Estimating the Cost of a Depot Level Mobile Maintenance. Capability

Transcription

1 Estimating the Cost of a Depot Level Mobile Maintenance Angela Lemke, USA AMCOM June 2009 Capability Special Thanks To: Stephen Cox, USA Wallace Willard, NASA Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. This determination was made on 01 April U.S. Army PEO Aviation, Aviation Systems, SFAE-AV-AS, RSA, AL

2 Purpose Describe the assumptions, methodology, and results of updating a life cycle cost estimate to include alternative acquisition scenarios Demonstrate analysis that was performed in order to refine requirements analysis and visually represent the system being estimated 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 2

3 Overview Mobile Maintenance Capability (MMC) requirements Original cost estimate Program changes Current alternatives 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 3

4 Program Overview Mobile Maintenance Capability Overview Modular, tailorable, and rapidly deployable Mobile Maintenance Capability 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 4

5 Maintenance Activities Depot level maintenance activities are to be performed in the shelters 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 5

6 MMC System Description (Notional) January 2007 For costing purposes, the notional MMC was assumed to consist of three sub-systems The Mobile Sustainment System (MSS) would be combined with either the Land Basing System (LBS) or Ship Basing System (SBS) to provide support capability The Mobile Sustainment System houses one full set of depot level maintenance equipment Development efforts and schedule for the three subsystems are interdependent Assume provided a no-cost vessel with 20 years remaining service life requiring modifications Twenty year system life (FY2013- FY2033) Mobile Sustainment System MMC Land Basing System Ship Basing System 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 6

7 MMC Schedule (Notional) January 2007 YR01 YR02 YR02 YR03 YR04 YR05 YR06 YR07 YR08 YR09 SYSTEM REQTS ANALYSIS LOGISTICS ANALYSIS MOBILE FACILITIES DESIGN MOBILE FACILITIES PROCUREMENT LAND BASING SYSTEM DESIGN LAND BASED SYSTEM I&T LAND BASING SYSTEM PROCUREMENT SHIP BASING SYSTEM DESIGN SHIP BASING SYSTEM SELECTION AND REFIT SHIP BASED SYSTEM I&T SHIP BASED SYSTEM SEA TRIALS MMC IOC 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 7

8 MMC Previous Estimate Original estimate formulated in three weeks in Dec 06/ 07 Required a manpower estimate and a Life Cycle Cost for MMC A picture of the notional effort was developed in Aviation Systems Used standard Army Cost Estimating Structure, parametric modeling, Maritime Administration (MARAD) and Marine data, MIT graduate work and commercial data sources to estimate cost and schedule for the development, limited test and fielding of (1) set of 300 Mobile Maintenance Facilities and 300 Mobile Storage Facilities, capable of deployment on ground and operating on-board ship. The estimate also incorporated the cost of modification and operations for a free ship Estimates were basis for original cost and schedule for design, prototyping and production of the notional hardware solution Limitations and possible alternatives to the free ship were researched and estimated Based to some extent on the size of the estimated program costs, the program was tailored to an Incremental type acquisition. Two sets of Mobile Maintenance Facilities and related Mobile Storage Facilities would be acquired, one in each phase of Increment 1. The modification and operation of the ship capability became Increment 2. Costs were revised to accommodate the Increments and Phasing. The reality of new start and the realism of funding realigned the schedule, necessary resources and costs to the right for a new program start in FY /31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 8

9 Assumptions & Constraints Mobile Sustainment System January 2007 One (1) set of Mobile Sustainment System assets. Assets consists of 300 Mobile Facilities, of 100 different designs, and the integration of those facilities with 300 Storage Containers. Cost of development of Mobile Sustainment System does not include the $58-68M cost of depot level maintenance equipment, which has been provided separately. Mobile Sustainment System is fully operational on board ship. 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 9

10 Mobile Facilities January 2007 Storage containers are assumed to be standard TEU containers w/o $2,500 (BY06) each. Assumed that 100 different type MMFs will be required, amounting to three per type. Assumed 70% of the required designs are existing within the Navy, 20% would be require modification, and 10% would be new designs. Because of low quantities and single set of assets, assumed limited prototyping of modified MMFs. Based on a standard 8 x8 x20 ISO shelter that is equipped with Environmental Control Unit, doors, electrical interface panels, lighting and electrical outlets, priced at $29,000 (BY06) and weighing 5,235 lbs each. Assumed modifications/ additions, not to include actual test equipment, are 1000 lbs. Modifications are assumed to be High Industrial/ Commercial/ Land Mobile quality. 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 10

