TRANSPORTATION DEMAND FORECASTING INFORMATION SESSION

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1 GTA WEST CORRIDOR PLANNING AND EA STUDY-STAGE STAGE 1 TRANSPORTATION DEMAND FORECASTING INFORMATION SESSION JUNE 2008

2 Topics for this Session 1. The Challenge of Growth 2. Overview of GTAW Study 3. The Role of Plans & Policies 4. Approaches to Transportation, Economic & Tourism Forecasting 2

3 Topics for this Session 1. The Challenge of Growth 2. Overview of GTAW Study 3. The Role of Plans & Policies 4. Approaches to Transportation, Economic & Tourism Forecasting 3

4 Population Growth Source: Census Data BARRIE ORANGEVILLE VAUGHAN SARNIA WATERLOO KITCHENER CAMBRIDGE LONDON BRAMPTON GUELPH BRANTFORD WOODSTOCK TORONTO MILTON BURLINGTON ST. CATHARINES HAMILTON NIAGARA FALLS WINDSOR 1961 ONTARIO 6,236,000 4

5 Population Growth Source: Census Data ORANGEVILLE BARRIE VAUGHAN SARNIA WATERLOO KITCHENER CAMBRIDGE LONDON BRAMPTON GUELPH BRANTFORD WOODSTOCK TORONTO MILTON BURLINGTON ST. CATHARINES HAMILTON NIAGARA FALLS WINDSOR 1991 ONTARIO 10,085,000 5

6 Population Growth Source: Census Data ORANGEVILLE BARRIE VAUGHAN SARNIA WATERLOO KITCHENER CAMBRIDGE LONDON BRAMPTON GUELPH BRANTFORD WOODSTOCK TORONTO MILTON BURLINGTON ST. CATHARINES HAMILTON NIAGARA FALLS WINDSOR 2001 ONTARIO 11,141,000 6

7 Population Growth Source: Municipal Transportation Master Plans in GTA BARRIE ORANGEVILLE BRAMPTON VAUGHAN SARNIA WATERLOO KITCHENER CAMBRIDGE LONDON GUELPH BRANTFORD WOODSTOCK TORONTO MILTON BURLINGTON ST. CATHARINES HAMILTON NIAGARA FALLS WINDSOR 2031 ONTARIO 16,400,000 7

8 Employment Increase ( ) 340, , , ,000 59, , ,000 90,000 16,000 32,000 3,000 Source: Growth Plan, Schedule 3 8

9 Key Focus The existing transportation system does not have the capacity to support the planned population and economic growth in the GTA West corridor. 9

10 Growth Plan Schedule 6 Identifies that future transportation corridor improvements are needed in the GTA-W to handle projected demand This study is focused on providing for the efficient movement of people and goods within the preliminary study area 10

11 Topics for this Session 1. The Challenge of Growth 2. Overview of GTAW Study 3. The Role of Plans & Policies 4. Approaches to Transportation, Economic & Tourism Forecasting 11

12 Preliminary Study Area 12

13 GTA West Corridor Consolidated Land Use Plan 13

14 Areas of Influence 14

15 Study Process 15

16 Topics for this Session 1. The Challenge of Growth 2. Overview of GTAW Study 3. The Role of Plans & Policies 4. Approaches to Transportation, Economic & Tourism Forecasting 16

17 Study Goals and Objectives Being developed based on: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe Provincial Policy Statement Greenbelt Plan Niagara Escarpment Plan Metrolinx White Paper#1 Vision, Goals and Objectives Building a National Tourism Strategy - A Framework for Federal/Provincial/Territorial Collaboration Ontario Tourism Strategy Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan Municipal Official Plans 17

18 Provincial Policy Statement The PPS contains 3 main policy areas: 1.Building Strong Communities 2.Wise Use & Management of Resources 3.Protecting Public Health and Safety Building Strong Communities relates specifically to the economic and transportation issues that this study must address: Support intensification and compact development Promote economic development and competitiveness Ensure necessary infrastructure provided to support current and projected needs Urge coordination between growth and infrastructure planning Optimize use of existing infrastructure 18

19 Provincial Policy Context Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) expected to grow by 3.7 million people and 1.8 million jobs by 2031 Greenbelt Plan and Growth Plan were developed in tandem to ensure a coordinated provincial approach to: growth management environmental protection 19

20 Growth Plan for the GGH Defines growth targets and patterns Encourages growth within existing urban areas Urban Growth Centres are the focus for intensification Greenfields to have minimum density of 50 jobs or persons per hectare 20

21 Growth Plan Moving Goods (Schedule 6) GTA-West corridor is shown as a future transportation corridor to support planned growth 21

22 Topics for this Session 1. The Challenge of Growth 2. Overview of GTAW Study 3. The Role of Plans & Policies 4. Approaches to Transportation, Economic & Tourism Forecasting 22

