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1 Research Report KTC-10-16/FR F KENTUCKY TRANSPORTATION CENTER KENNEDY INTERCHANGE CRASH STUDY

2 OUR MISSION We provide services to the transportation community through research, technology transfer and education. We create and participate in partnerships to promote safe and effective transportation systems. OUR VALUES Teamwork Listening and communicating along with courtesy and respect for others. Honesty and Ethical Behavior Delivering the highest quality products and services. Continuous Improvement In all that we do.

3 Research Report KTC-10-17/FR F KENNEDY INTERCHANGE CRASH STUDY by Eric R. Green, P.E. Kenneth R. Agent, P.E. Jerry G. Pigman, P.E Kentucky Transportation Center College of Engineering University of Kentucky Lexington, Kentucky in cooperation with Kentucky Transportation Cabinet Commonwealth of Kentucky The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors who are responsible for the facts and accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views of policies of the University of Kentucky or the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet. This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. The inclusion of manufacturer names and trade names is for identification purposes and is not to be considered an endorsement. November 2010

4 1. Report Number KTC-10-17/FR F 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient s Catalog No. 4. Title and Subtitle Kennedy Interchange Crash Study 5. Report Date November Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) E.R. Green, K.R. Agent, and J.G. Pigman 9. Performing Organization Name and Address Kentucky Transportation Center College of Engineering University of Kentucky Lexington, Kentucky Sponsoring Agency Name and Address Kentucky Transportation Cabinet 200 Mero Street Frankfort, Kentucky Performing Organization Report No. KTC-10-17/FR F 10. Work Unit No. 11. Contract or Grant No. FR Type of Report and Period Covered Final 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 15. Supplementary Notes Prepared in cooperation with the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet and the Federal Highway Administration 16. Abstract The Louisville-Southern Indiana Ohio River Bridges project is a construction and reconstruction project being undertaken to address long-term transportation needs in the Louisville metropolitan area. Partial justification for construction of the new downtown bridge and reconstruction of the Kennedy Interchange is the existing safety issues and the potential for improved safety. Crash rates for the interchange area have not been fully documented to establish the existing level of safety and degree of the problem relative to state and national statistics. The objective of this study was to analyze and evaluate crash data for the Kennedy Interchange area of Louisville and southern Indiana. The analysis included three interstate corridors in Louisville-Jefferson County, Kentucky ( Kennedy Interchange corridors ) and three similar corridors in Louisville-Jefferson County and Floyd and Clark Counties in Indiana ( adjacent corridors ). Results from the analysis included the following: The sections of interstate representing the Kennedy Interchange corridors have a high total and injury crash rate as compared to statewide urban interstate crash rates. The resulting Critical Rate Factor (CRF) was approximately 2.0 for total crashes and injury crashes. The fatal crash rate for the Kennedy Interchange corridors is slightly higher than national rates and is greater than the statewide average; however, the CRF is less than 1.0. Overall, the crash rates for the Kennedy Interchange corridors are higher than the crash rates for the adjacent corridors. Results indicated that there were substantial costs associated with crashes in the two analysis areas. 17. Key Words Highway Safety Crash Analysis Urban Interstates Critical Rate Factor GPS Crash Location 18. Distribution Statement Unlimited, with approval of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet 19. Security Classification (report) Unclassified 20. Security Classification (this page) Unclassified 21. No. of Pages Price

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Executive Summary... i 1.0 Introduction and Background Analysis Corridors Crash Data Analysis Crash Cost Analysis Summary and Conclusions... 16

