March Corporation

Transcription

1 March 2018 Union Pacific Corporation 1

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3 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Company s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Company s expectations with respect to economic conditions; its ability to generate financial returns, improve resource productivity and use innovation to enhance customer experience; implementing corporate strategies; and providing excellent service to its customers and returns to its shareholders. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of Forward-looking statements also generally include, without t limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Company s and its subsidiaries business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Company s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Company s and its subsidiaries future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Company s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2017, which was filed with the SEC on February 9, The Company updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Company does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Company will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein. 2 March 2018 Current Overview / Business Update 3

4 2017 Full Year Results Earnings Per Share Operating Ratio $ % $5.79 $ pts Adjusted* 2017 Reported Adjusted* 2017 Reported * Adjusted to exclude the impact of Corporate Tax Reform. See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP. 4 New Commodity Group Mapping Agricultural Products Energy Industrial Premium Grain PRB Coal Construction Dom Intermodal Grain Products Other Coal Industrial Chem Int l Intermodal Food & Beverage Frac Sand Plastics Finished Vehicles Fertilizer Petroleum & LPG Forest Products Auto Parts Renewables Specialized Metals & Ores Soda Ash 5

5 2018 Business Trends Day Monthly Carloadings (000s) QTD Volumes* (vs 2017) Agricultural Products -4% 190 Premium Flat Industrial +2% 150 Energy +2% 130 January December TOTAL Flat *Through February 25, Volume Drivers 2017 vs compared to 2016 vs (carloads) 59% 6% 12% 1% 2% Flat 1% Flat 1% -4% -2% -11% -3% -6% -4% -6% -20% -38% Shale-Related Coal Grain Chemicals (excl Crude) Domestic Intermodal International Intermodal Automotive Construction Other 2017 vs vs

6 7-Day Volume Trends Through February 25, ,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 Jan Agricultural Products ,000 40,000 30, Energy , ,000 0 Dec Jan Dec 2018 YTD down 4% 2018 YTD up 2% 2017 Grain Inventories Export Market Fundamentals Food & Refrigerated Shipment Demand Natural Gas Prices Inventory Management Weather & Economy Frac Sand Demand Crude Oil Prices & Spreads 8 7-Day Volume Trends (cont) Through February 25, ,000 35,000 30,000 Industrial ,000 Premium 80, , ,000 20,000 Jan 60,000 50,000 Dec Jan 2018 YTD up 2% 2018 YTD Flat Dec Construction-Related Materials Housing Activity U.S. Dollar Impact Plastics Demand Base Chemicals Remain Solid North American Production & Sales Over-the-Road Parts Conversions Intermodal Market Fundamentals Transpacific Market Challenges 9

7 Network Performance Good UP Velocity (As reported to the AAR, in mph) Improve Network Fluidity 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Good 28.6 UP Terminal Dwell (As reported to the AAR, in hours) PTC Implementation & Testing Transportation Plan Execution 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 10 Volume and Performance Drive Resources Remaining Agile in a Dynamic Environment Total TE&Y* TE&Y Workforce 4Q17 Up 6% vs 4Q16 Mechanical & Engineering Workforce 4Q17 Down 4% vs 4Q16 Locomotives 4Q17 Up 6% vs 4Q16 14,141 13,761 14,065 13,838 14,015 14,282 14,438 14,701 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Active Locomotive Fleet 6,590 6,399 6,547 6,567 6,774 6,666 6,844 6,947 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 * Full-time Equivalent 11

8 March 2018 Business Team Review 12 The Strength of a Unique Franchise Excellent Network Strategic Terminal Locations Broad Port Access Border and Interchange Coverage Business Mix 2017 Freight Revenue:$19.8B Automotive Distribution Centers Intermodal Terminals Manifest Terminals Ports Border Crossings, Gateways and Interchanges Premium 29% Industrial 26% Ag Products 22% Energy 23% 13

9 Economic Outlook Metric Forecast Gross Domestic Product (%) (avg) Industrial Production (%) (avg) Light Vehicle Sales (Millions) (avg) Housing Starts (Millions) (avg) Imports (%) incl Petroleum (avg) Exports (%) (avg) Unemployment (%) (avg) Source: February 2018 IHS Global Insight forecast Volume Outlook Agricultural Products Energy Industrial Premium + Ethanol Exports + Food and Refrigerated? Grain?FracSand? Natural Gas Prices - Continued Coal Headwinds + Plastics + Construction Products + Industrial Production + Over-the-Road Conversions + International Intermodal - Automotive Sales 15

