Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity. Overview of the 2010 Base Revision

Transcription

1 Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity Overview of the 2010 Base Revision September 7, 2015 Research and Statistics Department, Minister s Secretariat, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)

2 Table of Contents 1. Purpose of Base Revision 1 2. Main Contents of Base Revision (1) Revision to Industry Classification 1 (2) Changes to Base Year and Weight Calculation Year 2 (3) Revision to Adopted Data 4 (4) Changes to Seasonal Adjustment Method 6 (5) Reedited Series 7 (6) Timing of Switchover to the New Base Index, and the Link to the Old Base Index 10 Annex Table 1 Comparison of Old and New Adopted Data and Deflator Lists 11 Annex Table 2 Detailed Comparison of Old and New Industry Categories (by sector) 23 Annex Table 3 Industry Classification System and Weights 28

3 Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity Overview of the 2010 Base Revision 1. Purpose of Base Revision The Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity show the changes in tertiary industry activity as compared to a base year, using an industry structure fixed in the base year (the Indices constitute a quantitative index calculated using the Laspeyres formula). If the base year remains unchanged for an extended period, because of the changes taking place in the industrial structure, the movement in the index will begin to deviate from the actual changes in production activity, so the base year for the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity is changed every five years, with the industry classification, weights (reflecting the industrial structure), adopted data and seasonal adjustment method etc. all being adjusted. With regard to the adjustment of the base year for the Indices, the Statistical Base Relating to Index Baseline Periods (March 2010 version) formulated pursuant to the Statistics Act stipulate that the baseline period for indices shall be changed once every five years, changing the base year to a year (in the Western calendar) that ends in the numeral 0 or Main Contents of Base Revision (1) Revision to Industry Classification The industry classification used in the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity has in the past been based on the Japan Standard Industrial Classification, although when analyzing the trends for the monthly publication of the Indices, some adjustment has been made in terms of division and combining of major industry categories, using an approach based on the establishment of a more appropriate industry classification. However, in order to ensure the ability to make comparisons with the 2005 base index, and with other statistics, the Indices have also been separately calculated using an industry classification based directly on the Japan Standard Industrial Classification (revised version published in October 2013), and this version of the Indices has been published as a reference series. Due to declining user demand, it was decided that the Indices of Government Services etc., which had previously been published at the same time as the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity, would not be compiled in the 2010 base index. It should be noted that, as the Indices of Government Services etc. was not included as a subindex in the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity in the 2005 base index, the discontinuation of the Indices of Government Services etc. does not affect the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity. The changes in the industry classification for the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity from the 2005 base index to the 2010 base index are shown in Tables 1 and 2; a detailed comparison by major industry category is given in Annex Table 2. 1

4 (2) Changes to Base Year and Weight Calculation Year The index base year and weight calculation year have both been changed from 2005 to Weight calculation continues to make use of valueadded data from the Industry InputOutput Tables (Finalized Version) published by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, as before. However, as the new target year for the Industry InputOutput Tables is 2011, in order to ensure consistency with the 2010 base year for the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity, the rates of change etc. shown in the Updated Industry InputOutput Tables for the years 2010 and 2011 (compiled by METI) were used to estimate valueadded data for The weights used for each major industry category are shown in Table 3; detailed weight information for the lowestlevel series is shown in Annex Table 3. Table 1 Correspondence of Old and New Industry Classification (by major industry category) Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity Tertiary Industry Tertiary Industry Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water Information and Communications Information and Communications Transport and Postal Activities Transport and Postal Activities Wholesale Trade Wholesale and Retail Trade Finance and Insurance Finance and Insurance Goods Rental and Leasing (include Automobile Rental and Leasing) Real Estate and Goods Rental and Leasing Businessrelated Services Scientific Research, Professional and Technical Services Retail Trade Accommodations, Eating and Drinking Services Real Estate Livingrelated and Personal Services and Amusement Services Learning Support Medical, Health Care and Welfare Medical, Health Care and Welfare Living and Amusementrelated Services Compound Services Miscellaneous Services (except Government Services etc.) Indices of Government Services, etc. (Discontinued) Government Services 2