6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Louisville-Southern Indiana Ohio River Bridges project is a construction and reconstruction project being undertaken jointly by the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet (KYTC) and the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT). The purpose of the project is to address long-term transportation needs in the Louisville metropolitan area with construction of two new bridges and reconstruction of the Kennedy Interchange (I-64, I-65 and I-71) in downtown Louisville. Partial justification for construction of the new downtown bridge and reconstruction of the Kennedy Interchange is the existing safety issues and the potential for improved safety. Crash rates for the interchange area have not been fully documented to establish the existing level of safety and degree of the problem relative to state and national statistics. The objective of this study was to analyze and evaluate crash data for the Kennedy Interchange area of Louisville and sections of I-64 and I-65 in southern Indiana. Crash data for the period 2005 through 2009 were analyzed to determine the frequency and severity of crashes. Analysis was performed using GPS location information for crashes, as a supplement to the traditional mile-point location analysis. Crash rates were compared with state and national rates, where available. The analysis included three interstate corridors in Louisville-Jefferson County, Kentucky ( Kennedy Interchange corridors ) and three similar corridors in Louisville-Jefferson County and Floyd and Clark Counties in Indiana ( adjacent corridors ). Additionally, crash density plots of Equivalent Property Damage Only (EPDO) crashes were created for both study corridors to represent the crash data visually and locate hot spots. Results from the analysis included the following: The sections of interstate representing the Kennedy Interchange corridors have a high total and injury crash rate as compared to statewide urban interstate crash rates. The resulting Critical Rate Factor (CRF) was approximately 2.0 for total crashes and injury crashes. The fatal crash rate for the Kennedy Interchange corridors is greater than the statewide average; however, the CRF is less than 1.0. Overall, the crash rates for the Kennedy Interchange corridors are higher than the crash rates for the adjacent corridors. When compared to national fatal crash rates, those for the Kennedy Interchange corridors were slightly higher and those for the adjacent corridors were lower. The two analysis areas ( Kennedy Interchange corridors and adjacent corridors ) have fairly comparable roadway characteristics; both are urban interstate systems with access control. The traffic volumes (AADT) are similar (70,000 in the adjacent corridors compared to 90,000 in the Kennedy Interchange corridors ). The Kennedy Interchange corridors are most different from the adjacent corridors in their interchange complexity. This creates more conflict points, driver decisions, and driver confusion; with the resultant higher overall crash rates. Consequently, more crashes increase the likelihood for more injuries, resulting in a higher injury rate. This increase is less likely for fatal crashes due to the traffic characteristics for urban interstates and the random nature of fatal crashes. Results indicated that there were substantial costs associated with crashes in the two analysis areas and the overall costs were relatively similar. For the Kennedy Interchange corridors, the annual economic costs for the 2005 through 2009 time period were calculated to be $6,898,980 and the annual comprehensive costs were estimated to be $17,338, 760. i

7 1.0 Introduction and Background The Louisville-Southern Indiana Ohio River Bridges project is a construction and reconstruction project being undertaken jointly by the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet (KYTC) and the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT). The purpose of the project is to address long-term transportation needs in the Louisville metropolitan area. In September 2003, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) issued a Record of Decision that identified the preferred alternative in the Final Environmental Impact Statement as the selected alternative for providing two new Ohio River bridges and connected approaches, including the reconstruction of the Kennedy Interchange (I-64, I-65 and I-71) in downtown Louisville. The project includes construction of a new six-lane downtown bridge for northbound I-65 traffic. The existing I-65 bridge will be reconfigured to serve southbound traffic. Another new six-lane bridge, the East-End Bridge, will link the extended KY 841 with IN 265 in Indiana. As part of the construction of the two new bridges and reconfiguration of the existing downtown bridge, roadway work will be completed for the approaches to Kentucky and Indiana. In addition, the existing Kennedy Interchange, where I-64, I-65 and I-71 converge in downtown Louisville, will be reconstructed south of the current location. Partial justification for construction of the new downtown bridge and reconstruction of the Kennedy Interchange is the existing safety issues and the potential for improved safety. Crash rates for the interchange area have not been fully documented to establish the existing level of safety and degree of the problem relative to state and national statistics. The objective of the study will be to analyze and evaluate crash data for the Kennedy Interchange area of Louisville and sections I-64, I-265 and I-65 in southern Indiana. Crash data for the period of 2005 through 2009 has been analyzed to determine the frequency. Analysis was performed using GPS location information for crashes, as a supplement to the traditional mile point location analysis. Crash rates were compared with representative state and national rates, where available. Roadway sections analyzed included the following: 1. I-65 from Broadway north to the Indiana side of the Kennedy Bridge, 2. I-64 from the Cochran Tunnel to 9 th Street, 3. I-71 from Zorn Avenue to I-65, 4. I-64 to the I-265 interchange in Indiana, 5. I-65 to the I-265 interchange in Indiana, and 6. All ramps within the limits of the sections noted above. 1

