Winter Outlook

Transcription

1 Winter Outlook GRTgaz SA and TIGF SA may not be held liable for direct or indirect prejudice of any type that results from the use or processing of the information contained herein, in particular any operating, financial or commercial loss. 18 November 2016

2 The French TSO GRTgaz and TIGF must ensure their networks are safe and operative at all times, and that natural gas flows are balanced. 1 In accordance with obligations incumbent on natural gas transmission operators, the GRTgaz and TIGF networks have the capacity required to ensure continuity of transmission, including during peak cold periods 2. The design of the French network is based on diversified entry points (interconnections, LNG terminals and underground storage facilities), allowing it to offer its users a choice between various combinations of supply. However, the proper operation of the gas system in winter is depends on a optimum and diversified management of these supplies. GRTgaz and TIGF are releasing together for the first time a common Winter Outlook, to inform market operators in France of the various strain situations that may arise on their networks and the particular measures pour winter French Energy Code, L "P2", i.e. an extremely low temperature over three consecutive days, as occurs statistically once every 50 years: Decree No of 19 March 2004 related to public service obligations in the gas sector November 2016

3 CONTENTS BALANCE COVERAGE NETWORK BALANCING NEW CAPACITIES AND NEW FACILITIES SPECIFIC MEASURES ANNEX 1: CUT-OFF MECHANISM (PUG) ANNEX 2: GRTGAZ VIGILANCE MECHANISM 3 18 November 2016

4 BALANCE COVERAGE Firm capacities available to the PIR and PITTM (LNG Terminal Interconnection Point) facilities and capacity subscriptions to the PITS for Winter enable the covering of gas demand during cold peaks periods at a 2% risk level. Peak coverage and balance coverage in general imply a sufficient supply of LNG at the PITTM during cold peak periods. In addition, despite a good level of storage stocking on 1 November 2016, GRTgaz and TIGF underline the importance of properly managing the withdrawal campaign to maintain sufficient withdrawal capacities all winter long and at peak periods. Calculation assumptions: Gas demand for the cold peak at 2% risk level on the GRTgaz network DK LNG to North PEG: 250GWh/d subscribed Obergailbach entry: exit firm capacities sold on German side 4 18 November 2016

5 Oltingue exit at the subscription on 31/10/2016 Alveringem exit from PEG Nord at 0 GWh/d Gas flows between France and Spain at Pirineos 5 18 November 2016

6 NETWORK BALANCING Since 1 April 2015, TIGF and GRTgaz both have a balancing mechanism to carry out intervention meant for balancing purpose. These mechanisms are similar and adapted to each network. The associated conditions have been discussed in Concertation Gaz and agreed with the regulator. These mechanisms consist of a marked based balancing of the network through interventions on the stock exchange. The TSO publish on their respective websites an indicator called projected closing linepack which allows the market to follow network balancing network. (See Data Gas 3 for TIGF and SMART GRTgaz 4 for GRTgaz). The greater the imbalance is, the more significant the balancing actions made by GRTgaz and the more aggressive the action mode will be. The intervention on the stock exchange allows to fix a marginal buy price and a marginal sell price. At the end of the gas day, the daily imbalance is cashed-out at the marginal price or at the weighted average price if optional balancing tolerance have been signed up. GRTgaz and TIGF would like to call attention to the obligation of shippers to balance on a daily basis and encourage them to do it promptly. A strong imbalance may lead to significant interventions with potential significant impact of market prices November 2016

7 NEW CAPACITIES AND NEW FACILITIES For this winter the North Zone will welcome the commercial commissioning of the Dunkerque PITTM. The Arc de Dierrey pipeline (from Cuvilly station to Voisines station) is in operation and can absorb the entry capacities from the Dunkerque PITTM. This pipeline facility improves France security of gas supply and flows from west to east. This allows GRTgaz to stop with West-East bottleneck which was part of the vigilance mechanism the previous years. An important step has been taken in December 2015, with the reinforcement of the West corridor and the commissioning by TIGF of the Adour pipeline. This new link increase capacities at Biriatou, border station between France and Spain, and improve the connection between the French and Spanish market. SPECIFIC MEASURES On 28 November 2013, the French Minister in charge of Energy (Ministre de l Écologie, du Développement durable et de l Énergie) issued a decree implementing the Plan d Urgence Gaz (PUG, the French gas emergency plan, in application of EU Regulation 994/2010 from 22 October 2010 on the security of gas supply). This mechanism is explained in appendice 1. In addition to this national mechanism, GRTgaz put in place each year a vigilance mechanism in order to anticipate strain situations on its network (annex 2) November 2016

8 Such a mechanism is not necessary on TIGF s balancing zone, because of its network sizing and because of withdrawals capacities at Lussagnet that allows to cover peak periods November 2016

9 ANNEX 1 : CUT OF MECHANISM (PUG) The French gas emergency plan is a mechanism that can be rapidly implemented to prevent or slow down a supply crisis that could lead to not being able to meet gas needs in France or in part of the country. The national gas emergency plan sets measures by order of priority in a case of crisis: 1. measures focusing on demand 2. measures reducing public service obligations 3. conservation measures taken by French authorities 4. measures and actions taken on urban heating 5. last resort measures: select service cut-offs. A service cut-off survey was undertaken to quantify the potential for cut-offs as well as necessary timeframes. In case of a major supply crisis or localised gas deficit making it impossible to provide supply of natural gas to all customers in the impacted zone, the managers of natural gas distribution and transport networks will, as a last resort, implement select service cut-off measures with their customers (except MIG) according to the following principles: Network operators will alert their respective clients as soon as a major risk of supply interruption appears; Network operators will determine the need for select service cut-offs and the potential for cut-offs (depending on the results of the survey and the observed levels of consumption); Network operators will ask their clients to reduce their consumption in the order defined by the mechanism November 2016

