TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

Transcription

1 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Data and Tools for Linking Goods Movement, Air Quality, and Transportation Infrastructure Decisions June 2-3, 2009 Overview of the Model Improvement Plan for the SCAG Heavy-Duty Truck Model Jonathan Nadler Manager, Transportation Modeling, Air Quality & Conformity Southern California Association of Governments

2 Presentation Overview SCAG Comprehensive Goods Movement Project Background SCAG HDT Model Existing and proposed enhancements SCAG Model Enhancements - Looking Forward 2

3 SCAG Comprehensive Goods Movement Project Multi-year, $3.9 Million Project Policy Analysis for 2012 RTP and Other Planning Studies Enhanced HDT Model Primary Analysis Tool for Goods Movement Policy Decisions Build Upon Foundations of Previous Planning Efforts Resolve compatibility and connectivity issues Detail project definitions/phasing Refine costs, develop implementation and financing plans 3

4 Project Tasks Task 1: Administration and Management Task 2: Refined Public Outreach Strategy Task 3: Evaluate and Recommend Improvements to the SCAG HDT Model Task 4: Truck Trip Data Collection and Analysis Task 5: Needs Assessment of Industrial/Warehouse and Intermodal Facilities Task 6: HDT Model Enhancement and Model Validation Task 7: Evaluation of the Goods Movement Element of the 2008 RTP Task 8: New Technology Alternatives for Line-Haul Freight Task 9: Recommendations for Enhancing Regional Goods Movement System Task 10: Environmental Mitigation Plan Task 11: Financing and Implementation Plan Task 12: Final Report 4

5 Background SCAG Region 2008 Regional Transportation Plan Multi-County Goods Movement Action Plan Air Quality Planning 5

6 SCAG Region

7 SCAG Region San Bernardino Ventura Los Angeles Orange Riverside 38,000 sq. miles 6 counties 189 cities 18+ million people, 24 million by 2035 Imperial 7

8 8

9 SCAG 2008 Regional Transportation Plan

10 2008 RTP: A Multi-Billion, Multi-Modal Plan $531.5 billion (nominal dollars) 10

11 Million TEUs Source: POLA, POLB Explosive Growth in Goods Movement 11

12 2008 RTP: Moving Freight Faster and Cleaner Additional Rail Track Capacity Locomotive Engine Upgrades Grade Separation Projects 12

13 2008 RTP: Moving Freight Faster and Cleaner Dedicated Lanes for Clean Technology Trucks Constrained RTP I-710 Strategic RTP East-West Corridor and I-15 13

14 Multi-County Goods Movement Action Plan

15 Multi-County Goods Movement Action Plan Master Plan for Goods Movement in Southern California Guidance for State, regional, and local transportation plans Inform local land use decision-making Core Mandates Environmental - avoid, reduce, mitigate environmental, community, and health impacts Mobility - promote the safe and efficient movement of all modes of transportation modes and reduce congestion Economy - ensure the economic well-being of the region and State Funding secure the Region s fair share of public and private funds for investment in the freight transportation system Strategy: Simultaneous Mitigation, Capacity, Investment 15

16 Multi-County Goods Movement Action Plan MCGMAP Partners Caltrans Districts 7, 8, 11, & 12 Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority Orange County Transportation Authority Riverside County Transportation Commission Ventura County Transportation Commission San Bernardino Association of Governments San Diego Association of Governments Southern California Association of Governments 16

17 Air Quality Planning

18 South Central Coast Air Basin Ventura Los Angeles South Coast Air Basin Mojave Desert Air Basin San Bernardino Riverside Orange 4 Air Basins Salton Sea Air Basin Imperial 18

19 Ventura County APCD South Central Coast Air Basin Antelope Valley AQMD South Coast Air Basin South Coast AQMD Mojave Desert AQMD Mojave Desert Air Basin 5 Air Districts Salton Sea Air Basin Imperial County APCD 19

