国土技術政策総合研究所資料. TECHNICAL NOTE of National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management. No. 495 January 2009

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1 ISSN 国総研資料第 495 号平成 21 年 1 月 国土技術政策総合研究所資料 TECHNICAL NOTE of National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management No. 495 January 2009 Future Scenario of International Economics and Transport Based on Questionnaire Survey by the Delphi Method Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Tomoki ISHIKUR, Motohisa ABE, Tomihiro WATANABE Takayuki YAMANE, Tsuneaki YOSHIDA, Kazutomo ABE, Toshinori NEMOTO Shinya HANAOKA, Kenji ONO デルファイ法に基づく国際経済 交通に関する将来シナリオの設定 柴崎隆一 石倉智樹 安部智久 渡部富博 山根隆行吉田恒昭 阿部一知 根本敏則 花岡伸也小野憲司 国土交通省国土技術政策総合研究所 National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

2 Technical Note of NILIM No.495 January 2009 (YSK-N-179) Future Scenario of International Economics and Transport Based on Questionnaire Survey by the Delphi Method Ryuichi SHIBASAKI*, Tomoki ISHIKURA**, Motohisa ABE***, Tomihiro WATANABE****, Tsuneaki YOSHIDA*****, Kazutomo ABE******, Toshinori NEMOTO*******, Shinya HANAOKA********, Kenji ONO********* Synopsis For a discussion on a future vision of international transport infrastructure and forecast on future trade and cargo demand, predicted figures for variables in socio-economics and infrastructure should be given as prerequisites. They will be simply estimated by extrapolation of past trends or based somewhat on econometric methodology. However, these figures may be very uncertain and difficult to estimate, especially in long-term forecasting with large changes over time. In this report, a questionnaire survey was conducted targeting many experts based on the Delphi method which seeks to consolidate expert opinions by repeating questions to the same respondents. The most probable future scenario for international economics and transport in East Asia was summarized in order to contribute to the discussion on the direction they will take in the future and how they ought to be. This is a translation version in English of Technical Note of NILIM, No. 479 in principle. Key Words: Future Scenario, Delphi Method, International Economics, International Transport, East Asia * Senior Researcher, Port and Harbor Department, ** Senior Researcher, Airport Department, *** Head of International Coordination Division, Administrative Coordination Department, *** Head of Port System Division, Port and Harbor Department, ***** Professor, the University of Tokyo, ****** Professor, Tokyo Denki University, ******* Professor, Hitotsubashi University, ******** Associate Professor, Tokyo Institute of Technology, ********* National and Regional Planning Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Nagase 3-1-1, Yokosuka, Japan Phone: Fax: shibasaki-r92y2@ysk.nilim.go.jp i

3 国土技術政策総合研究所資料第 495 号 2009 年 1 月 (YSK-N-179) デルファイ法に基づく 国際経済 交通に関する将来シナリオの設定 柴崎隆一 * 石倉智樹 ** 安部智久 *** 渡部富博 **** 山根隆行 ***** 吉田恒昭 ****** 阿部一知 ******* 根本敏則 ******** 花岡伸也 ********* 小野憲司 ********** 要旨 国際交通インフラの将来像やそのあり方に関する議論を行ったり, またその一環として国際貿易額や貨物流動量といった貨物需要の将来予測を行う際には, これらの前提条件となる社会経済やインフラの状況に関する諸変数に関する将来予測値が必要となる. その簡便な予測方法としては, 過去のトレンドに基づき, そのトレンドをそのまま外挿するか, あるいは計量経済学的な手法を適用することなどが考えられる. しかしながら, これら諸変数の将来予測値は, 経済政策を含む多数の要因が複雑に影響することもあり, 非常に大きな不確実性を有していると考えられ, 特に, 長期的な予測を行う際や, 大きな時代趨勢の変化が生じると予想される状況下においては, 上記のような手法で将来予測を行うことには大きな困難が伴う. そこで本稿は, 上記のような, 東アジア地域を中心とした国際経済や交通のあり方に関する議論や, 将来予測を行う際の一助とすることを目的に, 多数の専門家に同一のアンケートを複数回繰り返すことによって, 回答者が有する将来見通しの明確化と意見の収斂等を図るデルファイ法に基づいたアンケート調査を行い, 最も蓋然性の高い将来シナリオをとりまとめるものである. なお本稿は, 原則として, 国総研資料 No.479 を英訳したものである. キーワード : 将来シナリオ, デルファイ法, 国際経済, 国際交通, 東アジア * 港湾研究部主任研究官,** 空港研究部主任研究官,*** 管理調整部国際業務研究室長,**** 港湾研究部港湾システム研究室長,***** 前副所長 ( 現 ( 財 ) 港湾空間高度化環境研究センター ), ****** 東京大学大学院新領域創成科学研究科教授,******* 東京電機大学工学部教授,******** 一橋大学大学院商学研究科教授,********* 東京工業大学理工学研究科准教授,********** 国土交通省港湾局 横須賀市長瀬 国土技術政策総合研究所電話 : Fax: shibasaki-r92y2@ysk.nilim.go.jp ii

4 Contents 1.Introduction 1 2.Literature review forecasting socioeconomic conditions and features of this research 1 3.Summary of the questionnaire survey 2 4.Aggregate Results of the Questionnaire Survey 3 5.Future scenario based on questionnaire survey results International economic scenario International transport scenario Consideration of the consistency between scenarios and their risks 15 6.Conclusion 16 Acknowledgments 16 References 16 iii

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6 Technical Note of NILIM No Introduction When discussing a future vision of international transport infrastructure and forecasting future situations of international trade and cargo demand, predicted figures for variables in socio-economic and infrastructural conditions (population, GDP, trade barriers such as tariffs, the progress of infrastructure development and increased size of transport equipment, the cost of fuel etc.) should be given as prerequisites. Extrapolation of past trends or econometric method are often applied as simple methods of forecasting; however, predicting future figures for these various variables will generally be attended by a great amount of uncertainty considering that numerous factors including economic policy will influence in a complex way. In particular, in making long-term forecasts, or under circumstances where major changes or gaps in trends of the times are anticipated to occur, future forecasting using the above methods will involve great difficulties. This paper examines possible future scenarios for the international economy and transport fields by conducting questionnaire surveys to Japanese experts in order to support forecasting of the international economy and transport, especially focusing on East Asia and discussing them as they ought to be. Specifically, this paper attempts to investigate future trends across the overall international economy and transport fields by applying the Delphi method in which respondents answer the same questionnaire several times (twice in this survey) for a convergence of opinions. Chapter 2 will review previous literature relating to mid- and long-term forecasts. After providing a summary of the questionnaire survey in chapter 3, the survey results will be described in chapter 4. Based on these results, chapter 5 will summarize the most highly probable future scenarios. Finally, chapter 6 will discuss future prospects and application methods. 