Drivers of Congestion Growth & Change

Transcription

1 Drivers of Congestion Growth & Change A Congestion Blueprint Transport Policy Branch, Department of Transport and Main Roads 1

2 Our values, our diversity 2

3 Queensland Government s objectives for the community Advance Queensland 3

4 4 Our strategic plan

5 About us Creating a single integrated transport network accessible to everyone We manage: There were: Services provided: 33,343km state-controlled roads 3.5m drivers licensed 5m vehicles registered 3,260 taxis licensed 180m in SEQ 12.1m outside SEQ trips taken annually on bus, rail, ferry and light rail 3,029 bridges 256,151 recreational vessel registrations 997,289 boat licenses 20 ports 3.63m customers served face-to-face at 59 Customer Service Centres We serve: Our customers conducted 6.68m online services 2.5m go cards in use Over 490,000 passengers travel on the south-east Queensland network on average each day Statistics sourced from the Department of Transport and Main Roads Annual Report

6 A Congestion Blueprint 6 Drivers of Congestion Growth & Change 11 August 2017

7 Congestion progress in the past 3 years TMR s previous Congestion Management Approach delivered outcomes that have begun to prepare us for the future, including: A policy position around Excessive congestion An understanding of the causes of congestion A base line cost of congestion measure A determination of the worst excessive congestion points on the network Furthered data sharing with the other road owners. Independent review of previous CMA undertaken in

8 Learnings from our previous congestion work The economics approach is about right Travel time reliability is key to driving a more economically efficient level of congestion Communication is key Clear governance and accountability are needed to create the capability improvements needed to embed the economic approach to congestion in CMA One Network Leadership & P4O are critical A single mode approach is not effective, Multimodal congestion measurement needs to happen. 8

9 Related policy and planning activities In contributing to TMR s vision for Creating a single integrated transport network accessible to everyone, our aim is for a Blueprint that will: Position TMR s engagement with the national policy agenda through Traffic Demand Management project and Land Transport Market Reform. Respond to the State Infrastructure Plan and the Draft ShapingSEQ s strategies for the prioritisation of public and active transport. Inform future congestion-related planning activities through TMR s Regional Transport Plans being developed. Complement existing modal strategies such as Connecting Brisbane focused on the strategic integration of Cross River Rail and Brisbane Metro projects. Guide development of local government transports plans. Deliver a suite of policy and planning initiatives that shape TMR s operational activities. 9

10 The Blueprint - Our development approach 1 Discussion Paper An internal discussion paper canvassing multi-modal strategies to address excessive congestion and improve travel time reliability Multimodal 2 Congestion Blueprint A strategic approach for reducing congestion to effective levels and improving travel time reliability. Governance & Reporting Elements of a Revised Approach Excessive Congestion 3 Action Plan A package of future commitments to deliver on the vision for a reliable, integrated and efficient transport network Efficient Investments Influencing Demand 10

11 Future Drivers of Congestion Growth Economic & Population Growth Changing Customer Expectations Disruptive Technology Land Use Planning Cost of Transport Major Infrastructure Projects 11

12 Economic and Population Growth - Future Demand in South East Queensland Future Demand in SEQ Population ,372,000 Est. number of jobs (2015) 1.64 million 2041 Projected Population 5,349,000 = 1.98 million (additional residents) Data Source: ShapingSEQ Regional Plan Oct Data Source: State Infrastructure Plan: Part A. 12

13 Economic and Population Growth What we know about travel in SEQ Projected Weekday Person Trips by Sub- Region (Million) In SEQ over 80% per cent of all trips are undertaken by private vehicles. SUNSHINE COAST GOLD COAST GREATER BRISBANE By 2031 the number of vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) is expected to increase by another 56%. In the four years between , we saw a 10% increase in VKT in SEQ. In 2011, 16.5% of households had three or more vehicles, compared to 11.9% in Source: How Queensland Travels and SEQ 2031 Strategy Modelling Technical Paper

14 Economic and Population Growth Growing inter-regional demand (commuters) 14

15 Changing Customer Expectations TMR and RA have both identified our customer s needs Transport and Main Roads 1 Roads Australia 2 Dependability (reliability) Want journey reliability Expect more out of their transport asset. Value transparency and predictability Good value Don t understand what they pay for Want cheaper roads and less congestion. Personal relevance Confidence Safety Are annoyed more by the behaviour of other drivers than potholes Want better roads, more lanes and higher speed limits Perceive their road network is not good quality behaviours and expectations continue to change. [1] TransLink Customer Strategy [2] Roads Australia: Building the case for customers

