World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
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1 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report of Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chairing Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service Farm Service Agency Agricultural Marketing Service
2 Links to the latest WASDE related publications Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) WASDE: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Secretary's WASDE Briefing Slides Foreign Ag Service: World Agricultural Production Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin US Drought Monitor ( in cooperation with NOAA and NDMC)
3 World Wheat Production Country or Region 2017/2018 estimate 2018/2019 forecast May / Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Canada Australia European Union Turkey Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan China India Northwest Africa No change.
4
5 5
6 May, 2018 Pronounced dryness accompanied the May heat in parts of northeast Europe.
7 May, 2018 More notably, April & May were much warmer than normal, accelerating crop development.
8 Northeastern Europe s primary winter crop areas are showing signs of crop stress due in part to heat and dryness.
9 Total EU Wheat Production Change: -1.0 mmt EU Wheat Production, Area, and Yield Changes Data Source: USDA Total EU Wheat Area Change: EU Wheat Yield Percent Change: (%) 9
10 EU Rapeseed Production Change: -0.6 (million metric tons) EU Rapeseed Production, Area and Yield Changes Data Source: USDA EU Rapeseed Area Change: EU Rapeseed Yield Percent Change: (%) NONE
11 80% of Central 63% of Volga
12 Russia Ukraine Central Southern Volga N. Caucasus Despite showers over the past 1 to 3 weeks, acute moisture shortages persist. Winter Wheat
13 May, 2018 Russia Ukraine Central Southern Volga N. Caucasus Pronounced warmth especially during May accelerated wheat development following a cold start to the spring. Winter Wheat
14 Russia Ukraine Central Southern Volga N. Caucasus The latest VHI suggests wheat yields have slipped, though localized showers have aided prospects in the far south (N. Caucasus). Winter Wheat
15 5.0 Russia: Estimated Winter Wheat Yield by District Tons per hectare Russia Central Southern N Caucasus Volga Sources: Rosstat ( ); USDA forecasts (2018)
16
17 WMO-CPC Russia Urals Siberia 250% Volga Kazakhstan +200% Rain for spring wheat planting and emergence has been locally excessive, particularly in the Siberia District. Spring Wheat
18 16,000 14,000 12,000 Russia: Spring Wheat Sowing Progress As of June 9, wheat had been planted on mha compared to mha by the same date last year. 1,000 hectares 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Apr 21 Apr 28 May 5 May 12 May 19 May 26 June 2 June 9 June 16 June Source: Ministry of Agriculture
19 Area (MHa) and Production (MMT) Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production The production forecast is decreased from 72.0 mmt in May to 68.5 mmt in June based on a reduction in the forecast yield for winter wheat and a decrease in the estimated area for spring wheat Yield (T/Ha) Harvested area Production Yield Source: USDA PSD Online
20
21 63% of wheat area indexed as Good to Excellent. (vs. 67% last year) Major Wheat Area
22 India Wheat Production Production (MMT) e Source: PS&D Online
23 World Wheat Supply and Use Item 2017/2018 estimate 2018/2019 forecast May / Million Tons Beginning stocks Production Total Supply 1, , Feed use Total use Trade Ending Stocks
24 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand Item 2017/ /2019 Estimate May 10 Forecast May /2018 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks 1, , Production 1, , Imports Total supply 3, , Food use Seed Feed and residual Domestic use 1, , Exports Total use 1, , Ending stocks 1, Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price / No change.
25 World Rice Production Country or Region 2017/2018 estimate 2018/2019 forecast May / Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina ** Brazil Egypt Bangladesh Burma Cambodia China India Indonesia Japan ** Sri Lanka Pakistan Philippines ** Thailand Vietnam No change.
26 Item World Rice Supply and Use 2017/2018 estimate 2018/2019 forecast May / Million Tons Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Total use Trade Ending Stocks
27 U.S. Rice Supply and Demand Item 2017/ /2019 Estimate May 10 Forecast May /2018 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) 7, , Million cwt Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per cwt Average market price 12.30/ / No change.
28 Country or Region World Corn Production 2017/ /2019 Estimate May 10 Forecast May / Million Tons World 1, , United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Mexico Canada European Union Serbia FSU ** Ukraine Russia South Africa China India No change. ** Rounds to zero.