2. Literature review forecasting socioeconomic conditions and features of this research The most renowned survey in Japan relating to forecasts based on a questionnaire survey targeting experts is the Forecast survey on the mid- and long-term development of science and technology conducted by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. This survey has been implemented once every five years starting in The eighth and most recent survey conducted in 2005 targeted thirteen,areas 130 fields, and 858 topics across the entire spectrum of science and technology, and responses were gathered from 155 respondents. Among them, the social infrastructure field was comprised of 97 topics on 14 fields. While there were questions which inquired as to the anticipated period for realizing certain themes such as high speed oceanic transport at speeds of knots capable of being utilized in the East Asian economic zone and Pacific routes and a system which will facilitate hubs at railways roads, roads ports/airports, and railways ports/airports to streamline cargo transport and reduce time and costs at these interconnection points, this survey focuses specifically on the future potential for realizing science and technology. It can also be emphasized that there are no questions relating to changes in socioeconomic conditions; and as this survey covers all fields, there are very few questions relating to the international transport field. Apart from this research, numerous books and documents have been published relating to forecasts for the future. Even if we refer only to recently published books in Japan on the subject, several books can be raised such as Komine s (2007) research which discusses the future of Asia based on long-term population forecasts for the world and Asia while also forecasting economic growth; a future scenario of the Japanese economy compiled by researchers of the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (Hattori, 2004); and prospects for the Japanese economy compiled by The Institute for Research in Business Administration Waseda University (2005). Or books relating to forecasts published every year by various consulting companies and newspapers etc. (e.g. Mitsubishi Research Institute, 2007). In particular, Miyagawa (2007) discusses the overall political, economic, and social prospects for Japan and the world based on a questionnaire survey targeting more than 600 experts in industry, government, and academia, and is most similar to this study in terms of its direction. The peculiar characteristics of this study in comparison to the Miyagawa study (2007) are that this study focuses on the international transport field, as well as the international economic and political fields as they apply to the former. The Delphi method has been - 1 -

7 Future Scenario of International Economics and Transport Based on Questionnaire Survey by the Delphi Method / Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Tomoki ISHIKURA, Motohisa ABE,Tomihiro WATANABE, Takayuki YAMANE, Tsuneaki YOSHIDA, Kazutomo ABE, Toshinori NEMOTO, Shinya HANAOKA, Kenji ONO employed as the survey method in conducting questionnaire surveys several times to the same respondents. Questions have been prepared from the outset with the intention of applying them in forecast models of international trade and transport flow. 3. Summary of the questionnaire survey This survey was conducted in collaboration with the Future Scenario Writing WG (project general managers: professor Tsuneaki Yoshida, the University of Tokyo, and professor Kazutomo Abe, Tokyo Denki University) which was established within the Japan Society of Civil Engineers, International Transport Network Strategy Research Subcommittee (chairman: Katsuhiko Kuroda, professor emeritus at Kobe University). A summary of the survey is shown in Table 1. As explained in chapter 1, the Delphi method was employed in which the respondents answered the same questionnaire several times to clarify respondent forecasts and to achieve a convergence of opinions. The distinctive feature of the Delphi method is that the results of the previous survey are provided as feedback to respondents for questionnaires at the next questionnaire survey. The respondents reassess the questions based on the tendency in the opinions of others from the previous survey. The Delphi method was first employed in the 1950 s by an American research institute and was named after the city of Delphi which flourished as an oracular site in ancient Greece. In this research, surveys were conducted twice. In the second survey, the aggregate results from the first survey were provided for each question so that respondents could revise each of their responses if they wished. As questions were prepared with the intention of supporting discussions on how the international economy and transport will be and ought to be in the future, focusing on the East Asian region, it is necessary that they be useful as inputs into international economic and transport models which have been developed by the authors and other researchers in the same field. In addition, these questions should be used as references in order to understand the background when developing the models and to examine the model outputs. They will also be useful when conducting general (i.e. qualitative) discussions over a broader range. We prepared a number of questions across the various topics of the international economy and transport as indicated in Table 1. There were a total of 81 questions in the international economics field, and a total of 103 questions in the international transport field including minor questions, for a total of 184 questions. Table 2 also shows the main topic and sub-topic of questions (the specific content of questions are indicated in Figure 2). In this survey, we generally sent out requests by and respondents filled out the questionnaire in an Excel file through pull-down selection or by entering numeric values. For a portion of the questionnaires, we mailed out and collected hard-copies. Apart from request forms and response sheets, preconditions relating