16 Changing Customer Expectations Congestion is a significant and stressful issue and is perceived to be getting worse. People generally don t see themselves as contributing to the congestion issue nor do they identify individual ways they can help to improve it. People tend to make one-off (not long-term) changes to travel arrangements to deal with traffic (e.g. travel at different times, add in buffer times, change routes). People change travel behaviour based on shortterm need. Real-time information Directly Influence Transport Users Expectations Personalised on-demand service congestion policy & planning decisions Value for money High comfort & convenience People are open to communication on what is being done to improve congestion. 16

17 Changing Customer Expectations Access, connectivity & a customer focused organisation Changes in technology, the rise of the smartphone and changing customer behaviour have created new opportunities to develop innovative transport service models. Demand Responsive Transport TMR is delivering several initiatives that leverage consumer technologies and place the customer at the centre of our policy and service delivery: MyTransLink & QldTraffic apps Connected Autonomous Vehicle Initiative (CAVI) TransLink Customer Strategy and the Customer Experience project Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) DRT is the next evolution of the booked transport market and uses trip-booking technology, flexible routes and shared rides to meet customer needs. 17

18 Disruptive Technology Technologies will converge and diverge, accelerate change and the necessity for it. New business models are emerging causing wide-spread disruptions. Some aspects of the transport task will be replaced or modified. Unexpected outcomes can occur. Source: canterbrokerage.com 18

19 Disruptive Technology 19 Source: cbinsights.com

20 Disruptive Technology - Changed mobility and transport requirements By utilising technologies such as autonomous and shared vehicles, future road capacity needs will change: - Capacity requirements could pause in Capacity needs in 2050 could be similar to today s 20 Other Potential Network Impacts* * Findings from International Transport Forum Research of AVs when combined with high capacity public transport system Require 10% of the current fleet to service the same population Overall in Vehicle Kilometres Travelled 23%* less cars used in the peak periods Require 20% of kerb-to-kerb space and up to 80% of off-street parking

21 High uptake 100% AV High uptake 100% AV (70% Shared) Base Case 0% AV Moderate uptake 62% AV Disruptive Technology Modelling Autonomous vehicles

22 Disruptive Technology From Mass, to DRT, to MaaS Mass Transit Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) Mobility As A Service Personalised mobility - Multi-modal - Commuter and Passengerfocused - Timetablebased - Predefined routes. - Connects booked transport market - Trip-booking technology - Enhances customer choice - Flexible routes, optimised for shared services for short trips - Dynamic mobility Connects all service providers including delivery services Bundles transport options Enhances customer experience Intuitive journey management with shared services Commercial sales opportunities. 22

23 Land Use Planning Land use is a major influencing factor in the success of a passenger transport system. Land use patterns influence how and where people travel. Planning must integrate land use patterns with future transport needs to balance urban sprawl, equity, accessibility, and transport network outcomes such as reduced congestion. The freight task will increase and freight patterns will change. 23

24 Cost of Transport The cost of transport is a another key factor to consider when managing congestion. The current funding system does not contribute with moderating road usage due to lack of clear price signals to road users. Source: Funding Australia s Future Australian Automobile Association

25 Cost of Transport Currently all taxpayers pay the burden of building and maintaining roads regardless of their level of use. With the introduction of more fuel efficient technologies, fuel excise will fall affecting road related revenue. Australian Governments, through COAG, are working on identifying pathways for reform. 25

26 Cost of Transport - Travel Demand Management COAG s Infrastructure Working Group is further investigating the potential impacts of traffic demand management measures on road congestion in peak periods. This work recognises the significant and growing congestion on roads and public transport networks in Australia s major cities. Measures being examined were chosen for: their expected city-wide impacts on a scale that impacts peak congestion. Their policy implications and role as a complementary approach to operational initiatives (e.g. Austroads work). 26

27 Major Infrastructure Projects Queens Wharf Brisbane Cross River Rail Brisbane Metro 27

28 Future Drivers of Congestion Growth Economic & Population Growth Changing Customer Expectations Disruptive Technology Land Use Planning Cost of Transport Major Infrastructure Projects 28

29 Thank you and stay connected LinkedIn Department of Transport and Main Roads Blog blog.tmr.qld.gov.au 29