Pricing a Recovery: What will Drive the Next Stage of the Asset Price Cycle?
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1 Pricing a Recovery: What will Drive the Next Stage of the Asset Price Cycle? Dr Adam Kent - Maritime Strategies International (MSI) 15th Annual Marine Money Week Asia Singapore September 20 th to 21 st 2016
2 Pricing a Recovery: What will Drive the Next Stage of the Asset Price Cycle? 1. Demand 2. Supply 3. Earnings 4. Newbuilding Prices 5. Secondhand Prices 6. Recovery? and will it be a Mountain or Mole Hill Agenda Maritime Strategies International 2
3 Year Old Price versus Historical* Prices have dropped during 2016 across the board *Based on MSI s quarterly published averages 1990 to 2015 Maritime Strategies International 3
4 The Complete Pricing Jigsaw Maritime Strategies International 4
5 Pricing a Recovery Demand Maritime Strategies International
6 Seaborne Cargo Growth Positive outlook for seaborne cargo growth for all sectors (apart from offshore in the short term) Maritime Strategies International
7 How Many Ships? Routes Distance Speed Waiting/Port Time Operating Days Ballast Ratio Carrying Capacity Size Changes Maritime Strategies International 7
8 Crude Oil Product Chemicals LPG LNG Bulker Container PCTC Cruise AHTS 350 # of Vessels Incremental Vessel Requirements (until 2019) Ships Required More ships needed Maritime Strategies International 8
9 Pricing a Recovery Supply Maritime Strategies International
10 Supply has been the Party Pooper Supply Supply Supply Supply Maritime Strategies International 10
11 Crude Oil Product Chemicals LPG LNG Bulker Container PCTC Cruise AHTS Orderbook - Over Exposure 600 # of Vessels Ships Required Ships on order underemployed current fleet Maritime Strategies International 11
12 HIGH SCRAPPING Supply Side Medicine LOW CONTRACTING Maritime Strategies International 12
13 Oil Tanker Bulker Chemical LPG LNG FCC MPP RoRo/RoPax Cruise ship Vehicle Offshore 2016 Self Help Mn GT 10 Contracting Scrapping Maritime Strategies International 13
14 Help from Unusual Places? Maritime Strategies International
15 Imminent Significant (3 rd +) Special Surveys Bulkers Tankers Containers LPG Maritime Strategies International 15
16 Supply Side Saviour Many sectors will witness stagnant growth post 2016 Maritime Strategies International
17 Pricing a Recovery Earnings Maritime Strategies International
18 Crude and Product Tanker LPG Carrier OSVs Rigs PCTC Bulker Container MPP LNG Chemical Tanker RoRo Where on the Earnings Cycle Are We? Maritime Strategies International 18
19 At Todays Prices it makes Sense for Some Based on 60% financing of a 5 Year Old Maritime Strategies International
20 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Bigger they are the Harder they Fall 000 $/day 1.7 k TEU 2.1 k TEU 4.4 k TEU 6.5/7 k TEU Biggest vessels in liquid charter market hardest hit but it s not a case of obsolesce but lack of demand Maritime Strategies International 20
21 But History Shows Size Does Matter Eventually 000 $/day Aframax VLCC Fall in tanker demand hit largest vessels in charter market hardest but when demand increased the rates realigned Maritime Strategies International 21
22 RoRo Crude and Product Tanker LPG Carrier MPP Rigs OSVs Container PCTC Bulker LNG Chemical Tanker and where are we heading? Maritime Strategies International 22
23 Pricing a Recovery Newbuilding Prices Maritime Strategies International
24 Forward Cover = Yard Pricing Power MSI s Shipbuilding Model Sector Specific Freight Rates Regional Yard Developments & Capacity Sector Specific Contracting Global Yard Capacity Global Orderbook Forward Berth Cover (years) Average Yard Price Index ($ CGT) Newbuilding Price (by vessel type by size) Global Cost Components (steel & machinery price, exchange rates) Regional Cost Components (wage, inflation, productivity) Weighted Average of Yard Costs Costs = Yard Pricing Floor Maritime Strategies International Ltd. 24