5 Table 2 Revision of Major Industry Categories Content of Revision Grounds for Revision Split Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Wholesale and Retail Trade Wholesale trade is oriented towards business enterprises, whereas retail trade is oriented towards individual consumers. It is possible that, for example, the wholesale trade index could be falling while the retail trade index is rising, which could create a situation in which the two opposing movements cancel each other out at the level of "Wholesale and Retail Trade." It was therefore decided to split "Wholesale and Retail Trade" into "Wholesale Trade" and "Retail Trade." Split Goods Rental and Leasing (include Automobile Rental and Leasing) Real Estate Real Estate and Goods Rental and Leasing It is possible that, for example, the real estate index could be rising while the goods rental and leasing (including automobile rental and leasing) index is falling, which could create a situation in which the two opposing movements cancel each other out at the level of "Real Estate and Goods Rental and Leasing." It was therefore decided to split "Real Estate and Goods Rental and Leasing" into "Real Estate" and "Goods Rental and Leasing (including automobile rental and leasing)." Combined Combined Businessrelated Services Living and Amusementrelated Services Scientific Research, Professional and Technical Services Compound Services Miscellaneous Services (except Government Services etc.) (partial) Accommodations, Eating and Drinking Services Livingrelated and Personal Services and Amusement Services Learning Support Miscellaneous Services (except Government Services etc.) (partial) As the "Compound Services" industry had a very small weighting within the overall industry classification, consideration was given to combining it with other industries; it was decided to combine it with the other industries listed here as all of them share the common feature of being businessrelated. As the "Leaning Support" industry has a very small weighting within the overall industry classification, consideration was given to combining it with other industries; it was decided to combine it with the other industries listed here as all of them share the common feature of being service industries that are oriented towards individual consumers. Table 3 Comparison of the Old and New Weights for Major Industry Categories Weight Weight Tertiary Industry Tertiary Industry Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water Information and Communications Information and Communications Transport and Postal Activities Transport and Postal Activities Wholesale Trade Wholesale and Retail Trade Finance and Insurance Finance and Insurance Goods Rental and Leasing (include Automobile Rental and Leasing) Real Estate and Goods Rental and Leasing Businessrelated Services Scientific Research, Professional and Technical Services Retail Trade Accommodations, Eating and Drinking Services Real Estate Livingrelated and Personal Services and Amusement Services Medical, Health Care and Welfare Learning Support Living and Amusementrelated Services Medical, Health Care and Welfare Compound Services 6.2 Miscellaneous Services (except Government Services etc.)

6 (For reference only) Weight Comparison Applying the 2010 Industry Classification to 2005 Weight Weight Tertiary Industry Tertiary Industry Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water Information and Communications Information and Communications Transport and Postal Activities Transport and Postal Activities Wholesale Trade Wholesale Trade portion of Wholesale and Retail Trade Finance and Insurance Finance and Insurance Goods Rental and Leasing (include Automobile Goods Rental and Leasing (include Automobile Rental and Leasing) portion of Real Estate and Rental and Leasing) Goods Rental and Leasing Subtotal Scientific Research, Professional and Technical Services Compound Services 6.2 Businessrelated Services Waste Disposal Business, Employment and Worker Dispatching Services and Other Businessrelated Services portion of Miscellaneous Services (except Government Services etc.) Retail Trade Retail Trade portion of Wholesale and Retail Trade Real Estate Real Estate portion of Real Estate and Goods Rental and Leasing Medical, Health Care and Welfare Medical, Health Care and Welfare Subtotal Accommodations, Eating and Drinking Services Livingrelated and Personal Services and Amusement Services Living and Amusementrelated Services Learning Support Automobile Maintenance Services portion of Miscellaneous Services (except Government Services etc.) (3) Revision to Adopted Data When switching over to the new base index, with regard to the primary data used in the compilation of the lowestlevel series(the adopted data ), revisions were made to the adopted data (including both series revision and series division) in order to better reflect the actual status of activity in individual industries. The main revisions made are shown in Table 4; for more details of the adopted data, see Annex Table 1. 4

7 Table 4 Main Revisions of the Adopted Data 1Items where the data series used have been changed Data Series Adopted Regional and LongDistance Telecommunications, except Wire Broadcast Telephones Number of fixedline data and voice communications subscriber contracts "Official Announcement of Quarterly Data on the Number of Telecommunications Service Subscriptions and Market Share" (MIC) Estimated sales calculated using the number of subscribers, average monthly earnings per subscription (based on IR materials published by leading companies), etc. Grounds for Revision Internet Service Provider Number of fixedline broadband subscriber contracts "Official Announcement of Quarterly Data on the Number of Telecommunications Service Subscriptions and Market Share" (MIC) Estimated number of households with ISP contracts, calculated from the Survey of Household Economy, the total number of households in Japan as estimated by the MIC, etc. This change was made because it had gradually become more difficult to obtain information used under the 2005 index criteria, such as the number of subscribers of leading telecommunications firms, the average earnings per subscription, etc. Mobile Telecommunications Number of mobile communications subscriber contracts "Official Announcement of Quarterly Data on the Number of Telecommunications Service Subscriptions and Market Share" (MIC) Estimated sales calculated using the number of subscribers, average monthly earnings per subscription (based on IR materials published by leading companies), etc. Automobile Lease Sales of automobile leasing "Survey of Selected Service Industries" (METI) Billing of automobile leases (Japan Leasing Association) Automobile Rental for Corporations Automobile Rental for Individuals Sales of automobile leasing (for corporations) "Survey of Selected Service Industries" (METI) Sales of automobile leasing (for individuals) "Survey of Selected Service Industries" (METI) Number of automobile rentals (Kotsu Mainichi Shimbunsha) This change was made because, with the accumulation of statistical data relating to trends in selected service industries, it has become possible to obtain the timeseries data required for index calculation. Japanese Style Hotels Hotels, except Japanese Style Hotels Number of stays in Japanesestyle hotels "Statistical Survey on Overnight Travel" (Japan Tourism Agency) Total number of stays in hotels "Statistical Survey on Overnight Travel" (Japan Tourism Agency) Number of rooms used in Japanese style hotels, estimated using the Japanese style hotel occupancy rate (Japan Tourist Hotel Association), etc. Number of guest rooms occupied at hotels, estimated using the business hotel occupancy rate (Japan City Hotel Association), etc. This change was made because, with the move towards publishing hotel stay statistics more promptly and on a monthly basis, the data needed for monthly index calculation for the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity was now available. 2 Items where the data series used have been more finely subdivided (i.e. where a given industry has been split into two or more industries in the industry classification) Grounds for Alteration Game Software Services Package Software Services (except Game Software Services) Portal Site Management Services Digital Contents Delivery Services Other Services Incidental to Internet Internet Advertising Other Advertising Automobile Rental for Corporations Automobile Rental for Individuals Sales Agents of Houses (Capital Region) Sales Agents of Houses (Kinki Region) Sales Agents of Condominiums (Capital Region) Sales Agents of Condominiums (Kinki Region) Land Subdividers and Developers (Capital Region) Land Subdividers and Developers (Kinki Region) Fast Food Shops Food Take Out and Delivery Services Package Software Services Services Incidental to Internet Other Advertising Automobile Rental Sales Agents of Houses Sales Agents of Condominiums Land Subdividers and Developers Fast Food Shops and Food Take Out and Delivery Services A finer subdivision was implemented in order to make the data usable for a wider variety of analytical purposes. For example, game software services (which have little connection with corporate investment in IT) were split off from package software services in order to make it possible to develop a more accurate picture of changes in corporate investment in IT services. 3 Data series the use of which has been discontinued (i.e. where a given industry category has been discontinued) Grounds for Revision Theatres and Performance Halls Musical Performance Troupes Cultural Centers These data series were discontinued because the surveys on which the series data used under the 2005 index criteria were no longer being conducted, and no suitable alternative source of data could be obtained. 5