11 Mobile Facilities January 2007 (cont) Existing designs will require production and integration. Assuming a 25% G&A/ Overhead factor, production of three units would be $786.2K. Average production cost is calculated at $262.1K each. Modified designs will require additional development as well as production and integration. New MMF designs will require development, production and integration. Development is estimated at $482.1K for each new design. Existing designs will require limited development as well as production and integration. Assuming a 25% G&A/ Overhead factor, development is estimated at $207.4K for each existing design. Production of three units would be $772.9K. Average production cost is calculated at $272.3K each. 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 11

12 Storage Containers January 2007 Literature suggests a national surplus of used containers, however, cost of shipping TEU containers within CONUS is significant, on the order of $900 each. Any refurbishment would add additional cost. It is likely that a free container would exceed $1,500 each. For cost purposes, it was assumed that storage containers are new, standard TEU containers w/o $2,500 (BY06) each. Storage containers represent a minor cost at (300 x $2,500) = $750K (BY06), plus Fee 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 12

13 Assumptions & Constraints Land Basing System January 2007 Land Basing System consists of power generation and distribution in support of the Mobile Sustainment System while operational during a ground deployment. Power requirements are estimated, based on T-AVB documentation, at 10kW per Mobile Facility. Assume (2) x 100kW Tactical $67K each, (1) 100kW backup generator per two generators, with a Power Distribution $117K per two generators, capable of switching and distributing output for twenty MMFs. For 300 MMFs, MMC would require 15 shipsets at $318K each, or $4,770K (BY2006). Additional infrastructure requirements, access stairways, would be required. Additional cable assemblies would be also be required. 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 13

14 Assumptions & Constraints Ship Basing System January 2007 Assume a used Cape Florida class of 33,000 LT Modifications are assumed to be at 10% of weight. Ten percent factor arrived at by examination of weight breakout of a similar ship, rough estimates of additions and modifications to include a dual spot flight deck, hangar facilities, and deck, berthing, and accommodation systems modifications. Used PRICE H as methodology for determination of ship modifications and integration costs. Cost Breakdown Structure simplified for determination of ship/ modification/ mobile facilities costs. Includes three types each of existing, modified, and new mobile facilities in an attempt to capture complexity. Change orders are estimated to be 16% (CBO Report Transforming the Navy s Surface Combatant Force) 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 14

15 Ship Modification Cost Reference - January 2007 Reference Intermediate Transfer Ship Conversion, Johnson, LaPointe, Mosman, MIT Ocean Engineering Graduate Program, 2005 Ship size and type and size of modifications are similar to proposed MMC modifications. Differences in the size of the flight deck and configuration for RO-RO stock vs. TEU space. Similarities in the addition of the personnel accommodations, related system upgrades, cargo handling and work space. Making some accommodations, ROM for ship basing modifications using ITS estimated costs is between $83.3M and $142.8M (BY2006). Current parametric estimate using PRICE H is $52.0M (modifications) + $36.1M (MMF integration) for a total of $86.1M (BY2006). 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 15

16 Estimating Ship Mods/ MMF/ Integration Costs Using PRICE-H Parametric Cost Model - January 2007 Presented at the 2009 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference and Training Workshop - MMC MMC 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 16

17 Ship Modification Cost Reference 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 17

18 Cross Check Ship Basing System ROM ROM for for Ship Ship Basing Basing System System using using the the ITS ITS Conversion Conversion Estimate Estimate Containership Containership $ $ 0.0M 0.0M (Assuming (Assuming No-Cost No-Cost Vessel) Vessel) Flight Flight Deck* Deck* $16.7 $16.7 $25.0M $25.0M (ITS (ITS Flight Flight Deck Deck is is ft ft Long Long by by ft, ft, assume assume ft ft x ft ft flight flight deck deck at at 1/3) 1/3) Misc. Misc. Systems Systems Upgrades Upgrades $50.0-$100.0M $50.0-$100.0M (While (While differing differing in in composition, composition, similar similar in in magnitude. magnitude. Will Will require require power power distribution, distribution, deck deck mods, mods, storage storage access, access, A/C A/C hangar hangar facility, facility, cargo cargo handling handling vehicles, vehicles, maintenance maintenance personnel personnel berthing, berthing, mess mess and and sanitation sanitation modifications) modifications) R & D $ M $ M (Assumed (Assumed to to be be similar similar in in magnitude) magnitude) Total Total (BY2005) (BY2005) $71.7 $ $140.0M $140.0M Total Total (BY2006) (BY2006) $73.3 $ $142.8M $142.8M 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 18