to future population which have been established by the United Nations (because there is a relatively high level of certainty compared to other variables, they were adopted as a precondition for this survey), and reference materials containing information on the latest topics and present situation related to each question were prepared and distributed during the survey. All of the materials were written in Japanese. As described in Figure 1, in this survey, Asian region means the entire Asian region as defined by the United Nations, while the East Asian region means the North East, South East, Central, and South Asian regions (Russia s Siberian region, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and eastward), in so far as there are no specific indications to the contrary. With respect to the question format shown in Figure 1, for the most standard questions, respondents were asked to choose from among 5 stages ranging from there will be significant progress (or, depending on the question, there will be an acceleration, expansion, increase, elevation, or influence in the positive direction) to there will be significant setbacks (or, deceleration, contraction, reduction, decline, or influence in the negative direction) which they think best answers the question being asked for each of four periods ranging from short-term (around 2010), mid-term (around 2015), long-term (around 2020), and very-long-term (after 2020 for roughly years). In addition, in so far as no specific directions are given, responses given for each period are to be responses from a previous period. This requirement is given in order to avoid difficulty in aggregating responses, as results from a previous period will differ depending on the respondent. As well, a format which - 2 -

8 Technical Note of NILIM No.495 Table 1 Outline of Questionnaire Survey 1. Survey period 1st survey: February 2008; 2nd survey: March Number of questions International economics (politics and economics overall, trade and economic policies, etc.): 81 questions International transport (shippers, ports and maritime transport, airports and air transport, land transport, common policies): 103 questions Total: 184 questions 3. Response method Survey requests were sent by and answers were entered in an Excel file (questionnaires were also sent out to some respondents as hard-copies by mail). 4. Materials distributed at time of survey Survey request form and preconditions (omitted due to space constraints) Questions and response sheets (a sample is shown in Figure 1) Reference materials (omitted due to space constraints) *All materials were written in Japanese. 5. Question format (also refer to Figure 1) For the most standard questions, respondents were asked to respond by choosing from among five stages ranging from there will be significant progress (or, depending on the question, there will be an acceleration, expansion, increase, elevation, or influence in the positive direction) to there will be significant setbacks (or, deceleration, contraction, reduction, decline, or influence in the negative direction) (also refer to the response forms indicated in Figure 1) for each of four periods ranging from short-term (around 2010), mid-term (around 2015), long-term (around 2020), and very-long-term (after 2020 for roughly years). For each sub-topic in the questionnaire survey, responses regarding level of expertise were given through self-reporting (in terms of four levels from high, medium, low, and nil). 6. Number of respondents 93 people (universities: 20 people; government offices: 37 people; public institutions: 11 people; private-sector institutions: 25 people). Almost all respondents were Japanese living in Japan. Table 2 Question Topics in the Questionnaire Survey A Questions relating to international economics A-1 Politics and economics overall Politics, economics, and diplomacy in the Asian region Economic growth Regional development A-2 Trade and economic policies Trade promotion and facilitation FTA and EPA A-3 Other economic policies and trends Government expenditures and capital formation Fiscal, monetary, and currency policies Education and labor Environment Industrial trends B Questions relating to international transport B-1 Shippers Upgrading of SCM and DCM, trends in site locations of industrial bases, other trends in logistics, etc. B-2 Ports and maritime transport Trends in maritime transport demand focusing on East Asia Strategies of shipping companies Development of international RORO ships and international ferry transport Building and operating of Mega-Container Ships New construction and expansion of container terminals and mega-operator trends Passenger demand Safety and security Ports and maritime transport policies in Japan and Asia B-3 Airports and air transport Air transport market trends in the East Asian Air transport policies in East Asia Air transport security Airport and air transport trends in Japan B-4 Inland transport and intermodal transport Development of cross-border transport Investment into the inland transport infrastructure B-5 Others Potential for collaboration in common transport policies in East Asia asks the respondent to rank selections in order of descending priority (due to space limitations, enter your top 4 choices) is employed for a portion of questions. These questions ask the respondent to provide forecasts for A format is also employed for a portion of questions which inquires as to the number of services and ship size etc. according to time period. For each sub-topic in the questionnaire survey (corresponding to each entry itemized in Table 2), answered based on current status and not based on responses regarding the respondent s level of expertise for the topic in question were made through self-reporting in terms of four levels (high, medium, low, nil; level of expertise nil responses were considered the same as no response ). As a result of soliciting cooperation from about Japanese researchers and experts specializing in international transport and international economics, despite the questionnaire survey being a large-scale survey covering a broad range of topics, responses were ultimately obtained from 93 people, including Japanese experts living abroad. A breakdown of respondent affiliations is also shown in Table 1. As survey requests were sent out to numerous experts by etc., the rate of response cannot be calculated. A breakdown of the number of respondents and their level of expertise per sub-topic is included in Figure Aggregate Results of the Questionnaire Survey The final results for all questions in the questionnaire survey (the aggregate results of the 2 nd survey) conducted based on the aforementioned method are shown in Figure 2 from p Regarding the aggregation of results, weighted aggregation was conducted based on the level of expertise for each sub-topic in the questionnaire survey. In other words, level of expertise responses of high were calculated as - 3 -