8 (4) Changes of Seasonal Adjustment Method The seasonal adjustment method used is the ARIMA model with the seasonal model options (using the X12ARIMA program developed by the U.S. Census Bureau). The changes made, as compared to the 2005 base index, are as follows: Selection of optimal specifications (including whether or not outlier detection is performed) for each individual series. Revision to the direct adjustment method used in the past with an indirect adjustment method when compiling the seasonallyadjusted Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity. It should be noted that the adoption of the indirect adjustment method applies only to the seasonallyadjusted Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity as a whole; the major industry category indices continue to be compiled using a direct adjustment method. It should also be noted that seasonally adjusted Indices of All Industry Activity calculated using the direct adjustment method have also been published (as a reference series), in order to facilitate comparison with index data prepared according to the 2005 base index and with other statistics. In regard to above, the selection of optimal spec had already been performed for major industry categories and intermediate industry categories according to the 2005 base index, and from 2008 onwards seasonal adjustment was performed with the inclusion of outlier detection. With respect to the lowestlevel series, because of operational constraints, selection of specifications and seasonal adjustment were performed by grouping several lowestlevel series together (without performing outlier detection). However, as it has been found that events such as the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake of 2011 and the recent increase in the Consumption Tax rate have led to major changes at the level of the lowestlevel series, the 2010 base index incorporate more appropriate selection of optimal specification, including outlier detection at the level of individual lowestlevel series. With regard to above, whereas in the past the seasonallyadjusted Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity have been calculated using a direct adjustment method that involved performing seasonal adjustment on the index for the Tertiary Industry sector as a whole, which had been obtained by weightaveraging the original index for each lowestlevel series, this has now been changed to an indirect adjustment method that involves obtaining the index for the Tertiary Industry sector as a whole by weightaveraging the seasonallyadjusted indices for each of the 11 major industry categories. When verification was performed at the time of adjustment, comparing the results obtained with the direct adjustment method and the indirect adjustment method, no significant disparity was seen between the results obtained with the two methods; however, as the disparity between the two methods was more pronounced in relation to periods when more outlier values were detected (e.g. after the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake of 2011 and after the recent rise in the Consumption Tax rate), it was decided to make the indices calculated using the indirect adjustment method the main focus of the indices published according to the 2010 base index. 6

9 Table 5 Major Specifications ARIMA Model Tradingday/Leap year Public Holiday Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water (1 1 0) (2 1 0) td1nolpyear lpyear Information and Communications (0 1 1) (0 1 0) Transport and Postal Activities (1 1 0) (0 1 2) td1nolpyear lpyear Wholesale Trade (2 1 0) (0 1 0) td1nolpyear Finance and Insurance (0 1 1) (0 1 1) td1nolpyear Goods Rental and Leasing (include Automobile Rental and Leasing) (2 1 0) (0 1 1) Businessrelated Services (0 1 1) (0 1 1) td1nolpyear lpyear Retail Trade (1 1 0) (0 1 1) td1coef Real Estate (0 1 1) (1 1 0) td1nolpyear Medical, Health Care and Welfare (1 1 0) (0 1 2) tdnolpyear lpyear Living and Amusementrelated Services (1 1 0) (0 1 1) td1nolpyear lpyear <Reference series>tertiary Industry (1 1 0) (0 1 0) td1nolpyear lpyear (5) Reedited Series In the past, besides the index data calculated using conventional industry classification, the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity have also been calculated as reedited Series compiled by combining categories based on lowestlevel series properties. Under the 2010 base index, these reedited series have been expanded with the aim of meeting the needs of a wider range of different types of analysis. Binomial Reedited Series: The binomial reedited Series is a series that uses a twoway division based on series properties, using large agglomerations such as the tertiary industry sector as a whole and broadranging business services. Under the 2005 base index, separate series were established within the tertiary industry sector for Broadranging Personal Services and Broadranging Business Services. To these have now been added several additional series: Capital Input Type Services versus Labor Input Type Services, and Manufacturingdependent Business Services versus Nonmanufacturingdependent Business Services, etc. Propertyextraction type Reedited Series: The propertyextraction type reedited Series is based on the extraction from among the tertiary industry sector lowestlevel series of those series that share common properties. The 2005 base index already provided for the compilation of a propertyextraction type reedited series for Tourism Industry ; to this has now been added additional propertyextraction type reedited series for Sportsrelated Industry, Food and Beveragerelated Industry, Contentsrelated Industry and Elderly Households Peculiar Services, etc. For more details, see Table 6. 7