10 10 18 November 2016

11 ANNEX 2 : GRTGAZ VIGILANCE MECHANISM In order to alert the market and allow it to anticipate these situations GRTgaz reactivates its vigilance mechanism by providing daily information on SMART GRTgaz website ( and by addressed to shippers. The mechanism will be in operation from 16 November 2016 to 31 March The following strain situations will be studied for Winter : Insufficient balance coverage North Bottleneck South-East Bottleneck The vigilance mechanism provides insight for the day in question and the 5 following days. A global vigilance indicator is displayed for each day made up of 3 levels and as well as recommendations determined by GRTgaz National Dispatching on a daily basis: Green : no strain identified Orange : orange alert in progress / likely network strain Red : red alert in progress / network strain observed or highly likely On that same day, in case of a situation of identified strain that is not eliminated via recommendations, GRTgaz will implement complementary measures. 1. The first level of action consists in using physical solutions available to GRTgaz such as the use of its line-pack, its safety stock or requests for help from other infrastructure operators. 2. When a bottleneck occurs, the second level of action consists of publishing, if necessary, a notice on the capacities that will be reduced (interruptible capacity first) in order to rebalance supply to eliminate the bottlenecks. This measure will only be taken on the current day. The interconnection points in question are different according to the bottleneck: November 2016

12 - North Bottleneck: Dunkerque PIR, Taisnières H PIR and Obergailbach PIR, Dunkerque PITTM, the North-South link. - South-East bottleneck: the North-South link, withdrawals from the South-Atlantic PITS. 3. The third level of action happens in the case of a localised gas deficit on the network from a persistent bottleneck or an overall deficit in case of failure in balance coverage. In these situations, GRTgaz will alert the department at the French Ministry for Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy, who can activate the Plan d Urgence Gaz (the French gas emergency plan) (see Appendix). GRTgaz will then take all related measures prescribed by this plan and under its responsibility November 2016

13 Bottleneck risk for winter The South-East bottleneck depends on the use of withdrawals from the South-East PITS and output from the Fos-sur-Mer terminals. The feedback from last winter shows that the supplies repartition led GRTgaz to publish orange and red alerts several times. The north bottleneck risk exist but is unlikely if lng supplies keep at levels upper to last winter. The west-east Bottleneck, part of the vigilance mechanism the years before, disappear thanks to the commissionning of the Arc de Dierrey (part 2) between Dierrey and Voisines station. Reminder on bottlenecks In winter, GRTgaz determine with simulation tools, on a daily basis, the overall capacity of the North-South link and withdrawals from the South-Atlantic PITS. This capacity corresponds to the maximum capacity that can be transported on a given day by the GRTgaz network from the North balancing zone and going from the South-Atlantic PITS towards the South balancing zone. It is then distributed between the North-South link and South Atlantic withdrawals according to rules defined in the Operational Network Code (CORE). The saturation of pipelines is studied according to several parameters, including expected consumption and the provisional supply framework based upon nominations at 2:00 PM. In normal network operating conditions, this overall capacity is higher than the sum of the firm capacities of the North-South link and withdrawals from the South-Atlantic PITS. Bottlenecks appear when the maximum capacity from the preceding calculation is insufficient to meet the supply needs expressed by the market: excess supply upstream of the bottleneck and supply deficit downstream of the bottleneck November 2016

14 South-East Bottleneck This bottleneck appears with weak output from the Fos-sur-Mer LNG terminals, low withdrawals from the South-East PITS, and high deliveries towards TIGF via the Cruzy interconnection point. South-East bottlenecks appears in several areas, including on the Rhône pipeline, at the Etrez compression site, and on the Centre- East and Berry pipelines providing West to East transit in the South zone. Recommendations: To eliminate the bottleneck, it is necessary to increase output from the Fos-sur-Mer terminals or to increase withdrawals from the South-East. The illustration on the left shows the situations of South-East bottleneck, with the consumption of the South zone on the X-axis and the supply downstream of the bottleneck on the Y-axis. This data is given for information purposes only. The red zone shows known bottleneck situations. The orange zone corresponds to the situations where there is a risk that a bottleneck may appear. In the green zone, bottlenecks can be avoided November 2016

15 North Bottleneck This bottleneck appears with high supply in the North leading to a saturation of transit within the North zone of the GRTgaz network towards the South balancing zone. Dunkerque Taisnières Obergailbach The first bottleneck is situated upstream of the Parisian region and appears with high supply at Taisnières H and Obergailbach, and with low deliveries at Oltingue. Montoir Oltingue The second scenario is situated more towards Fos the west, with transit saturation in the Parisian region with heavy supply in Dunkerque, Taisnières H and Obergailbach, and Dunkerque PITTM low deliveries at Oltingue, and low withdrawals from the North-Atlantic and North-West PITS. Recommendations: To eliminate this bottleneck, supply must be reduced in the North (Dunkerque, Taisnières H, Obergailbach and Dunkerque PITTM), and withdrawals increased from storage facilities situated downstream of the North bottleneck (North-West and North-Atlantic PITS), along with supplementary outputs from the Montoir-de-Bretagne LNG terminal or a reduced use of the North-South link with higher supply in the South zone. The illustration on the left shows the situations of North bottleneck, with the consumption of the North zone on the X-axis and supply upstream of the bottleneck on the Y-axis. This data is given for information purposes only. The red zone shows known bottleneck situations. The orange zone corresponds to the situations November 2016

16 where there is a risk that a bottleneck may appear. In the green zone, bottlenecks can be avoided November 2016