Best Practices in Supplier Business Planning

Transcription

1 IHS AUTOMOTIVE Presentation Best Practices in Supplier Business Planning IHS Automotive Conference Tokyo March ihs.com Hiroshi Ataka, Manager, Japan Component Forecasts and Analysis, , hiroshi.ataka@ihs.com 2015 IHS

2 IHS Automotive Conference Spring 2015 Contents COMPONENT GROUP PRACTICES 3 STATE OF THE INDUSTRY 9 LACK OF TRANSPARENCY 6 COMPONENT FORECAST ANALYTICS 9 OPPORTUNITY TARGETING 11 COMPETITOR ANALYSIS 13 LOGISTICS ANALYSIS 17 SUSTAINABILITY 20 SUMMARY IHS 2

3 Component Group Practices Component Forecast, Supplier Business and Technology Intelligences Supply Chain Strategy Business Strategy Supplying OEMs Profiles Supply Chain Resiliency Autonomous Vehicles Autonomous Driving ADAS Infotainment Infotainment Navigation Usability HMI & Usability Software Application/ Services Software & Applications xev Semiconductor Hybrid & EV Alternative Propulsion Charging Infrastructure Electrical/ Electronic Central Body Control Module Immobilizer Instrument Cluster Keyless Entry System Power Systems Sunroof TPMS Wire Harness Thermal HVAC Engine Cooling Cooled EGR Auxiliary Water Pump Charge Air Cooler New Refrigerant Thermal Expansion Valve Powertrain Intake Manifold Alternative Propulsion Camshaft Drive Fuel Injector Turbo/ Supercharger VVT Emission & Sensors Chassis Brake Assembly Steering Stabilizer Exterior Forward Lighting Tail Lamp Interior Airbag Clock Spring Airbag Module Instrument Panel Seating 2015 IHS 3

4 State of the Industry Total Industry Value and Growth Assembled Vehicles 80M growing to 100M units $430 Billion Annual Contribution to 26 Governments Global Growth Rate 4.1% CAGR Employment 9M Direct, 50M Adjacent $5Trillion AUTOS Annual Output Research & Development $85 Billion: Annual Spend Global Manufacturing 5% of Total Investment: $11.5 Billion for 23 New Vehicle Assembly Plants 100Million AUTOS Annual Production 2020 Investment: $4.2 Billion for70 New Auto Parts Plants Materials Demand to 2020: +43% Increase If the global automotive industry were a country, it would be the fifth-largest economy in the world. Source: IOMV, IHS, Others 2015 IHS 4

5 State of The Industry Market Dynamics for High Profit Margin Number of Global New Model Launch Number of Regional New Model Launch Suppliers need to accurately assess hundreds of Global New Model Launch Events for their success of business IHS 5

6 Lack of Transparency IHS is Creating The End to End Supply Chain Map IHS Automotive Conference Spring 2015 Markets: Consumer Facilities: Assembly Supply Chain: sbom (50+) Future IHS Extended Data Models Logistics Modes Add Bill of Lading information Port, Dock, Vessel, Quantity, Value, Ship From/To address Location Data Extend Data Model to add Supplier Plant Locations for TI, TII, TIII auto parts suppliers Map supplier tiers Countries 100 Manufacturer 550 Manufacturers of Vehicles, Engines, and Transmissions Plants Tier I: 1500 Suppliers & Technologies or Materials Interior/Exterior Electrical/Electronics Chassis Infotainment HVAC, Powertrain sbom (650) Extend Data Model to include all TI, TII, TIII Suppliers per vehicle OEM Bill of Material Taxonomy of parts and materials usage per vehicle system mbom Extend data model to include per-vehicle system materials usage (Attach to taxonomy) Rubber, Plastics, Copper, Steel, Aluminum 2015 IHS 6