25 2016 Contracting Woefully Low Naikai Zosen Beihai Large number of yards that have taken minimal/zero orders in 2016 AVIC Weihai Shanghai JMU Kure COSCO Zhoushan Jinhai HI Xiamen SWS JMU Ariake Jiangsu New Imabari H. Mipo H. Samho Samsung HHI DSME Yards that have taken at least 0.1 Mn CGT of contracts in a single year Maritime Strategies International
26 Shipyard Capacity Is a Worry Mn CGT Other Europe China Korea Japan Maritime Strategies International 26
27 Newbuilding Price Dynamics Cost pressure will stop NB prices falling further in 2018 Maritime Strategies International
28 Pricing a Recovery Secondhand Prices Maritime Strategies International
29 0 Yr Old 5 Yr Old 10 Yr Old 15 Yr Old 20 Yr Old 25 Yr Old How Bad is it? % NRV 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% All time lows VLCC Tanker (1983) Panamax Bulker (1983) Panamax FCC (Aug 2016) Handy Bulker (Aug 2016) Drillship (Aug 2016)* 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% * Re-expressed for 25 year life expectancy Maritime Strategies International 29
30 Currency Pain Relief Maritime Strategies International
31 Not as Bad as it Might First Appear for Some Maritime Strategies International
32 Pricing a Recovery Recovery? Maritime Strategies International
33 MSI - FMV MSI Forecast Marine evaluator (FMV) is the first web-based tool to provide forecast and historical price data covering virtually all of the deepsea shipping fleet. Data includes forecasts of newbuilding, second-hand prices, 1 year timecharter rates and operating costs for specific vessels. MSI FMV draws on MSI s proven, proprietary models and a consistent cross-sectional view across all principal shipping sectors. It puts asset values in the context of the near term market to enable reliable benchmarking with outputs based on annual averages. Coverage: Crude Oil Tanker Chemical Tanker Multi Purpose Product Oil Tanker LPG Carrier Containership Dry Bulk Carrier LNG Carrier PCC/PCTC /fmv Maritime Strategies International 33
34 FMV Output Quarterly Fair Market Value & 1 Year Time Charter Rate (1Q history, current Q, 2Q forecast Annual average: Newbuilding contract price Fair Market Value 1 Year Time Charter Rate Operating Cost 5 years history and 15 years forecast Price Development Chart detailing forecast price development in relation to historical metrics /fmv Maritime Strategies International 34
35 Asset Play Prognosis Buy 5 year old today sell in 5 years time Maritime Strategies International 35
36 When driving up the mountain don t forget to bail out before its too late! Thank You for Listening Maritime Strategies International 36
37 MSI Background For over 30 years, MSI has developed integrated relationships with a diverse client base of financial institutions, ship owners, shipyards, brokers, investors, insurers and equipment and service providers. MSI s expertise covers a broad range of shipping sectors, providing clients with a combination of sector reports, forecasting models, vessel valuations and bespoke consultancy services. MSI is staffed by economists and scientists offering a structured quantitative perspective to shipping analysis combined with a wide range of industry experience. MSI balances analytical power with service flexibility, offering a comprehensive support structure and a sound foundation on which to build investment strategies and monitor/assess exposure to market risks. Maritime Strategies International 37
38 Disclaimer While this document has been prepared, and is presented, in good faith, Maritime Strategies International assumes no responsibility for errors of fact, opinion or market changes, and cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred or action arising as a result of information contained in this document. The copyright and other intellectual property rights in data, information or advice contained in this document are and will at all times remain the property of Maritime Strategies International. Maritime Strategies International 38
39 Maritime Strategies International Ltd 6 Baden Place Crosby Row London SE1 1YW United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) info@msiltd.com
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