9 Future Scenario of International Economics and Transport Based on Questionnaire Survey by the Delphi Method / Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Tomoki ISHIKURA, Motohisa ABE,Tomihiro WATANABE, Takayuki YAMANE, Tsuneaki YOSHIDA, Kazutomo ABE, Toshinori NEMOTO, Shinya HANAOKA, Kenji ONO 国際経済 交通シナリオに関するアンケート調査 ~A. 国際経済に関するシナリオ ~ 氏名 所属 2 回目の調査時にご記入頂いた内容とともに 集計結果をご報告致します ここでは 国際経済に関するシナリオについてお伺いします 各設問について 時期ごと または順位をご回答ください なお 2020 年 ~ の欄には 長期的な視点での将来予測をご回答ください ( 概ね30~40 年後 ) また 各時点の回答は 現在を基準にお答えください 特に時点の説明なく順位のみをたずねている設問は 2020 年頃の状況を想定してお答えください なお 特に断りがなければ アジア地域 とはアジア全域を 東アジア地域 とは北東 東南 中央 南アジア地域 ( ロシアのシベリア地方 カザフスタン トルクメニスタン アフガニスタン パキスタン以東 ) をさします 回答番号についての説明 ご回答は 設問選択肢に応じて 下記番号 (0~5) または をご入力ください なお 自由記入などの設問へは 直接 文字 数値等をご回答ください 回答番号 ご回答は 設問選択肢に応じて 下記番号 (0~5) をご入力ください 実現可能性 実現する やや / 部分的に実現する 実現しない? わからない 回答番号設問選択肢 5 ( 高い ) 4 ( やや高い ) 3 ( 中立 ) 2 ( やや低い ) 1 ( 低い ) 0 加速 or 減速 / 拡大 or 縮小 / 増加 or 減少 / 進展 or 後退 / 大きく / 全面的に加速 拡大 増加 進展する 緩やかに / 部分的に加速 拡大 増加 進展する 横ばい / 現状維持 緩やかに / 部分的に減速 縮小 減少 後退する 大きく / 全面的に減速 縮小 減少 後退する マイナスとなる? わからない 影響の度合い 増加方向に大きく影響する 増加方向に多少影響する ほとんど影響しない 減少方向に多少影響する 減少方向に大きく影響する? わからない 上昇 or 下落 大幅に上昇する やや上昇する 横ばい / 現状維持 やや下落する 大幅に下落する? わからない 専門度 大 中 小 なし * * 専門度 ( なし ) の場合はご回答いただかなくて結構です A-1. 政治 経済全般 1アジア地域の政治 経済 外交 本分野に関する専門度を選択してください No 設問内容 ご回答欄 アジアにおける政治的安定 ( 広域 ) 資料編 ~2010 年 ( 短回答方法ページ期 ) 1 アジア地域は 全体的に見てより安定化 に向かうと考えられますか 進展 or 後退 時期毎 ~2015 年 ( 中 ~2020 年 ( 長 2020 年以降期 ) 期 ) ( 超長期 ) 2 北東アジア ( 日本 中国 韓国 北朝鮮 ロシア ) 地域は 概ね安定化に向かうと考えられますか 進展 or 後退 時期毎 3 ASEAN(10 国 ) 地域は 概ねより安定化に A-1~5 向かうと考えられますか 進展 or 後退時期毎 4 南アジア ( インド バングラデシュ パキスタン スリランカ ネパール ブータン ) 地域は 概ね安定化に向かうと考えられますか 進展 or 後退 時期毎 5 東アジア地域において EU のような政治 経済的統合が実現すると思いますか - 実現可能性 ( ) 時期毎 Figure 1 Sample of questionnaires and response form (for hard-copy responses) - 4 -

10 Technical Note of NILIM No.495 a multiple of 3, responses of intermediate were calculated as a multiple of 2, responses of small were calculated as a multiple of 1, and responses of nil were calculated by a multiple of 0 (= excluded from aggregation). Regarding questions which ask the respondent to enter responses in ranking order, points were aggregated by awarding 1 st ranked responses with 4 points, 2 nd ranked responses with 3 points, 3 rd ranked responses with 2 points, and 4 th ranked responses with 1 point, while also taking into account the above level of expertise in the aggregation. For almost all questions, a large disparity was not observed between the results of the first and second surveys. As well, referring to the graphs in Figure 2, there were few answers for which peaks split into two or were spread out among respondents. In the following chapter, future prospects for the fields of international economics and transport reflecting the overall results of this questionnaire survey will be discussed. Before this, we will individually refer to several representative or contentious questions hereafter. A. The field of international economics (Q-A14) With the exception of China, the real rate of economic growth among East Asian countries has been hovering at 4 6% in recent years. What is your forecast for future growth rate compared to current conditions? According to the aggregated results indicated on p.21, there were many respondents who forecast over the short- (presupposing around 2010) and mid-terms (2015) that growth rate would be slightly higher compared to present conditions. Over the long- (2020) and very-long-terms (after 2020), we can see that many respondents forecast that the growth rate would slow down compared to present conditions. This suggests that while for the next years, various developing countries including India are expected to have more economic growth than ever before, after this, economic growth within the East Asian region will settle down and move onto a track of stable growth. Similarly for the next question Q-A15 on forecasts for future economic growth in China, forecasts that the status quo would be maintained over the short- and mid-terms, and that growth would slow down over the long- and very-long terms were predominant. Figure 1 Sample of questionnaires and response form (for hard-copy responses) (Q-A20) Intending to correct domestic disparities, the Chinese government has been proceeding to conduct priority development measures in Western China from around 2000 (the so-called Grand development of the West ). Do you think that the gap between East and West China (the interministerial disparities in per capita GDP) will be reduced by implementing such measures? Or do you think investment into the coastal area will continue at a brisk pace despite implementing these measures and the disparity will widen? This is an example of a question for which there is a dispersal in response peaks. Despite this being the Chinese government s Grand Development of the West policy, while there were many respondents who forecast that disparities between East and West China would expand over the short- and mid-terms, opinions were divided on whether the effects of policies would manifest over the long- and very-long-terms. While most respondents presumed that disparities would shrink to a certain extent over the very-long-term, almost 3 of respondents expected disparities to continue along a widening course over the very-long-term as well. B. The field of international transport (Q-B29) It is said that in the first half of 2009, 16,000 TEU class mega-container ships are scheduled to go into service. In the future, how far do you anticipate the enlargement of container ship size will continue? As indicated on p.40, the majority of respondents forecast that the size increases of large-size container ships would not go beyond 18,000 20,000 TEU class even when viewed over the very-long-term. This suggests the high possibility that the increases in container ship size will soon peak out. (Q-B-31) 1) About how many ports of call do you expect mega-container ships to make in the East Asian region for every 1 loop? 2) Where do you anticipate their main port calls will be made? - 5 -