19 Current Program Activities Type 1 BCA is being developed Collaboration with the customer and wholesale inventory manager What-if drills What if you had $X? Visual simulation Update cost model to reflect current alternative approaches 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 19

20 Assumptions and Constraints Alternatives The team has coordinated with customer and wholesale inventory manager to perform an analysis to more closely estimate the actual number of containers needed Analysis has determined that 100 operational containers is a viable alternative to the original requirement of 300 The customer has purchased 65 containers and they are currently operational Development, production, and operational schedule has slipped at least two years 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 20

21 Model ISO Container using Google Sketchup 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 21

22 Representative Village in Google Earth 300 Operational and 300 Storage Containers 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 22

23 Location: Redstone Arsenal 300 Operational and 300 Storage Containers 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 23

24 Visual Representation of a Mobile Maintenance Capability in a Forest Terrain Location in Northern Canada 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 24

25 Visual Representation of a Mobile Maintenance Capability in a Desert Terrain Location Near The Grand Canyon 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 25

26 Aircraft Maintenance Description 3-D Representation MMC Hardware Description ITEM QTY TOTAL SQ FT NOTES TITLE MMC Manpower GRADE POSCO Authorized 60 HZ Power Requirements 400 HZ 1 PHASE 3 PHASE DC MMC Prime Equipment LIN EQUIPMENT QTY TOTAL SQ FT 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 26

27 Arena Simulation Integration Current Capability Potential Capability 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 27

28 Arena Simulation Integration Current Capability Potential Capability c361f27fc9a24e &prevstart=0 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 28

29 MMC Schedule (Notional) March 2009 YR01 YR02 YR03 YR04 YR05 YR06 YR07 YR08 YR09 YR10 SYSTEM REQTS ANALYSIS LOGISTICS ANALYSIS MOBILE FACILITIES DESIGN MOBILE FACILITIES PROCUREMENT LAND BASING SYSTEM DESIGN LAND BASED SYSTEM I&T Systems Requirements Analysis and Logistics Analysis were redistributed Design activities will begin no earlier than 2011 LAND BASING SYSTEM PROCUREMENT SHIP BASING SYSTEM DESIGN SHIP BASING SYSTEM SELECTION AND REFIT SHIP BASED SYSTEM I&T SHIP BASED SYSTEM SEA TRIALS MMC IOC 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 29

30 ARMY TASM-C RDT&E FUNDED ELEMENTS DEVELOPMENT ENGINEERING MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM MOBILE FACILITIES EXISTING MOBILE FACILITIES MODIFIED MOBILE FACILITIES NEW MOBILE FACILITIES STORAGE FACILITY SHIP SYSTEM LAND SYSTEM TACTICAL POWER GENERATORS POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM LAND SYSTEM I&T PROD ENG AND PLAN (PEP) DEVELOPMENT TOOLING PROTOTYPE MANUFACTURING MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM MOBILE FACILITIES [1/3 OF TOTAL] MOBILE FACILITIES - PROTOTYPES EXISTING MOBILE FACILITIES MODIFIED MOBILE FACILITIES NEW MOBILE FACILITIES MOBILE FACILITIES - EXISTING DESIGN PROCUREMENT EXISTING MOBILE FACILITIES MODIFIED MOBILE FACILITIES NEW MOBILE FACILITIES STORAGE FACILITY AVCRAD EQUIPMENT PROCUREMENT SHIP SYSTEM LAND SYSTEM TACTICAL POWER GENERATORS POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM LAND SYSTEM I&T SYSTEMS ENGINEERING/MGMT PROJ MGT ADM(PM Civ/Mil) ARMY PM DEPUTY PM PROGRAM INTEGRATOR LOGISTICS LOGISTICS TEAM LEAD / DEPUTY PM LOGISTICS PERSONNEL TECHNICAL TECHNICAL TEAM LEAD TECHNICAL PERSONNEL BUSINESS BUSINESS CHIEF BUSINESS PERSONNEL OGA NAVY OTHER SYSTEMS TEST AND EVAL MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM LAND SYSTEM LAND SYSTEM ST&E LAND SYSTEM OT SHIP SYSTEM SHIP SYSTEM ST&E SHIP SYSTEM SEA TRIALS TRAINING DATA AOA STUDY SUPPORT EQUIPMENT DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt FIELDING 30 OTHER RDT&E MMC Cost Element Structure Army Standard CES OM FUNDED ELEMENTS FIELD MAINT CIV LABOR SYSTEM SPECIFIC BASE OPS SHIP SYSTEM MC FUNDED ELEMENTS ANNUAL OPERATION COST MP DIRECT FUNDED ELEMENTS ANNUAL DEPLOYMENT COST CREW REPL SPARES (REPARABLES) MAINTENANCE (MTOE) MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM AVCRAD EQUIPMENT MOBILE FACILITIES SHIP SYSTEM STORAGE FACILITY SHIP SYSTEM LAND SYSTEM LAND SYSTEM REPL REPAIR PARTS (CONS) TACTICAL POWER GENERATORS MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM SHIP SYSTEM SYSTEM SPECIFIC SUPPORT LAND SYSTEM SYSTEMS ENGINEERING/MGMT PETRO, OIL AND LUB (POL) PROJ MGT ADMIN (PM Mil) END ITEM SUPPLY & MAINT OTHER OVERHAUL (P7M) REPLACEMENT PERSONNEL OTHER MP MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM MOBILE FACILITIES STORAGE FACILITY AVCRAD EQUIPMENT [RESET] SHIP SYSTEM LAND SYSTEM TACTICAL POWER GENERATORS POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM INTEG MATERIEL MAINT SUPPLY DEPOT SUPPORT INDUSTRIAL READINESS DEMILITARIZATION MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM SHIP SYSTEM TRANSPORTATION SOFTWARE SYSTEM TEST AND EVAL, OPER SYSTEMS ENGINEERING/MGMT PROJ MGMT ADMIN (PM Civ) ARMY PM DEPUTY PM PROGRAM INTEGRATOR LOGISTICS LOGISTICS TEAM LEAD / DEPUTY PM LOGISTICS PERSONNEL TECHNICAL TECHNICAL TEAM LEAD TECHNICAL PERSONNEL BUSINESS BUSINESS CHIEF BUSINESS PERSONNEL OGA NAVY OTHER TRAINING OTHER OM ARMY WORKING CAPITAL FUND (AWCF) ELEMENT PROCUREMENT FUNDED ELEMENTS NON-RECURRING PROD RECURRING PRODUCTION MANUFACTURING MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM MOBILE FACILITIES EXISTING MOBILE FACILITIES MODIFIED MOBILE FACILITIES NEW MOBILE FACILITIES STORAGE FACILITY AVCRAD EQUIPMENT PROCUREMENT SHIP SYSTEM SHIP BASING SYSTEM MODIFICATION SHIP SYSTEM I&T SHIP OPERATIONAL COST DURING REFIT LAND SYSTEM TACTICAL POWER GENERATORS POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM LAND BASING SYSTEM I&T RECURRING ENGINEERING MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM MOBILE FACILITIES EXISTING MOBILE FACILITIES MODIFIED MOBILE FACILITIES NEW MOBILE FACILITIES STORAGE FACILITY AVCRAD EQUIPMENT SHIP SYSTEM SHIP BASING SYSTEM MODIFICATION SHIP SYSTEM I&T SUSTAINING TOOLING QUALITY CONTROL OTHER RECURRING PROD ENGINEERING CHANGES MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM MOBILE FACILITIES EXISTING MOBILE FACILITIES MODIFIED MOBILE FACILITIES NEW MOBILE FACILITIES STORAGE FACILITY AVCRAD EQUIPMENT PROCUREMENT SHIP SYSTEM SHIP BASING SYSTEM MODIFICATION SHIP SYSTEM I&T LAND SYSTEM TACTICAL POWER GENERATORS POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM LAND BASING SYSTEM I&T SYSTEMS ENGINEERING/MGMT PROJ MGT ADM(PM Civ/Mil) ARMY PM DEPUTY PM PROGRAM INTEGRATOR LOGISTICS LOGISTICS TEAM LEAD / DEPUTY PM LOGISTICS PERSONNEL TECHNICAL TECHNICAL TEAM LEAD TECHNICAL PERSONNEL BUSINESS BUSINESS CHIEF BUSINESS PERSONNEL OGA NAVY OTHER SYSTEMS TEST AND EVAL LAND SYSTEM SHIP SYSTEM TRAINING DATA SUPPORT EQUIPMENT OPERAT/SITE ACTIVATION INITIAL SPARES (REPRBLES)

31 Modifications to Model Added Cases to ACEIT model Alternative containers and Alternative 35 containers Schedule slip MMF, LBS, and SBS design to 2011 slip MMF procurement to 2011 slip LBS I&T and procurement to 2012 systems requirements analysis updated to 10% in FY2008, 10% in FY2009, 80% in FY2010 logistics analysis updated to 10% in FY2008, 10% in FY2009, 40% in FY2010, 40% in FY2011 Updated government personnel salaries with 2009 OPM rates, manpower analysis Updated military personnel salaries with 2009 AMCOS data Added contractor support to PM for efforts during Moved manpower throughputs two years to the right to align with schedule slip Updated maintenance equipment reset factor Updated inflation indices to FY2009 indices 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 31

32 Alternative 100 Containers Schedule Schedule moved two years to the right Some systems requirements analysis and logistics analysis were performed in 2008 and 2009 First year of design and procurement effort is now 2011 Cost Element Approp Total FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 * EFFORT SCHEDULE PERCENTAGES BY YEAR SYSTEM REQTS ANALYSIS LOGISTICS ANALYSIS MOBILE FACILITIES DESIGN MOBILE FACILITIES PROCUREMENT LAND BASED SYSTEM I&T LAND BASING SYSTEM DESIGN LAND BASING SYSTEM PROCUREMENT LAND BASING SYSTEM OT 1 1 SHIP BASING SYSTEM DESIGN SHIP BASING SYSTEM SELECTION AND REFIT SHIP BASED SYSTEM I&T SHIP BASED SYSTEM SEA TRIALS /31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 32

33 Civilian Salary Update Analysis Civilian Salaries were updated to current 2009 rates Original methodology used OPM salary tables, applied an escalation factor for events such as step increases and cost of living increases, and applied an overhead factor for FERS employees Analysis was performed to compare AMCOS rates to calculation using OPM salary tables WBS/CES Description * 2007 SALARY TABLE AND ESCALATION Fiscal Year Units base (2006) base + burden rate FERS GS-12 STEP $ $ 72, $ 101, GS-13 STEP $ $ 86, $ 120, GS-14 STEP $ $ 101, $ 142, GS-15 STEP $ $ 119, $ 167, SALARY TABLE OPM Fiscal Year Units base (2009) base + burden rate FERS convert to 2006 $ GS-12 Step $ $ 76, $ 106, $ 97, GS-13 Step $ $ 91, $ 127, $ 115, GS-14 Step $ $ 107, $ 150, $ 136, GS-15 Step $ $ 126, $ 176, $ 161, WBS/CES Description * 2009 SALARY TABLE AND ESCALATION Fiscal Year Units base burdened AMCOS convert to 2006 $ GS-12 AMCOS AVERAGE 2009 $ $67, $ 99, $ 90, GS-13 AMCOS AVERAGE 2009 $ $81, $ 119, $ 108, GS-14 AMCOS AVERAGE 2009 $ $97, $ 143, $ 130, GS-15 AMCOS AVERAGE 2009 $ $115, $ 169, $ 154, /31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 33

34 40 35 Summary Government/ Support Personnel MMC January 2007 Civilian PM cost is 0. Assume Military PM, costed out in MPA PM DEPUTY PM PROGRAM INTEGRATOR LOGISTICS TECHNICAL BUSINESS Assume (1) each Deputy PM, Program Integrator and Technical/ Logistics/ Business Chiefs for a total of (5). Government Technical/ Logistics based on ratio to Contractor Effort for RDTE and PROC. For OMA, estimated based on ratio of number of fielded MMFs. 5 0 SUNK Prior SUNK PY 2006 CY 2007 BUDGET BY BUDGET BY POM FY 2010 POM FY 2011 POM FY 2012 POM FY 2013 POM FY 2014 POM FY 2015 Business Contracting staff loading based on constant requirements as well as ratios to estimated number of contracts. PAs are estimated based on number of appropriations required. Cost is based on a ratio to PA and Contracting. Cost Element SUNK Prior SUNK PY 2006 CY 2007 BUDGET BY BUDGET BY POM FY 2010 POM FY 2011 POM FY 2012 POM FY 2013 POM FY 2014 POM FY 2015 To Complete TOTAL GOVERNMENT PERSONNEL TOTAL PM PM DEPUTY PM PROGRAM INTEGRATOR LOGISTICS LOGISTICS CHIEF LOGISTICS PERSONNEL TECHNICAL TECHNICAL CHIEF TECHNICAL PERSONNEL BUSINESS BUSINESS CHIEF BUSINESS PERSONNEL /31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 34

35 Summary Government/ Support Personnel MMC March 2009 Man Years FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 GOVERNMENT PERSONNEL TOTAL PM DEPUTY PM PROGRAM INTEGRATOR LOGISTICS TECHNICAL BUSINESS FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 FY 2031 FY 2032 FY 2033 FY 2034 Civilian PM cost is 0. Assume Military PM, costed out in MPA. Assume (1) each Deputy PM, Program Integrator and Technical/ Logistics/ Business Chiefs for a total of (5). Government Technical/ Logistics based on ratio to Contractor Effort for RDTE and PROC. For OMA, estimated based on ratio of number of fielded MMFs. Business Contracting staff loading based on constant requirements as well as ratios to estimated number of contracts. PAs are estimated based on number of appropriations required. Cost is based on a ratio to PA and Contracting. FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 GOVERNMENT PERSONNEL TOTAL PM DEPUTY PM PROGRAM INTEGRATOR LOGISTICS TECHNICAL BUSINESS /31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 35

36 Alternatives and What-if Drills ACE Inputs Results Viewer 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 36

37 Current Model Five Cases 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 37

38 Case Statements Case Equations used to define specific values per case 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 38

39 $ Case: Ship with Sufficient Life (Baseline) Subsystem Breakout (TY $M) Mobile Sustainment System Ship Based System Land Based System Unmapped Total $ $ $ $ $ Then Year Dollars in Millions (TY $M) $50.00 $0.00 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028 FY 2029 FY 2030 FY 2031 FY 2032 FY 2033 FY 2034 FY 2035 FY 2036 Fiscal Year 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 39

40 Case: Alternative 100 Containers Subsystem Breakout (TY $M) Alt_Case_100_Containers Summary of Subsystem for ARMY MMC $120.0 $100.0 $80.0 TY $M $60.0 $40.0 Unmapped LBS SBS MSS $20.0 $ /31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 40

41 Case: Alternative 35 Containers Subsystem Breakout (TY $M) Alt_Case_35_Containers Summary of Subsystem for ARMY MMC $90.0 $80.0 $70.0 $60.0 TY $M $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 Unmapped LBS SBS MSS $20.0 $10.0 $ /31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 41

42 Cost Drivers, Alternative Case 100 Containers Alt_Case_100_Containers ARMY MMC WBS, Filtered by Appropriation AVCRAD MAINTEQUIPMENT [RESET] AVCRAD MAINTEQUIPMENT MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM TRAINING AVCRAD MAINTEQUIPMENT PROCUREMENT LOGISTICS PERSONNEL EXISTING MOBILE FACILITIES MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM PETRO, OIL AND LUB (POL) STORAGE FACILITY MOBILE FACILITIES TECHNICAL PERSONNEL BUSINESS PERSONNEL EXISTING MOBILE FACILITIES NEW MOBILE FACILITIES MODIFIED MOBILE FACILITIES BUSINESS PERSONNEL PM LAND SYSTEM LAND SYSTEM Funding in TY $M WBS, Filtered by Appropriation Appropriation00_Containers % of Total ARMY MMC $ AVCRAD MAINTEQUIPMENT [RESET] OMA $ % AVCRAD MAINTEQUIPMENT OMA $ % MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM OMA $ % TRAINING OMA $ % AVCRAD EQUIPMENT PROCUREMENT APA $ % LOGISTICS PERSONNEL OMA $ % EXISTING MOBILE FACILITIES APA $ % MOBILE SUSTAINMENT SYSTEM OMA $ % PETRO, OIL AND LUB (POL) OMA $ % STORAGE FACILITY MPA $ % MOBILE FACILITIES MPA $ % TECHNICAL PERSONNEL OMA $ % BUSINESS PERSONNEL OMA $ % EXISTING MOBILE FACILITIES RDTEA $ % NEW MOBILE FACILITIES APA $ % MODIFIED MOBILE FACILITIES APA $ % BUSINESS PERSONNEL RDTEA $ % PM OMA $ % LAND SYSTEM OMA $ % LAND SYSTEM OMA $ % $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 TY $M 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 42

