Risk Evaluation of Meridian Substation Transformers
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- Deirdre Horn
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1 BCTC-SPA-R008 August 8, 2005 Risk Evaluation of Meridian Substation Transformers Wenyuan Li System Planning and Performance Assessment BCTC August,
2 Reliability Evaluation of Meridian Substation Transformers (Executive Summary) Wenyuan Li System Planning and Performance Assessment BCTC August 8, 2005 BCTC-SPA-R008 Meridian substation has two 500/230 kv transformers T1 and T3. The purpose of this study is to quantify the risk due to possible failures of the MDN transformers. Intuitively, the risk includes the following aspects: When one transformer fails, another transformer may be overloaded. Even if the limited overload on a transformer is allowed for a relatively short time in operation, this will result in reduction of transformer life. If two transformers fail simultaneously, the metro area will be in a blackout. Although the probability is very low, the consequence will be extremely severe. The BUT generating units can only supply 450 MW at its maximum capacity and it takes time for these units to start up. When a transformer is out-of-service for maintenance, the risk becomes high during the maintenance period. The substation configuration does not meet the N-1-1 criterion. The quantified risk evaluation indicates: (1) The failure frequencies for double forced outage events and for single forced outage events during another transformer in maintenance are both low. (2) The EENS (Expected Energy Not Supplied) due to double forced outage events is 423 MWh/year and that due to single outage during another transformer in maintenance is 267 MWh/year. The total EENS is 690 MWh/year. (3) The total risk cost due to transformer failures is about $1.4 million/year, with $41.4 k/year for possible BCH revenue losses and $1.38 million/year for possible social damage. It should be noted that the risk cost is an expected average over long time but not a cost that will happen every year. 2
3 1. Introduction Reliability Evaluation of Meridian Substation Transformers Wenyuan Li System Planning and Performance Assessment BCTC August 8, 2005 BCTC-SPA-R008 Meridian substation has two 500/230 kv transformers T1 and T3. Each one contains three single-phase transformers. The capacity of each transformer is 1200 MVA. T1 was in service in 1976 and T3 in There is a single-phase spare transformer that is sitting at MDN substation. When one single-phase transformer has a severe failure, this spare could be used but it would take up to 14 days to remove the faulty transformer and replace it. Historical outage statistics shows that a repairable minor failure could be fixed within one day. In the present operation practice, the BUT generating station does not run any unit in the normal state. All power demand in the local area is supplied through the two transformers, leading to a high loading level. In an emergency situation, the BUT generating units of total 450 MW can be brought to operation but it would take about 12 hours to start up. Intuitively, the risk includes the following aspects: When one transformer fails, another transformer may be overloaded. Even if the limited overload on a transformer is allowed for a relatively short time in operation, this will result in reduction of transformer life. If two transformers fail simultaneously, the metro area will be in a blackout. Although the probability is very low, the consequence will be extremely severe. The BUT generating units can only supply 450 MW at its maximum capacity with a time delay. When a transformer is out-of-service for maintenance, the risk becomes high during the maintenance period. The substation configuration does not meet the N-1-1 criterion. The purpose of this study is to quantify the risk due to possible failures of the MDN transformers. 