11 Future Scenario of International Economics and Transport Based on Questionnaire Survey by the Delphi Method / Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Tomoki ISHIKURA, Motohisa ABE,Tomihiro WATANABE, Takayuki YAMANE, Tsuneaki YOSHIDA, Kazutomo ABE, Toshinori NEMOTO, Shinya HANAOKA, Kenji ONO As indicated on p.41, it is forecast that ultra-large container ships will call at roughly 3 5 ports in East Asia. As Japanese ports do not rank-in within the top 5 ports of call, this suggests the low possibility that mega-container ships will call to port at Japanese ports. (Q-B-32) Among Japan s neighboring countries, the construction of new berths and expansion of terminals to possess hub functions are proceeding, such as the Port of Shanghai, Pusan New Port, and Gwangyang Port. Considering the investment plan on port facilities in the East Asian region (such as the number of under-constructed and planned new berths) and future cargo demand, 1) list the ports which you anticipate have a relatively high potential to achieve their port investment plans (or, to be implemented ahead of schedule). 2) As well, list ports which you anticipate have a relatively low potential to achieve their port improvement plans (or, to be implemented behind schedule). As indicated on p.41, it is anticipated there is a high potential for the port investment plans of many Chinese ports to be realized, including the Port of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Tianjin, or a high possibility for these plans to be implemented ahead of schedule. On the other hand, other port plans around China such as South Korea and Taiwan including the Port of Gwangyang, Pusan, and Kaohsiung Port, are anticipated to have a low potential for realization. While Pusan New Port ranked-in 2 nd for either question, low realizability was greater in terms of score. (Q-B-38) The inspection of all container cargo which is exported to the U.S. will be made mandatory in the future. Due to the implementation of such policies, how many days do you anticipate lead time at ports will be prolonged compared to current conditions? Consider the long-term course of policies in your response. As indicated on p.43, due to the inspection of all cargo bound for the U.S. being made obligatory, while lead time is expected to increase by about 3 days for the time being (short-term), it is thereafter expected to gradually shorten with the passage of time owing to advances in technology etc. Ultimately (very-long-term), lead time is expected to return to present levels or to about 1 2 days longer than present levels. 5. Future scenario based on questionnaire survey results Based on the results shown in the previous chapter and through discussions among authors, the most highly probable future scenario for the international economy and transport overall has been established, as shown below in 5.1 and 5.2. As well, we examined whether there is consistency across topics and fields with the established scenario, as shown in International economic scenario (1) Politics and diplomacy in Asia The basic scenario for the political and diplomatic situation in the overall Asian region is that, through patient dialogue among associated countries (for example, as can be seen with the six-nation talks for North Korean nuclear disarmament), while dramatic improvements are not expected to be seen over the shortand mid-terms, significant improvements toward regional stabilization are expected to be seen over the long- and very-long-terms. Looking at each region individually, improvements will continue in ASEAN 1 and slight improvements will be seen in North East and South Asia over the very-long-term. With respect to individual outstanding issues such as Japan s Northern Territories, the Korean Peninsula, China and Taiwan, and Myanmar, while the possibility of achieving resolutions over the short-, mid-, and long-terms is not favorable with the exception of Myanmar, the possibility does somewhat exist for the Korean Peninsula to head toward unification over the very-long-term. As well, while transition to civilian rule and to an open economy in Myanmar will be difficult over the short-term, the possibility does exist over the mid- and long-terms. With regard to Japan s Northern Territories issue, while there is a low possibility of reversion to Japan or of arriving at some sort of political solution over the very-long-term, and while the possibility is also low over the very-long-term of unifying China and Taiwan, the possibility of establishing one country, two systems cannot be 1 ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations): comprised of 10 nations including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia, with an overall population of 567 million people (2006 estimate)