23 Transportation Needs Assessment Process 23

24 Problem & Opportunities Framework Study Purpose Address Existing & Future Capacity Deficiencies 1 Existing and Planned Area Transportation System 2 Goals and Objectives for Area Transportation System 3 Factors Influencing Travel Demand Future Travel Demand Assign Trips within Transportation System to Each Mode Specific transportation Problems and Opportunities Prepare Problems and Opportunities Report 24

25 Problem and Opportunities Framework 1 Existing and Planned Area Transportation System Mode-by-mode overview of existing / planned infrastructure and Services: Highway Network Municipal Network Transit Network Rail Network Airports Marine 25

26 Problem and Opportunities Framework 2 Goals and Objectives for Area Transportation System Incorporate policies from Growth Plan, Greenbelt Plan, NEC Plan, PPS, municipal official plans: Land Use Environmental Economic Define specific goals and objectives for study corridor: People Movement Goods Movement 26

27 Problem and Opportunities Framework 3 Factors Influencing Travel Demand Future growth in travel demand depends on: Population and employment growth Economic growth (including international trade) Tourism growth 27

28 Problem and Opportunities Framework 4 Future Travel Demand Forecast number of trips for people and goods Forecast O-D trip pattern for people and goods Freight / goods movement Tourism travel A.M. / P.M. weekday peak Weekend travel Different Planning Horizons 28

29 Problem and Opportunities Framework 5 Assign Trips within Transportation System to Each Mode Assign person trips and goods movement trips to each mode Document assumptions and rationale for modal assignments 29

30 Problem and Opportunities Framework 6 Specific Transportation Problems and Opportunities Assess the transportation system performance by mode to identify: Area transportation system deficiencies Area transportation system opportunities 30

31 Problem and Opportunities Framework 7 Prepare Problems and Opportunities Report Document all technical & process work in: Area Transportation System Problems and Opportunities Report FOR CONSULTATION 31

32 Problem and Opportunities Framework This information session focuses on Steps 3,4 and 5: 3 Factors Influencing Travel Demand 4 Future Travel Demand 5 Assign Trips within Transportation System to Each Mode 32

33 Why Are Transportation Models Important? Transportation models allow us to: Predict future transportation conditions Test alternatives quickly and easily Inform decision makers on: Type; Location; Size; and, Timing of transportation improvements. 33

34 What is a Trip? A trip is: A movement from an origin to a destination, By some mode and route, During a certain time of day, For a certain purpose All trips have: Trip production end (origin) Trip attraction end (destination) Vast array of trip purposes: Home Work School Shopping Personal Business Entertainment Social Recreational Serve Passenger 34

35 Transportation Forecasting Approach Two forecasting approaches are being used: GGH Model Strategic Demand Forecasting Population and employment Freight trips (rail, marine, air) based person trips (auto and transit) Tourist trips (auto, rail, marine, air) Freight trips (trucks) Forecasting will be done for all modes of transportation Transit Road Rail Marine Air Future forecasts will be developed up to

36 GGH Model To be used for other current and future planning studies: GTA West Metrolinx Niagara - GTA Other MTO studies 36

37 Four Stage Model Land Use (pop. & emp.) 1 Trip Generation 2 Trip Distribution 3 Modal Split 4 Trip Assignment Traffic Volumes & Transit Ridership 37

38 Trip Generation Land Use (pop. & emp.) 1 Trip Generation 2 Trip Distribution 3 Modal Split 4 Trip Assignment Traffic Volumes & Transit Ridership 38

39 Trip Generation Divide study area into zones Estimate # of trips entering and leaving each zone 39

40 Trip Distribution Land Use (pop. & emp.) 1 Trip Generation 2 Trip Distribution 3 Modal Split 4 Trip Assignment Traffic Volumes & Transit Ridership 40

41 Trip Distribution Each zone produces (trip production) and attracts (trip attraction) trips: Trip produced in Zone I Zone I Trip attracted to Zone I Trip attracted to Zone J Zone J Trip produced in Zone J 41

42 Trip Distribution Trip productions in one zone are matched with trip attractions in all other zones: Origin/Destination pairs Trips between one zone and another will be higher if: There is a high level of economic activity between zones. There is a high level of transportation service between zones. The zones are relatively close to one another. 42

43 Modal Split Land Use (pop. & emp.) 1 2 Trip Generation Trip Distribution 3 Modal Split 4 Trip Assignment Traffic Volumes & Transit Ridership 43

44 Modal Split Allocate person trips based on mode: Approved policy: e.g. 30% transit trips in suburban zones, 70% transit trips in downtown areas Numerical probability model: Cost/ease of travel between modes Likelihood of choosing one mode over another Sensitivity analysis (The GTAW Approach): Range of modal split scenarios Assess future transportation conditions for each scenario 44

45 Trip Assignment Land Use (pop. & emp.) 1 2 Trip Generation Trip Distribution 3 Modal Split 4 Trip Assignment Traffic Volumes & Transit Ridership 45