10 International Trade Diverse Franchise Creates Opportunity Off-shoring/ Near-shoring of U.S. Manufacturing Demand for Grain and Food Low Natural Gas Prices Favor U.S. Plastics Production Impacts from a Strong U.S. Dollar Negative: Steel, Grain, Coal Positive: International Intermodal 2017 Freight Volumes Domestic 61% Other Imports 16% Other Exports 12% Exports to Mexico 5% Imports from Mexico 6% Other 6% Plastics 1% Soda Ash 2% Fertilizer 2% Food & Beverage 3% Grain Products 3% International Volumes (3.4M carloads) Coal 3% Grain 5% Mexico Intermodal 6% Vehicles & Parts 18% Intermodal (excl Mexico) 51% 16 Agricultural Products 2017 Revenue: $4.3 Billion Grain ExportsProduce Dairy Major Grain & Grain Products Region Produce Dairy, Poultry Dairy Cattle Cattle Origination Domestic Markets Export Markets Mexico Mexico Cattle, Poultry Grain Exports 17

11 Agricultural Products 2017 Volume Mix Food & Beverage 18% Fertilizer 16% Grain Products 27% Grain 39% 9,000 7,500 6,000 4,500 3,000 UNP Weekly Grain Carloads* (As reported to the AAR) Q 2Q 3Q Q 2017 Grain Inventory Management Export Market Fundamentals Food & Beverage Shipment Demand *Through February 24, U.S. Grain Stocks** (Bushels in Billions) Corn Soybeans Wheat **Source: USDA; As of Dec 1 st Industrial 2017 Volume Mix 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Construction UNP Monthly Volumes Plastics Industrial Chemicals Specialized 12% Soda Ash 7% Plastics Construction Products 16% 37% Metals 10% Construction 23% Lumber 11% Industrial Chemicals 18% Forest Products 14% Construction-Related Materials 15,000 Housing Activity 10, U.S. Dollar Impact Plastics Demand Base Chemicals Remain Solid 19

12 Housing Trends Housing Market still well Below Historical Averages UP Lumber, Stone & Glass Business Correlates with Housing Starts Housing also Drives Appliances, Roofing, Rebar, Aggregates, and Cement Demand Housing related Shipments Represent ~ 5-10% of Current UP Volumes UP Wkly Carloadings* 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Lumber, Stone & Glass *Through February 24, 2018 Housing Starts (mils) Feb 2018 IHS Global Insight forecast 20 Chemical Opportunities North America Announced Expansions Seattle Eastport Portland Duluth Twin Cities Ind. Chemicals - 14 Fertilizer - 13 Plastics - 21 Oakland Salt Lake City Denver Omaha St. Louis Kansas City Chicago Memphis LA Calexico El Paso Dallas Nogales Eagle Pass Coatzacoalcos, VL Laredo Houston Houston New Orleans Brownsville 21

13 Chemical Export Opportunities North American Production Will Exceed Domestic Demand Surplus U.S. Production Targeted for Export UP Uniquely Positioned to Handle Expansion Related Growth Likely Export Flow Packaging Asia & Europe Asia South America Europe & Africa 22 Energy - Coal Trends 45,000 UNP Weekly Coal Carloads* (As reported to the AAR) 35, ,000 15,000 5, Q Q Weather Impacts Demand 3Q Q Natural Gas Prices Coal Inventory Levels Powder River Basin Coal Stockpiles* (Tons in MM) Inventory 5-Year Average *Energy Ventures Analysis Jan 2018 Electricity Generation Market Share** % from coal % from natural gas 50% 21% 46% 22% 40% 39% 25% 27% 34% 29% 12 32% 32% *Through February 24, Q 07 4Q 09 4Q 11 4Q 13 **U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 4Q 15 4Q 17 23

14 Shale-Related Volumes 3.3% of 2017 Total Volume 2017 Volume (000s) % Incr (vs 16) % of Total UP Volume Frac Sand* % 2.9% Crude 14-70% 0.2% Pipe 19 68% 0.2% Total Shale % 3.3% Frac Sand Drivers Energy Prices Rig Counts Enhanced Fracking Technology White / Brown Sand Mix 76 Frac Sand Volume* (By Shale, 000s) Eagle Ford Permian Niobrara Marcellus/Utica Bakken Haynesville Other Crude Oil Volume (000s) *Includes Barites 24 Premium - Intermodal UNP Monthly Intermodal Volume International Domestic 180, , , Volume Mix International 47% Domestic 53% 120, ,000 80,000 Mar-15 West Coast Port Labor Issues Trans Pacific Market Challenges Truck Capacity & Economic Outlook 25

