Ins. and pensions 5.12 Food away from home 4.42
45 By Gabe Martin Alien Economists
46 Rising Flathead Valley 32 nd Annual Montana Economic Outlook Seminar February 6, 2007 Center for Business Information and Research Flathead Valley Community College Director: Gregg Davis, Ph.D.
STATE OF HAWAI'I. No. of. Total Average Rep. Units Average Quarterly Quarterly Industry March Employment Wages Wages January February March
STATE OF HAWAI'I TOTAL, including government 37,439 598,205 6,028,316,620 10,077 596,822 598,744 599,049 TOTAL GOVERNMENT 6 123,628 1,526,182,323 12,345 121,692 123,988 125,205 Federal 1 32,650 483,102,256
STATE OF HAWAI'I. No. of. Total Average Rep. Units Average Quarterly Quarterly Industry September Employment Wages Wages July August September
STATE OF HAWAI'I TOTAL, including government 37,044 581,957 6,080,565,857 10,448 581,677 578,368 585,826 TOTAL GOVERNMENT 6 118,031 1,532,738,257 12,986 118,907 114,660 120,525 Federal 1 34,864 560,380,978
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