Asteroid Mining Logistics

Transcription

1 Asteroid Mining Logistics Scott Dorrington PhD Candidate University of New South Wales School of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering/ Australian Centre for Space Engineering Research

2 Basic Logistics Components 5. Delivery Depot/Customer Refuel for next trip Revenue +$R 4. Asteroid Earth Heliocentric transfer LD, AD, TOF, ΔV 3. Mining Ops Stay time Resource Mass 1. Launch To parking orbit or departure hyperbola Capital investment $C 0 2. Earth Asteroid Heliocentric transfer LD, AD, TOF, ΔV

3 Basic Logistics Components 5. Delivery Depot/Customer Refuel for next trip Revenue +$R 4. Asteroid Earth Heliocentric transfer LD, AD, TOF, ΔV 3. Mining Ops Stay time Resource Mass 1. Launch To parking orbit or departure hyperbola Capital investment $C 0 2. Earth Asteroid Heliocentric transfer LD, AD, TOF, ΔV

4 P1. System Design Q: How much mass can you extract in a single trip? Duration of stay time (from trajectories) Mining rate Design optimization problem & Mine optimization problem Parameterize mining rate using 4 components: 1. Physical & chemical properties of the asteroid 2. Design of spacecraft & mining equipment 3. Operations conducted on unit blocks of ore 4. Shape of the mine Trade space optimization e.g. min. Total mass Mine Parameters IAC D4.5.2 Mining Requirements for Asteroid Ore Extraction

5 P2. Supply Chain Network Q: How much of this mass can you deliver to customers? Spacecraft will use fuel to deliver the resources to customers Reusability extract fuel for next trip before selling Sellable mass Location routing problem Orbital supply chain network Location of orbital nodes (parking orbits, customers, depot) Routes between nodes (ΔV of transfers) Vehicles transport spacecraft, mining spacecraft Select location of orbital nodes, and route of spacecraft to maximize total sellable mass

6 Optimization problem: Candidate locations: Candidate routes: A location routing problem for the design of an asteroid mining supply chain network [Dorrington & Olsen, 2017] (under review, Acta Astronautica)

7 P3. Multi trip trajectory optimization Q: How much profit can you make from a specific asteroid? Total NPV over multiple trips LD (Ast Earth) NPV = $C 0 + Σ R(1+i) -t AD (Earth Ast) AD (Ast Earth) Flight Itinerary: LD (Earth Ast) Ast Earth Earth Ast Cash Flow Trip 0: (LD 0, AD 0 ) $C 0 Trip 1: (LD 1, AD 1 ) (LD 1, AD 1 ) +$R 1 Trip 2: (LD 2, AD 2 ) (LD 2, AD 2 ) +$R 2 Trip T: (LD T, AD T ) (LD T, AD T ) +$R T

8 Available Trajectories Lambert solver > Porkchop plots local optima Time Expanded Network combinations of trajectories constraints on stay time, wait time Shortest path problem find path that maximizes NPV NPV of each path non linear fn path enumeration using DFS adapt shortest path algorithms Use to rank asteroids based on profit, rather than single trip ΔV

9 P4. Prospecting Approach Q: What is the best prospecting approach? Flyby mission Sampling mission shape and mass measurements limited by instruments, trajectory Flyby mission Sampling mission (orbiter/lander) surface mapping from orbit sampling can confirm presence of resources * Image credit: ESA Each mission increases certainty of presence of ore, at the cost of extra capital cost Cost Risk analysis

10 Decision Tree Decisions send/don t send missions Outcomes ore found/no ore found probabilities of each occurring Consequences total cost of each approach Expectation value select prospecting approach that maximizes expected NPV p = probability of outcome q = 1 p = complement

11 Conclusion Formulate logistics problems to optimize the design of an asteroid mining industry Problems: Q1: How much mass can you extract in a single trip? Design optimization problem & Mine optimization problem Q2: How much of this mass can you delivered to customers? Location-routing problem Q3: How much profit can you make from a specific asteroid? Shortest path problem Q4: What is the best prospecting approach? Cost Risk analysis

12 Questions? Scott Dorrington PhD Candidate University of New South Wales School of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering/ Australian Centre for Space Engineering Research