Microdynamics of Industrial Location Work-in-progress

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1 Microdynamics of Industrial Location Work-in-progress Vivek Ghosal P r o f e s s o r, S c h o o l o f E c o n o m i c s G e o r g i a I n s t i t u t e o f T e c h n o l o g y A t l a n t a U S A Frank Southworth P r i n c i p a l R e s e a r c h S c i e n t i s t S c h o o l o f C i v i l & E n v i r o n m e n t a l E n g i n e e r i n g G e o r g i a I n s t i t u t e o f T e c h n o l o g y A t l a n t a U S A Georgia DOT Presentation Atlanta, GA. June 2013.

2 Motivation States and Nations offer incentives to attract businesses Project examines the effects of new industrial location Shorter-run Immediate employment and investment effects Location of complementary businesses Longer-run Business and economic development of region Development and infusion of human capital Transportation networks, congestion, infrastructure investments Project is strictly work in progress Completion date December 2013 Will overview framework and selected items today 2

3 Project Specifics Automobile Assembly Plant Location Effects of location of Kia and Hyundai plants in GA and AL Hyundai plant in AL, first autos produced in 2005 Kia plant in GA, first autos produced in 2009 Kia plant in Troup County, GA Truly rural county GA offers $500 million in incentives State-of-the-art advanced modern manufacturing facility locates in West Point, GA Starts with 250,000 autos/year, now at 360,000 autos/year Potential for radical transformative change for the region Statistically identify effects Typically this is a big challenge Would not have been possible if this were Detroit Relatively clean natural experiment Troup County was rural with no existing business-economic base 3

4 Map 1 Kia and Hyundai County Areas 4 Kia Hyundai

5 Business and Economic Effects American Community Survey: we use two 3-year waves , and Perfect segmentation for the Kia experiment Plant locates in 2008 November 5 We study wide-ranging effects for example: Changes in Population Migration Changes in Occupations (manuf., retail, education, healthcare, etc) Changes in Population and Income Changes in Schooling Changes in Educational Attainment Car registrations

6 State County Core Ss ds abr popus popfor popnat npop AL AL AL Autauga AL Bullock 0 AL Bulter AL Chambers AL Crenshaw 0 AL Elmore AL Lee AL Lowndes 0 AL Macon AL Montgomery AL Pike AL Randolph AL Russell AL Tallapoosa GA GA GA Atlanta MSA GA Harris GA Heard 0 GA Meriwether GA Talbot 0 GA Troup GA Upson Population Migration Patterns

7 State County Core tclfm tclfse tclfsa tclfeco tclfem tclfews tclfere tclfetra tclfefin tclfeedu AL AL AL Core Avg AL Non-core Avg AL Autauga AL Bullock 0 AL Bulter AL Chambers AL Crenshaw 0 AL Elmore AL Lee AL Lowndes 0 AL Macon AL Montgomery AL Pike AL Randolph AL Russell AL Tallapoosa GA GA GA Core Avg GA Non-core Avg GA Atlanta MSA GA Harris GA Heard 0 GA Meriwether GA Talbot 0 GA Troup GA Upson Occupational Patterns

8 Automotive Supply Chain An automobile has several thousand components 8 We construct somewhat aggregated supply-chain Purpose? Allows us to identify and track components Distinguishes components by category

9

10 Microeconometric Analysis Estimate multipliers for each of our business and economic variables Paper by Greenstone 2010 provides good review and framework related to theory and econometrics 10 Estimate multipliers for transportation related effects Demand for transportation is derived demand from area business and economic growth

11 Tracking The Automotive Supply Chain 11 Track component suppliers who locate locally Track component suppliers from further away: S. Korea, Japan, Germany, Thailand, among others Track component inflows Demand for transportation, by mode Transportation Links in An Automotive Industry Supply Chain (Generic) Foreign Parts Suppliers Domestic Parts Suppliers Parts Parts Parts Distribution Centers Manufacturing Plant (OEM) Parts Vehicles Foreign (Export) Markets Mixing Centers (Rail) Vehicle Distribution Centers Local Dealerships

12 Supply Chain Local Component Suppliers & Truck Routes 12 We have created a database that contains both local and foreign parts suppliers for the Hyundai and Kia plants located in AL and GA.