8 2.0 Analysis Corridors The crash analysis included comparing crash data for three interstate corridors in Louisville-Jefferson County, Kentucky ( Kennedy Interchange corridors ) with three connecting interstate corridors in Louisville-Jefferson County and Floyd and Clark Counties in Indiana ( adjacent corridors ). The following roadway sections, shown by routes and milepoints, were analyzed as the Kennedy Interchange corridors. Route MPs I I I The following roadway sections, shown by routes and milepoints, were analyzed in the adjacent corridors. Route MPs I ; * I * I * *Approximate sections in Indiana The following figure shows these corridors on a map provided by Google Maps. Kennedy Interchange corridors are shown in red and the adjacent corridors are shown in green. 2

9 3.0 Crash Data Analysis Crash data were obtained from Kentucky s crash database for 2005 to The crash data were plotted by the following two methods; a) the conventional county-route and milepoint (CRMP) linear reference system, and b) using the crash s GPS coordinates. The reason for using two reference systems is to ensure that all crashes are found, particularly because Jefferson County has been identified as having a very high crash location inaccuracy rate. Additionally, the complexity of the interchange system in the study area increases the likelihood of location errors. The following figure shows the Kennedy Interchange corridors and the crashes plotted using both reference systems. Crash data plotted by GPS and CRMP within proximity to the Kennedy Interchange corridors A 0.08 mile (422.4 feet) buffer was created around the Kennedy Interchange corridors. This buffer zone was used to select crashes within proximity to the corridors. Engineering judgment was used to select additional crashes that were likely related to the corridors. For example, crashes located on some ramps at the I-64 at I-65 interchange were included even though the ramps were outside of the buffer zone. The resulting crashes were exported into a database and all duplicates were removed. Several duplicates were found, as expected, since a majority of the crashes were plotted correctly by CRMP and by GPS. The database was also filtered to only contain crash records that occurred on the interstate or 3

10 an interstate ramp. The following fields were used to determine if the crash was interstate-related: county-route indicator (RSE Unique), roadway number, between streets, and intersecting road. Each crash was categorized as I-64, I-65, or I-71 with any other interstate category being removed. The resulting database contained 3,304 crash records for the five-year period. This process represents the advanced selection method. Additionally, updated GPS coordinates were added to each crash record based on how the crash was plotted (GPS or CRMP). This allowed all crashes to be plotted on a single map. The following map shows all of the crashes using the advanced selection method. Crashes occurring outside the buffer zones were selected due to their location description or using engineering judgment Priority was given to fatal crashes to ensure that they are drawn on top of all other crashes. Similarly, injury crashes are drawn on top of PDO crashes. It should be noted that a database query of crashes (the typical selection method for crash data) with a roadway ID of I 0065 or I 0064 using the milepoints of the Kennedy Interchange corridors results in an underrepresentation of crashes. Ramp crashes will still have a roadway ID of I 0065 or I 0064 but will have a very small milepoint (usually under 0.3 mile). The crash query process excluded these ramp crashes since neither of these corridors includes milepoints near 0. Conversely, a crash query with a roadway ID of I 0071 will result in an overrepresentation of crashes. This is because in this case the corridor includes milepoint 0; resulting in all crashes occurring on I-71 ramps in Jefferson County being included using this type of query even ramps outside sections of the Kennedy Interchange corridors. 4

