Greater Golden Horseshoe Transportation Plan

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1 Greater Golden Horseshoe Transportation Plan Transportation Profile Executive Summary October 2017 PREPARED BY Urban Strategies Inc. and HDR for the Ministry of Transportation TRANSPORTATION PROFILE - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i

2 Prepared by Urban Strategies Inc. and HDR for the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) in support of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) Transportation Plan. The Ontario Ministry of Transportation is developing a long-term and comprehensive transportation plan for the GGH. A functioning, efficient, and well-planned transportation system is vital to keep the population and economy of the GGH moving. To support the development of the GGH transportation plan, it is important to build an understanding of how the GGH transportation system has evolved in the past and how its needs might change in the future. This executive summary provides an overview of the transportation profile of the GGH which is a foundational input to the GGH transportation plan. > Cover Image: The Niagara Escarpment Source: Micheal Gil (Wikimedia) ii GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

3 Executive Summary This report provides a snapshot of the transportation system in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), for the movement of both people and goods. It includes an overview of the GGH s existing transportation infrastructure and services, including roads, rail, air, marine, transit, intercommunity bus, bicycle network, trails and border crossings. It also describes the Provincial transportation planning framework and key transportation players including ministries, agencies, municipalities, rail and bus companies, port authorities and airport operators. The growth of the GGH is strongly related to the evolution of its transportation system. Development has coalesced around the transportation features providing the greatest mobility, which over the course of the 19th and 20th centuries have evolved from waterways and ports, to rail terminals, to major highways. Today, the Greater Golden Horseshoe is strategically situated at the crossroads of Canadian and US trade, within a day s drive of approximately 135 million people, part of the Ontario-Quebec Trade Corridor, and connecting the only major road and rail routes between eastern and western Canada. Moving People While the Greater Golden Horseshoe has a diverse transportation system, the majority of trips made by people are by automobile (80%) using the region s road and highway network. Most of the remaining trips are made by transit (12% including GO Rail services), by active modes of transportation such as walking and cycling (6%) and by other modes such as taxi and school bus services (2%). Between 1996 and 2011 the region has experienced an increase in car ownership. While the proportion of households with two or more people has increased throughout the GGH, the greatest increase in car ownership has occurred in outer ring municipalities located outside of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). High rates of car-free households are really only found in downtown Toronto with its unique combination of multiple rapid transit lines and very high density. Transit mode share varies greatly across the region, and remains highest in the City of Toronto, Hamilton, and other municipalities in the GTHA. While almost all local transit agencies in the GGH have experienced an increase in passenger trips from the mid-1990s to 2015, transit mode share has declined slightly. Similar to transit, active mode share (i.e. the percentage of people walking and cycling) varies greatly across the region. This variation is dependent upon the characteristics of different places. Active mode share is highest in Urban Growth Centres, which tend to be the densest and most mixed-use areas in the region. The Urban Growth Centres with the highest rates of active transportation trips in 2011 were Downtown Toronto (41%), the Eglinton-Yonge Centre (38%), and the City of Peterborough (36%). Outside of Urban Growth Centres, TRANSPORTATION PROFILE - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

4 in areas where densities tend to be lower, uses more segregated and pedestrian and cycling infrastructure less developed, the share of active transportation drops significantly. Travel to and from the GGH involves air, rail, marine, and vehicular travel. Pearson International Airport is a growing national and international hub for passenger travel. It is the GGH s and Canada s dominant domestic, transborder and international travel hub. Air passenger movements have approximately quadrupled over the past 40 years. The region s smaller airports provide shorter haul domestic and international passenger service. In terms of vehicular travel, the Peace Bridge is the most significant of the GGH s four border crossings. In 2016, it carried nearly 4.1 million passenger vehicles and 1.2 million trucks. The four border crossings together observed approximately 9 million passenger vehicles to and from the US in % GO Rail 6% Active (Walk and Cycle) 2% Other Moving Goods The GGH and Ontario economies are dependent upon the multimodal freight transportation system for the movement of goods to, from and through the region. Trucks transfer the majority of goods moved in and out of the GGH in terms of both value and tonnage, but a significant portion of goods follows a multimodal journey that can also include air, rail and marine. Almost all goods are moved at least once via the road system on a truck. Truck traffic has increased upwards (in absolute volumes), outwards (from Toronto into the suburban regions) and spread out between the peaks across the day, so that many locations on the provincial expressway system are now operating at or near an all-day peak. While the absolute number of trucks increased from 1988 to 2010, the percentage of trucks on major provincial highways in the GGH as a proportion of all traffic flows has remained relatively constant over time. The largest percentage of truck commodity flows is destined to the US. Truck traffic at all border crossings observed a decrease around 2008/2009, likely due to the economic recession, but has since recovered and remains at stable levels. The vast majority of GGH truck trade is transported across the Niagara and Windsor/Sarnia border crossings. Figure 1. GGH transportation mode share for all trips on an average weekday, TTS, % Transit 80% Auto 2 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