20 Ventura County Portion of SCCAB Ventura Los Angeles South Coast Air Basin Western Portion of Mojave Desert Air Basin San Bernardino Orange Coachella Valley Portion of SSAB Riverside Federal Ozone Non-Attainment Areas Imperial Valley Portion of SSAB Imperial 20

21 Searles Valley Portion of MDAB Los Angeles San Bernardino County Portion of Mojave Desert Air Basin Ventura South Coast Air Basin San Bernardino Orange Coachella Valley Portion of SSAB Riverside Federal PM10 Non-Attainment Areas Imperial Valley Portion of Salton Sea Imperial Air Basin 21

22 Los Angeles Ventura South Coast Air Basin San Bernardino Orange Riverside Federal PM2.5 Non-Attainment Areas Imperial Valley Portion of SSAB Imperial 22

23 Los Angeles Ventura South Coast Air Basin San Bernardino Orange Riverside Federal CO Maintenance Area Imperial 23

24 Los Angeles Ventura South Coast Air Basin San Bernardino Orange Riverside Federal NO2 Maintenance Area Imperial 24

25 Air Quality Planning SCAG Input to South Coast AQMP Socio-economic data for emissions inventories Transportation model output data: emissions inventories and photochemical modeling (SCAQMD) on-road emission factors (ARB) Transportation strategy portion of AQMP, including TCMs 25

26 Air Quality Planning SCAG Input to Other Local AQMPs Transportation model output and socio-economic data and other relevant data as needed SCAQMD performs air quality modeling for the region ARB uses SCAG transportation model outputs and SCAQMD modeling to support local air districts AQMP development 26

27 Air Quality Challenges 52% of all Americans exposed to PM2.5 above federal standard live in the SCAG region 43% of total reductions to achieve So. Coast ozone standard from long-term ( black box ) control measures 27

28 Transportation Conformity Regional Emissions Analyses All on-road emissions in each non-attainment area for all milestone years Model validation and data requirements Hot Spot Analyses Interagency consultation for projects with PM impacts Main concern is diesel emissions from HDT 28

29 SCAG Heavy Duty Truck Model

30 HDT Model Enhancement Project Policy Planning HDT Model Improvement Plan Schedule 30

31 Policy Planning Port Access Improvements Rail Investments Clean Technology Truck Lanes Alternative Technology Goods Movement Systems Freight Facility Development and Land Use Strategies Economic Impact Analysis Operational Strategies (Port and Highway) Air Quality/Conformity Analyses 31

32 Policy Planning (cont.) Better understanding of international versus domestic freight activities Account for local distribution and service truck activity accurately at regional scale Better understanding of secondary and tertiary port trips and ability to link to warehousing analysis Consider land use policy when looking at warehousing projections and resulting truck traffic Understand market needs when analyzing alternative goods movement technology systems Understand which industries benefit from improvements 32

33 HDT Model Enhancement Plan Existing HDT Model Proposed HDT Model Enhancements Data Collection 33

34 Existing HDT Model - Key Features Three Truck Classes correspond to weight classes used in EMFAC External Model commodity flows converted to truck trips and disaggregated to transp. analysis zones (TAZs) Internal Model trip rates by land use and gravity model Special Generator Models ports and air cargo Multi-step, iterative process similar to SCAG s Regional Transportation Demand Model for passenger vehicles 34