15 Domestic Intermodal Growth Comprehensive Network Significant Domestic Truck-Load Conversion Opportunity Truckload Opportunity Originating from Mexico Strong Value Proposition Competitive Service at an Affordable Price Environmental Friendliness Truck s Traditional Advantage is Eroding Regulations & Rising Costs Highway Congestion & Infrastructure 1,452 1,475 1,159 1,250 Domestic Volumes (Units in 000 s) +51% 1,791 1,746 1,748 1,754 1,526 1, International Intermodal Transpacific Market Challenges Retail Inventories West Coast Port Advantages Prince Rupert, Canada Vancouver SEA/TAC NY/NJ 23 days via Panama / 27 days via Suez* Oakland Los Angeles Chicago Norfolk *Water transit days at 19 knots from Shanghai Favors West Coast Ports Houston East Coast Canal Neutral Panama Canal From Suez Canal 27

16 Premium - Automotive 2017 Volume Mix Seattle Portland Oakland Salt Lake City Eastport Twin Cities Omaha Denver Kansas City Duluth Chicago St. Louis Auto Parts 48% Finished Vehicles 52% U.S. Light Vehicle SAAR* Los Angeles Dallas Memphis Borders & Interchange Distribution Centers/Ports (UP Owned/Leased and Private) Assembly Centers (UP served) Houston New Orleans E 2019E 2020E *Source: February 2018 IHS Global Insight forecast 28 North American Auto Production 20 North American Light Vehicle Production Forecast* Millions E 2019E United States Mexico Canada *Source: IHS Global Insight January

17 Mexican Automotive Production Growth Mexico Auto Production* 7 th Largest Automotive Manufacturer (In Millions) 4 th Largest Automotive Exporter No. 2 Supplier of Vehicles to U.S '05 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18E '19E * January 2018 IHS Global Insight New Finished Vehicle Plants, VW Puebla Mazda Salamanca Honda Celaya Kia Pesqueria Mercedes-Benz Aguascalientes Toyota Guanajuato MEXICO FACTORIES *Sources: Ministry of Economy, Maquila Portal, El Economista and Financiero Newspaper, Pro Mexico, OICA GM San Luis Potosi Nissan Aguascalientes Audi San Jose Chiapa BMW San Luis Potosi 30 UP Positioned for Mexico Growth 750 Volume Growth (Carloads in Thousands) +33% '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 ' Volume Mix (In Carloads) Ag Products 16% Premium 66% Energy 6% Industrial 12% 31

18 March 2018 Operating Overview 32 Safety 1.10 Employee (Reportable Personal Injury Incidents Per 200,000 Employee-Hours) Good Rail Equipment (Reportable Derailment Incidents Per Million Train Miles) % % FY Record Good FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Public FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 (Crossing Accidents Per Million Train Miles) Goal of Zero Incidents Good +5% Community Partnerships and Public Safety Campaigns FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 33

19 Network Performance Dynamic Environment Strategic Investments Balancing Resources with Demand Focus on Further Improving Service & Costs (000s) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Day Carloads Velocity * (MPH) *As reported to the AAR 34 Strengthening the Franchise Replacement, Growth & Productivity, and PTC 2018 Capital Plan: ~$3.3 Billion ($ in Millions) Infrastructure Replacement $1,970 Locomotives/ Equipment $460 PTC $160 Technology/ Other $240 Capacity/ Commercial Facilities $445 Safe & Resilient Infrastructure Equipment Acquisitions ~60 New Locomotives ~700 Freight Cars Positive Train Control Capacity Investments Brazos Yard 35

20 Rail The Green Alternative Each train can take up to 300 trucks off highways Three times cleaner than trucks on a ton-mile basis Conversion of 10% long-haul truck freight would eliminate more than 10 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions annually Energy Consumption Four times more fuel efficient than trucks Can haul one ton of freight 456 miles on one gallon of fuel Intercity Freight Transportation (Based on Ton Miles) Other Freight 26% Trucking 31% Freight RRs 43% Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions Other Freight 17% Trucking 74% Freight RRs 9% Source: EPA, AAR 36 Positive Train Control (PTC) Status Overview Approximately $2.6 Billion Invested through December 2017 Total Estimated Investment ~ $2.9 Billion Field Testing since October 2013 New Deadline: December 31, 2018 DOT Secretary has Option to Further Extend Deadline an Additional 2 Years 37

21 Pioneering Innovation Big I, Little i, The Internet of Things Mobile Work Order Real-Time Work Event Reporting Provides More Shipment Visibility and Improves Local Service UP GO Mobile Technology to Pre- Validate Gate Information Reduces Driver Gate Time Improves Ramp Inventory Location Accuracy Hand Held Ultrasound Detects Subsurface Cracks in Wheel Tread Using Ultrasound Machine Vision High Resolution Images and Alert Generation 50,000 Images per Second vs 4 Hour Manual Inspection Process 38 March 2018 Financial Review 39

22 Financial Performance Operating Ratio EPS ROIC** 87.5% points +19% CAGR $5.49 $5.79 $ % +8.4 points 12.7% 13.7% 63.1% 63.5% 63.0% 7 Day 184K 7 Day 177K 7 Day 165K 7 Day 168K $ % 2004* * 2004* * 2004* * * 2004 adjusted for asbestos pre-tax charge of $247.4 million adjusted to exclude the impact of Corporate Tax Reform. ** See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP. 40 Pricing Fundamentals Value is the Key to Future Price Improvement Balanced Portfolio Provides Flexibility for Repricing as Value Grows Solid Core Pricing Balanced Revenue Portfolio Contracts > 1 Year 40% Tariffs 30% Contracts < 1 Year 30% 41

23 Productivity Initiatives: Network and TE&Y / Train length / Train Ops Intermodal & Premium Ops / Joint facility 2017 Results ($ in millions) $110 Equipment (Loco and Car) Active fleet / Car repair / Equip rental costs $90 $36 $22 $36 $21 $70 $15 $8 $75 $5 $20 Other Ops, Support, Sourcing and Safety Engineering / Fuel conservation / Admin / Supply Chain / Sourcing / Safety performance $53 $47 $50 $32 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q Full Year Productivity: $345M 42 Growing the Margins 60 +/- OR 87.5 Operating Ratio (Percent) / * Day Volume (000s) Target Realizing 55 * Adjusted to exclude the impact of Corporate Tax Reform. 43

24 Capital Program Supported by Returns $2.5 Capital Program & Returns** (Capital in Billions) 10.8% $3.2 ROIC* $4.3 $4.1 $3 7 $ Profitability Drives Cash Flow $3.7 $3.6 $3.5 $3.1 ~$3.3 Supports Investments that 16.2% must meet high return 14.3% 13.7% 12.7% hurdles * 2018 E Infrastructure Replacement Locomotives / Equipment Capacity / Commercial Facilities Technology / Other Positive Train Control Supports Core Pricing that Drives Continued Investment * Adjusted to exclude the impact of Corporate Tax Reform. ** See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP. 44 Optimizing the Balance Sheet Adjusted Debt / EBITDA* Adjusted Debt ($ In Millions) /31/13** 12/31/14** 12/31/15 12/31/16 12/31/17 $12, % $14, % $17,390 $17, % 47.3% $19, %^ 12/31/13** 12/31/14** 12/31/15 12/31/16 12/31/17 Adjusted Debt to Capital Investment Grade Credit Rating Increased Adj. Debt ~$6.7 Billion since 2013 ^ Adjusted to exclude the impact of Corporate Tax Reform. * See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP. ** Prior periods have been adjusted for the retrospective adoption of Accounting Standard Update

25 Delivering Value to Shareholders Declared Dividend Per Share (cents) x Dividend Payout Target of 40% to 45% 10% Dividend Per Share Increase in 4Q 2017 & 1Q Q Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q Cash Returned to Shareholders (Share Repurchases & Dividends, ds, $ In Billions) $5.8 $6.0 $4.9 $5.0 $3.6 79% 83% 66% 66% 52% % of Cash from Operations Returned ~$25.2 Billion of Cash to Shareholders h since 2013 Averaged 69% of Total Cash From Operations 46 Share Repurchases Cumulative Share Repurchases (In Millions) Repurchased ~32% of Shares since 2007 Continue Opportunistic Approach Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions) $22.0 $19.1 $16.0 $12.6 $ Share Repurchase Program Four Years Beginning January 1, Million Shares Prior Program Expired December 31,

26 Impacts from Tax Reform in 2018 Taxes and Cash Flow - Income Tax Rate: ~25% 4Q14: $438 - Cash Tax Rate: 17% to 18% - Cash Flow: +$1 Billion Capital Allocation - Capital Spending: 6% Increase to $3.3 Billion - Dividends: 10% Increase in 1Q18 - Share Repurchases: Up vs Growing Shareholder Value KEY DRIVERS Moderate Economy Diverse Franchise Opportunities Strong Value Proposition - Reinvestability Positive Volume Growth Real Core Price Gains Volume + Pricing + Productivity Replacement & Productivity it Growth with High Returns Increasing Cash Generation Re-Evaluate Optimal Capital Structure Strong Investment Grade Operating Ratio 60% +/- CapEx likely closer to 15% of revenue Dividend Payout Target of 40% - 45% Opportunistic Share Repurchases 49

27 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Company s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Company s expectations with respect to economic conditions; its ability to generate financial returns, improve resource productivity and use innovation to enhance customer experience; implementing corporate strategies; and providing excellent service to its customers and returns to its shareholders. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of Forward-looking statements also generally include, without t limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Company s and its subsidiaries business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Company s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Company s and its subsidiaries future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Company s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2017, which was filed with the SEC on February 9, The Company updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Company does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Company will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein. 50