29 Brazil Corn (Second Crop) Acre Amazonas Roraima Rondonia Amapa Maranhao a Para Piaui d Mato Grosso f Tocantins Bahia b c e a Ceara b Rio Grande do Norte c Paraiba d Pernambuco e Alagoas f Sergipe h Espirito Santo i Rio de Janeiro Aw: Tropical wet and dry Goias Cr: Subtropical Rain Mato Grosso do Sul Santa Catarina Parana Sao Paulo Minas Gerais i h Corn Production *Average ( ) Minor Production Intensity *Source: IBGE Major Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil NOV DEC Plant Period of Highest Intensity JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT * Later planting (Apr Jul) in northeast Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Harvest Rio Grande do Sul Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers 1) Mato Grosso 2) Parana 3) Mato Grosso do Sul 4) Goias
30 Brazil: Normal Daily Rainfall (mm) 9 Early June 8 7 Mato Grosso 6 5 Parana Jul-01 Jul-23 Aug-14 Sep-05 Sep-27 Oct-19 Nov-10 Dec-02 Dec-24 Jan-15 Feb-06 Feb-28 Mar-22 Apr-13 May-05 May-27 Jun-18 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Parana MT
31 Percent of Normal Rainfall (%) May 2018 Temperature Departure from Normal (C) May 2018 Roraima Roraima Amapa Amapa Amazonas Para Maranhao Amazonas Para Maranhao Piaui Piaui Acre Acre Mato Grosso Tocantins Mato Grosso Tocantins (%) Rondonia Bahia ( C) Rondonia Bahia Goias Minas Gerais Goias Minas Gerais Mato Grosso do Sul Sao Paulo Mato Grosso do Sul Sao Paulo Parana Parana Rio Grande do Sul Santa Catarina Rio Grande do Sul Santa Catarina Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil Plant Period of Highest Intensity Harvest NOV Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT * Later planting (Apr Jul) in northeast
32 May 10 Average 2011 Rain earlier in period Rain later Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board
33 Brazil Corn 2017/18 Estimates Reduced Thousand Hectares or Tons 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Area down 1% from May estimate to 16.9 mha Yield down 1% to 5.03 t/ha Production down 2% to 85.0 mmt MT/HA / / / / / / / / / /2018 Source: USDA FAS PSD Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mt/ha) 2018/2019f 0.00 Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division
34
35 1,200 Russia Corn: Estimated Planted Area by District 3,500 1,000 3,000 District area (1,000 hectares) ,500 2,000 1,500 1, Russia area (1,000 hectares) Russia Central Southern North Caucasus Volga Source: Ministry of Agriculture
36 Area (MHa) and Production (MMT) Russia Corn: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production The production forecast for corn is decreased from 19.0 to 15.0 mmt based on a 0.7-mha reduction in the estimated harvested area Harvested area Production Yield Yield (T/Ha) Source: USDA PSD Online
37 World Corn Supply and Use Item 2017/ /2019 Estimate May 10 Forecast May / Million Tons Beginning stocks Production 1, , Total Supply 1, , Feed use ** Total use 1, , Trade Ending Stocks ** Rounds to zero.
38 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Item 2017/ /2019 Estimate May 10 Forecast May /2018 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks 2, , Production 14, , Imports Total supply 16, , Feed and residual 5, , Food, seed, and industrial 7, , Ethanol 5, , Domestic use 12, , Exports 2, , Total use 14, , Ending stocks 2, , Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price 3.25/ / No change.
39 World Soybean Production 2017/ /2019 Country or Region Estimate May 10 Forecast May / Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Paraguay Canada India China No change.
40 Brazil 2017/18 Soybean Yield Percent Prior Year Roraima Amapa a Ceara b Rio Grande do Norte c Paraiba d Pernambuco e Alagoas f Sergipe h Espirito Santo i Rio de Janeiro Acre Amazonas Mato Grosso Para Maranhao Piaui a d f b e c Rondonia Tocantins Bahia Goias * State-Level Production (as % of total) Mato Grosso Parana Rio Grande do Sul Goias Mato Grosso do Sul Minas Gerais Bahia Sao Paulo Maranhao Santa Catarina Tocantins Other ~3 Santa Catarina Mato Grosso do Sul Rio Grande do Sul Parana Sao Paulo Soybean Production *Average ( ) Minor Minas Gerais i h Production Intensity *Source: IBGE Major * 2009 to 2013 Average Source: IBGE Brazil
41 Thousand Hectares or Metric Tons 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, /18 Estimate AREA 35.1 mha YIELD 3.39 mt/ha (RECORD) PROD mmt (RECORD) 57,800 69,000 75,300 BRAZIL Soybeans 66,500 82,000 86,700 97,200 96, , , , MT/HA / / / / / / / / / / /19F Area Production Yield Source: USDA/FAS/PSD Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division
42 World Soybean Supply and Use Item 2017/2018 estimate 2018/2019 forecast May / Million Tons Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Feed use Total use ** 15.3 Trade Ending Stocks Addendum Beginning stocks Argentina plus Brazil Imports* China *From all sources. ** Rounds to zero.
43 U.S. Soybeans Supply and Demand Item 2017/ /2019 Estimate May 10 Forecast May /2018 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 4, , Imports Total supply 4, , Crush 2, , Seed and Residual Domestic use 2, , Exports 2, , Total use 4, , Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price / No change.
44 Country or Region World Cotton Production 2017/2018 estimate 2018/2019 forecast May / Million bales World United States Foreign Argentina ** Brazil Turkey Australia China India Pakistan Uzbekistan African Franc Zone No change.