11 The following table shows a comparison of the typical selection and advanced selection results for each corridor by crash type. Type Route MPs Typical Selection Advanced Selection All Crashes I ,214 1,737 All Crashes I ,267 All Crashes I Fatal I Fatal I Fatal I Injury I Injury I Injury I All All n/a 2,615 3,304 Fatal All n/a 6 7 Injury All n/a The advanced selection more accurately identifies crashes related to the Kennedy Interchange corridors and, in addition, also includes a buffer to include crashes occurring on the edges of the corridors when engineering judgment deems its inclusion. Traffic volume data were obtained for the Kennedy Interchange corridors in order to calculate vehicle miles travelled. Rates were calculated in terms of crashes per 100 million vehicle-miles (C/100 MVM) for each corridor. Average rates by crash severity were obtained from KTC s annual report that calculates rates for all state-maintained roads in Kentucky by roadway type. 1 In addition, critical rates and critical rate factors (CRFs) were calculated. The following formula (Equation 1) was used to calculate critical crash rates. in which C c C a K Ca 1 M 2M C c = critical crash rate C a = average crash rate K = constant related to level of statistical significance selected (a probability of was used wherein K = 2.576) M = exposure (for sections, M was in terms of 100 million vehicle-miles (100 MVM); for spots, M was in terms of million vehicles) (1) 1 Green, E.R., Agent, K.R., and Pigman, J.G.; "Analysis of Traffic Crash Data in Kentucky ( ), Kentucky Transportation Center, University of Kentucky,

12 It was determined that it was appropriate to use the advanced selection process when comparing crashes to average rates since the average rates are calculated based on functional classification and milepoints are not a factor. This is further justification for the process used above. The following table shows the crash data and rates for the Kennedy Interchange corridors by crash severity. Crash Rates for Kennedy Interchange Corridors ( ) Type Route MPs Length 100 Million VMT AADT Statewide Rates Crash Data Critical Average Rate Rate Crashes Rate CRF All Crashes I , All Crashes I , All Crashes I , Fatal I , Fatal I , Fatal I , Injury I , Injury I , Injury I , All All n/a , Fatal All n/a , Injury All n/a , A critical rate factor (CRF) greater than 1.0 indicates that the crash rate (crashes per 100 million-vehicle miles) is higher than the critical rate for that type of highway. A CRF over 1.0 (ranging from 1.41 to 2.72) was observed for all corridors when considering all crashes. For injury crashes, a critical rate over 1.0 was observed for I-64 and I-65 and was nearly 1.0 (0.99) for I-71. Critical rate factors for all three sections were below 1.0 for fatal crash rates. It should be noted, however, that the average fatal crash rate for urban interstates in Kentucky was 0.40 and two of the three sections (I-65 and I-71) had fatal crash rates above the statewide average rate. The highest CRF on any segment was 0.72 for I-65. For all three sections combined, the fatal crash rate was 0.49 per 100 MVM and the CRF was A total of seven fatal crashes occurred on the Kennedy Interchange corridors in the five-year period. The same analysis was performed on the adjacent corridors. The Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) assisted in obtaining the crash data for the majority of the adjacent corridors. Crash data was requested and provided for the same time period (2005 to 2009) as the previous analysis for the Indiana sections. The same crash identification procedure used for the Kennedy Interchange corridors was used to identify crashes in the 3.65 mile section of I-64 in Kentucky. The remaining Indiana data were plotted using GPS to ensure that the Indiana crashes pertained to the adjacent corridors ; however since 608 (20 percent) of the crashes did not have a GPS value, all crashes were used. The following figure shows the Indiana crashes plotted by GPS. 6

13 Indiana Crash Data plotted by GPS for the adjacent corridors (2005 to 2009) Again, priority was given to the drawing order of fatal and injury crashes, respectively. Average crash rates for Indiana were not found for urban interstates in Indiana s Crash Facts 2010 Report 2. The Indiana Crash Facts included interstate rates (for urban and rural) for all crashes as 78.9 collisions per 100M VMT and 0.3 per 100M VMT for fatal crashes. These rates were not used since they applied to both urban and rural locations. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) reports a fatal crash rate of 0.21 per 100M VMT for urban interstates in Indiana in their most recent Highway Statistics report. 3 This average rate was used along with the average rates found in Kentucky in the analysis. The following table shows the crash data of the adjacent corridors in the same format as the previous analysis for the Kennedy Interchange corridors Indiana Crash Facts Report, Indiana University Public Policy Institute, Indianapolis, accessed November 22 nd, Highway Statistics 2008, Federal Highway Administration, accessed November 22,