12 Technical Note of NILIM No.495 denied. Thus, the potential to realize political and economic regional integration for the entire Asian region similar to the EU is not great, even when viewed over the very-long-term, and there is hardly any potential for realizing this when considered over the next years. However, the possibility of realizing localized and partial economic regional integration including currency unification cannot be denied. As for countries which will have a comprehensive political, economic, and diplomatic influence on North East Asia, ASEAN, Central Asia, and the South Asian region respectively at around 2020, China, the U.S., and Japan, in ranking order, will have an effect on North East Asia and ASEAN. On the other hand, Russia, China, and the U.S. in ranking order will be influential in Central Asia. India, the U.S. and China in ranking order will have influence in South Asia. As mentioned above, Japan s level of influence is small, ranking 3 rd in its influence on North East Asia and ASEAN, and ranking after 6 th place in terms of its influence on Central Asia and South Asia. Thus, Japan s external power of influence descends in ranking order relative to China, Russia, and India. Summarizing the above basic scenario, political stability in Asia as a whole will gradually increase, and individual matters of concern which threaten regional political stability will head toward resolution over time. However, the realization of a consortium similar to the EU is still slim even several decades in the future. Risks inherent within this basic scenario are those accompanying the resolution of major political themes such as disparity in income levels, ethnic minorities, and democratization within China. These Chinese risks will have a decisive influence on the stability of politics and diplomacy in the Asian region as a whole, as well as on economic growth. (2) Economic growth After the collapse of the cold war between the East and West, and on the occasion of the introduction of an open market economy in the East, the world economy was in a growth period attended by the vitalization of trade. If the countries of the world, as a principle, aspire toward a global economy, and are able to implement appropriate measures to counter the negative effects accompanying global economics, the world s economy will do well in the future. Even while environmental conditions and resource constraints become stringent, the growth of the global economy will continue to be pulled along by BRICs 2 over the short-to very-long-terms, and will thereafter be pulled along by ASEAN and NEXT11 3. Real economic growth in East Asian countries with the exception of China and Japan over the short- and mid-terms will demonstrate a further increasing tendency compared to present conditions (4% 6%), but will slow down somewhat over the long- and very-long-terms. On the other hand, while China s growth rate will continue at around 1 over the short- and mid-terms, it will slow down somewhat over the long- and very-long-terms. In Japan, present conditions of economic growth will, for the most part, be maintained (1% 2%), and there is the possibility that it will slightly rise over the long- and very-long-terms due to structural reforms and technical innovations. To summarize, while Japan will continue to maintain its current conditions, China and ASEAN will continue to have a steady economy for awhile, and will then start to slow down over the very-long-term due to constraints relating to the environment, resources, and real wage increases. Such trends also coincide with the convergence hypothesis which expounds that increases in income resulting from capital accumulation and productivity increases in developing countries will slow down over the mid- and long-terms. As well, in East Asian developing countries (particularly China), a declining birthrate and an aging population will progress over the mid- and long-terms. Despite such negative factors for growth, the basic scenario presupposes that technological advances (structural reforms and technical innovations) which support economic growth will continue. The fact that Japan s economic growth rate is lower than that of other East Asian countries is one factor for Japan s relative decline in external power of influence. Keep in mind that the optimistic economic growth forecast in terms of the abovementioned basic scenario is only valid under the presupposition that political and diplomatic safety in Asia continues. As a result of global economics, the risks are not low that there will be anti-global movements accompanying labor dumping in developed countries in Asia, an expansion of extreme income disparities in least-developed countries, and 2 The four countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China. 3 NEXT11: South Korea, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, Vietnam, Mexico

13 Future Scenario of International Economics and Transport Based on Questionnaire Survey by the Delphi Method / Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Tomoki ISHIKURA, Motohisa ABE,Tomihiro WATANABE, Takayuki YAMANE, Tsuneaki YOSHIDA, Kazutomo ABE, Toshinori NEMOTO, Shinya HANAOKA, Kenji ONO governmental collapse accompanying the failure of democratization particular to developing countries. In particular, we should be aware that whether or not domestic political issues in China and India can be smoothly overcome will have a great impact on economic growth in Asia as a whole. (3) Regional development Regarding major trends in Asian regional development, there is a high possibility that GMS 4 will achieve sustained accelerated growth through the deployment of various collaborative programs, and that Central Asia will realize economic and political integration over the long- and very-long-terms. On the other hand, the achievement of Tumen River Area development cannot be expected at an early date, although some progress can be expected over the very-long-term. While regional disparities between China s eastern and western regions is expected to shrink over the short- and mid-terms due to the Chinese government s Grand Development of the West policy, opinions are split over whether regional income disparities will be narrowed or widened over the long- and very-long-terms. This regional income disparity and dramatic expansion of income disparities among people is interlinked with ethnic problems, and will become a major political risk for China together with the advancement of informatization and democratization. Keep in mind that this risk will greatly influence regional development in neighboring regions such as GMS, Central Asia, and the Tumen River Area. (4) Trade Promotion and Facilitation For the world as a whole, the commoditizing of open economy and market development strategies will continue. To this end, the streamlining of trade will continue to be maintained even over the very-long-term through the simplification of export procedures, reduction of non-tariff barriers, the conclusion of tariff unions, the promotion and promulgation of the WTO system, and reduction in international transport costs. However, a stable governance which pays adequate attention to correct the negative effects of globalization such as domestic and international income disparities 4 Greater Mekong Subregion: The region downstream of Mekong River (Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam) in addition to China s Yunnan Province and Guangxi Province, where regional development cooperation is being promoted. and controls social concerns such as terrorism is an indispensable precondition for sustainable growth. As well, there is also the risk that growth will slow down over the very-long-term from the standpoint of environmental resource constraints. If such risks can be appropriately controlled, there is a high possibility that the trend for growth in trade value to exceed economic growth may continue to across the world as a whole and in the East Asian region over the mid- and long-terms as well. Thus, the role of politics both domestically and internationally in controlling these risks will be extremely important. (5) Economic cooperation Tariff rates in the world and in the East Asian region will gradually decline, although they will not be completely eliminated. Tariff rates between East Asian countries and Western countries will also decline gradually. On the other hand, although some time will be required until a further reduction of tariff rates between the U.S. and European countries will occur, due in part because they are already relatively low (approx. 4%), additional reductions in tariff rates will occur over the very-long-term. With respect to Japan s FTA/EPA 5, while tariff rates between Japan and South Korea and between Japan and China will remain unchanged over the short-term, slightly drop over the mid- and long-terms, and will achieve significant reductions over the very-long-term, tariff rate reductions between Japan and China will be more limited over the very-long-term compared with those between Japan and South Korea. Among Japan s FTA/EPA partner nations, the most important is China, followed by ASEAN, South Korea, India, and Australia, in order of descending priority. Themes for the further promotion and facilitation of trade in Japan through the conclusion of FTA/EPA s etc. include market liberalization of the agricultural sector, simplification of import and export procedures, and reduction of costs for international transport. With respect to FTA s concluded between other nations (between China and ASEAN; between the U.S. and South Korea), while trade between these respective countries will of course be promoted, their impact on trade with Japan will in either case be limited. 5 FTA: Free Trade Agreement; EPA: Economic Partnership Agreement

14 Technical Note of NILIM No.495 (6) Government expenditures and capital formation While Japanese government expenditures as a proportion of GDP will be similar over the short- and mid-terms, there will be a decreasing tendency in the long- and very-long-terms. On the other hand, government expenditures in China will continue to increase in the future. Gross fixed capital formation in Japan is presently about 24% of GDP and this rate will continue along a decreasing trend in the future. Gross fixed capital formation in China is high at about 43% of GDP, and while it will continue along an increasing trend in the short- and mid-terms, this increase will be curtailed in the long- and very-long-terms. This means that mid-term capital accumulation and the process of high growth on this basis will decrease in the long-term. Gross fixed capital formation in other East Asian developing countries as a proportion of GDP will continue an increasing trend in the short- and mid-terms, and this percentage will be maintained over the long- and very-long-terms. Capital formation worldwide, while not as great as in East Asia, will be robust. The total amount of ODA to East Asian developing countries will gradually decrease. The inflow of foreign capital in real terms to the entire area of East Asia including Japan and China will continue along an increasing trend. The improvement in capital balance accompanied with the decline of trade surpluses in East Asian countries (especially China), as well as the vitalization of foreign investment by these countries will form the background for this trend. While investment into Japan s transport infrastructure will gradually decline, investment into the transport infrastructures in East Asian developing countries as a whole will continue along an increasing trend. A tendency for dependence on private funding as additional finances will continue. High priority methods to procure funding to promote transport infrastructure investment in East Asian countries include PPP/PFI 6, investment by transport companies, government investment through public loans etc., and ODA etc. in order of descending priority. (7) Fiscal, monetary, and exchange policies Although Japan s budget deficit will continue to expand, 6 PPP: Public Private Partnership; PFI: Private Financing Initiatives. it will fall below current levels over the very-long-term. Among East Asian countries, China, The Philippines, Indonesia, and North Korea can be raised as countries at high risk of falling into financial crisis. The weakening of the U.S. dollar will continue for the time being relative to other major currencies, and will grow weaker than current conditions even when viewed over the long-term. In particular, there is a high possibility that the Chinese yuan will be revalued. While there is almost no possibility that a monetary union in East Asia will be realized over the next years, a monetary union may be realized for a section of East Asia in the very-long-term. (8) Education and labor In East Asian countries as a whole, while the percentage of students moving on to higher education will continue to rise, the quality of labor will improve, and international labor movement will be invigorated; however, it cannot be said that this will continue substantially over the very-long-term. Real wages in China will continue to rise in the future, and the Household Registration Control System will be abolished in the next years. Japan will promote immigration in the next 5 10 years, with the possibility of substantially increasing immigrant labor over the very-long-term. The policy proposal by the Japanese Central Education Council to substantially increase the number of foreign students (from the current 140,000 students, to 1 million students by 2025) can be seen as a precursor to this labor immigration. (9) Environment Efforts to form agreements for global warming countermeasures will continue to be planned, although specific results over the short-term for East Asia as a whole cannot be expected. Japan will introduce an environment tax over the mid-term, and East Asian countries will follow suit about 10 years later by introducing an environment tax in stages. On the other hand, CO 2 emissions trading will progress in stages, and will be introduced on a full scale after years. Significant environmental effects can be expected over the very-long-term. (10) Industrial trends While the production volume and price of iron and steel - 9 -

15 Future Scenario of International Economics and Transport Based on Questionnaire Survey by the Delphi Method / Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Tomoki ISHIKURA, Motohisa ABE,Tomihiro WATANABE, Takayuki YAMANE, Tsuneaki YOSHIDA, Kazutomo ABE, Toshinori NEMOTO, Shinya HANAOKA, Kenji ONO will dramatically rise over the next few years, it will thereafter settle down and then return to current levels. The production volume and price of agricultural products will rise. Production and consumption of automobiles, IT, electrical products will shift at higher than current levels. Although the supply of crude oil will increase in the mid- and long-terms, there is a high possibility that supply will drop below current levels over the very-long-term. On the other hand, crude oil prices will rise over the short-term, and although current levels ($100 dollars) will be maintained over the very-long-term, it is possible they may fall slightly. The price of alternative energies will relatively drop over the very-long-term and shares will increase to about an equivalent level with conventional energies. 5.2 International transport scenario (1) Shippers (multinational corporations) The restructuring of manufacturing and logistics bases in Asia is proceeding, bolstered by progress through FTA/ETA s. Various factors are comprehensively drawn from to determine the location of such bases, such as market attractiveness, tariff rates, labor costs, the quality of labor, in addition to various conditions of infrastructural development, the accessibility of logistics services, and political stability, among others. Since China s entry in the WTO at the end of 2001, investment in China is increasing, and this trend is expected to continue over the short-term (until 2010). In recent years, ASEAN (especially Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam) is being reevaluated as an investment destination. As well, India is attracting attention as a market, and over the mid- and long-terms (until 2020), investment into ASEAN and India is expected to relatively increase. While these countries have introduced special zones which give tax incentives particularly special logistics-related zones such as export processing zones as a means to attract investment, it is expected that these zones will continue to increase for the time being. In the long-term, regional enterprises will become stronger, and the necessity to give preferential treatment to foreign capital will wane. Over the very-long-term, it is anticipated that the role played by special zones will become smaller due to the harmonization of industrial competition policies within the region. Multinational corporations which are deployed in Asia obtain raw materials and industrial parts not only from local enterprises in the countries where they are located, but from companies in neighboring countries, and are shipping products within these countries and regions. Companies need to optimize their management of the entire supply chain within the region in accordance with final consumption demand. For example, in obtaining parts from abroad, the automobile industry is required to conduct milk run collections 7 of parts required for production, consolidate them into containers, and to swiftly transport them to assembly plants. While sophisticated logistics services which respond to the needs of shippers have been provided by Western and Japanese logistics companies, logistics companies established with local capital in China and ASEAN as 3PL 8 have also begun attempts in providing the same kind of services. The quality of services provided by these logistics companies established with local capital is expected to increase over the mid- and long-terms. (2) Ports and maritime transport a) Trends in maritime cargo and passenger transport demand with a focus on East Asia International maritime container cargo demand in the world is expected to continue growing at least at its current pace into the future (at an annual rate of approx. 1). It is possible that the pace of growth will further become robust temporarily over the short- and mid-terms. Even international maritime containers to/from the East Asian region and to/from other regions of the world including Western countries, which account for about 2/3 of the world s flow, are expected to follow a similar tendency. On the other hand, as for international maritime containers within the East Asian region, there is a high possibility that the current pace of increase will continue even over the short- and long-terms. While containerization is expected to proceed in the future with a focus on perishable food, scraps, wooden products, and grains etc., it is also possible that a slight swing-back may occur over the very-long-term. Following 20ft, 40ft, and 40ft high-cube containers, while 45ft containers which received ISO standardization in 2005 only account for about 2% of overall container 7 The manufacturer or consigned carrier collects industrial parts from shippers by making rounds following a predetermined pick up route. 8 3PL: Third Party Logistics refers to the outsourcing of all or a significant part of a shipper's logistics requirements, or refers to the outsourced provider of these services