PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION

Transcription

1 noun 1. a purposeful or industrious undertaking (especially one that requires effort or boldness) 2. earnest and conscientious activity intended to do or accomplish something. PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION 1 Analyzing the Impact on Texas Presentation to Bay Area Houston Economic Partnership April 18th, 2013

2 WHO IS E-NDEAVOR A Maritime Consultant Developing custom Market Demand, Pricing, Risk and Environmental Models. As a trusted consultant to the The Autoridad del Canal de Panama We have developed the following models: Route Cost Competitive Analysis Model Demand Integrated Model Market Share Analysis Transload Analysis Model Transshipment Analysis Model * Top-off Analysis Model* Shipper Math Model CO2 Emissions by Route Model * under development 2

3 EXPANSION PROGRAM COMPONENTS Atlantic Ocean Post-Panamax Locks - Atlantic Side 17.9 M m 3 Increasing Gatun Lake s Maximum Operational Level Deepening and Widening of Gatun Lake s and Gaillard Cut s Navigational Channels 26.7 m 27.1 m Post-Panamax Locks Pacific Side Deepening and Widening of the Atlantic Entrance 8.7 M m 3 17,700 Annual Transits (up from 14,200) Additional 2,670M gal H2O / day Access Channel for Post-Panamax Locks - Pacific Side 49 M m 3 Pacific Ocean Deepening and Widening of the Pacific Entrance

4 CONTAINER FLEET CAPACITY AND VESSEL SIZE COMPOSITION 2000 (4.79 Million TEU) 2010 (13.78 Million TEU) 2014 (16.8 Million TEU) 15% P.Pmax 40.4% Total P.Pmax 3.2% 48.1% Total P.Pmax 12.5% 85% Pmax and Below 37.2% 59.6% Pmax and Below 35.6% 51.9% Pmax and Below 0-4,000+ teu 4,000-6,000+ teu 371 Panamax vessels 134 Post Panamax vessels 0-5,000 teu 5-10,000 teu 10,000+ teu 949 Panamax vessels 775 Post Panamax vessels 0-5,000 teu 5-10,000 teu 10,000+ teu 956 Panamax vessels 804 Post Panamax vessels Source: Clarkson s Research Studies

5 LIQUID BULK TANKERS New locks' maximum vessel size: 123,500 MT 5

6 LNG VESSELS New locks' maximum vessel size: 180,000 M 3 6

7 DRY BULK CARRIER New locks' maximum vessel size: 115,000 MT 7

8 CONTAINERSHIPS New locks' maximum vessel size: 14,000 TEU 55 m (180 ) 49 m (160 ) 15.2 m (50 ) 33.5 m (110 ) 18.3 m (60 ) 32.3 m (106 ) 12.4 m (39.5 ) 12.8 m (42 ) Existing locks' maximum vessel size: 4,400 TEU 8

9 GAME CHANGERS REQUIRE STRATEGIC PLANNING 9

10 GAME CHANGERS REQUIRE STRATEGIC PLANNING The expansion will extend the Canal s area of influence And the Influence of TEXAS if we are ready. 10

11 SHIPPERS AND LINERS RESPONSES Example: Assume a $1 shipping cost /pair MUST be shared by all the stakeholders in the transit loop The need to Tran-ship will slice the $1 many more times 11

12 SHIPPER MATH BASICS Example: Assume a $1 shipping cost /pair MUST be shared by all the stakeholders in the transit loop The need to Tran-ship will slice the $1 many more times 12

13 SHIPPER MATH TOTAL LANDED COST Total Landed Cost Competitiveness of Panacanal all-water Route from China to US 4000 TEU Containership 13

14 SHIPPER MATH TOTAL LANDED COST Total Landed Cost Competitiveness of Panacanal all-water Route from China to US 8000 TEU Containership 14

15 TRANS-SHIPMENT Transhipment is the Answer if US Ports aren t Ready Optimize the use of Larger Vessels Kingston and Freeport & others could be the Winners Flexibility and Volatility 15

16 TOPOFF Maximization of Cargo when Draft is the only restriction Bulk Trades (coal & iron ore) Topoff Facilities in the Pacific What Topoff Strategies make sense for Texas? How do Topoff Strategies elsewhere affect Texas? 16

17 CANAL READINESS VESSEL SIZE Liquid Bulk Tankers? Where in Texas can we handle the post panamax tankers (123,000 MT max) LNG? (180,000 M 3 max) Dry Bulk? (115,000 MT max) Containers? (14,000 TEU max) 17

18 UNDERSTANDING YOUR CUSTOMERS AND STAKEHOLDERS PERSPECTIVES WIIFM 18

19 DRIVERS OF CHANGE TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY Finance Funding Finance mechanisms Pricing and returns Public / private partnerships Governance Security Regulation / taxation Policy Transportation System Demography & Society Population growth Aging / retirement Urbanization Changing work patterns Economics Economic growth Global trade Economic integration Transportation costs Technology Information technologies Materials technology Engine technology Energy & Environment Energy availability Alternative fuels Climate change 19

20 QUESTIONS THAT BEG FOR ANSWERS Hinterland Connectivity Issues Capacity and Economic Impact Calculations Rail Infrastructure Capacity? Financial Port Rail & Terminal Operational Capacity? Forecasting Highway Readiness? Congestion Issues? Stakeholder Perspective? Community Perspective? Environmental Impact? 20

21 QUESTIONS THAT BEG FOR ANSWER Hinterland Connectivity Issues Capacity and Economic Impact Calculations Financial & Operational Forecasting Capacity to meet Demand Expectations? Regional Economic Impact? Statewide Economic Impact? 21

22 QUESTIONS THAT BEG FOR ANSWER Hinterland Connectivity Issues Tax Increases? Capacity and Economic Impact Calculations Bond Issues? Financial Forecasting Toll Roads? State and Fed Involvement? PPP? Project Costing and Priorities? International Funding? Project ROI Analysis? Funding Alternatives Analysis? 22

23 CONCLUDING QUESTIONS Local or Regional Approach? Cost benefit Analysis Time vs Money Political Implications Inclusion and Exclusion of Players BAHEP s Role? 23

24 THANK YOU BRAD WALKER