Freight Trends: Moving Goods in the 21 st Century

Transcription

1 Freight Trends: Moving Goods in the 21 st Century Jason J. Bittner Associate Researcher Deputy Director National Center for Freight and Infrastructure Research and Education (CFIRE) University of Wisconsin-Madison April 10, 2008

2 Overview 2 Background on CFIRE Quick History on Freight Movements in America Freight Demand Driving Factors Freight Implications Solutions

3 CFIRE 3 Theme: Sustainable Freight Transportation Infrastructure and Systems 1 of 10 federally funded USDOT National University Transportation Centers Dr. Teresa M. Adams, Director Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering

4 CFIRE 4 4 Signature Technical Areas of Research: Design, Materials and Construction Processes (Chair, Dr. Michael Oliva) Multimodal Systems Planning and Optimization (Chair, Dr. Jessica Guo) Traffic Operations and Safety (Chair, Dr. David Noyce) Energy and Environment (Chair, Dr. Tracey Holloway)

5 18th 5 Century/Sail Era

6 19th 6 Century/Rail Era

7 20th 7 Century/Truck Era

8 8 21st Century/Information Era Atlantic Coast Canadian Border Pacific Coast Gulf Coast Mexican Border

9 The 9 Big Picture Economy: Manufacturing to Service Decline in manufacturing employment, but increase in manufacturing output Customer-driven shift to customized, mass-market market products and services Emergence of e-freight; e internet based ordering and distribution

10 Freight 10 Tonnage is increasing Source: Global Insight, Inc., 2004 TRANSEARCH data and economic forecasts.

11 11 Freight Demand Growth Air Other Water Rail Truck Total Percent Rail Freight Source: Global Insight, Inc.

12 Factors 12 Driving Freight Demand Consumption Population growth Consumption habits Production & Distribution Changes in Location and Practices Trade Expanded import and export movements (globalization) Supply Chain Optimization

13 13 Mega Regions / Consumption Source: Carbonell et al, Global Gateway Regions, The United States of America s Third Century Strategy, Southern California Association of Governments, Los Angeles, CA, Sept. 2005

14 Mega 14 Regions Source: America 2050 Regional Plan Association 4 Irving Place, 7th Floor, New York, NY Copyright America 2050, 2006

15 Production 15 Changes from push to pull systems

16 Source: Jean Paul Rodrigue, Hofsta University Trade 16 Traffic at 50 Largest Container Ports, 2004

17 Imports 17 / Exports 2005

18 Source: State of Logistics Report, Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, 2006 Supply 18 Chain Optimization Year

19 Logistics Improvements, 19 Manufacturing Days

20 Freight 20 Implications Smaller shipments of light, high- value freight moving longer distances Reliability and speed increasingly important Increasing demand for packaged and air freight services Carrier consolidation to drive down the cost of operation

21 Freight Flow by Mode

22 22 Local vs. Regional Trip length= <100 miles 100<Trip length =<200 miles 200<Trip length =<300 miles 300<Trip length =500 miles Trip length >500 miles

23 23 Freight Rail and Public Policy 2005 Rail Tons 2005 Truck Tons 2035 Additional Rail Tons 2035 Additional Truck Tons Source: National Rail Freight Infrastructure Capacity and Investment Study, Sept 2007

24 24 Issues Reliability & Predictability of transportation services Land Use Capacity Productivity Air Quality

25 Source: Cambridge Systematics Reliability & Bottlenecks

26 26 Freight Flow by Mode/Bottlenecks

27 27 Land Use Delicate Balance Recreation Housing Economic Activity Ports are land constrained

28 Capacity 28 All modes have capacity issues Rail conditions Highway congestion Locks and Dams Shipping

29 Productivity 29 (Size/Weight) Infrastructure Concerns Bridges Safety Concerns Stopping distances Collision severity Geometry

30 Possible 30 Solutions Do nothing Reduce consumption Use Information Technology solutions Advanced traffic management systems Better Traveler Information WIM / VII Policy and financing developments New freight transportation network Congestion pricing Mileage based tax vs. excise tax/gallon Managed lanes // Electronic tolling Size and Weight Modifications (increase productivity) Public Transportation Improvements Add infrastructure Expand: more roadway lanes, more railway lines New roadway/railway

31 Corridors 31 of the Future

32 I-70 Truck Lane 32 Project Corridor

33 Concept 33

34 National 34 Commission on Transportation Policy & Revenue Freight Transportation: A Program to Enhance U.S. Global Competitiveness Congestion Relief: A Program for Improved Metropolitan Mobility Environmental Stewardship: Investment Program to Support a Healthy Environment Energy Security: Accelerate the Development of Environmentally-Friendly Replacement Fuels Research, Development, & Technology: A Coherent Research Program for the Nation Intercity Passenger Rail: A Program to Serve High-Growth Corridors by Rail

35 35 Contact National Center for Freight & Infrastructure Research and Education (CFIRE)( Dr. Teresa Adams, Director, Jason Bittner, Deputy Director, /