10 Table 6 Reedited Series 1 Binomial Reedited Series Tertiary Industry Weight Broadranging Personal Services Broadranging Business Services Broadranging Personal Services Broadranging Essential Personal Services Broadranging Nonessential Personal Services Tertiary Industry Capital Input Type Services Labor Input Type Services Explanation The component series of the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity have been divided into those industries which are oriented mainly towards individuals and those which are oriented mainly towards business enterprises. More specifically, those industries where the share of output accounted for by household expenditure (on the basis of the output value given in the Interindustry InputOutput Tables) was relatively high were grouped under "Broadranging Personal Services," while all other industries were grouped under "Broadranging Business Services." The "Broadranging Personal Services" category referred to above was further subdivided into "Broadranging Essential Personal Services" that are essential for daily life, and the more optional "Broadranging Nonessential Personal Services." The component series of the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity have been divided into "Capital Input Type Services" which rely more on capital equipment than on human labor, and "Labor Input Type Services" which rely more on human labor than on capital equipment. More specifically, those industries where comparison of depreciation of fixed assets and employee compensation (as shown in the Interindustry InputOutput Tables) showed that depreciation of fixed assets was significantly larger were grouped under "Capital Input Type Services" and those industries where employee compensation was significantly larger were grouped under "Labor Input Type Services." Broadranging Business Services Manufacturingdependent Business Services Nonmanufacturingdependent Business Services The component series of Broadranging Business Services have been divided, on basis of the degree of involvement in manufacturing and nonmanufacturing activities as shown in the Interindustry Input Output Tables, into "Manufacturingdependent Business Services" industries which are more heavily involved in manufacturing than in nonmanufacturing activities, and "Nonmanufacturingdependent Business Services" industries which are more heavily involved in nonmanufacturing activities than in manufacturing. Wholesale Trade Wholesale Trade for Industrial user Wholesale Trade for Retailers The component indices of "Wholesale Trade" have been divided into "Wholesale Trade for Industrial Users," which includes the wholesaling of construction materials, industrial machinery, etc., and "Wholesale Trade for Retailers," which includes the wholesaling of clothing, dry goods, foods and beverages etc. 8

11 2 Propertyextraction Type Reedited Series Weight Explanation Private Consumption Services Series showing trends in personal consumption related service supplied from the nonmanufacturing sector (e.g. retailing, entertainment, etc.) Private Capital Investment Services Tourism Industry Series showing trends in services related to privatesector capital investment supplied from the nonmanufacturing sector (e.g. software development, machinery wholesaling, etc.) Included series: Rail, bus, taxi, aircraft, ship and other passenger transport industries, highway facilities industry (expressway operation), operation of Japanesestyle hotels, operation of other hotels, travel agency operation, amusements park operation and theme park operation. Sportsrelated Industry Food and Beveragesrelated Industry Motor Vehiclesrelated Industry Fundingrelated Industry Constructionrelated Industry Contentrelated Industry Included series: Professional baseball, professional soccer, Sumo (wrestling) and other professional sports (professional sports companies), and operators of golf courses, fitness clubs and other sports facilities. Included series: Department stores and other general retailers (food and beverage sales only), food and beverage retailers, Japanesestyle restaurants, Westernstyle restaurants, fastfood outlets and other food and beverage related service industries. Included series: Highway facilities industry (expressway operation), automobile rental, automobile retailing, fuel retailing, parking facility operation, and automobile repair. Included series: Intermediary services, money lending business, consumer credit business (credit card operation), and leasing. Included series: Construction materials wholesaling, civil engineering and construction services, sales agents of buildings and houses, and land subdividers and developers. Included series: Game software, content delivery series, film, video, TV and radio program and record production, newspaper operation, publishing, music and video rental, cinema operation, amusement park operation, theme park operation, and pachinko parlor operation. Elderly Households Peculiar Services Created by extracting those series where the share of total expenditure accounted for by elderly households is high relative to the share accounted for by nonelderly households (with a specialization coefficient of 1.1 or higher), such as hospital and care services, rail, bus, taxi and other passenger transport services, domestic and foreign travel, fitness clubs, etc. Global Shipment Indexlinked Services Advertising and Portal Site Management Services Internet Advertising and Portal Site Management Services Tertiary Industry (except XXX) Information Services (except Game Software Services) Computer Programming and Other Software Services (ex. Game Software Services) Created by extracting those series which show a high level of linkage with the Global Shipment Index compiled by the Economic Analysis Office (METI). Included series: Advertising industry and portal site management services industry. Included series: Internet advertising, and portal site management services. Set by excluding a given major industry category from the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity (a particular major industry category will be inserted in place of XXX). Set by excluding game software (which has little connection with corporate investment in IT) from information services. Set by excluding game software (which has little connection with corporate investment in IT) from software, one of the constituent indices of information services. (Note) Details of the lowestlevel series included in each revised series are given in: 9

12 (6) Timing of Switchover to the New Base Index, and the Link to the Old Base Index The switchover to the 2010 base index will take place starting with the publication of the index data for July Timeseries data will be compiled for the period from January 2008 onwards. With regard to those series for which linkage can be maintained to the 2005 base index, this linkage will be implemented over the period January March 2008, with the compilation of historic indices (connected indices). For the tertiary industry sector as a whole, a historic index series will be compiled going back to The linking coefficient calculation formula used in order to link to the 2005 base index is as follows: Linking coefficient = Average value of seasonally adjusted index values for January March 2008 according in the 2010 base index Average value of seasonally adjusted index values for January March 2008 according in the 2005 base index 10

13 Annex Table 1 Comparison of Old and New Adopted Data and Deflator Lists Tertiary Industry Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply and Water Manufacture of Gas Heat Supply Production, Transmission and Distribution of Electricity Water Supply and Sewage Information and Communications Communications Fixed Telecommunications Regional and LongDistance Telecommunications, except Wire Broadcast Telephones Internet Service Provider Mobile Telecommunications Adopted Data Deflator Adopted Data Deflator Amount of electric energy generated and received "Preliminary Report on Electric Energy Generated and Received" (Federation of Electric Power Companies) Amount of gas production nationwide (including purchases) "Monthly Gas Business Statistics" (Agency for Natural Resources and Energy) Amount of distributed heat "Materials Published by the Japan Heat Supply Business Association" (Japan Heat Supply Business Association) Amount of distributed water Selected large cities: Sapporo City, Sendai City, Tokyo, Nagoya City, Osaka City, Hiroshima City, Fukuoka City Number of fixedline data and voice communications subscriber contracts "Official Announcement of Quarterly Data on the Number of Telecommunications Service Subscriptions and Market Share" (MIC) Number of fixedline broadband subscriber contracts "Official Announcement of Quarterly Data on the Number of Telecommunications Service Subscriptions and Market Share" (MIC) Number of mobile communications subscriber contracts "Official Announcement of Quarterly Data on the Number of Telecommunications Service Subscriptions and Market Share" (MIC) Broadcasting Number of NHK reception contracts (Japan Public Broadcasting Broadcasting Corporation) Sales of privatesector broadcasting and cable television businesses PrivateSector Broadcasting "Communications and Broadcasting Usage Trend Survey" (MIC) Information Services Computer Programming and Other Software Services Custom Software Services Package Software Services Game Software Services Package Software Services (except Game Software Services) Data Processing and Information Services System Management on Commission, etc. Other Data Processing and Information Services Services Incidental to Internet Portal Site Management Services Digital Contents Delivery Services Other Services Incidental to Internet Sales of information services (Custom software services) Industries" (METI) Sales of information services (Game software) Sales of information services (packaged software excluding game software) Sales of information services (System management on commission, etc.) Sales of information services (Others) Data processing such as calculation business Database services Various research Others Sales of services incidental to the Internet (Portal site management services) Sales of services incidental to the Internet (Digital contents delivery services) Estimated sales = (1) (2) (1) Number of accumulated subscribers (2) Average monthly earnings per subscription (Both (1) and (2) are based on the investor relations materials of major companies) Estimated number of households = (1) (2) (1) Survey of Household Economy (MIC) ("Personal Computers" in the "Percentage of Households Owning Equipment for Utilization of the Internet" in the quarterly survey of the "Ownership and Utilization of Equipment and Services Related to Information Technology (IT) (Total Households)" (2) Estimated number of households (Monthly estimate from the "Materials Based on the Basic Resident Registers or the Population Census" (MIC) Estimated sales = (1) (2) (1) Number of subscriptions by business (Cellular phones and PHSs) (Telecommunications Carriers Association) (2) Average monthly earnings per subscription (Cellular phones and PHSs) (Based on the investor relations materials of major companies) Sales of privatesector broadcasting and cable Private broadcasting television businesses "Communications Usage Trend Survey" (MIC) Software development (Custom software) Game software Packaged software Software development (Entrusted development software) Data Processing and Information Services (Weighted average indices of data processing services, information services and market research) Services incidental to the Internet Services incidental to the Internet Sales of services incidental to the Internet (Other services incidental to the Internet) Services incidental to the Internet Sales of information services (Packaged software services) Sales of Internetrelated Services Industry *For data prior to the 2009 adjustment: Internet connection fees (only communication fees) "Survey of Household Economy" (MIC) Fixedline telecommunications Cellular phone services and PHS services Software development (Packaged software) Telephone communication fees 11

