Market trends April 2016

Transcription

1 Avocado Market Trends and Prices April 2016 Market trends April 2016 Despite increasing volumes from the summer sources, the market is still undersupplied. Mexico is the only winter supplier with significant volumes on the market (mostly composed of air-freighted imports) which are nevertheless strongly decreasing. The an season is over and the last Mediterranean volumes are being delivered from Israel and Spain whose seasons will extend for few more weeks only. Arrivals of hass avocado from the summer sources (Peru, South Africa and Kenya) have been developing but available volumes remain insufficient to fulfil the market needs: the supply from Peru is increasing faster than in previous years while arrivals from Kenya and South Africa are developing slowly and in limited volumes for now. Fruits have been missing on the market since after Easter when programs worked as expected and stocks had been almost cleared. The lack of fruits has been particularly noticeable and traders have been looking for extra fruits through imports by air freight and from other sources such as Colombia,, Morocco and also Mozambique. The possibilities to top-up the market needs remained nevertheless rare. The supply presented heterogeneous quality, with opposed maturity rate between the winter and the summer sources (advanced maturity rate for Mexico and early ripeness for Kenya and Peru); the rate of maturity of the summer sources has nevertheless improved in April, particularly in the case of Peru but is not yet fully satisfactory. An unbalanced composition of sizes characterizes the supply: with few exceptions, sizes have been practically absent from the market while sizes 26 and also 28 have been largely available. The prevalence of small sizes has been noticeable for all summer origins including South Africa and is particularly remarkable in the case of Peru which used to present bigger fruits at this stage of the season. Prices have therefore tended in two different directions, increasing and reaching very high levels above the average for big and medium sizes (also for the fruits with quality issues) and decreasing to nearly low levels for small sizes. Due to the lack of fruits, prices have been similar for all origins with relatively small price range. In the green segment, volumes have been strongly increasing from South Africa and lead to lower prices which are nevertheless still above average for now; the mix of varieties has been diversifying, with pinkerton from Kenya, zutano and ettinger from Peru, ryan and pinkerton from South Africa. PRICES Hass avocado Week 16 (Euro/4 kg ctn) ISRAEL KENYA MEXICO PERU SOUTH AFRICA SPAIN F NL UK undetermi ned D OTHER ORIGINS PRICES Green avocado Week 16 Kenya Peru South Africa F ryan fue fue fue NL fue fue 14 fue fue, pin 14 ett pin zut UK fue

2 PRICES April Euro/4 kg ctn Variety Sizes Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 FRANCE (*) hass Israel hass Kenya hass ,00-11, ,00-11, Mexico hass Peru hass South Africa hass Spain hass Kenya fue Peru fue South Africa fue ryan Spain reed NETHERLAND hass Kenya hass Mexico hass Peru hass fue Israel pin reed ardit Kenya fue pin Peru fue ett zut South Africa fue pin U. KINGDOM hass undetermined hass Undetermined Israel hass undetermined fue undetermined Kenya fue undetermined Peru fue undetermined South Africa fue undetermined Spain fue undetermined

3 GERMANY hass 18 (20 ) Mexico (air) hass 18 (20 ) Peru hass 18 (20 ) (air) South Africa hass 18 (20 ) Market perspectives The arrivals from Mexico will continue to decrease until the end of the month and the global supply should reach significant levels in week 18 with heavy arrivals from Peru. During weeks volumes will increase from all origins but will remain in line with the absorption capacity of the market hopefully assisted by the expected improvement of the demand in spring. However, the unbalanced supply in terms of maturity and sizes does not play in favour of sales, prices and demand improvement. With increasing volumes, prices will be probably adjusted downwards in May but should remain high and satisfactory for medium grades, while could reach very low levels for small counts. After week 22 the supply will further intensify, particularly from Peru reaching levels never seen before for the source. The market might therefore become very heavy and prices could become unsatisfactory in June and risk collapsing for small sizes. The winter season is going to end and has been conditioned by the effects of the climate change (heat in the Mediterranean area) whose effects are impacting also on the summer season (hails in South Africa, El Nino in Peru, heavy rains in Kenya). Hails in South Africa might have created fewer problems than initially expected, even though some aspects still have to be evaluated especially as far as sizes development is concerned. The export forecasts for South Africa now stand at 12,8 million cartons ( tons), practically the same volumes of last year but it has to be considered that this is an on-year for South Africa and production volumes could have been much higher (around 15 million tons). Exports from Peru (which started very early this year) are already almost double in comparison to 2016 and will continue growing faster than in previous years (total exports should reach tons). The supply from Kenya, is reportedly +180% in comparison to same week of 2015 (but -12% in comparison to 2013/2014) and should be increasing particularly for green varieties. As in previous seasons, large volumes from Peru and South Africa could mean lower prices for Kenya in comparison to its competitors if the market will be balanced in terms of supply, unless ripening and sizes issues could play in favour of the origin. It is hoped that the measures implemented in Kenya at the sector level (e.g. the control of maturity rate on departure) will have effects not only on place but could effectively reflect on the market. Importers requirements are becoming increasingly stringent: GRASPs are being requested in some cases, which is leading buyers to convince producers to adapt or suppliers are changed. A continuous and meticulous work has to be put in place to gain the confidence of importers and penetrate markets: tests on ian avocado are, for example, being made in Europe directly with technicians of the supplying country to demonstrate how to reach the perfect ripening of the fruits. In the green segment, the supply from South Africa will continue to peak for 1-2 weeks before starting to decrease but the market will most probably remain under pressure as the supply will be increasing also from other sources.

4 w1 w2 w3 w4 w5 w6 w7 w8 w9 w10 w11 w12 w 13 w 14 w 15 w 16 Euro 4 kg ctn Euro 4 kg ctn Average market prices Hass ( ') w1 w2 w3 w4 w5 w6 w7 w8 w9 w10w11w12w 13w 14w 15w 16 Israel Mexico Spain Peru Kenya South Africa Average market prices Green varieties (12-14-(16)' Israel Spain Peru Kenya South Africa

5 Notes This report has been prepared as a service to exporters and industries in developing countries by the International Trade Centre (ITC) with the objective to provide indications on market prices and market trends to support producers, exporters, sector associations and other private or public organizations in their decisions and policies. Quotations are price indications that give a global view of the market; prices are average FOT wholesale market prices; if not otherwise stated prices are per 4 kg carton, products imported by sea/truck; all prices are in Euro. Exchange rates of 26/4/ EURO 1 USD United Kingdom 0,778 0,692 USD 1,134 1,000 Euro 1,000 0,889 General abbreviations ctn = carton org = organic prep = pre-packed ex-quai = ex-port of delivery rte = ready to eat air = imported by air fot = free on truck sdls = seedless sea = imported by sea gr = green tru = truck-lorry Product abbreviations ard = ardith fue = fuerte pin = pinkerton bac = bacon hass = hass reed = reed edr = edranol lula = lula ryan = ryan ett = ettinger nab = nabal trop = tropical fino = fino wur = wurtz zut = zutano mini= stoneless avocado / avocat cornichon / mini aguacate / cocktail The mention of specific product industries or certain commercial products and brand names does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ITC in preference to others of similar nature. We welcome new sources of information and news that subscribers and readers might have on products and markets covered by the report as well as inquiries and information requests. For these purposes or for other information about the report please contact marketinsider@intracen.org.