2. Investigations into actual flows on the transformers The actual hourly current and voltage data for the last fiscal year (April to March 31, 2005) are retrieved from the PI system. The MVA values are calculated. It is found that the total MVA flow on the two transformers exceeded 1200 MVA (one transformer s capacity) for 586 hours. The maximum loading flow is 1441 MVA. The MVA flow data of the 586 hours are given in Attachment Study Conditions in the Risk Evaluation The study is based on the following conditions: 3
4 (1) The transformer is assumed to allow overloading up to 1441 MVA. In other words, one transformer can carry all the power demand when another transformer fails or is out-of-service for maintenance. The risk analysis is only associated with double forced outages and N-1-1 states (when one is in maintenance, another one fails). (2) The load curve is based on actual load profile in last fiscal year (April 1, 2004 to March 2005). (3) Both repairable and aging failure modes are considered. A repairable failure is considered as a minor failure and can be repaired within one day, whereas an aging failure is thought as a severe failure and the failed single-phase transformer has to be replaced in 14 days. (4) Repairable failure data is based on last 20 year's records on MDN T1 and T3. (5) The aging failure mode is based on the Weibull model with the assumption of 45 year's mean life and 13 year's standard deviation. (6) It is assumed that the maintenance activity for T1 or T3 takes 4 days and will occur in May. (7) Double forced outages can happen in any time during the year. In calculating EENS, the load profile in January is used, which may be a relatively pessimistic assumption. (8) When both the transformers are out-of-service, it takes 12 hours for the BUT generating units to pick up loads. After the first 12 hours, the difference between the BUT maximum capacity (450 MW) and the total load demand has to be curtailed until at least one transformer is brought back in operation due to completion of repair, or replacement, or maintenance. 4. Data The hourly load curve data for January, 2005 and May 20 to June 2, 2004 are given in Attachments 2 and 3 respectively. The repairable failure data of MDN T1 and T3 are shown in Table 1. The unavailability data due to aging failure of MDN T1 and T3 were calculated using the SPARE program and are shown in Table 2. The output of running SPARE is given in Attachment 4. With the unavailability due to aging failure and the replacement time, an equivalent failure frequency due to aging failure can be calculated. The calculations of risk indices were performed on spreadsheets, which are given in Attachment 5. Table 1 Repairable failure data of T1 and T Failure data T1 T Failure frequency (f/y) Repair time (hrs/f) Unavailability
