A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF MARKET SYSTEMS. in south central Somalia, north-eastern Kenya and southern Ethiopia

Transcription

1 A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF MARKET SYSTEMS in south central Somalia, north-eastern Kenya and southern Ethiopia The International Labour Organisation Somalia Programme 14 th March 2012

2 Imported goods market system: NORMAL PERIOD ACCESS ROADS TRADE LICENCING ACT WEIGHTS & MEASURES MICROFINANCE POLICY CUSTOMS DUTY CORRUPTION & CARTELS KEBS THE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT SECURITY SECURITY MARKET ACTORS CONSUMERS RETAILS WHOLESALERS DEALERS/ BROKERS DISTRIBUTORS WAREHOUSING & STORAGE IMPORTERS BUSINESS SERVICES PUBLIC HEALTH BANKING ROAD TRANSPORT MARKET INFORMATION LOANS INSURANCE PACKAGING CLEARING AND FORWARDING TECHNICAL EXTENSION 1 Imported goods market system: EMERGENCY PERIOD ACCESS ROADS TRADE LICENCING ACT WEIGHTS & MEASURES MICROFINANCE POLICY CUSTOMS DUTY CORRUPTION & CARTELS KEBS THE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT SECURITY SECURITY MARKET ACTORS CONSUMERS RETAILS WHOLESALERS DEALERS/ BROKERS DISTRIBUTORS WAREHOUSING & STORAGE IMPORTERS BUSINESS SERVICES PUBLIC HEALTH BANKING ROAD TRANSPORT MARKET INFORMATION LOANS INSURANCE PACKAGING CLEARING AND FORWARDING TECHNICAL EXTENSION 1

3 Monitored Markets (EMMA) Figure 1 (Sept 2011) Filtu Wajir Monitored Markets Adapted from: EMMA Survey Data. (PAC, 2012). Base map sourced from: FSNAU Monitored Markets Map.

4 Markets Where Items Sold (core commodities) Figure 2 (Sept 2011) Filtu Wajir 150 traders selling items 10 traders selling items Adapted from: EMMA Survey Data. (PAC, 2012). Base map sourced from: FSNAU Monitored Markets Map.

5 Markets Where Items Sourced (core commodities) Figure 3 (Sept 2011) Filtu Mogadishu Wajir 150 traders sourcing items 10 traders sourcing items Adapted from: EMMA Survey Data. (PAC, 2012). Base map sourced from: FSNAU Monitored Markets Map.

6 Figure 2 Markets Where Items Sold (core commodities) (Sept 2011) Filtu Wajir 150 traders selling items 10 traders selling items Figure 3 Markets Where Items Sourced (core commodities) Filtu Mogadishu Wajir 150 traders sourcing items 10 traders sourcing items 10 traders sourcing items Major routes Adapted from: EMMA Survey Data. (PAC, 2012). Base map sourced from: FSNAU Monitored Markets Map.

7 Main Trade Flows Figure 4 (Sept 2011) Filtu.. Trends - Mohadishu supplies imported commodities for much of the trade basin. - Markets are stronger than we think. -Trade between markets in Gedo and the Kenyan and Ethiopian borders function amidst drought and conflict. - Markets in Bay and Bakool receive a minor through-flow of goods from the border and are instead subservient to Mogadishu imports. Wajir. Domestic Cereals Livestock Imported Goods Major roads Direction of Trade. Key Market Centres Assembly, wholesale and retail Retail & wholesale Retail Wholesale Adapted from: EMMA Survey Data. (PAC, 2012). Base map sourced from: FSNAU Monitored Markets Map.

8 Figure 5 Flow of Imported Items to/from Mogadishu (Sept 2011) Trends -Two classifications of imported goods: those consumed in urban centres by higher earners (white rice and pasta), and those consumed across all income percentiles for which there are few domestically produced alternatives (sugar). - Reverse flows and backward linkages. - SIM cards representing the movement of currency? Mogadishu Soap Petrol Sugar Timber White rice Nails Pasta Oil Adapted from: EMMA Survey Data. (PAC, 2012). Bottled Water Cooking oil Milk Powder Tea Leaves Charcoal SIM Cards Air time Coconut Oil

9 Figure 6 Urban Areas Receiving IDPs (01 Dec Feb 2012) Belet Wayne Ceel Waaq Bardera Trends - Economic induced rural-urban migration - Urbanisation of market towns & urban centres. - Migrants not returning to pastoralism. - Underdevelopment of the urban system. - Urbanisation as an opportunity. Mogadishu Mogadishu Incorporating: Wadajir, Hodan, Dharkenley, Yaaqshiid and Hawl Wadaag Doobley 1000 IDPs 2000 IDPs Adapted from: Mogadishu Movements 1 Dec 2011 to date (UNHCR, 2012).

10 Figure 7 Points of Origin (01 Dec Feb 2012) Farlibaax Dolo, Eth. Belet Weyne Afgooye Dadaab Jilib Ceelasha Quracley 1000 IDPs 2000 IDPs Adapted from: Mogadishu Movements 1 Dec 2011 to date (UNHCR, 2012).

11 Figure 6 Urban Areas Receiving IDPs (01 Dec Feb 2012) Belet Wayne Trends - Economic induced rural-urban migration - Urbanisation of market towns & urban centres. - Migrants not returning to pastoralism. - Underdevelopment of the urban system. - Urbanisation as an opportunity. Ceel Waaq Bardera Mogadishu Mogadishu Incorporating: Wadajir, Hodan, Dharkenley, Yaaqshiid and Hawl Wadaag Doobley 1000 IDPs 2000 IDPs Figure 7 Points of Origin Farlibaax Dolo, Eth. Belet Weyne Afgooye Dadaab Jilib Ceelasha Quracley 1000 IDPs 2000 IDPs Adapted from: Mogadishu Movements 1 Dec 2011 to date (UNHCR, 2012).

12 Credit Problems & Opportunities Transport Energy Work ethic

13 We need to understand markets so we invest where it makes sense to do so. How do we make international trade benefit Somalis? How do we best empower people through employment creation? How do we work collectively to address problems and exploit opportunities?