Tracking the Trucking Industry 2004 and Beyond

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1 Tracking the Trucking Industry 2004 and Beyond Presented by Dan Murray American Transportation Research Institute March 4, 2005

2 Presentation Outline 1. General Economics 2. Trucking Economics 3. Freight Comparisons 4. Strategic Issues 5. ATRI Research Overview

3 Today s Trucking Economics

4 Truck Freight Volumes

5 Freight Transportation Modal Share (2003 Revenue) Pipeline 4% Rail 5% Water 1% Rail Intermodal 1% Air 2% LTL Private TL Trucking 87% $610 Billion Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast To 2015 American Trucking Associations, 2004

6 Trucking s Progress Since 1985 ATA s Monthly Truck Tonnage Index (1993 = 100) 6% Average Annual Growth Rate Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Source: American Trucking Associations

7 ATA s Monthly Truck Tonnage Index 1993=100 ATA s Monthly Truck Tonnage Index (1993 = 100) Year-to-date, through September, truck tonnage is up 7.0% compared to the same period in Source: American Trucking Associations

8 225 Truckload Loads (1996=100; average length of haul basis) Short-haul (Less than 500 miles) Medium-haul (500 to 1,000 miles) Long-haul (Greater than 1,000 miles) Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report

9 U.S. Class 8 Truck Sales 300, ,000 = Forecast 200, , ,000 50, Sources: Ward s Communications & ATA

10 1,250 1, Higher Diesel Prices Lead To More Trucking Failures $1.65 $1.55 $1.45 $1.35 $1.25 $1.15 $1.05 $0.95 Q1 90 Q1 91 Q1 92 Q1 93 Q1 94 Q1 95 Q1 96 Q1 97 Q1 98 Q1 99 Q1 00 Q1 01 Q1 02 Q1 03 Trucking Failures National Avg. Price of Diesel Fuel Sources: A.G. Edwards & ATA

11 Insurance Cost per Truck $6,500 $6,100 $5,700 $5,300 $4,900 $4,500 Data based on publicly held truckload carriers which disclose this information

12 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Truckload Driver Turnover (Quarterly Annualized Rates ) Large TL Small TL Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report

13 Shippers Believe TL Capacity Is Tight (September Survey) Over Capacity 13% Balanced 15% Extremely Tight 30% Tight 42% Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

14 Freight Growth

15 Industry Snapshot: Truck Tonnage Total Tonnage Moved: Billion Tons Billion Tons A 13.7% increase in 6 years. Trucks carry 68.9% of total domestic tonnage in the U.S. U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast To 2014

16 Total Revenue: Industry Snapshot: Truck Revenue $585.3 Billion $745.0 Billion A 27.2% increase in 6 years. Trucking revenue represents 86.9% of all freight revenue

17 Trucking Industry Snapshot: Firms, Employment & Equipment 660,000 Interstate For-Hire Carriers Total Employment: million employees million truck drivers (CDL) 2.6 Million Class 8 Trucks; 4.9 Million Trailers

18 Non-Trucking Freight Growth Rail Trends 1.75 Billion Tons Moved in 2002 Estimated Annual Rail Car Tonnage Growth : 2.2% Rail Carload Revenue $34.7 Billion Key Issue: intermodal growth way up (9.1% in Q2, 04); Rail capacity?

19 Non-Trucking Freight Growth Air Cargo Trends 17.4 Million tons moved in 2002 Estimated Annual Tonnage Growth : 4.7% Air Cargo Revenue $14.1 Billion Key Issue: Air cargo interline service growing fast! Airlines in crisis

20 Operating Ratios All Carriers (except HHG) 95.91% Revenue over $25M 95.36% Revenue $5M to $25M 98.29% Revenue under $5M 99.47%

21 Strategic Issues Taxes and User Fees 2003 Annual Taxes Paid on 5-Axle Semi: State- $4,567 Federal - $6,139 TOTAL - $10,706 SafeTea: New User Fees & Diversions?

22 Strategic Issues Insurance Costs 20% - 50% increases for good carriers in 2003; 2004 high but stable New Hours of Service Regulations? Likely in 9/05 Fuel Cost Volatility Jan $1.16/Gallon June 04 - $2.00/Gallon Oct $2.16/Gallon

23 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 National On-Highway Average Diesel Fuel Price ($/Gallon) Average Price 1994 to Present ($1.30/gallon) $ Sources: Department of Energy & ATA

24 Strategic Issues Driver Issues HOS Heated Economy & Wage Increases Looming Retirements Turn-over vs. Churning Technology Utilization Growing; Faster Among Large Carriers

25 Strategic Issues Congestion Problematic but solutions may be worse Tolls (Kennedy s FAST Lanes meet industry requirements) Truck Bans Security Costs?? US Patriot Act Truck Tracking Port Systems Customs ACE TWIC Shipper-Carrier Relationships

26 Strategic ATRI Research Projects New HOS: Safety & Productivity Impacts Partners include UVA & FMCSA CMV Enforcement Statistical research resulting in predictive model for driver accidents and violations Freight Information Highway FHWA- & Industry-sponsored initiative to increase electronic supply chain data transactions Includes data privacy recommendations Web services architecture

27 Additional ATRI Research Projects Onboard Safety Systems FMCSA- & Truck OEM-sponsored Developing Real-Time Freight Performance Measures FHWA-sponsored project utilizing satellite tracking National Hazmat Transport Security Field Test US DOT & TSA Results in early 1/05 Food Transport Security Guidebook USDA-sponsored

28 Freight Performance Measures Research Priority from Agenda Utilizing Truck Technologies to Maximize Transportation Planning and Efficiency Original beta test utilized satellite vehicle tracking and new mapping technologies to determine average travel speeds and times for freight-significant corridors

29 Freight Performance Measures Phase Two nearing completion 3-month data collection with enhanced processing and analysis tools in development stage FPM Stakeholders Forum held in April Initial Canadian Border Crossing Study to be complete by late-september

30 Freight Performance Measures Proposed Phase Three Activities: Will finalize FPM concepts and ATRI-developed processing and analysis methods Will continue work with technology provider, industry and state governments to determine value of FPM Will expand corridors from 5 to 25 Continuation of Canadian Border Study Analysis of Mexican Border Opportunities

31 Freight Information Highway Part of the US DOT EFM initiative ATRI is developing a Concept of Operations for a Freight Information Highway Will allow defined users to access and use information to government services and support supply chain activity Tasks include: Development of technical architecture for FIH Formulation of institutional data privacy tools to enhance/protect data management and data sharing Research includes FIH Steering Committee of industry stakeholders

32 Typical Supply Chain Data Scenario Disparate Legacy Systems Each System Requiring Direct Connections to Support Data Collaboration between Supply Chain Partners

33 Thanks! Questions?

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