35 Existing HDT Model - Overview Inputs Models Outputs Land Use Data SED Data Trip Rates Trip Distance Internal HDT Model Trip Generation: 8 Land Uses P and A Models: Warehouse HHDT Trip Distribution: 3 GVW Gravity Model: Warehouse HHDT Internal HDT Trip Tables LHDT Trip Table MHDT Trip Table HHDT Trip Table AM HDT Trip Tables LHDT Trip Table MHDT Trip Table HHDT Trip Table Commodity Flow Data Land Use Data SED Data Payload Factors Quick Trip Generation Outputs Trip Interchange Allocations Port to to SCAG Zone Equivalency External HDT Model Commodity Flow Allocator to TAZ Commodity Flow Tons to Trips Convertor External HDT Trip Tables LHDT Trip Table MHDT Trip Table HHDT Trip Table Port HDT Trip Tables HHDT Port Trip Table Time-of-Day Factors Daily HDT Trip Tables LHDT Trip Table MHDT Trip Table HHDT Trip Table MD HDT Trip Tables LHDT Trip Table MHDT Trip Table HHDT Trip Table PM HDT Trip Tables LHDT Trip Table MHDT Trip Table HHDT Trip Table Assignment Model PCE Factors NT HDT Trip Tables LHDT Trip Table MHDT Trip Table HHDT Trip Table 35

36 Process for Assessing Modeling Enhancements (prepared by consultant to inform proposed model enhancement plan) Port Access Improvements Truck Lanes Rail Investments Alternative Technologies Air Quality Economic Impact Freight Facilities Operational Strategies Truck volumes and speeds on existing goods movement and port access corridors Relationship between travel times and costs International cargo volumes/port truck/all truck trips by corridor (including secondary trips) Commodity/industry usage (tonnage/value/trips) by corridor Time-of-day truck traffic response Truck trip generation and distribution Route choice response to pricing Truck volumes on new roadway alignments Logistics system response to changes in highway system performance and land use Truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by truck class, county, and air basin Vehicle delay at grade crossings Low Medium Medium - High or High - Medium High 36 Left semi-circle represents risk, and the right semi-circle represents cost

37 Proposed Model Enhancements (still under discussion; subject to change) External Trip Gen./Dist. Model Update Exogenous Commodity Flow (CF) Data With TRANSEARCH CF Data Update CF Conversion to Daily Trip Tables Update Module Update Data Internal Trip Generation Update Rates Port Trip Generation Update Quick Trip Obtain Quick Trip for SCAG Internal Trip Distribution Add LU Interchange Feature Est. New Gravity Models Port Secondary Trip Gen./Dist. Add Secondary Trips Based on Supply Chain Flows PCE Conversion Implement Variable PCE Factors in TransCAD Apply New Lookup Values Multiclass Assignment Separate Port Trips Speed Post-Processor Update Time-of-Day Fctrs. Intermodal Trip Gen./Dist. Update Rail Trip Tables Port and Modal Elasticity Model Inputs 37

38 Data Collection Needs Internal Model Data Trip generation Trip distribution Traffic assignment Special Generator Model Data Transload and port-related secondary truck trips Intermodal terminal truck trips External Model Data Commodity flow data Other model data inputs (travel cost/value of time and toll network data) 38

39 Types of Data Establishment Surveys Existing GPS Data from Vendors GPS Data from Device Deployment Supply Chain Surveys Traffic Counts 39

40 Project Schedule PHASE I PHASE II Tasks Phase I D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A Task 1: Administration / Management Task 2: Public Outreach Task 3: Eval & Recommend Improvements HDT Task 4: Truck Trip Data Collection, Surveys Task 5: Warehouse / Industrial Needs Task 6: HDT Model Enhancement and Validation Phase II Task 7: RTP Goods Movement Evaluation Task 8: Alternative Technologies Task 9: Recommendations for Regional System Task 10: Environmental Mitigation Plan Task 11: Financing/ Implementation Plan Task 12: Final Report 40

41 SCAG Model Enhancements - Looking Forward Enhancements to Existing Transportation Demand Model Mode choice, highway/transit networks, pricing sensitivities, TransCAD, etc. New Tools Development Activity-based model Land use model Scenario planning tools (for local land use scenario planning) 41 RTP Modeling Guidelines Update SB375

42 Contacts Guoxiong Huang (Modeling) Annie Nam Jonathan Nadler 42