5 Table 2 Unavailability due to aging failure of T1 and T Outage data T1 T Unavailability Replacement time (days) Results The risk analysis is performed for the following two cases: (1) Both transformers are forced to outage simultaneously. (2) The second transformer fails when the first one is in maintenance. The risk indices for the two cases are shown in Tables 3 and 4. The unit interruption cost for possible BCH revenue losses is assumed to be $60/MWh and the unit interruption cost for social damage is assumed to be $2000/MWh. The total risk cost is shown in Table 5. Table 3 Risk indices for double forced outage events Outage events Failure freq. (failures/yr) Recovery time (hrs) EENS (MWh/yr) T1 and T3 repairable failures T1 repairable, T3 aging failures T1 aging, T3 repairable failures T1 and T3 aging failures total Table 4 Risk indices for events of one forced outage and one maintenance outage Outage events Failure freq. (failures during maintenance) Recovery time (hrs) EENS (MWh/yr) T1 maintenance, T3 repairable failure T1 maintenance, T3 aging failure T3 maintenance, T1 repairable failure T3 maintenance, T1 aging failure total
6 Table 5 Risk cost (interruption costs) BCH revenue loss ($/yr) Social damage ($/yr) Total ($/yr) Case Double forced outage events 25, , ,811 One forced outage and one maintenance outage 16, , ,793 Total 41,405 1,380,199 1,421, Summary The following observations can be made: (1) The failure frequencies for double forced outage events and for single forced outage events during another transformer in maintenance are both low. (2) The EENS (Expected Energy Not Supplied) due to double forced outage events is 423 MWh/year and that due to single outage during another transformer in maintenance is 267 MWh/year. The total EENS is 690 MWh/year. (3) The total risk cost due to transformer failures is about $1.4 million/year, with $41.4 k/year for possible BCH revenue losses and $1.38 million/year for possible social damage. It should be noted that the risk cost is an expected average over long time but not a cost that will happen every year. 6
7 Attachment 1 MVA flow data of the 586 hours exceeding 1200MVA from April 04 to March Nov-04 18:00: Oct-04 13:00: Oct-04 20:00: Nov-04 17:00: Oct-04 11:00: Dec-04 19:00: Nov-04 19:00: Jan-05 08:00: Dec-04 19:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 11:00: Oct-04 13:00: Oct-04 18:00: Oct-04 19:00: Oct-04 18:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 12:00: Nov-04 13:00: Nov-04 18:00: Dec-04 18:00: Jan-05 14:00: Oct-04 19:00: Jan-05 09:00: Nov-04 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Dec-04 18:00: Dec-04 11:00: Nov-04 17:00: Jan-05 20:00: Oct-04 13:00: Jan-05 18:00: Oct-04 10:00: Jan-05 13:00: Oct-04 17:00: Dec-04 18:00: Dec-04 17:00: Nov-04 20:00: Oct-04 16:00: Dec-04 18:00: Jan-05 10:00: Dec-04 17:00: Dec-04 17:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 08:00: Dec-04 17:00: Nov-04 18:00: Oct-04 12:00: Jan-05 12:00: Feb-05 18:00: Nov-04 19:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 21:00: Dec-04 17:00: Jan-05 17:00: Nov-04 19:00: Jan-05 18:00: Nov-04 17:00: Feb-05 18:00: Oct-04 15:00: Nov-04 19:00: Oct-04 19:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 08:00: Nov-04 16:00: Dec-04 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Dec-04 18:00: Nov-04 18:00: Dec-04 10:00: Nov-04 18:00: Nov-04 21:00: Dec-04 18:00: Dec-04 18:00: Feb-05 19:00: Dec-04 18:00: Jan-05 10:00: Feb-05 19:00: Feb-05 18:00: Feb-05 19:00: Nov-04 20:00: Jan-05 18:00: Dec-04 18:00: Jan-05 13:00: Dec-04 19:00: Jan-05 08:00: Dec-04 17:00: Dec-04 17:00: Dec-04 18:00: Dec-04 17:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 13:00: Dec-04 19:00: Oct-04 12:00: Oct-04 20:00: Dec-04 19:00: Oct-04 19:00: Jan-05 09:00: Oct-04 12:00: Jan-05 08:00: Nov-04 