14 Crash Rates for the Adjacent Corridors ( ) Type Route MPs Length 100 Million VMT AADT Statewide Rates Crash Data Critical Average Rate Rate** Crashes Rate CRF All Crashes I , * , All Crashes I * , All Crashes I * , Fatal I , * , Fatal I * , Fatal I * , Injury I , * , Injury I * , Injury I * , All All n/a , Fatal All n/a , Injury All n/a , *Sections in Kentucky and approximate sections in Indiana **Kentucky average rates were used for all crashes and injury crashes The CRF for all crashes for the adjacent corridors is about half of the CRF for the Kennedy Interchange corridors (1.14 compared to 2.22). Similarly, the injury CRF is 1.03 compared to 1.84 and the fatal CRF is 0.34 compared to There were four fatal crashes in the adjacent corridors in the five-year period. Spatial analysis was performed on all of the crash data for both study areas in order to present a more visual representation of the high crash locations. Density plots were created using 0.05 mile radius circles throughout the study corridors. The darkness of these circles increases with the number of crashes within the circle. The Equivalent Property Damage Only (EPDO) method was used in order to compare crashes of all severity types. This method uses the following equivalencies determined by a Transportation Research Board best practices publication 4 : Fatal crashes count as 12 PDO crashes Injury crashes count as 3 PDO crashes The following figure shows the EPDO density plots for the Kennedy Interchange Corridors. 4 Regional Crash Database Supports Safety Planning and Drives State Crash Data Improvement, Transportation Research Board Best Practices, accessed November 22,

15 EPDO Density Plots for the Kennedy Interchange Corridors (2005 to 2009) The darkest regions indicate areas with the highest number of EPDO crashes. The following figures show the density plots, along with the crash locations, for three specific corridor sections. 9

16 EPDO Density Plots for the I-64 and I-65 section of the Kennedy Interchange Corridors (2005 to 2009) EPDO Density Plots for the I-64 and I-71 section of the Kennedy Interchange Corridors (2005 to 2009) 10

17 EPDO Density Plots for the I-65 section just south of I-64 in the Kennedy Interchange Corridors (2005 to 2009) The unusually dense section in the figure above is a result of poorly coded crash location data. In this case, several crashes were plotted in exactly the same location even though the crash did not occur there. The following figure shows the EPDO density plots for the Adjacent Corridors. 11

18 EPDO Density Plots for Adjacent Corridors (2005 to 2009) Similarly, the following figures show the EPDO density plots for two specific sections of the Adjacent Corridors. 12

19 EPDO Density Plots for I-64 at I-265 in the Adjacent Corridors (2005 to 2009) EPDO Density Plots for I-65 at I-265 in the Adjacent Corridors (2005 to 2009) 13

20 4.0 Crash Cost Analysis The costs of crashes in the Kennedy Interchange corridors and adjacent corridors were analyzed and summarized. Based on the severity of reported crashes, a cost was assigned using data published by the National Safety Council. Data shown in the following table represent both calculable costs (economic costs) and comprehensive cost of motor vehicle collisions. Calculable costs or economic costs include wage loss, medical expense, administration costs, property damage, and employer costs. Comprehensive costs include not only the economic costs components, but also a measure of the value of lost quality of life associated with deaths and injuries. For the Kennedy Interchange corridors, the annual economic costs for the 2005 through 2009 time period were calculated to be $6,898,980 and the annual comprehensive costs were estimated to be $17,338, 760. Economic Cost of Average Traffic Crashes ( ) on the Kennedy Interchange Corridors Severity Cost Annual Average Number Reported Annual Estimated Cost* Fatalities** $ 1,300, $ 2,080,000 Incapacitating Injuries** $ 67, $ 1,223,040 Non-Incapacitating Injuries** $ 21, $ 1,447,520 Possible Injuries** $ 12, $ 843,780 Property Damage Only $ 2, $ 1,304,640 Total $ 6,898,980 Comprehensive Cost of Average Traffic Crashes ( ) on the Kennedy Interchange Corridors Severity Cost Annual Average Number Reported Annual Estimated Cost* Fatalities** $ 4,200, $ 6,720,000 Incapacitating Injuries** $ 214, $ 3,898,440 Non-Incapacitating Injuries** $ 54, $ 3,632,080 Possible Injuries** $ 26, $ 1,783,600 Property Damage Only $ 2, $ 1,304,640 Total $ 17,338,760 *Estimated costs provided by the National Safety Council. Costs for 2008 were the most recent data available. **These numbers refer to number of people not number of crashes so they will inherently be higher than the previous statistics as there can be more than one person injured or killed in one crash. 14