7 Lack of Transparency Expertise Areas in Component Forecasts & Analysis HVAC A/C Compressor A/C Condenser A/C Hose & Tube HVAC Module (Basic) HVAC Module Blower/Evaporator HVAC Module Control ECU HVAC Module Control Panel/Zones HVAC Module Flap Actuator HVAC Module Sensor New Refrigerant Supplementary Heater Thermal Expansion Valve Exterior Forward Lighting Tail Lamp Cooling Active Grill Shutter Auxiliary Water Pump Charge Air Cooler Cooled EGR (CEGR) Engine Cooling Intelligent Engine Cooling Main & Auxiliary Water Pump Interior Airbag Clock Spring Airbag Module Door Trim Panel Floor Console Instrument Panel Seat Adjuster Seat Assembly Seat Backrest Frame Seat Cover Seat Cushion Frame Seat Ergonomics Seat Recliner Seat Power & Memory Seat Thermal Electrical/Electronics Airbag ECU Central Body Control Module Immobilizer Instrument Cluster Keyless Entry System OE Audio (Sales) OE Navigation OE Navigation (Sales) Power Closure Power Sunroof Power Window Sunroof System & Design Tire Pressure Monitoring Wire Harness Powertrain Alternative Propulsion (incl. Stop-Start Systems) Camshaft Drive Exhaust Cold End Exhaust Manifold Fuel Injector Intake Manifold Torque Transfer Turbo/Supercharger Variable Valve Timing (VVT) Chassis Brake Assembly Power Steering System Electrical/Electronics Technology Reports Trends of Next Generation 12V-24V Power-net Applications and CO 2 Reduction Potential Future Trends of Light Vehicle 48V Application and CO 2 Reduction Potential Are you watching the business of other components? Do you know the chance and risk behind your business? 2015 IHS 7

8 Lack of Transparency The Same Supplier Products for Multiple System Components Top 15 ECU Suppliers for the Different System Components HVAC Seat Memory Seat Climate CBCM / Smart Junction Box Keyless Entry Behr-Hella Continental Continental Continental Continental Denso Hella Hella Lear Denso Continental Aisin KWANG JIN WINTEC Bosch Hella Valeo Kostal Gentherm Sumitomo Electric Bosch PREH Imasen Panasonic Omron Omron Alps Electric Omron Kongsberg Denso Tokai Rika Halla Visteon Climate Control Lear Bosch Hella Valeo Calsonic Kansei Calsonic Kansei Denso Delphi TRW TRW YOUNG HWA TECH IGB Calsonic Kansei Lear Stanley Alps Electric Kurabe Yazaki Delphi Keihin Hyundai MOBIS Alps Electric Hyundai MOBIS Hyundai MOBIS Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Bosch Behr-Hella Johnson Controls Panasonic Delphi Denso PREH Daedong Daesung SH SANHUA E Johnson Controls Kostal Valeo Alps Electric SH F ELEC Magneti Marelli Valeo Keihin Calsonic Kansei Immobilizer Power Tail Gate Sunroof Power Window Power Steering Continental Continental Webasto Continental Mitsubishi Electric Bosch Stabilus Denso Denso Bosch Delphi Bosch Mitsuba Bosch Denso Denso Delphi Continental Kostal TRW TRW Magna Inteva Hella Hella Johnson Controls Aisin Nidec Valeo Nidec Valeo Denso Bosch Omron Hyundai MOBIS Tokai Rika Daesung Nedap Mitsuba Nexteer Omron Mitsuba Valeo Brose Mando-Hella Electronics STF Omron Omron Keihin Continental Hella Mitsui Kinzoku BYD Lear Hitachi Automotive Systems Lear Valeo Mahle Alps Electric Omron Visteon Kathrein Group Hella Daesung Mando Alps Electric Brose S&T Group Delphi Hubei Kait Keihin Panasonic Panasonic Calsonic Kansei Fujitsu Ten Do you know the business of your Tier 2, 3 Suppliers? 2015 IHS 8

9 Component Forecast Analytics The New Platform for your Decision Support Competitor Book of Business IHS Automotive Conference Spring 2015 Customer Purchasing Strategy Portfolio Valuation ($) Top Value/Volume Programs Volumes/Applications Customer Alignment Value: Complete Transparency Plant Location & Capacity Plant City/State Capacity/Peak Capacity Vehicle Models Supplied Vehicle Plant Supplied Global Value: Assess Competitor s Ability to Respond or Logistics Advantage Sourcing Calendar New Programs Available for Bid to 2020 Value: Anticipate/Select RFQs Win Growth Transparency Suppler Alignment and Share Top Value/Volume Programs Volumes/Applications Suppliers Value: Complete Transparency Win/Loss Scorecard Program Wins/Losses Value: Monitor the Market Supply Power Assessment Leverage by Customer Value: Predict likely Winner These 6 elements are the common requirement of IHS customers 2015 IHS 9