14 Adopted Data Deflator Adopted Data Deflator Video Picture, Sound Information, Character Information Production & Distribution Video Picture Information Production and Distribution Sales of video software Video Production and Distribution "Preliminary Video Software Sales" (Japan Video Software Association) Until December 2014: Movie theatre admission charge revenue Motion Picture Production and Distribution From January 2015 onwards: Box office revenue for major movie theatres "Nikkan Kogyo Tsushin" (Kogyo Tsushinsha) Sales of advertising businesses (Television) Television Program Production and Distribution Sound Information Production Recording and Disk Production Radio Program Production Newspaper Publishers Publishers, except Newspapers Publishers of Weekly Magazines Publishers of Monthly Magazines Publishers of Books Transport and Postal Activities Transport Railway Transport Railway Passenger Transport Railway Passenger Transport (Japan Railway) Railway Passenger Transport (except Japan Railway) Railway Freight Transport Road Passenger Transport Bus Taxi Road Freight Transport Common Motor Trucking Special Groupcargo Motor Trucking Water Transport Water Passenger Transport Water Freight Transport Oceangoing Freight Transport Coastwise Freight Transport Recording production "Production Results of Recording" (Recording Industry Association of Japan) Sales of advertising businesses (Radio) Newspaper circulations (Japan Audit Bureau of Circulations) Circulation of weekly magazines (Media Research Center, The All Japan Magazine and Book Publisher's and Editor's Association) Circulation of monthly magazines (Media Research Center, The All Japan Magazine and Book Publisher's and Editor's Association) Circulation of books (Media Research Center, The All Japan Magazine and Book Publisher's and Editor's Association) Number of passengers of JR Transportation Economics" and "Monthly Statistical Report on Railway Transport" (MLIT) Number of private railway passengers Transportation Economics" and "Monthly Statistical Report on Railway Transport" (MLIT) Volume of freight handled by JR Transportation Economics" and "Monthly Statistical Report on Railway Transport" (MLIT) Number of bus passengers (Tokyo) Transportation Economics" (MLIT) Number of taxi passengers (Tokyo) Transportation Economics" (MLIT) Volume of truck freight handling (General and special consolidation) "Information on Truck Transport" (MLIT) (Note) Real value converted to a monthly basis by multiplying by the yearonyear weighted average increase (weight ratio of 1 to 4) of "special consolidated trucks" and "general trucks" in the materials mentioned above. Volume of courier freight handling Transportation Economics" and "Information on Truck Transport" (MLIT) Number of passengers of regular car ferries Transportation Economics" (MLIT) Tonnage of export and import freight (Total of freight loaded on (export) and unloaded from (import) Japanese vessels and foreign vessels) "Entrance of Vessels by Nationality" (Ministry of Finance) Volume of coastwise freight handling (Freight vessels and transport vessels) Transportation Economics" and "Monthly Statistical Report on Coastwise Vessel Transport" (MLIT) Weighted average of video software sales and video software rental Movie admission charges Television commercials Compact discs Radio commercials Video software rental 12

15 Air Transport Air Passenger Transport International Air Passenger Transport Domestic Air Passenger Transport Air Freight Transport International Air Freight Transport Domestic Air Freight Transport Warehousing Ordinary Warehousing Refrigerated Warehousing Services Incidental to Transport Port Transport Packing and Crating Transport Facilities Services Airports and Air Fields Heliports Postal Activities, including Mail Delivery Wholesale Trade Transport Facilities Services for Road Transport Wholesale Trade, General Merchandise Wholesale Trade (Textile and Apparel) Textile Products (except Apparel, Apparel Accessories and Notions) Apparel, Apparel Accessories and Notions Adopted Data Deflator Adopted Data Deflator Number of air passengers (International) Transportation Economics" and "Provisional Statistical Report on Air Transport" (MLIT) Number of air passengers (Domestic) Transportation Economics" and "Provisional Statistical Report on Air Transport" (MLIT) Volume of air freight handling (International) Transportation Economics" and "Provisional Statistical Report on Air Transport" (MLIT) Volume of air freight handling (Domestic) Transportation Economics" and "Provisional Statistical Report on Air Transport" (MLIT) Ordinary warehousing monthly warehousing entry volume, estimated dispatch volume and ordinary warehousing monthend storage balance Transportation Economics" and "Provisional Statistics on Ordinary Warehousing (21 Leading Firms)" (MLIT) Refrigerated warehousing monthly warehousing entry volume, dispatch volume and monthend storage balance "Status of Utilized Storage of Bailed Articles in 12 Major Cities" (Japan Association of Refrigerated Warehouses) Estimated volume of transportation = (1) + (2) (1) Number of net tonnage of Japanese vessels and foreign vessels "Entrance of Vessels by Nationality" (Ministry of Finance) (2) Volume of coastwise freight handling (Freight vessels and transport vessels) Transportation Economics" and "Monthly Statistical Report on Coastwise Vessel Transport" (MLIT) Substituted by original indices of freight transport. Number of vehicles using tollways (Traffic volume of the former Public Highway Corporations) Estimated landing fees and facility usage fees (Data published by the former Class 1 airports) (1) + (2) + (3) (weighted average index) (1) Domestic mail (Letter post items and New Year's cards) (2) Domestic mail (Parcels) (3) International mail (Letter post items, parcels, and EMS) (Data published by Japan Post) Sales of wholesale trade, general merchandise Commerce" (METI) Wholesale sales of textile products Wholesale sales of apparel, apparel accessories and notions Estimated landing fees and facility usage fees (1) Data published by the former Class 1 airports (2) Financial information (IR information) for the former Class 1 airports Indices of the Wholesale Trade by industry are weightaveraged based on the transaction values calculated from the weights of the corresponding items of the "Domestic goods/export/import " in the "2010 Base Corporate Goods (CGPI), Classification and Weights of Basic Grouping Index" (Bank of Japan) (except Wholesale Trade). Weighted average efficiencies of the indices by industry below: "Food and Beverages," "Chemicals and Related Products," "Minerals and Metals," "General Machinery and Equipment," "Motor Vehicles," "Electrical Machinery and Equipment," "Industrial Machinery and Equipment." Note: Weights used for the weighted average are based on the shares held by individual product categories in data compiled by leading trading companies (estimated based on investor relations materials). values of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (1) "Raw yarn," and "Woven & knitted fabrics" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Textiles" of the Export (3) "Raw yarn," and "Woven fabrics" of the Import values of the following items: (1) + (2) (1) "Apparel," "Other textile products," and "Leather & related products" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Apparel" and "Other textile products" of the Import Weighted average efficiencies of the indices by industry below: "Agricultural, Animal and Poultry Farm and Aquatic Products," "Food and Beverages," "Chemicals and Related Products," "Minerals and Metals," "General Machinery and Equipment," "Motor Vehicles," "Electrical Machinery and Equipment," "Miscellaneous Machinery and Equipment," and "Other" Note: Weights used for the weighted average are based on the counting of sales by items of General Merchandise in the "Monthly Report on the Current Survey of Commerce 2007" by Wholesale Trade industry. values of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (1) "Raw & semiprocessed fibers for spun yarn," "Raw yarn," and "Woven & knitted fabrics" of the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (2) "Textiles" of the Export (3) "Natural fiber materials," "Raw yarn," and "Woven fabrics" of the Import 13

16 Wholesale Trade (Food and Beverages) Food and Beverages Wholesale Trade (Building Materials, Minerals and Metals, etc.) Building Materials Chemicals and Related Products Minerals and Metals Wholesale Trade (Machinery and Equipment) Industry Machinery and Equipment Motor Vehicles Agricultural, Animal and Poultry Farm and Aquatic Products Electrical Machinery and Equipment Miscellaneous Machinery and Equipment Adopted Data Deflator Adopted Data Deflator Sales of Agricultural, Animal and Poultry Farm and Aquatic Products Wholesale sales of food and beverages Sales of building materials Wholesale sales of chemicals and related products Wholesale sales of minerals and metals Sales of industrial machinery and equipment Sales of Motor Vehicles Sales of Electrical Machinery and Equipment Sales of Miscellaneous Machinery and Equipment values of the following items: (1) (2) + (3) (1) "Agriculture, forestry & fishery products" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Forestry products" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (3) "Edible agriculture, livestock & fishery products" of the Import values of the following items: (1) (2) + (3) (1) "Foods, beverages, tobacco and animal feed" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Tobacco products" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (3) "Primary processed foodstuffs," Prepared & preserved foodstuffs," and "Beverages" of the Import values of the following items: (1) + (2) (1) "Lumber & wood products," "Ceramic, stone & clay products," and "Metal products for buildings" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Wood, lumber & related products" of the Import values of the following items: (1)(2)+(3)+(4)(5) (1) "Chemicals & related products" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Pharmaceutical products," "Soap & synthetic detergents," "Makeup products, skin care products, etc.," and "Chemical fertilizers" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (3) "Chemicals & related products" of the Export (4) "Chemicals & related products" of the Import (5) "Pharmaceutical products" and "Chemical fertilizers" of the Import Weighted average efficiencies of price indices of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (4) (1) "Petroleum & coal products," "Mineral fuels," Mineral materials for ceramics," "Iron & steel," "Springs & wire products," "Other metal products," "Ores," "Nonferrous metal rolled and extruded products," "and "Nonferrous metal castings, diecastings and forgings" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Iron & steel" and "Nonferrous metals" of the Export (3) "Petroleum, coal and natural gas," "Metal materials," "Iron & steel" and "Nonferrous metals" of the Import (4) "Metal waste" of the Import values of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (1) "Generalpurpose machinery," "Production machinery" and "Service and entertainment machinery" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Production machinery" and "Generalpurpose machinery" of the Export (3) "Generalpurpose machinery" and "Office machinery" of the Import values of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (1) "Motor vehicles" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Motor vehicles" of the Export (3) "Motor vehicles" of the Import values of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (1) "Electrical machinery & equipment," "Electric wires & cables," "Information & communications equipment," and "Electronic components & devices" of the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (2) "Electric & electronic products" of the Export (3) "Electric & electronic products" of the Import values of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (1) "Other transportation equipment," "Measuring instruments," "Medical devices" and "Optical instruments and lenses" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Other transportation equipment" and "Business machinery" of the Export (3) "Other transportation equipment" and "Business machinery" of the Import 14 values of the following items: (1) (2) + (3) (1) "Processed foodstuffs" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Tobacco products" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (3) "Primary processed foodstuffs," Prepared & preserved foodstuffs," and "Beverages" of the Import values of the following items: (1)(2)+(3)+(4)(5) (1) "Chemicals & related products" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Pharmaceutical products," "Soap & synthetic detergents," "Makeup products, skin care products, etc.," and "Chemical fertilizers" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (3) "Chemicals & related products" of the Export (4) "Chemicals & related products" of the Import (5) "Pharmaceutical products" and "Chemical fertilizers" of the Import Weighted average of the following industryspecific deflators (Note 1): "Chemical products," "Mineral and metal materials" (Note 2), "General machinery," "Automobiles," "Other" Note 1: The weights used for the weightaveraging are those obtained by adding the industryspecific values for wholesale sales of items included in the mineral and metals wholesaling section of the 2007 Current Survey of Commerce. Note 2: The weight used for "mineral and metal materials" is obtained using the weighted average efficiencies of price indices of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (4) (1) "Petroleum & coal products," "Mineral fuels," Mineral materials for ceramics," "Iron & steel," "Springs & wire products," "Other metal products," "Ores," "Nonferrous metal rolled and extruded products," "and "Nonferrous metal castings, diecastings and forgings" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Iron & steel" and "Nonferrous metals" of the Export (3) "Petroleum, coal and natural gas," "Metal materials," "Iron & steel" and "Nonferrous metals" of the Import (4) "Metal waste" of the Import values of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (1) "General machinery & equipment" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "General machinery & equipment" of the Export (3) "General machinery & equipment" of the Import values of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (1) "Other transportation equipment" and "Precision instruments" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Other transportation equipment" and "Precision instruments" of the Export (3) "Other transportation equipment" and "Precision instruments" of the Import

17 Wholesale Trade (Drugs and Toiletries) Other Wholesales Trade Finance and Insurance Wholesale Trade (Furniture, Fixture and House Furnishings) Adopted Data Deflator Adopted Data Deflator values of the following items: (1) (2) + (3) (1) "Metal products for buildings," "Furniture & fixtures," "Plastic containers for drinks," and Sales of Wholesale Trade (Furniture, Fixture and "Plastic containers for items other than drinks" of House Furnishings) the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Aluminum window sash" and "Metal shutters" of the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (3) "Furniture" of the Import Sales of Wholesale Trade (Drugs and Toiletries) Sales of Other Wholesales Trade Financial Services Banking and Financial Institutions for Cooperative Organizations M3 of the Average Amounts Outstanding of Money Stock Intermediary Services "Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly" (Bank of Japan) Settlement Services Number of checks and bills cleared Checks and Bills Clearing "Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly" (Bank of Japan) Settlement at Bank of Japan Accounts Settlement at Bank of Japan Accounts "Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly" (Bank of Japan) Number of transactions in the domestic fund transfer system (Zengin system) Domestic Fund Transfer System (Zengin System "Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly" (Bank of Japan) Number of transactions in the foreign exchange yen clearing system Foreign Exchange Yen Clearing System "Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly" (Bank of Japan) Money Lending Business and Credit Card Business Number of outstanding accounts at monthend Money Lending Business "Monthly Survey" (Japan Financial Services Association) Credit Card Businesses Sales Credit Business Consumer Credit Business "Sales credit business" in amount handled by credit card services "Consumer credit business" in the amount handled by credit card services Financial Products Transaction and Futures Commodity Transaction Dealers Handling of Public Offering Securities Brokers and Dealers Insurance Institutions, Including Insurance Agents, Brokers and Services Life Insurance Institutions NonLife Insurance Institutions "Issuing of Bonds" (Adopting the total data of the individual series of government bonds, etc.) "Statistics" section on the website of the Japan Securities Dealers Association (Japan Securities Dealers Association) "Trading values of listed stocks" on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange "The Monthly Statistical Report" (Tokyo Stock Exchange Group) Premium income of life insurance companies (based on materials published by The Life Insurance Association of Japan) Direct net premium of nonlife insurance companies (including savingstype insurance) (Materials published by The General Insurance Association of Japan) values of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (1) "Pharmaceutical products," "Makeup products, skin care products, etc.," and "Soap & synthetic detergents" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Pharmaceutical products" of the Export (3) "Pharmaceutical components and agents" of the Import values of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (1) "Feedstuffs," "Pulp, paper & related products," "Printed matter & engravings," "Rubber products," "Tobacco products," "Musical instruments and recreational & sporting goods," and "Other manufactured goods" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Other manufactured goods" of the Export (3) "Other manufactured goods" of the Import General, excluding food (excluding alcoholic beverages) and energy Consumer (MIC) Weighted average indices of transfer, collection, account transfer, and firm banking Weighted average indices of domestic money transmission and receipts, and account services Weighted average indices of transfer, collection, account transfer, and firm banking Weighted average indices of domestic money transmission and receipts, and account services Underwriting services (Weighted average indices of securities brokerage services, underwriting services, securities selling services, securities issuance, transfer and related services) Underwriting services (Weighted average indices of securities brokerage services, underwriting services, securities selling services, securities issuance, transfer and related services) General, excluding food and energy Nonlife insurance premiums "Corporate Services " (Bank of Japan) values of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (1) "Pharmaceutical products," "Makeup products, skin care products, etc.," and "Soap & synthetic detergents" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Pharmaceutical products" of the Export (3) "Pharmaceutical products" of the Import values of the following items: (1) + (2) + (3) (1) "Feedstuffs & fertilizers," "Pulp, paper & related products," "Printed matter & engravings," "Rubber products," "Tobacco products," "Musical instruments and recreational & sporting goods," and "Other manufactured goods" of the Domestic Corporate Goods (2) "Other manufactured goods" of the Export (3) "Other manufactured goods" of the Import Premium income = (1) + (2) (Index weighted average efficiencies) (1) Premium income of life insurance companies General, excluding food (excluding alcoholic (based on materials published by The Life beverages) and energy Insurance Association of Japan) (2) Premium income of Japan Post Insurance (based on materials published by Japan Post Insurance) 15