43 Summary By Appropriation (TY $M) MMC January 2007 RDTEA APA OPA MPA OMA Total: Development costs for all three subsystems were assumed to be RDTEA Mobile Sustainment System procurement costs were assumed to be APA Land Based System procurement costs were assumed to be OPA Ship Based System modification costs were assumed to be OPA SUNK Prior SUNK PY 2006 CY 2007 BUDGET BY BUDGET BY POM FY 2010 POM FY 2011 POM FY 2012 POM FY 2013 POM FY 2014 POM FY 2015 WBS/Item SUNK PY BUDGET BY1 BUDGET BY2 To Number Prior 2006 CY POM FY 2010 POM FY 2011 POM FY 2012 POM FY 2013 POM FY 2014 POM FY 2015 Complete TOTAL *TASM-C RDTEA $1.80 $4.50 $41.90 $41.40 $2.50 $18.40 $5.70 $0.30 $0.30 $0.20 $ APA $0.30 $17.10 $84.60 $70.80 $4.40 $2.10 $ OPA $23.50 $44.10 $45.70 $7.10 $ MPA $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $1.70 $1.80 $1.80 $46.60 $53.00 OMA $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $27.50 $31.40 $32.10 $ $ Total: $1.80 $5.00 $59.20 $ $ $68.90 $44.10 $33.40 $34.30 $ $1, /31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 43

44 $ $ $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 Summary By Appropriation (TY $M) MMC March 2009 RDTEA APA OPA MPA OMA Total: Development costs for all three subsystems were assumed to be RDTEA Mobile Sustainment System procurement costs were assumed to be APA Land Based System procurement costs were assumed to be OPA Ship Based System modification costs were assumed to be OPA $20.00 $0.00 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Cost Element FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 To Complete Total RDTEA $0.30 $0.30 $2.60 $25.90 $38.50 $6.60 $2.00 $2.60 $1.50 $80.30 APA $0.10 $0.10 $0.20 $44.50 $72.60 $28.50 $3.10 $2.10 $4.80 $ OPA $1.30 $1.90 $0.00 $3.20 MPA $1.60 $45.90 $47.50 OMA $21.00 $ $ Total: $0.40 $0.40 $2.80 $ $ $37.00 $5.00 $27.20 $ $ /31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 44

45 Summary By Appropriation MMC Alternative 100 Containers Alt_Case_100_Containers Second Level of Visibility for ARMY MMC RDT&E FUNDED ELEMENTS PROCUREMENT FUNDED ELEMENTS MC FUNDED ELEMENTS MP DIRECT FUNDED ELEMENTS OM FUNDED ELEMENTS ARMY WORKING CAPITAL FUND (AWCF) ELEMENT 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 45

46 Case Comparison ARMY MMC $350.0 $300.0 $250.0 Alt_Case_100_Containers TY $M $200.0 $150.0 $100.0 $50.0 $ Alt_Case_35_Containers INCR 1 MSS & LBS INCR 3 OPT 1 [CASE SHIP WITH SUFFICIENT LIFE] INCR 3 OPT 2 [CASE NEW SHIP] 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 46

47 Summary MMC life cycle cost estimate has evolved since 2007 to include multiple alternatives Visual simulation has been performed in support of requirements analysis 03/31/2009 Lemke_Estimating_the_Cost_of_a_Mobile_Maintenance_Capability_ _0833.ppt 47