17:00: Oct-04 19:00: Nov-04 17:00: Dec-04 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Dec-04 18:00: Feb-05 18:00: Jan-05 17:00: Nov-04 12:00: Dec-04 18:00: Jan-05 15:00: Oct-04 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Dec-04 18:00: Nov-04 14:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 10:00: Nov-04 11:00: Oct-04 09:00: Dec-04 17:00: Nov-04 11:00: Dec-04 18:00: Dec-04 18:00: Oct-04 20:00: Jan-05 09:00: Dec-04 19:00: Nov-04 12:00: Nov-04 12:00: Oct-04 14:00: Dec-04 19:00: Jan-05 11:00: Dec-04 19:00: Oct-04 14:00: Oct-04 08:00: Feb-05 19:00: Dec-04 19:00:
8 28-Oct-04 18:00: Nov-04 10:00: Jun-04 13:00: Dec-04 19:00: Dec-04 17:00: Jul-04 22:00: Nov-04 18:00: Feb-05 20:00: Jan-05 14:00: Dec-04 18:00: Jan-05 11:00: Dec-04 17:00: Dec-04 17:00: Feb-05 19:00: Jan-05 18:00: Nov-04 18:00: Feb-05 19:00: Oct-04 21:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 11:00: Oct-04 11:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 17:00: Oct-04 15:00: Jan-05 13:00: Nov-04 18:00: Oct-04 18:00: Jan-05 14:00: Nov-04 18:00: Nov-04 17:00: Dec-04 20:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 17:00: Nov-04 17:00: Jan-05 10:00: Oct-04 21:00: Feb-05 19:00: Dec-04 09:00: Dec-04 20:00: Feb-05 18:00: Dec-04 18:00: Mar-05 18:00: Nov-04 18:00: Jan-05 09:00: Dec-04 17:00: Nov-04 17:00: Dec-04 19:00: Oct-04 10:00: Dec-04 19:00: Oct-04 19:00: Nov-04 14:00: Dec-04 19:00: Jan-05 12:00: Oct-04 20:00: Nov-04 11:00: Dec-04 17:00: Dec-04 18:00: Mar-05 19:00: Dec-04 17:00: Dec-04 20:00: Jan-05 18:00: Dec-04 19:00: Jan-05 15:00: Dec-04 17:00: Jan-05 16:00: Dec-04 17:00: Feb-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Nov-04 17:00: Jan-05 10:00: Nov-04 15:00: Dec-04 18:00: Jan-05 18:00: Dec-04 20:00: Aug-04 12:00: Feb-05 20:00: Jan-05 14:00: Nov-04 11:00: Nov-04 11:00: Dec-04 18:00: Nov-04 15:00: Aug-04 14:00: Nov-04 19:00: Feb-05 20:00: Nov-04 10:00: Oct-04 18:00: Feb-05 18:00: Nov-04 13:00: Nov-04 18:00: Nov-04 17:00: Nov-04 19:00: Nov-04 18:00: Dec-04 21:00: Nov-04 21:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Dec-04 19:00: Dec-04 19:00: Oct-04 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Nov-04 20:00: Jan-05 08:00: Feb-05 18:00: Nov-04 16:00: Nov-04 13:00: Nov-04 17:00: Jan-05 17:00: Nov-04 14:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 20:00: Dec-04 20:00: Jan-05 10:00: Mar-05 19:00: Nov-04 08:00: Oct-04 18:00: May-04 17:00: Feb-05 12:00: May-04 18:00: Dec-04 17:00: Feb-05 13:00: Nov-04 17:00: Dec-04 20:00: Feb-05 20:00: Feb-05 20:00: Jan-05 10:00: Nov-04 11:00: Dec-04 20:00: Nov-04 18:00: Dec-04 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Dec-04 20:00: Jan-05 19:00: Feb-05 19:00: Jan-05 16:00: Feb-05 18:00: Dec-04 20:00: Feb-05 19:00: Nov-04 20:00:
9 30-Dec-04 20:00: Feb-05 09:00: Dec-04 21:00: Dec-04 19:00: Dec-04 19:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 18:00: Dec-04 16:00: Oct-04 17:00: Sep-04 19:00: Jul-04 10:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jul-04 13:00: Feb-05 18:00: Dec-04 20:00: Oct-04 19:00: Nov-04 18:00: Dec-04 18:00: Aug-04 12:00: Dec-04 17:00: Nov-04 10:00: Nov-04 13:00: Jan-05 20:00: Feb-05 20:00: Jan-05 16:00: Oct-04 16:00: Feb-05 16:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 22:00: Nov-04 10:00: Nov-04 17:00: Nov-04 09:00: Feb-05 18:00: Jan-05 18:00: Nov-04 19:00: Dec-04 21:00: Sep-04 18:00: Mar-05 19:00: Dec-04 18:00: Dec-04 13:00: Feb-05 15:00: Feb-05 19:00: Oct-04 19:00: Dec-04 10:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 11:00: Nov-04 12:00: Nov-04 19:00: Dec-04 21:00: Nov-04 10:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 14:00: Oct-04 14:00: Nov-04 08:00: Dec-04 21:00: Feb-05 14:00: Jan-05 19:00: Aug-04 15:00: Oct-04 08:00: Mar-05 18:00: Jul-04 11:00: Nov-04 18:00: May-04 11:00: Oct-04 22:00: Nov-04 18:00: Dec-04 17:00: Nov-04 11:00: Feb-05 19:00: Jan-05 09:00: Dec-04 14:00: Aug-04 21:00: Nov-04 15:00: Aug-04 22:00: Dec-04 19:00: Feb-05 09:00: Nov-04 19:00: Dec-04 11:00: Nov-04 16:00: Oct-04 14:00: Dec-04 12:00: Dec-04 22:00: Aug-04 11:00: Feb-05 17:00: Oct-04 21:00: Nov-04 13:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 21:00: Dec-04 13:00: Feb-05 18:00: Jan-05 09:00: Feb-05 19:00: Oct-04 20:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 10:00: Aug-04 13:00: Jan-05 17:00: Feb-05 19:00: Dec-04 16:00: Jul-04 11:00: Jul-04 13:00: Nov-04 22:00: Nov-04 12:00: Nov-04 19:00: Jan-05 11:00: Dec-04 09:00: Jan-05 19:00: Mar-05 19:00: Mar-05 12:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 12:00: Nov-04 12:00: Dec-04 18:00: Jan-05 13:00: Dec-04 17:00: Dec-04 18:00: Nov-04 19:00: Dec-04 15:00: Jul-04 16:00: Feb-05 19:00: Dec-04 16:00: Jul-04 12:00: Oct-04 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Oct-04 15:00: Oct-04 08:00: Dec-04 17:00: Nov-04 11:00: Jun-04 14:00: Jan-05 08:00: Dec-04 21:00: Nov-04 12:00: Jul-04 12:00: Nov-04 13:00: Dec-04 11:00: Feb-05 20:00: Nov-04 17:00: Dec-04 12:00: Feb-05 20:00: Nov-04 19:00:
10 07-Feb-05 17:00: Nov-04 11:00: Mar-05 20:00: Dec-04 08:00: Nov-04 08:00: Mar-05 20:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 18:00: Oct-04 18:00: Dec-04 19:00: Dec-04 09:00: Oct-04 22:00: Mar-05 17:00: Jan-05 13:00: Nov-04 09:00: Nov-04 09:00: Oct-04 20:00: Jan-05 19:00: Oct-04 21:00: Dec-04 16:00: Dec-04 18:00: Dec-04 10:00: May-04 12:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 18:00: Aug-04 11:00: Nov-04 17:00: Jul-04 17:00: Jul-04 12:00: Jan-05 22:00: Nov-04 13:00: Oct-04 11:00: Feb-05 10:00: May-04 16:00: Dec-04 20:00: Dec-04 20:00: Nov-04 16:00: Feb-05 08:00: Nov-04 10:00: Nov-04 12:00: Mar-05 11:00: Jan-05 19:00: Dec-04 20:00: Dec-04 17:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 19:00: Dec-04 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Oct-04 19:00: Feb-05 19:00: Dec-04 12:00: Feb-05 21:00: Dec-04 21:00: Aug-04 17:00: Mar-05 19:00: Nov-04 19:00: Dec-04 16:00: Dec-04 17:00: Dec-04 21:00: Nov-04 20:00: Feb-05 21:00: Nov-04 22:00: Dec-04 14:00: Feb-05 18:00: Feb-05 09:00: Oct-04 10:00: Nov-04 21:00: May-04 13:00: Jan-05 17:00: Dec-04 21:00: Feb-05 18:00: Dec-04 11:00: Feb-05 11:00: Feb-05 17:00: Oct-04 12:00: Jul-04 14:00: Nov-04 19:00: Aug-04 17:00: Nov-04 20:00: Oct-04 13:00: Nov-04 14:00: Dec-04 19:00: Dec-04 21:00: Jul-04 17:00: Mar-05 20:00: Dec-04 17:00: Feb-05 09:00: Oct-04 12:00: Jan-05 18:00: Oct-04 11:00: Nov-04 13:00: Jul-04 15:00: Oct-04 17:00: Jan-05 21:00: Nov-04 18:00: Dec-04 20:00: Jul-04 14:00: Aug-04 18:00: Dec-04 20:00: Oct-04 13:00: Feb-05 10:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 15:00: Mar-05 19:00: Oct-04 14:00: Mar-05 13:00: Feb-05 08:00: Sep-04 20:00: Dec-04 20:00: Feb-05 08:00: Aug-04 11:00: Nov-04 16:00: Dec-04 12:00: Feb-05 18:00: Jan-05 07:00: Oct-04 11:00: Dec-04 13:00: Feb-05 18:00: Nov-04 20:00: Jul-04 09:00: Jul-04 11:00: Nov-04 20:00: Mar-05 17:00: Jan-05 07:00: Feb-05 11:00: Jan-05 21:00: Feb-05 20:00: Oct-04 12:00: Dec-04 16:00: Feb-05 09:00: Nov-04 09:00: Feb-05 08:00: Mar-05 18:00: Jul-04 15:00: Oct-04 12:00: Oct-04 19:00: Jul-04 16:00: Feb-05 11:00: Feb-05 19:00: Jan-05 14:00: Nov-04 18:00:
11 17-Aug-04 21:00: Dec-04 08:00: Oct-04 20:00: May-04 14:00: Feb-05 20:00: Feb-05 10:00: Feb-05 18:00: Mar-05 19:00: Aug-04 13:00: Oct-04 21:00: Dec-04 19:00: Dec-04 15:00: Dec-04 21:00: Oct-04 08:00: Oct-04 20:00: Nov-04 17:00: Oct-04 12:00: Jul-04 18:00: Nov-04 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 12:00: Feb-05 20:00:
12 Attachment 2 Hourly MW load curve data in January 05 Date/time BUT units out BUT units in 04-Jan-05 00:00: Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00: Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00: Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 23:00: Jan-05 00:00: Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00: Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00: Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00:
13 05-Jan-05 23:00: Jan-05 00:00: Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00: Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00: Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 23:00: Jan-05 00:00: Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00: Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00: Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 23:00: Jan-05 00:00:
14 08-Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00: Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00: Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 23:00: Jan-05 00:00: Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00: Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00: Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 23:00: Jan-05 00:00: Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00:
15 10-Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00: Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 23:00: Jan-05 00:00: Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00: Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00: Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 23:00: Jan-05 00:00: Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00: Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00:
16 12-Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 23:00: Jan-05 00:00: Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00: Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00: Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 23:00: Jan-05 00:00: Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00: Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00: Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00:
17 14-Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 23:00: Jan-05 00:00: Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00: Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00: Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 23:00: Jan-05 00:00: Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00: Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00: Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00:
18 16-Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 23:00: Jan-05 00:00: Jan-05 01:00: Jan-05 02:00: Jan-05 03:00: Jan-05 04:00: Jan-05 05:00: Jan-05 06:00: Jan-05 07:00: Jan-05 08:00: Jan-05 09:00: Jan-05 10:00: Jan-05 11:00: Jan-05 12:00: Jan-05 13:00: Jan-05 14:00: Jan-05 15:00: Jan-05 16:00: Jan-05 17:00: Jan-05 18:00: Jan-05 19:00: Jan-05 20:00: Jan-05 21:00: Jan-05 22:00: Jan-05 23:00:
19 Attachment 3 Hourly MW load curve data from May 20 to June 2 04 Date/time BUT units out BUT units in 20-May-04 00:00: May-04 01:00: May-04 02:00: May-04 03:00: May-04 04:00: May-04 05:00: May-04 06:00: May-04 07:00: May-04 08:00: May-04 09:00: May-04 10:00: May-04 11:00: May-04 12:00: May-04 13:00: May-04 14:00: May-04 15:00: May-04 16:00: May-04 17:00: May-04 18:00: May-04 19:00: May-04 20:00: May-04 21:00: May-04 22:00: May-04 23:00: May-04 00:00: May-04 01:00: May-04 02:00: May-04 03:00: May-04 04:00: May-04 05:00: May-04 06:00: May-04 07:00: May-04 08:00: May-04 09:00: May-04 10:00: May-04 11:00: May-04 12:00: May-04 13:00: May-04 14:00: May-04 15:00: May-04 16:00: May-04 17:00: May-04 18:00: May-04 19:00: May-04 20:00: May-04 21:00: May-04 22:00:
20 21-May-04 23:00: May-04 00:00: May-04 01:00: May-04 02:00: May-04 03:00: May-04 04:00: May-04 05:00: May-04 06:00: May-04 07:00: May-04 08:00: May-04 09:00: May-04 10:00: May-04 11:00: May-04 12:00: May-04 13:00: May-04 14:00: May-04 15:00: May-04 16:00: May-04 17:00: May-04 18:00: May-04 19:00: May-04 20:00: May-04 21:00: May-04 22:00: May-04 23:00: May-04 00:00: May-04 01:00: May-04 02:00: May-04 03:00: May-04 04:00: May-04 05:00: May-04 06:00: May-04 07:00: May-04 08:00: May-04 09:00: May-04 10:00: May-04 11:00: May-04 12:00: May-04 13:00: May-04 14:00: May-04 15:00: May-04 16:00: May-04 17:00: May-04 18:00: May-04 19:00: May-04 20:00: May-04 21:00: May-04 22:00: May-04 23:00: May-04 00:00:
21 24-May-04 01:00: May-04 02:00: May-04 03:00: May-04 04:00: May-04 05:00: May-04 06:00: May-04 07:00: May-04 08:00: May-04 09:00: May-04 10:00: May-04 11:00: May-04 12:00: May-04 13:00: May-04 14:00: May-04 15:00: May-04 16:00: May-04 17:00: May-04 18:00: May-04 19:00: May-04 20:00: May-04 21:00: May-04 22:00: May-04 23:00: May-04 00:00: May-04 01:00: May-04 02:00: May-04 03:00: May-04 04:00: May-04 05:00: May-04 06:00: May-04 07:00: May-04 08:00: May-04 09:00: May-04 10:00: May-04 11:00: May-04 12:00: May-04 13:00: May-04 14:00: May-04 15:00: May-04 16:00: May-04 17:00: May-04 18:00: May-04 19:00: May-04 20:00: May-04 21:00: May-04 22:00: May-04 23:00: May-04 00:00: May-04 01:00: May-04 02:00:
22 26-May-04 03:00: May-04 04:00: May-04 05:00: May-04 06:00: May-04 07:00: May-04 08:00: May-04 09:00: May-04 10:00: May-04 11:00: May-04 12:00: May-04 13:00: May-04 14:00: May-04 15:00: May-04 16:00: May-04 17:00: May-04 18:00: May-04 19:00: May-04 20:00: May-04 21:00: May-04 22:00: May-04 23:00: May-04 00:00: May-04 01:00: May-04 02:00: May-04 03:00: May-04 04:00: May-04 05:00: May-04 06:00: May-04 07:00: May-04 08:00: May-04 09:00: May-04 10:00: May-04 11:00: May-04 12:00: May-04 13:00: May-04 14:00: May-04 15:00: May-04 16:00: May-04 17:00: May-04 18:00: May-04 19:00: May-04 20:00: May-04 21:00: May-04 22:00: May-04 23:00: May-04 00:00: May-04 01:00: May-04 02:00: May-04 03:00: May-04 04:00:
23 28-May-04 05:00: May-04 06:00: May-04 07:00: May-04 08:00: May-04 09:00: May-04 10:00: May-04 11:00: May-04 12:00: May-04 13:00: May-04 14:00: May-04 15:00: May-04 16:00: May-04 17:00: May-04 18:00: May-04 19:00: May-04 20:00: May-04 21:00: May-04 22:00: May-04 23:00: May-04 00:00: May-04 01:00: May-04 02:00: May-04 03:00: May-04 04:00: May-04 05:00: May-04 06:00: May-04 07:00: May-04 08:00: May-04 09:00: May-04 10:00: May-04 11:00: May-04 12:00: May-04 13:00: May-04 14:00: May-04 15:00: May-04 16:00: May-04 17:00: May-04 18:00: May-04 19:00: May-04 20:00: May-04 21:00: May-04 22:00: May-04 23:00: May-04 00:00: May-04 01:00: May-04 02:00: May-04 03:00: May-04 04:00: May-04 05:00: May-04 06:00:
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