46 Trip Assignment Assign trips by mode to future transportation network: Capacity Constrained: Trips assigned to initial facilities until capacity reached THEN Trips re-assigned to secondary facilities GGH Model uses this approach All or Nothing: All trips are assigned to the shortest facility Does not consider capacity restrictions Service-based assignment (Transit Trips) : Trips assigned to transit network that includes specific services Peak load locations are used to identify required service level/frequency 46

47 Strategic Demand Forecasting Approach Will be used to complement the GGH Model Tourism (auto, rail, marine, air) & freight trips (rail, marine, air) are not addressed by GGH Model Uses a 4 stage method similar to the GGH Model Relies on several different data sources and forecasting approaches 47

48 Data Sources Similar to GGH Model, data sources include: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe Consultation with relevant agencies, organizations, municipalities Transportation Tomorrow Survey MTO s Commercial Vehicle Survey Municipal goods movement studies (Peel, Others) Other relevant studies (Metrolinx, Hwy 427 EA, Hwy 6 / Hanlon Expressway Improvements Study, Others) Economic and tourism analysis Statistics Canada Traffic counts 48

49 Auto and Transit Travel Characteristics Will use Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS): A comprehensive travel survey conducted every 5 years Preliminary 2006 data was released in December 2007 Telephone surveys collect information on how members of a household use the transportation system Survey area includes the GTAW preliminary study area Provides observed information on population based: Trip generation Trip distribution Mode of travel Trip purpose Time of day 49

50 Freight Forecasting - Inputs Consultation with relevant organizations: Business and commercial stakeholders Transportation service providers Municipalities Available data sources: MTO s Commercial Vehicle Survey 2001 origin/destination survey Provides trip table for inter-regional truck flows Municipal goods movement studies (Peel, others) Municipal origin/destination surveys Traffic counts 50

51 Freight Forecasting - Inputs Other relevant studies: Metrolinx Hwy 427 EA Hwy 6 / Hanlon Expressway Improvements Study Demographic information: Statistics Canada Population and employment projections (Growth Plan) Economic analysis: Import/export trends Growth/decline in employment sectors Fluctuations in currency, fuel prices, etc. Other market forces 51

52 Freight Forecasting - Trucks Three stage model: Truck trip generation Truck trip distribution Truck trip assignment Trip generation and distribution based on: MTO Commercial Vehicle Survey Municipal goods movement studies MTO Traffic Counts: Used to validate results Trips assigned to future transportation network: GGH model 52

53 Freight Forecasting Rail, Marine, Air Relies heavily on input from: Transportation service providers: CNR, CPR, VIA, Port of Hamilton, etc. Business and commercial stakeholders: Ford, Home Depot, Canadian Retail Shippers, etc. Forecasts are based on: Existing utilization Historical trends Future aspirations/trends 53

54 Tourism Trends Will be used to predict future weekend travel volumes In 2004: 9 million overall visitation to the preliminary study area Key Transportation Issues: Increased gas prices Economic slowdown of the U.S. economy Declining value of U.S. dollar Congestion: Highway system Rail (conflicts with freight movement) 54

55 Economic Analysis A comprehensive economic assessment of Preliminary Study Area is being undertaken Utilizes computer analysis software to assess: The effect of transportation improvements on the regional economies The barriers to growth by industry Allows us to understand: The economic potential of a region The role of transportation in achieving this potential 55

56 Topics for this Session 1. The Challenge of Growth 2. Overview of GTAW Study 3. The Role of Plans & Policies 4. Approaches to Transportation, Economic & Tourism Forecasting Now to pull it all together. 56

57 Topics for this Session 1. The Challenge of Growth The existing transportation system does not have the capacity to support the planned population and economic growth in the GTA West corridor 2. Overview of GTAW Study 3. The Role of Plans & Policies 4. Approaches to Transportation, Economic & Tourism Forecasting 57

58 Topics for this Session 1. The Challenge of Growth 2. Overview of GTAW Study This study focusses on providing for the efficient movement of people and goods within the preliminary study area based on current Provincial Plans and Policies 3. The Role of Plans & Policies 4. Approaches to Transportation, Economic & Tourism Forecasting 58

59 Topics for this Session 1. The Challenge of Growth 2. Overview of GTAW Study 3. The Role of Plans & Policies Current plans and policies guide the study in supporting planned growth while protecting the environment 4. Approaches to Transportation, Economic & Tourism Forecasting 59

60 Topics for this Session 1. The Challenge of Growth 2. Overview of GTAW Study 3. The Role of Plans & Policies 4. Approaches to Transportation, Economic & Tourism Forecasting Comprehensive modelling/strategic demand forecasting will assist in identifying the means to support planned growth 60

61 Next Steps Milestones Release of Draft Overview of Transportation Land Use & Economic Conditions Report Anticipated Date July 2008 Release of Draft Environmental Conditions and Constraints Report July 2008 Release of Draft Area Transportation System Problems & Opportunities Report October 2008 Public Information Centre (Round #2) November

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