45
46 Cotton is Heavily Irrigated
47 Below-normal temperatures were reported across all major-producing areas in May.
48 Yields predicted at long-term trendline Rate of increase due to area increase in high productivity province of Xinjiang Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division
49 World Cotton Supply and Demand Item 2017/2018 estimate 2018/2019 forecast May / Million bales Beginning stocks ** 1.3 Production Total Supply Consumption Trade ** 0.9 Ending Stocks Addendum China ending stocks ** Rounds to zero.
50 Thousands Weekly Exports--Index ( ), 2016, & /1 3/1 4/5 5/1 Week 44 one of largest shipment weeks ever 5/31 RB cotton exports all kinds Index projroy averoy proj+/-2sd /3 8/17 8/31 9/14 9/28 10/12 10/26 11/9 11/23 12/7 12/21 1/4 1/18 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 3/29 4/12 4/26 5/10 5/24 6/7 6/21 7/5 7/19
51 U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand Item 2017/ /2019 Estimate May 10 Forecast May /2018 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) Million bales Beginning stocks Production ** Imports Total supply ** Mill use ** 0.05 Exports Total use ** Unaccounted Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Cents per pound Average market price 67.00/ / No change. ** Rounds to zero.
52 U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand Item 2017/ /2019 Estimate May 10 Forecast May / Thousand short tons, raw value Beginning Stocks 1, , Production 9, , Beets 5, , Cane 4, , Imports 3, , TRQ 1, , Re-export Mexico 1, , High-tier Total Supply 14, , Exports Domestic deliveries 12, , Total use 12, , Ending stocks 1, , Percent Stocks/use ratio No change.
53 Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand Item 2017/ /2019 Estimate May 10 Forecast May / Thousand metric tons Beginning Stocks 1, , Production 5, , Imports Total Supply 7, , Domestic Use 4, , Exports 1, , Total use 5, , Ending stocks 1, , No change.
54 U.S. Meat Production and Prices Item Estimate May 10 Forecast May Production Billion Pounds Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total Meat Prices Dollars per cwt Steers Hogs Cents per pound Broilers Turkey No change.
55 U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds Item Estimate May 10 Forecast May Exports Beef 3, , Pork 5, , Broilers 6, , Turkey Mature chickens Total Meat 16, , Imports Beef 3, , No change.
56 U.S. Milk Supply and Demand Item Estimate May 10 Forecast May Billion pounds Production Fat Basis Imports Commercial use Exports Skim-solid Basis Imports Commercial use Exports
57 Item U.S. Dairy Product Prices Estimate May 10 Forecast May Product prices Dollars per pound Cheese 1.62 ** Butter ** Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Class prices Class III Class IV All milk ** Rounds to zero.
58 Item U.S. Production Summary 2017/ /2019 Estimate May 10 Forecast May /2018 Crops and Products Wheat (million bushels) 1, , Rice (million cwt) Corn (million bushels) 14, , Sorghum (million bushels) Barley (million bushels) Oats (million bushels) Soybeans (million bushels) 4, , Soybean oil (million pounds) 23, , Soybean meal (thousand s.t.) 47, , Cotton (million bales) ** Sugar (thousand s.t., raw value) 9, , Milk (billion pounds) Meat (billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total Meat No change. ** Rounds to zero.
59 U.S. Domestic Consumption Summary Item 2017/ /2019 Estimate May 10 Forecast May /2018 Crops and Products Wheat (million bushels) 1, , Rice (million cwt) Corn (million bushels) 12, , Sorghum (million bushels) Barley (million bushels) Oats (million bushels) Soybeans (million bushels) 2, , Soybean oil (million pounds) 20, , Soybean meal (thousand s.t.) 35, , Cotton (million bales) ** 0.05 Sugar (thousand s.t., raw value) 12, , Milk (billion pounds, fat basis) Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork ** 0.75 Broilers Turkey Total Meat No change. ** Rounds to zero.
60 Item U.S. Export Summary 2017/ /2019 Estimate May 10 Forecast May /2018 Crops and Products Wheat (million bushels) Rice (million cwt) Corn (million bushels) 2, , Sorghum (million bushels) Soybeans (million bushels) 2, , Soybean oil (million pounds) 2, , Soybean meal (thousand s.t.) 13, , Cotton (million bales) Meat (Million lbs) Beef 3, , Pork 5, , Broilers 6, , Turkey Mature Chickens Total Meat 16, , No change.
61 Item Price Summary 2017/ /2019 Estimate May 10 Forecast May /2018 Crops and products Wheat ($/bu) Rice ($/cwt) Corn ($/bu) Soybeans ($/bu) Soybean oil ( /lb) Soybean meal ($/s.t.) Cotton ( /lb) Livestock Steers ($/cwt) Hogs ($/cwt) Broilers ( /lb) Turkeys ( /lb) Dairy products Cheese 1.62 ** Butter ** Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Milk classes Class III ($/cwt) Class IV ($/cwt) All milk ($/cwt) No change. ** Rounds to zero.
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