21 Cost data for the adjacent corridors is presented in the following table. Relatively similar results were found when calculating economic and comprehensive costs for the adjacent corridors as compared to the Kennedy Interchange corridors. The following table is a summary for the adjacent corridors which shows the estimated annual economic costs were $5,945,745 and the annual comprehensive costs were $14,592,524. Economic Cost of Average Traffic Crashes ( ) on the Adjacent Corridors Annual Average Number Severity Cost Reported Annual Estimated Cost* Fatalities** $ 1,300, $ 1,300,000 Incapacitating Injuries** $ 67, $ 1,211,863 Non-Incapacitating Injuries** $ 21, $ 1,434,292 Possible Injuries** $ 12, $ 836,069 Property Damage Only $ 2, $ 1,163,520 Total $ 5,945,745 Comprehensive Cost of Average Traffic Crashes ( ) on the Adjacent Corridors Annual Average Number Severity Cost Reported Annual Estimated Cost* Fatalities** $ 4,200, $ 4,200,000 Incapacitating Injuries** $ 214, $ 3,862,815 Non-Incapacitating Injuries** $ 54, $ 3,598,889 Possible Injuries** $ 26, $ 1,767,301 Property Damage Only $ 2, $ 1,163,520 Total $ 14,592,524 *Estimated costs provided by the National Safety Council. Costs for 2008 were the most recent data available. **These numbers refer to number of people not number of crashes so they will inherently be higher than the previous statistics as there can be more than one person injured or killed in one crash. 15

22 5.0 Summary and Conclusions The two analysis areas (Kennedy Interchange and adjacent) have fairly comparable roadway characteristics; both are urban interstate systems with limited access. The traffic volumes (AADT) are similar (70,000 in the adjacent corridors compared to 90,000 in the Kennedy Interchange corridors ); however, AADT is accounted for in the CRF analysis used to compare corridor rates with statewide rates as previously described. The Kennedy Interchange corridors are most different from the adjacent corridors in their interchange complexity. This creates more conflict points, driver decisions, and driver confusion; with the resultant higher overall crash rates. Consequently, more crashes increase the likelihood for more injuries, resulting in a higher injury rate. This increase is less likely for fatal crashes due to the traffic characteristics for urban interstates and the random nature of fatal crashes. The national fatal crash rate for urban interstates was 0.47 crashes per 100 MVM as reported in Highway Statistics Comparable fatal crash rates for urban interstates are 0.40 crashes per 100 MVM in Kentucky and 0.21 in Indiana. For the Kennedy Interchange corridors, the fatal crash rate was 0.49 crashes per 100 MVM and 0.16 for the adjacent corridors. Results from the analysis included the following: The sections of interstate representing the Kennedy Interchange corridors have a high total and injury crash rate as compared to statewide urban interstate crash rates. The resulting CRF was approximately 2.0 for total crashes and injury crashes. The fatal crash rate for the Kennedy Interchange corridors is greater than the statewide average; however, the CRF is less than 1.0. Overall, the crash rates for the Kennedy Interchange corridors are higher than the crash rates for the adjacent corridors. When compared to national fatal crash rates, those for the Kennedy Interchange corridors were slightly higher and those for the adjacent corridors were lower. An analysis was also performed to estimate the overall costs of crashes occurring in the Kennedy Interchange corridors and the adjacent corridors. Results indicated that there were substantial costs associated with crashes in the two analysis areas and the overall costs were relatively similar. For the Kennedy Interchange corridors, the annual economic costs for the 2005 through 2009 time period were calculated to be $6,898,980 and the annual comprehensive costs were estimated to be $17,338,760. Analysis for the adjacent corridors showed the estimated annual economic costs were $5,945,745 and the annual comprehensive costs were $14,592, Highway Statistics 2008, Federal Highway Administration, accessed November 22,

23 For more information or a complete publication list, contact us at: KENTUCKY TRANSPORTATION CENTER 176 Raymond Building University of Kentucky Lexington, Kentucky (859) (859) (FAX) The University of Kentucky is an Equal Opportunity Organization