13 Supply Chain- Global Component Suppliers & Intermodal Transportation Links Foreign Suppliers: Country GA: Suppliers AL: Suppliers Total Korea US Japan Germany Others Total

14 Shipping Data Completed and analyzing port shipping data for inflow of components Savannah (GA), Brunswick (GA), Mobile (AL) Shipments in and out Hyundai, Kia Local component suppliers as much as possible Once this is done at least a reasonable snapshot 14 We know exact auto models being built and their production volumes We know major components per auto Shipping volumes Focus is on only major components

15 Transportation Freight Supply Chains & Their Costs Freight flows: detailed data on local supplier volumes (various sources) and global import shipments (proprietary data source) Multimodal/Intermodal/International freight transportation network database: We are currently adding links and nodes to the latest version of the ORNL North America/Trans-Oceanic Freight Network (public domain) database: as used to route freight in past U.S. Commodity Flow Surveys. 15 Freight transport cost modeling: of raw materials, auto parts, finished autos, estimated transport costs between supply chain participants and SC tiers, using a number of different sources (ATRI, CFIRE, ITIC-ST, LMT, STB, WFR) Network links carry mode specific line haul, intermodal transfer and warehouse/ distribution center/seaport storage and handling costs.

16 Multimodal/Intermodal Transportation Routing & Freight Cost Modeling Network Database 16 National Highway Network Database National Rail Network Database National Waterway Network Database Global Seaways Network Database Intermodal, Truck, Rail and Water Terminals Databases Operational Rail Network Database Operational Waterways Network Database Combines Inland, Intra- Coastal, Great Lakes & Trans-Oceanic Links ORNL Unified Multimodal/Intermodal Freight Network highway to terminal transfer terminal to rail transfer Terminal rail line haul (storage) Railroad #1 Railroad #2 Terminal (storage) Railroad interline origin highway network link(s) notional local loading/access link to highway network destination Route Impedance = modal line-haul travel costs + intra-terminal storage/holding costs + inter-carrier (interlining) costs + local network to terminal transfer costs + terminal to local network transfer costs

17 Simulating Flows Through A Seaport (Savannah) v v r gc 4 v v v YRk CSXT 3 v v v v v v v v v v r gc 2 YRk GC 4 v YVk v RFq GC 0 RFq NS 0 - vrq v YRk CSXT 1 r csxt 2 vsq vdq SFq v v DFq YRk NS 7 v r csxt 1 v dvq v r ns 1 17 r csxt 1 YVk v s s v v FR SAPT 0 v v v s Miles v s s s v v v s v s s s v v s v d s s s v d v YSk s v d Miles terminal-to-truck transfer lin within-port terminal ship-to-truck storage Ship to port terminal transfer lin

18 Multimodal/Intermodal Transportation Routing & Freight Cost Modeling 18 Freight Routing Supply Chain (FRSC) Model In Progress DRAFT Truck Costing Model Automobile Manufacturing Supply Chain Facilities Data (Geo-Located) Trans-oceanic Ship Costing Model User Interface: Model Run (Parameters) Set-Up & Model Outputs Multimodal Network Data (Geo-Located) Rail Costing Model Miles GIS Visualization O-to-D Multimodal /Intermodal Path Finding Routine 100

19 Candidate extended freight costing mode (Draft) 19 Flow Chart of Truck Freight Costing Components

20 Prototype User Interface for FRSC Model 20

21 Microeconometric Analysis Business and economic effects Clear natural experiment Core v. non-core counties Controls: State-wide, as well as State largest Metro area E.g., GA and Atlanta, MSA controls Then examine effects of location 21 Once supply-chain and shipping data are complete Effects on transportation Congestion issues Potential necessary investments to facilitate smooth functioning of supply chain and sustain economic development

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