5 Figure 2. Number of passenger vehicle crossings, , Public Border Operators Association Peace Bridge Annual Passenger Vehicle Crossings Rainbow Bridge Lewiston-Queenston Bridge Whirlpool Rapids Bridge Year 2016 While the road network carries the bulk of freight moved in Ontario and the GGH, rail carries almost 20% of goods by value traded between the US and Canada. For marine goods movement, the Great Lakes St Lawrence Seaway connects the GGH to ports around the world. Cargo shipments on the Great Lakes St. Lawrence Seaway System exceed 120 million tonnes of cargo each season, and generate $34.6 billion of economic activity and 227,000 jobs in Canada and the US. By far the most important port in terms of tonnage handled is the Port of Hamilton. It handles more than 10 million tons of cargo and 650 vessels per year. Intermodal (container) traffic is growing across North America. The term intermodal refers to the act of transferring the cargo between modes, or the location where that exchange takes place. A key component of this traffic is containers that are shipped to North American marine ports from international (i.e. overseas) sources. The GGH s intermodal terminals are major container gateways. The CN Brampton Intermodal Terminal is Canada s largest intermodal terminal and handles about 1,000,000 containers each year. Pearson International Airport remains the largest freight handler among the GGH s airports, moving over 31% of total Canadian shipments by tonnage. Hamilton International Airport has also increased its volume significantly over the last decade. Hamilton International Airport is a leader in express overnight service, an important advantage given the trend towards shopping and same/next day delivery. Hamilton International Airport has emerged as a major air cargo gateway for two reasons: it suffers from less landside congestion than Pearson, and it is able to operate 24 hours a day, whereas Pearson s proximity to residential areas means it has some overnight restrictions. Figure 3. Weekly truck freight exports and imports from/to GGH (billions of $,as reported in Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey) Billions of $ Rest of Ontario Rest of Canada USA Overall Billions of $ Rest of Ontario Rest of Canada USA Overall Weekly Truck Freight: Imports Weekly Truck Freight: Exports TRANSPORTATION PROFILE - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

6 Future Outlooks The review of existing conditions and trends and key influences in the region has led to the identification of 15 future outlooks that will be important considerations for the GGH Transportation Plan. The outlooks have been grouped under four themes and are: A Changing Economy 1. 1 The shift to e-commerce and express delivery service is placing increased strain on the region s goods movement system. Continuing to work collaboratively to address operational, land use, planning and investment needs and opportunities in goods movement is essential to supporting the region s prosperity Worldwide patterns of manufacturing and industry are changing but the basic pattern of goods destined to the GGH moving by water to a Canadian port, then by rail and truck to the GGH will continue much as today. Growth of high-tech manufacturing and goods destined for export may favour locations with round the clock and more reliable shipping capabilities. 3. Automation and high tech manufacturing could 3 lead to changes in the function of assembly and distribution centres whereby final assembly of products is conducted closer to the point of final delivery As rapid growth takes place around them, supporting the function of ports, airports, intermodal terminals and land border crossings as the gateways into and out of the GGH for both people and goods is becoming even more critical to the regional economy. A Growing Region 6. As the region has matured, more trips are being 6 made both within and between inner-ring municipalities, and the ability to service this changing demand through transit will need to be considered Transportation infrastructure is key to determining where growth takes place. Integrating transportation and land use to support population and employment growth in desired locations will be essential Optimizing the existing transportation system through tools like managed lanes (such as transitonly, High-Occupancy Vehicle or High-Occupancy Toll lanes) and complete street designs that safely accommodate multiple users including pedestrians, cyclists, transit vehicles and cars will help to serve the region s future needs and meet sustainability goals. Another opportunity to optimize the GGH s transportation system will be to separate passenger and freight rail operations, where possible, to improve both services and allow for more frequent transit options. Increasing Pressure on Sustainability and Health 9. Meeting Canada s obligations under the Paris 9 Agreement and the Ontario Government s target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 will require a shift to more sustainable modes of transportation Supporting more active forms of transportation will be an important strategy to promote greater levels of physical activity, reducing chronic illness resulting from inactivity, improving mobility for people of all ages and increasing opportunities for social interaction Toronto Pearson Airport has been experiencing exceptional growth and has become a vital economic asset. With regional air travel volume in Southern Ontario expected to grow to well beyond current capacity, there is a need for a comprehensive airport and ground transportation strategy to ensure complementary roles for the region s airports. 4 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN > Canada Post van - Express delivery services are on the rise. Source: Flickr - Smeet Panchal, 2013

7 > Car2Go Car Sharing Service, Toronto - The growth of on-demand mobility services has the potential to complement and challenge existing mobility options. Source: City of Toronto, Rapidly Advancing Technologies 11. The growth of on-demand mobility services such as ride-sourcing and car-sharing services has the potential to both complement and challenge traditional service-based mobility options - such as public transit and taxi services. Creating the right balance between traditional service-based transportation and on-demand services will become increasingly important. 12. Automated vehicles are anticipated to bring many benefits, such as improved safety, reduced greenhouse gas emissions and greater transportation equity, but there are also many challenges and uncertainties associated with the introduction of automated vehicles that must be considered. 13. Connected vehicles, which use wireless networks to communicate with other vehicles, personal mobile devices, and roadside infrastructure such as traffic signals, are part of a larger shift whereby the Information and Communications Technology systems used to support the transportation system will be as critical as the physical infrastructure. 14. Automated and connected vehicles may be deployed first in the movement of goods, where innovations such as multi-truck platoons will change goods delivery patterns. 15. The potential use of drones to make deliveries could reduce pressures on road infrastructure, however this is an emerging area with the regulatory environment and other operational factors still to be determined. 15 This profile, along with the Socio-economic and Environmental profiles, will inform several components of the GGH Transportation Plan going forward. > Uber Autonomous Mapping Vehicle, Toronto - There are many risks and uncertainties associated with automated vehicles. Source: Uber, > Hot and Fresh Pizza Delivery - Emerging delivery methods such as the use of drones will require a new regulatory environment. Source: Flickr - Zawwar Hussain, TRANSPORTATION PROFILE - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5

8 Figure 4. Key components of the GGH transportation system

9 TRANSPORTATION PROFILE - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7

10 TRANSPORTATION PROFILE - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8

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