Chandler Duncan. Economic Development Research Group, Inc. AMPO Conference, October 22, 2013

Transcription

1 Chandler Duncan Economic Development Research Group, Inc. AMPO Conference, October 22,

2 2 Long Range Planning Engaging the Private Sector Service Package Concept Programming (TIP) prioritization Benefit-Cost Ratio & Multi-Criteria Analysis

3 3 Addressing Public and Private Stakeholders Business Implications of Choices Mode-Neutral Answers Addressing MPO Committees Making Models Relevant Integrating Economic Impact to the TDM Stream New ways to use your traffic model

4 Source: PPACG/TREDIS 4

5 5 Value Wage Income Added (GRP) Business Jobs ($Million) ($Million) Output Construction 200 $28.1 $34.5 $62.3 Transportation 30 $31.3 $42.3 $77.3 Efficiency Total N/A $59.4 $76.8 $139.6 Source: RIDOT/TREDIS

6 6 BASIC ANALYSIS Cost/Benefit Analysis Construction Impact Transportation Efficiency Impact BROADER EFFECTS Productivity from Increased Accessibility and Reliability Net Effects of Funding and Finance Strategies Effects on Land Use and Business Attraction Potential

7 7 Travel Efficiency Construction Impacts Land Use Accessibility Gains Business Attraction

8 Typical Travel Models Can Show how a trade area is expanded by improved transportation performance. Example: Diminishing Accessiblity of Emory/CDC Site in Atlanta, GA 8

9 9 Employers Benefit from a Larger and More diverse labor pool Businesses benefit from a larger and more diverse pool of potential buyers and suppliers These factors enable businesses to be more productive This effect is separate from the effect of transportation savings, and actually relates to the firm s internal process.

10 $844 Investment to Reduce Congestion Improved Productivity yields GRP Growth in many sectors. This is in addition to travel time, reliability and vehicle operating cost savings Source: Portland Business Alliance, Port of Portland, Metro and ODOT/TREDIS 10

11 11 When do Performance Payoffs of Enhanced Funding Help more than Taxes & Fees Hurt? Who Benefits from Improved Performance? Tolls can help manage capacity and raise funding, but at what cost?

12 Impact Type Cumulative Earnings ($M) Cumulative Output ($M) Average Annual Employment Level Construction Spending $2,303 $5,724 1,532 Enhanced Market Access $3,043 $7,504 1,950 Transportation Efficiency/Operations $1,679 $4,234 1,279 Impact of Tolls -$2,211 -$5,580-1,578 Impact of Land Use $22,489 $66,100 14,614 Total Economic Impact $27,303 $77,983 17,796 Source: EDR Group/TREDIS Derived from KPDA Model

13 Societal Benefit of Traffic Impact Vehicle Operating Savings Business Time & Reliability Savings Personal Time & Reliability Savings Safety Savings Shipper/Logistics Savings Source: EDR Group/TREDIS (with Data from Portland Metro Model) 13

14 Toll Revenue Collected (In Millions) Societal Benefit of Traffic Impact Source: EDR Group/TREDIS (with Data from Portland Metro Model)

15 80.00 Toll Revenue Collected (In Millions) Societal Benefit of Traffic Impact Improvement Costs Imposed on Secondary Systems Total Societal Benefit (of Toll + Secondary Roadway Improvemetns) Source: EDR Group/TREDIS (with Data from Portland Metro Model) 15

16 Tax/Fee Collector Tax/Fee Description Totals Federal Government State and Local Government Motor Fuel Tax $0 Income Profits $5,453 Social Insurance Tax (FICA) $7799 Miscellaneous Fees & Taxes $892 Total Federal Government $14,144 Motor Fuel Tax $0 Motor Vehicle License Fees $240 Income/Profits $1847 Sales tax $2,853 Property Tax $2,034 Social Insurance Tax $10 Miscellaneous Fees & Taxes $1,162 Total State and Local Government $8,146 Grand Total for Federal, State and Local Government 16 $22,290

17 17 Amenity Value of Transportation Improvement Can Attract New Development or Channel Existing Development Can Complement other types of impact Source: Economic Impact Analysis of Downtown Green Line Vision Plan and Georgian Multi-Modal Passenger terminal Central Atlanta Progress/Atlanta Downtown Improvement District, 2012

18 18 Multi-Modal transportation and land-use corridor planning initiative Fastest Growing Region of Massachusetts Restoring Commuter Rail and Connecting to Boston Economic analysis showed: Enhanced viability of sites for business attraction Suggested land use strategy Disproportionate growth in higher paying industries

19 19 Sustainable Communities Strategy Scenarios Vary Land use and Transportation Mix Balance on Many Dimensions Modes Conservation & Growth Geographic Balance

20 20 City (MPO) Chicago, IL (CMAP) Fort Worth, TX (NCTCOG) MetroLinx (Toronto) Gulf Coast Rail District Atlanta, GA (ARC) Key Issues Multi-Modal Prioritization, Land- Use/Transportation, Global Competitiveness Infrastructure Investment and Fees Rail Transit Electrification, Workforce Mobility Impacts of Improved Freight Access & Reliability Business Attraction & Transportation Impacts of a Multi- Modal Transportation Center

21 21 FREE TOOLS (COST-BENEFIT) STEAM (FHWA) HERS-ST MBCA (TREDIS) FAF Benefits Estimation Tool StratBenCost/MicroBenCost PRIVATE & CONSULTING MODELS Off the Shelf Models TREDIS REMI TRANSIGHT LIFT (Inforum) Consulting Models SROI (HDR) PRISM (PB) HEAT (CS)

22 Chandler Duncan, AICP EDR Group 155 Federal St. Boston, MA (617) x