Collaborative Research on International Logistics and International Trade in China Under One Belt and One Road Strategy

Transcription

1 2017 4th International Conference on Modern Economic Technology and Management (ICMETM 2017) ISBN: Collaborative Research on International Logistics and International Trade in China Under One Belt and One Road Strategy Xiling Yang* Jincheng College of Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China ABSTRACT: The implementation of the One Belt and One Road strategy has brought new opportunities for international trade and international logistics. The implementation of the strategy and the operation of the free trade zone will be eventually implemented through the collaborative development of international trade and international logistics. Based on the perspectives of international trade and international logistics, this paper analyzes the theory of international trade and international logistics, and puts forward specific development strategies for the problems encountered in the current collaborative development of international trade and international logistics by considering the characteristics of mutual promotion and mutual restriction between the collaborative development of international trade and international logistics, and then uses the gray theory to conduct correlation analysis of the time series of several international logistics indicators and total volume of import and export trade by taking the specific provincial and municipal data as an example, and discusses the impact of various factors on the international trade through co-integration analysis and Granger test. Keywords: One Belt and One Road; international logistics; international trade; collaborative development 1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND *Corresponding author: lunwen7879@126.com The proposal of One Belt and One Road strategy in China has made the international trade and international logistics usher in a new peak of development. 18 provinces and cities delineated in the One Belt and One Road conform to the general trend of development and vigorously promote economic restructuring and upgrading and the development of international trade and international logistics. The implementation of the grand strategy, the operation of the free trade zone and the development of international trade will eventually implemented through the collaborative development of international trade and international logistics along the belt and the road, so the modern logistics is widely considered to be the third source of profit [1, 2]. The essence of international logistics is to realize the flow and exchange of goods internationally, in order to promote the optimal allocation of world resources and the collaborative development of regional economy. With the vigorous development of international trade, international logistics can be continuously expanded [3]. As a link of economic exchanges between countries, international logistics and international trade jointly constitute two indispensable aspects of the world economic development, and international logistics industry plays an irreplaceable role in promoting the development of international trade, with interdependence and mutual restrictions. Under the implementation environment of the One Belt and One Road strategy, to enhance the core competitiveness of international trade, and realize the substantial development of international trade, China needs to have a thinking and philosophy of collaborative development of international trade and international logistics, so as to promote strategic collaboration of the international trade and international logistics, which has a special significance on the implementation of the national strategy of One Belt and One Road and promotion of the sustained and steady development of international trade and international logistics [4,5]. On this basis, this paper carries out a research on the collaborative development of international trade and international logistics, and analyzes the impact of international logistics on international trade in detail through examples. 45

2 2 RESEARCH OVERVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS Michael P. Keane and Susan E. Feinberg analyzed that logistics efficiency is an important influencing factor of trade performance and proposed that the growth of foreign trade turnover can be achieved by enhancing the logistics efficiency [6]. The research results of Daniel Saslavsky showed that the policy makers in developing countries can promote economic development by supporting the improvement of logistics efficiency and increasing the strength of foreign trade [7]. Hong-Oanh Nguyen, Jose Tongzon put forward an idea of improving the efficiency of international logistics from the perspective of supply chain by describing the increasing sensitivity of the manufacturing industry and retail industry to the import and export time period, and clearly mentioned that the efficient management of upstream and downstream customer groups can effectively promote the international trade [8]. Through research of the proportion of ports and wharfs in South Africa in the cost of international trade logistics, Jan Havenga concluded: after removing the cost of maritime transport, the cost of ports and wharfs accounts for only 10% of the total international logistics costs and the countermeasures to reduce the international logistics costs can be found by analyzing the remaining 90% of the costs [9]. Chinese scholars have made relevant researches on the development of international trade and logistics under the background of One Belt and One Road. Liu Ping put forward effective countermeasures against the problems through VAR quantitative analysis of the specific promotion intensity of foreign trade in the logistics industry, in order to promote the healthy development of foreign trade [10]. Chen Shijun explained how logistics hinders or promotes the growth of international trade from transportation costs, management costs and inventory costs, and quantitatively analyzed the effect of costs on import and export volume by using abstract models [11]. Zhang Jing researched the impact of international logistics elements on international trade by using the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, and finally put forward suggestions of promoting the friendly development of international logistics and international trade [12]. Wang Shanjun and Zhang Qiong researched the mechanism of the collaborative development of international trade and international logistics under One Belt and One Road strategy, and provided specific measures for the establishment of a collaborative mechanism [13, 14]. Taking Guangdong Province as an example, Zhang Liangwei obtained a conclusion that there is a positive correlation between the total output value of international logistics in Guangdong Province and the export volume in Guangdong Province, and proposed strategies to promote the collaborative development of international logistics and international trade [15]. Shen Yanyan analyzed the collaborative development relationship between international logistics and international trade in Shanghai by using the econometric model, and found that the international logistics industry plays a very strong promoting role in the development of import and export trade in Shanghai, and the export trade in Shanghai will in turn promote the development of international logistics [16]. 3 INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS 3.1 Theoretical basis International logistics (1) Concept of international logistics International logistics refers to the logistics between different countries, which is an extension and expansion of domestic logistics. An important part of the international trade is international logistics. It is impossible to successfully complete international trade in case of separating from international logistics. Goods M are produced and sold respectively in A and B countries. Only when there is a whole process of the seller s surrender of document, transportation, buyer s payment and pickup (realize transfer M from A to B), the mission of the international logistics is completed. (2) International logistics theory This paper summarizes the four theories that have the greatest influence, which are respectively the cost center theory, the profit center theory, the service center theory and the strategic center theory put forward in the context of global integration. After World War II, the cost center theory was initially formed. In the process of rebuilding the post-war economy, the developed countries, such as the United States gradually turned the concept of logistics used for the military to the people s livelihood industry and obtained considerable economic benefits. The theory stated that, the enterprises can achieve the original intention of reducing trade costs by this method if they can improve a set of reasonable and efficient logistics management system and help to effectively transfer goods in trans-region, space and time. The profit center theory was originated from Japan s third source of profit. In the past, people believed that profits mainly came from natural resources and human resources. This theory proposed to continuously develop high value-added logistics services and promote the development of the logistics industry through the integrated management of logistics and the development of specialized logistics services (third-party logistics). The achievements made by Japan in the development of the entire international logistics industry in the 1960s are the best proof of this theory [17]. The service center theory differentiated from the 46

3 above two theories, and mentioned cost reduction and profit making methods. It pointed out that consumers excellent service evaluation from the service satisfaction can improve the competitiveness and market share of enterprises. This theory emphasized the guarantee function of logistics services, and pointed out that, in order to meet the individualized service demand of consumers, it is necessary to implement a service guarantee system that customer is God in the development of logistics. The strategic center theory pointed out that the logistics industry is a basic industry affecting the lifelines of the national economy based on long-term and strategic considerations. As an indispensable intermediate link in the social production and supply chain, logistics is not only a simple operation task within the enterprises, but also a strong thrust of an overall economic development. This theory advocated to using the national resources to vigorously develop the global logistics network, improve relevant standards and policies and regulations of the logistics, and establish a comprehensive logistics system with unified, informationalized and internationalized management International trade (1) Concept of international trade International trade refers to an activity of exchange between goods and services by countries (or regions) in the world, which is a major form of interconnection between countries (or regions) on the basis of international division of labor. It reflects interdependence between countries (or regions) in the world in economy, which is a sum of foreign trade in various countries. (2) International trade theory In 1985, Michael E. Porter pointed out in the value chain theory that, material purchase logistics, delivery logistics, production, sales and after-sales services involved in logistics constitute an overall value chain of the enterprise and constitute the competitive advantages of the enterprise. Among them, the material purchase logistics includes receipt of raw materials, storage, warehousing management; delivery logistics involves in the storage activities after production of products and before delivery to the buyers. Therefore, logistics activities are extremely important hub in the upstream and downstream of the enterprise value. Enterprise improving the management efficiency in the upstream and downstream of the value chain (logistics activities) can greatly help the enterprise gain market share; at the same time, the smooth development of the logistics links will give a reversal feedback to help upstream enterprises develop more efficient production plans based on the feedback, and form a virtuous circle. For the entire industry, the logistics links can accelerate the flow of industry resources, smoothen the entire value chain, increase the flash points of foreign trade enterprises, and boost the growth of international trade volume. 3.2 Collaborative development of international trade and international logistics Relationship between international trade and international logistics The emergence and development of international logistics are inseparable from the development of international trade, and there is a very close relationship and interaction between them. On the one hand, the existence of international trade makes the international logistics have living soil. With the deep development of economic globalization, the trade intercourse between countries in the world has become more frequent and the international logistics have witnessed a great development. No matter a country, a region or an enterprise, it is necessary to rely on the international logistics system to smoothly complete the mutual exchange of goods and commodities, or otherwise it is impossible to complete exchange. In this sense, international trade hastens child delivery of international logistics. With the rapid development of economy in various countries and frequent international trade, international trade has an increasingly larger demand for international logistics, and an increasingly higher requirement on the level of international logistics, thus promoting international logistics to develop towards standardization, systematization and informationlization, which becomes the biggest impetus for the development of international logistics. On the other hand, international logistics can greatly promote the development of international trade. When human society enters the era of information and knowledge economy, increasingly diversified and individualized demand of consumers is manifested in international trade. Different trade subjects and regions have different trade requirements. However, modern international logistics system can not only meet the traditional needs of daily freight transportation, loading and unloading, but also provide various services such as information exchange, logistics custody and e-commerce for the individual needs of different trade subjects through the establishment of standardization, specialization and systematization system, in order to help international trade enterprises provide customers with quality services. Therefore, international logistics is becoming a driving force for the development of international trade to a large extent. In the regions with more developed international logistics, its international trade is more efficient and more competitive. 47

4 3.2.2 Problems encountered in collaborative development of international trade and international logistics in China (1) One Belt and One Road strategy fails to obtain a wide international recognition. The establishment of AIIB in China has become an important support for the One Belt and One Road strategy. However, the understanding of One Belt and One Road strategy by the international community is far from enough. For many countries along the line, One Belt and One Road strategy has a strong political complexion, which has an inevitable impact on the traditional international politics and the international economy, so that these countries are somewhat cautious in treating One Belt and One Road. (2) International trade and international logistics are faced with a huge difficulty in collaborative development The natural conditions and transportation conditions of the countries along the One Belt and One Road are backward and the transport and turnover of goods are very difficult. On the other hand, the relations between countries are complicated, with distinct characteristics, but lack of mutual intercourse in modern society. The understanding of One Belt and One Road strategy is different, and rights and obligations in the entire strategy are unable to be recognized. Various countries also face different situations in the collaborative development of international logistics and international trade, with huge difficulties. (3) The development of international logistics enterprises faces uncertainty The development prospects of China s international logistics are facing a great uncertainty. 1. China s logistics enterprises have a limited understanding of the international logistics industry, and do not know how to carry out the international logistics business under the One Belt and One Road strategy, and lack of scientific logistics management capability that the international logistics giant exists. 2. The initial investment and operation costs of international logistics are relatively high. China s logistics enterprises at the low end of the international logistics value chain for a long term are unwilling to invest manpower and material resources. Relative to the mature domestic logistics market, the development of the logistics industry in the countries along One Belt and One Road is not yet mature. It is also very difficult for China s logistics enterprises to gain the favor by local consumers even if they enter the market Strategies for collaborative development of international trade and international logistics Strategies for promotion of the collaborative development of international trade and international logistics in China are as follows: 1. To vigorously promote the healthy development of the international logistics industry and the growth of effective demand; 2. To create a new environment for the international logistics industry that meets the collaborative development of One Belt and One Road ; 3. To support logistics enterprises to comprehensively connect with One Belt and One Road strategy well; 4. To give full play to the guiding and cultivating role of the government in the implementation of One Belt and One Road strategy; 5. To increase the strength of integration of regional logistics assets in the implementation of One Belt and One Road strategy; 6. To establish a collaborative service system for trade, logistics, finance and insurance in the implementation of One Belt and One Road strategy. Compared with the impact of international trade on international logistics, the impact of international logistics on international trade is relatively greater. On this basis, it is very necessary to research the impact of international logistics on international trade. 4 EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE Various factors of international logistics have different influences on the development of international trade. Gray correlation theory can be used to determine the most relevant factors for co-integration test and discuss the impact of international logistics on international trade. 4.1 Gray correlation theory Gray system theory is a new method used to research uncertain problems with less data and information. As a new modeling method, gray system theory is unique in dealing with the problem of time series, which can overcome a lot of deficiencies and quantitatively compare and describe the relationship between systems or the changes of various factors in the system over the time in the development process. If the change situation of two comparative series is basically the same, and the degree of synchronous changes is higher, their correlation degree is larger; on the contrary, their correlation degree is smaller. Accumulation and cumulative reduction theory of gray system theory is as follows. The original time series is recorded as: X (0) ={X (0) (1),X (0) (2),X (0) (3),...,X (0) (n)}; generate series: X (1) = {X (1) (1), X (1) (2),X (1) (3),...,X (1) (n)}. Accumulation: = (1) k (m) (m-1) X (k) X (i) i= 1 Cumulative reduction. A cumulative reduction formula is as follows: X (1) =X (0) (k)-x (0) (k-1) (2) 48

5 Before analyzing correlation degree, correlation number needs to be first calculated. Assuming: Y (0) (k) = {Y (0) (1),Y (0) (2),Y (0) (3),...,Y (0) (n)}, X (0 (k) = {X (0) (1),X (0) (2),X (0) (3),...,X (0) (n)}, the correlation coefficient: η( k) = + ρ (0) (0) (0) (0) min min Y (k)-x (k) max max Y (k)-x (k) (0) (0) (0) (0) Y (k)-x (k) + max max Y (k)-x (k) ρ (3) Note: Y (0) (k)-x (0) (k) is an absolute error of k-th point; min min Y (0) (k)-x (0) (k) is two-stage minimum difference; max max Y (0) (k)-x (0) (k) is two-stage maximum difference; ρ(0<ρ<1) is resolution, generally taking 0.5. Because the initial value of the time series is different, and the unit is not uniform, calculation must be initialized. Each data is divided by the first number to get a consistent series. Formula of solving correlation degree A by gray model: n 1 A = η(k) (4) n k= 1 Note: A is the correlation degree of X (0 (k) and Y (0) (k). 4.2 Selection of variables Through the introduction of gray correlation theory, with the data of a city in Zhejiang Province as the object of explanation, assuming that the total annual import and export volume is characteristic variable Y; explanatory variables X 1 = container throughput over the years; X 2 = cargo throughput over the years; X 3 = number of berth in a harbor over the years; X 4 = number of dedicated trucks over the years; X 5 = railway freight volume over the years; X 6 = highway freight volume over the years; X 7 = inland waterway freight volume over the years, the correlation degree is respectively A 1, A 2,A 3,A 4,A 5,A 6,A 7. Through gray correlation theory: A 1 = , A 2 = , A 3 = , A 4 = , A 5 = , A 6 = , A 7 = When ρ=0.5, A>0.6, all of the above correlation degree meet the requirements. Analysis results: A 1 <A 6 <A 5 <A 3 <A 7 <A 2 <A 4. Conclusion: the city s international logistics has a significant impact on international trade, of which the three logistics indicators with the highest correlation with the total volume of import and export trade are successively the number of dedicated trucks, cargo throughput and inland waterway freight volume. 4.3 Empirical analysis Data analysis According to the model analysis of the demand factors of international logistics and related factors, several key factors of international logistics are: the number of dedicated trucks, cargo throughput over the years and inland waterway freight volume over the years. On the other hand, the analysis is conducted by taking the data from 2005 to 2014 as an example, with the total volume of import and export trade as the status of the city s international trade. Since 2005, the city s international trade has had a sustainable development, and international logistics also has had a repaid development. To further demonstrate the continuity relation, icons are drawn by using EVIEWS software, in which Y represents the total volume of import and export trade, X 1 represents the number of dedicated trucks, X 2 represents the cargo throughput over the years; X 3 represents the inland waterway freight volume over the years. As can be seen from Figure 4-1, the direction and trend of the changes in three variables and dependent variables are basically the same, and their variation tendency presents a form of logarithmic transformation. Table 1. Data sheet of gray correlation theory analysis. Y X 1 X 2 X 3 X 4 X 5 X 6 X Figure 1. Variation trends from 2005 to Establishment of models Logarithmic transformation is conducted for indicators in Figure 1, taking lny, lnx 1, lnx 2, lnx 3, obtaining Figure 2. 49

6 2. Co-integration test According to the equation (5), co-integration analysis is conducted by using Eviews software, with the following result: Figure 2. Correlation of data in historical changes. According to Figure 2, a common logistic growth curve model describing economic growth is used to analyze the relationship between several variables. The model s theoretical equation is: LnY=aLnX 1 +blnx 2 +clnx 3 +β (5) Note: a, b, c, β are constants. For the model (5), first, false regression is avoided by the stationary test, and then the value of coefficient is obtained through the co-integration test. Considering the impact of various factors of international logistics on the international trade, the results are confirmed by Granger test. 1. Stationary test To avoid the phenomenon of false regression, before the establishment of the model, the stability of time series should be first tested. If variables are non-stationary, co-integration analysis can be conducted. Unit root test is conducted for lny, lnx 1, lnx 2, lnx 3 series respectively. Through observing the time series of the data, constant and trend terms should be included in ADF test. ADF test is conducted for the first-order differences of the original variables and variables respectively. The stationary test is conducted for four factors by Eviews software respectively, obtaining the following conclusions. Table 2. ADF test results. Variables ADF value Test type Critical Critical Conclusion (c k n) value 5% value 10% InY (c k l) Non-stationary InY (c k l) Non-stationary 2 InY (c k l) Stationary InX (c k l) Non-stationary InX (c k l) Non-stationary 2 InX (c k l) Stationary InX (c k l) Non-stationary InX (c k l) Stationary 2 InX (c k l) Stationary InX (c k l) Non-stationary InX (c k l) Stationary 2 InX (c k l) Stationary As can be seen from Table 2, the original variable series is non-stationary and the series after the second-order difference is stationary, that is, the above four series are second-order integration, lny~i(2), lnx 1 ~I(2), lnx 2 ~I(2), lnx 3 ~I(2). Therefore, there is a co-integration relationship between lny series and InX 1, InX 2, InX 3, and co-integration test can be conducted. Table 3. Co-integration test results. 1 Cointegrating Equation Log likelihood Normalized cointegrating coefficient (stand error in parentheses) InY C InX ( ) InX ( ) InX ( ) As can be seen from Table 3, equation after estimating the coefficients: LnY= InX InX InX (6) 3. Granger causality test After determining the coefficients of equation, Granger causality test is conducted for time series. The lag order of the variables selected in the following test is 1. Table 4. Granger test results. Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Data:10/30/10 Time:23:20 Sample Lags:1 Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob InX1 does not Granger Cause InY InY does not Granger Cause InX InX2 does not Granger Cause InY InY does not Granger Cause InX InX3 does not Granger Cause InY InY does not Granger Cause InX As can be seen from Table 4, lnx 1, lnx 2, lnx 3 are Granger causes of lny series changes. In the economic sense, the changes in the number of dedicated trucks, cargo throughput over the years and inland waterway freight volume over the years will result in the changes in international trade; in terms of coefficients, the growth of three factors will bring different changes in international trade Analysis of results The flexible mechanism of international logistics industry on international trade can be derived from formula (6) and demonstrated by formula (7). dy dx = > dy, dx = > dy, dx = > (7) 1 2 Formula (7) shows that three factors of international logistics have a positive impact on the development of international trade. X 1 represents the number of container trucks and its correlation coefficient with the total volume of import and export trade is 1.4, which shows that every change of 1 unit of container truck will lead to the change of 1.4 units of the volume of international trade, indicat- 3 50

7 ing that the increase in the number of container trucks has a significant impact on international trade, and the number of current container trucks is unable to meet the demand of international trade, and the number and operating efficiency of container trucks should be expanded and upgraded. X 2 represents the cargo throughput of the port, and its correlation coefficient with the total volume of import and export trade is 0.5, which shows that every change of 1 unit of cargo throughput of the port will lead to the change of 0.5 unit of the total volume of international trade. According to the data for port in recent ten years, bulk cargoes account for a large part of import and export throughput, in which all of bulk cargo transportation is not entirely from the quantity of city s import and export cargoes. In addition, the transportation volume of full container load is not entirely from the city s import and export. Considering from the other aspect, all of the operations handled by cargo throughput of the port is not from import and export goods. In addition, for the import and export cargoes undertaken by international logistics via air transport and other means, the value is higher. Finally, under the combined action of various factors, the port throughput and the total amount of import and export show a relationship displayed in the data, meanwhile, it also proves that the above-mentioned theory is in line with the reality. X 3 represents the inland waterway freight volume, and its correlation coefficient with the total volume of import and export trade is 0.14, proving that both correlation is not very strong. However, there is still a model that every change of 1 unit of inland waterway freight volume will lead to the actual change of 0.14 unit of the total volume of import and export trade. It is theoretically in line with the analysis results for the relationship between the inland waterway freight volume and the international trade in the city. To make full use of the waterway within the urban area, make classification based on the structure, nature and value of the cargoes and select waterway transport will have a positive impact on international trade. 5 CONCLUSION The development of international logistics is a requirement of world economic development and a guarantee for the completion of international trade activities, which has a stronger impetus to further development of economy. In an overall environment with gradually developed commodity economy, international logistics is the major growth point of the profit, and major compression part of the cost. With continuous enhancement of the status in economic development, the theoretical research on international logistics is also gradually increasing. Based on the perspectives of international trade and international logistics, this paper analyzes the correlation theories of international logistics and international trade, discusses the problems encountered in the collaborative development of international trade and international logistics, and puts forward solutions. Later, by taking data of a city in Zhejiang Province in the year of as an explanation basis, this paper selects gray correlation theory to conduct correlation analysis of the time series generated by several international logistics indicators and the total volume of import and export trade. Three factors with the highest correlation coefficient are the number of dedicated vehicles, import and export throughput and inland waterway freight volume. In order to further verify the theory proposed in this paper for the influencing mechanism of international logistics on international trade, this paper discusses the impact of various factors on international trade by co-integration analysis and Granger test, and analyzes the impact of various factors of international logistics on international trade, and reaches expected purpose. REFERENCES [1] S Y L Simple analysis on the establishment of international logistics system based on modern international trade. Market Modernization, (56):7-8. [2] J Li Research on international trade logistics of china under the strategic background of one belt and one road. Prices Monthly, (5): [3] Z F Wu The Influence of Development of International Logistics Industry to International Trade in Hunan Province. Changsha: Hunan University. [4] A H Song Development idea on China s logistics industry under strategic background of one belt and one road. 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