Using Simulation for Optimization

Transcription

1 Using Simulation for Optimization Jay Reyes Jeff Balfoort Ken Grubb Ray Miller Knowledge Retention Sharing why we do what we do November 3, 2010

2 Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements and projections, made in reliance on the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of The companies have made every reasonable effort to ensure that the information and assumptions on which these statements and projections are based are current, reasonable, and complete. However, a variety of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the projections, anticipated results or other expectations expressed in this presentation, including, without limitation, our ability to successfully contract, build and operate the pipeline projects described in this presentation; changes in supply of natural gas; general economic and weather conditions in geographic regions or markets served by the companies or their affiliates, or where operations of the companies and their affiliates are located; the uncertainties associated with governmental regulation; competition, and other factors described in the companies (and its affiliates ) Securities and Exchange Commission filings. While the companies make these statements and projections in good faith, neither the companies nor their management can guarantee that anticipated future results will be achieved. Reference must be made to those filings for additional important factors that may affect actual results. The companies assume no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements made herein or any other forward-looking statements made by the companies, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. 2

3 Using Simulation for Optimization Design Optimization Operational Optimization Tools Available 3

4 Design Optimization Sale-ability Construct-ability Profit-ability Maintain-ability Reli-ability 4

5 Design Optimization Sale-ability Marketers have to be able to sell the design Needs to meet market needs Required delivery pressures Required receipt pressures Minimize fuel consumption Volumetric swing requirements Needs to access prescribed receipt and delivery locations How will the pipeline recover electric costs on electric HP? Pipeline capacity will be utilized if collected as fuel in kind (FIK) If gas/spark spread diverges, risk of either under collecting or not having enough pipeline capacity to move FIK to the end of the system 5

6 Design Optimization Construct-ability Initial conceptual design should minimize difficult construction Close planning with Construction and Project Management personnel to identify best initial routing option which ultimately sets length of pipeline Compressor station spacing and siting 6

7 Design Optimization Maintain-ability Perform Life Cycle Analysis on various horsepower options to determine best selection Initial capital investment 20 year O&M costs Operational fluids Mechanical parts Facility power costs Maintenance labor/contract costs 20 year capital requirements Overhauls Fuel consumption Compare alternatives using Net Present Value calculation Analyze value of internal coating vs. fuel consumption Analyze value/impact of compressor station spacing vs. gas cooling (NPV) 7

8 Design Optimization Reli-ability With reservation crediting being the norm, consider reliability of hp and other critical design components Consider future short term outages associated with manufacturer recommended maintenance or best practices Consider future long term outages associated with manufacturer recommended major overhaul schedules Consider electric grid reliability for electric HP Consider future outages related to mandatory in-line inspections and/or hydrotests 8

9 Operational Optimization Safety and Compliance Pipeline Efficiency System Efficiency Station Efficiency Unit Efficiency 9

10 Operational Optimization Safety and Compliance MAOPs are appropriate Class location restrictions MOP limitations Posted capacity documentation (Electronic Bulletin Board) Assumptions documented? Contract volumes/pathing Pipe roughnesses/efficiencies Pressure drops at compressor stations Driver and compressor efficiencies Ground temperatures/ gas flowing temperatures Heat transfer coefficients if using temp tracking 10

11 Operational Optimization Pipeline Efficiency Pipe roughness/efficiency Identification of closed valves in reticulated or multi-line system Fluid accumulation Justification of expenditures related to maintenance pigging to increase efficiency Reduction of fuel consumption? Increase in transportation capacity? 11

12 Operational Optimization System Efficiency Best mix of compressor stations Timing of hp starts and stops Effective utilization of gas storage 12

13 Operational Optimization Station Efficiency Best hp mix operating Inadvertent station re-cycle Emissions limitations 13

14 Operational Optimization Unit Efficiency HP observed is reasonable Emissions limitations Understand effects of operational limitations of individual units (HP is not always 100% healthy) RPM Limits Pocket/End configurations Centrifugal compressor operating envelope 14

15 Available Tools Static Model Transient Model Real time Model Training Model Predictive Model 15

16 Available Tools Static Model Comprises very high % of all simulations Used for initial steady state designs and contractual capacity analysis Use for snapshot analysis 16

17 Available Tools Transient Model 2 nd to Static Model in terms of utilization Analysis of non-ratable receipts or deliveries Power plant loads LDC loads Movement of line pack 17

18 Available Tools Real time Model Coupling of transient model to real time data Observe inefficiencies Aids in tuning other models Fairly labor intensive to maintain Requires accurate and real time pipeline configuration (outages need to be up to date) Requires accurate and real time station configuration (outages need to be up to date) 18

19 Available Tools Training Model Coupling of transient model to feedback loop to simulate actual operation of system 19

20 Available Tools Predictive Model Coupling of real time model and data trends to anticipate future operation 20

21 Using Simulation for Optimization Thank you Jay Reyes, Southern Union Gas Jeff Balfoort, Southern Union Gas Ken Grubb, Kinder Morgan Ray Miller, Kinder Morgan November 3 rd, 2010