10 Component Forecast Analytics Practices for Your Decision Support Market Overview Targeting Index Supplier Analysis Customer Analysis Global System View Sourcing Calendar Volume Planning Purchasing Strategy Regional System View Targeting Index Per OEM Top 10 Contracts by Volume Supplier Structure Regional System Technology View Targeting Index Per Supplier Top 10 Contracts by $ $ Value of Component Spend Top 10 Platforms Supplier Market Share Supplier vs. OEM Plants Platform Counts by OEM Supplier Customer Share % Technology Usage Platform Counts by Supplier Supplier Customer Share $ Supplier Capacity Report Top 10 Opportunities Supplier Power Supplier Market Share Supplier Power Leverage OEM Supplier Count Supplier Concentration Supplier Concentration Location / Logistics Technology Segmentation Over 30 Analysis figures our your business and the market 2015 IHS 10

11 Opportunity Targeting Identify Top Value Global OEM Platforms Top 10 Platforms Platform Count Your business opportunity will be in the platforms out of souring calendar 2015 IHS 11

12 Opportunity Targeting Sourcing Calendar per OEM You can anticipate the arrival of new RFQs. The Sourcing Calendar allows pre-select of which programs to pursue or ignore IHS 12

13 Competitor Analysis Competitor Book of Business by Platform Count HVAC Module Power Steering System Business opportunity will be in the platforms which suppliers are not aligned. Targeting the platforms which you will win the business from your competitors IHS 13

14 Competitor Analysis Sourcing Calendar per Supplier You will know your competitors all programs that they currently supply to the OEMs and annualized volume across the forecast horizon 2015 IHS 14

15 Competitor Analysis Supply Power Assessment : Market Share and Business with OEMs A/C Compressor Supply Power Assessment IHS Automotive Conference Spring 2015 You can analyze your market position and business size with OEMs which are comparable with your competitors 2015 IHS 15

16 Competitor Analysis Supply Power Assessment : Inter-Reliance Between Supplier and OEMs Denso A/C Compressor Business Sanden A/C Compressor Business The Inter-Reliance Index provides Supplier Power Leverage to the customers 2015 IHS 16

17 Logistics Analysis Large Components Likely be Produced within the Vehicle Production Region North America Europe China Japan India South America ASEAN 2015 IHS 17

18 Logistics Analysis Medium to Small Components Come Across the Region North America Europe China Japan India South America ASEAN 2015 IHS 18

19 Location Analysis Supplier Plants vs. OEM Plants Customer Analysis : General Motors Supplier Analysis : Johnson Controls You will understand the advantage or disadvantage of your logistics. IHS has capability of risk assessment of your logistics IHS 19

20 Sustainability Evolution of New Technologies in Your Business Areas Adding Value Average Passenger Car Sales Price in Germany Source: Nissan Source: Mazda Source: Valeo You should know that your products are sustainable in the future or will be replaced by new technologies IHS 20

21 Summary Best practices in terms of understanding the business side of the Automaker-Tier1 supplier relationship and negotiating the best deal. Best practices encompass more than just an understanding of, and extracting value from, business and investment issues. Leading suppliers also understand the likely evolution of the technologies in the areas in which they play, and the value of all facets of those technologies to the vehicle maker as well as to the ultimate customer. In order to survive, Automotive suppliers need to firstly embrace the simple fact that more is now required to make correct decisions and compete for new business or defend an existing book of business. Transparency across several dimensions of customer and competitor strategy will allow for correct assessment of the strength of competitor response 2015 IHS 21

22 Thank you for your participation. Hiroshi Ataka Manager Japan Component Forecasts and Analysis IHS Automotive IHS Customer Care: Americas: IHS CARE ( ); Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) ; Asia and the Pacific Rim: ; No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS at Customer Care (see phone numbers and addresses above). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners.