Cass Freight Index Report. April 2012

Transcription

1 Cass Freight Index Report April 2012

2 Cass Freight Index Report April 2012 More of the same: Slow but continued growth in freight volumes. April 2012 Year overyear change Month tomonth change Shipments % 1.9% Expenditures % 3.4% The freight market continued to grow in April at the slow pace we have experienced for most of the recovery, with North American freight volumes rising 1.9 percent from March to April. Spending on freight transportation grew at a faster rate and was up 3.4 percent. With the slow growth in the economy overall, these results are not surprising. April Shipment Volumes Shipment volume has been rising steadily since January of this year, although not at a very robust pace. April s 1.9 percent increase is lower than the increases in March and February 2.1 and 2.5 percent respectively. While still positive, the rate of growth declined in both March and April. April s sequential growth is a scant 0.2 percent higher than April a year ago. Truck tonnage has been trending upward in the American Trucking Associations Truck Tonnage Index, but length of haul has been declining; therefore on a ton mile basis (a ton mile represents a ton of freight moved one mile and is a comparable measure across modes), truck freight has actually been flat or even contracting slightly. The boom in shale oil and gas drilling, or fracking, caused a significant portion of the rise in truck tonnage. Thousands of trucks of sand, pipe and water are being moved by truck to the wells throughout the shale plays in the United States. Ton mile volume for railroads was down 4.8 percent in April compared to 2011, and has lagged in year overyear comparisons since the end of February (coal is a major factor in the declines). Intermodal volume, on

3 the other hand, is up 5.9 percent year over year. Container shipments through the nation s ports remain slow, but growing. Ocean carriers have started putting sidelined containerships back in service on the strength of forecasts for a strong summer shipping season. Inventories at the wholesale and manufacturing levels are high, but lower in retail as the trend has been to push inventory back up the chain. Retail inventories are well aligned with sales, with an inventory to sales ratio at 1.27 percent. Manufacturing inventories also rose steeply in the last two months as manufacturing growth slowed slightly. April Freight Expenditures Overall freight spending in April was 5.1 percent higher than a year ago. The 3.4 percent sequential rise in April shows continued strength in rates as capacity closely matches demand, especially in the trucking sector. Fuel prices have fallen for the last three weeks, so fuel surcharges were not as big a cost factor in April. Much of the strength in rates comes from contract rates that were negotiated early last year anticipating a faster economic growth rate and capacity issues, which were expected to cause a spike in rates. So far we have not been able to sustain a strong growth spurt, so rates have increased only modestly. Comparing the increase in freight costs to the growth in freight shipments shows that payments are again rising faster than volume. Since operating costs for truck carriers have been steady, this translates to a better bottom line. This tenuous balance in the trucking sector between demand and supply will be easily undone if freight volumes pick up. The 20 percent loss of capacity and the productivity losses due to new regulations will be felt quickly. Many in the sector have turned to an asset light model, and capacity will not be able to be added quickly. Indeed few carriers have indicated that they intend to expand their fleets. New truck purchases will primarily be for fleet replacement. Shipment Volumes Freight Expenditures The economy is showing signs of sustainable, but low, growth in There have been many positive signs in recent weeks, but each has a cautionary note. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent, but the number of new jobs created during the period was well below last month s figures. Some of the drop in unemployment is due to discouraged workers dropping out of the workforce; it is expected that they will return when the economy provides better prospects for employment. The Institute for Supply Management s manufacturing index rose 1.8 percent in April. Digging into the details of the report shows growth of 2.7 percent in production, a return to positive growth of 3.7 percent in new orders, but a continued contraction of 3 percent in order backlog. Exports have been strong all year, but import growth is flat. Consumer confidence improved again in April, concurrent with a rise in consumer spending. A positive

4 note about consumer spending is the increase in purchases of non necessity goods. There has, however, been a jump in consumer debt as more consumers are willing to use credit if they feel more confident about the economy. Cass also releases truckload and intermodal linehaul cost indexes each month. Visit to view or subscribe.

5 About The Cass Freight Index The Cass Freight Index represents monthly levels of shipment activity, in terms of volume of shipments and expenditures for freight shipments. Cass Information Systems processes more than $20 billion in annual freight payables on behalf of its clients. The Cass Freight Index is based upon the shipments of hundreds of Cass clients representing a broad spectrum of industries. The index uses January 1990 as its base month. Visit or call to get detailed information about the Cass Freight Index, including historical data. About Rosalyn Wilson and Delcan Corporation Analysis provided by Rosalyn Wilson, a nationally and internationally recognized supply chain expert, and senior business analyst with Delcan Corporation based in Vienna, Virginia. She has more than 30 years of experience in the transportation and logistics field and is the author of the Annual State of Logistics Report, a widely used analysis of the supply chain industry published by the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals a report which was created in 1988 by the late Robert V. Delaney, a former Cass executive. She is also the co author of Securing Global Transportation Networks, a supply chain security reference and college textbook. Delcan Corporation is a management consulting firm recognized by those in government and industry as a world leader in the transportation sector. Delcan advises top decision makers in the transportation sector on strategy, technology, program and project management, asset management, and finance and economics. The material contained herein is intended as general industry commentary. The Cass Freight Index and other content ( Index ) is based upon information that we consider reliable, but Cass does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness, reliability, continued availability or completeness of any information or underlying assumptions, and Cass shall have no liability for any errors, omissions or interruptions. Any data on past performance contained in the index is no guarantee as to future performance. The Index is not intended to predict actual results, and no assurances are given with respect thereto. Cass makes no warranty, express or implied. Opinions expressed herein as to the Index are those of Rosalyn Wilson and may differ from those of Cass Information Systems Inc. All opinions and estimates are given as of the date hereof and are subject to change Cass Information Systems, Inc.