AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11

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1 Thank you for participating in this webinar. We appreciate your interest in this important industry trend. With me today are Ralph Young, AICC s Technical Director and Randy Banks, president of Sharp International. Ralph and Randy have been active partners with me in developing the material you ll hear today. Also, I want to thank the AICC, RISI and Sharp International for co-sponsoring this event and a special thanks to Marquip/Ward/United for their generous time and help in sharing their corrugator information. Several charts and graphs reference The Future of Lightweight Containerboard in North America, a study published by RISI last Spring. Please be aware that the data sources for these charts were the AF&PA, FBA, and RISI unless otherwise noted. I gratefully acknowledge the information that was made available to me from these organizations. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 1

2 Some people have asked me why I opted to go back so far into the industry s history in a study about the future of lightweight containerboard in North America. This is a very capital-intensive industry, especially at the mill level, and we live our decisions for a long time. I think it s really important that we understand as an industry, how we got to where we are today. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 2

3 If you re an industry veteran, say 20 or 30 years, paper machines aren t what they used to be. The single wire, single headbox configuration is long gone for most machines Dual headboxes were introduced to provide better control of formation and appearance. Then 2 wires, mini-fourdriniers typically mounted above the main wire, which allows papermakers to engineer the plies with different characteristics. New forming technologies were developed to improve sheet properties, including balancing MD and CD tensile. Gap formers for containerboard introduced in Europe highspeed production, 5000 feet per minute or more, lighter weights, though typically less basis weight range Other advances included consistency profiling headboxes to minimize variability across the sheet; Extended nip presses to speed up dewatering and increase fiber-to-fiber bonding; film transfer size presses to enhance strength and other properties and single tier drying, to enhance run speeds. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 3

4 Link to page 40 Kraft liner grew at brisk pace between 1950 and 1970, and continued steady growth at % through mid 90s Environmental and regulatory climate changed significantly in mid 90s Recycled required less capital investment and could be scaled down Technology based on recycled had been very successful in Europe Between 92-99, close to 4 million tons of recycled capacity was started Recycled medium surged in mid-90s, now accounting for over 40% of all medium Capital investment peaked in 1990, and economics of recycled versus virgin were compelling, especially when OCC stable and averaged $35-50/ton As recycled mills came on stream, demand bid prices up to over $200/ton. The industry now realized that the volatility of recovered paper needed to be managed It s a very different world from when many of the mini-mills were first conceived At the same time many containerboard users became aware that the surge in demand for OCC meant that some recovered paper users were reaching much further down in the pile, to less desirable materials. Others were finding ways to use cheaper furnish, such as ONP and mixed paper. This has made stock preparation critically important to the quality of what s coming off the dry end of the machine. In last 2 decades, China s requirements for recovered fiber grew dramatically, putting new stresses on the recovered fiber system North America has abundant forest resources as well as being the major source of OCC we represent the lion s share of world s fiber basket. Today recycled has become mainstream and virgin mills have invested in fiber flexibility to respond to market realities of changing fiber requirements AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11--1/23/2011 9:43:06 AM 4

5 When we refer to lightweights we re defining as linerboard less than 26# and medium less than 23#. We ve chosen those definitions because we want to contrast with European basis weights later on in the presentation. After the adoption of the Alternate Rule 41 in 1991 we ve seen A proliferation of grades some mills needed more fiber to make a ring crush spec And lightweighting in every category except 26# What you see on the top pie, 5 grades representing 93%, have become just 42% in the bottom pie. And the yellow slices, 26# and under, have not changed at all. Lightweighting, yes; lightweights, not yet AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 5

6 Medium is a major contributor to box performance. In fact, in Europe, that s where much of the action is. Its about targeting the application. Heavyweight medium has been evolving since 1980s but 23# didn t emerge till after If the box contents were self-supporting, like cans, the box didn t need to carry the load, and using 23# meant using 11% less fiber. Then there is the cost trade-off somewhat lower liner weights paired with significantly heavier medium weights can be cost effective when medium sells for as much as 10% less than liner Today both the production of 23# and of 30-33# exceed that of the old standard 26#. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 6

7 ECT has focused attention on different manufacturing considerations. Machine variability is significant, that is, a wide range of ring crush values within a given weight category from one machine to another And while we ve seen that liner basis weights have clearly decreased, the average weight of boxes hasn t changed as much as some would have predicted. The average box basis weight is determined by dividing the #s consumed at box plants by the MSF of the combined board produced the calculation doesn t consider wall layers. However wall structure hasn t varied much over time, D/W actually a little less. We may be seeing a structural change in the domestic mix impact of migration to Asia as more lighter weight applications have gone offshore, the overall weight of the mix shifted upward. Data suggests this may be one factor. If you look at the heavier weight category, 69# and its common high performance substitute, 55-61#, that category has increased as a % of total mix, the only category that has increased on a relative basis. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 7

8 Historical weighted average basis weights show a clear and consistent downward trend for liner and an upward trend for medium, but more volatility in the pattern. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 8

9 A quick sidebar on basis weight data: Prior to 2010, the published average basis weight statistics just weren t consistent with the observations and experience of many in the industry. The FBA asked members to review their submissions to be sure method was understood and being followed. The 2009 data showed a significant drop in average basis weights, more in line with expectations. We used historical production data by weight category, weighted average take-up factors and adjustments for construction type single-face, singlewall, doublewall and triplewall to impute an average basis weight of production. Results are remarkably close to FBA figures calculated versus reported. Kudos to the FBA for reiterating the importance of accurate data so we know where we ve been and where we are. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 9

10 Major containerboard producing regions outside of Asia show average basis weights well below the U.S. Chinese averages reflect the fact that most of their boxes are still doublewall combinations, though this is changing rapidly as the capacity to produce world-class containerboard continues to escalate. The good news is that the U.S. average is definitely trending downward. But the average is still about 20% higher than for Brazil, Europe and Australia. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 10

11 We looked at Europe, because economically and culturally, they re closest to U.S. The simple answer is that the components they use are lighter. 75% of European linerboard is recycled, 15% of that recycled is 100 gram (20.4#) or less. 85% of their medium is recycled, and nearly 1/3 of that is 90 (19.4#) gram or less. So why is that? AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 11

12 There are clear differences between Europe and the US in their respective social, cultural, economic and commercial considerations. Europe has 134 people per square miles versus 76 in the US. Sustainability has been embraced by many Europeans. The chart on the previous slide suggests that if we use Germany as proxy for Western Europe, there is a conservation mindset that reflects more limited resources available. The lack of forest resources is especially striking. For every hundred acres US has in forestland, Germany has just 13. Europe has a more conducive investment climate, including incentives for some capital projects and depreciation considerations. Europeans point out that there are significant cost savings with lightweights, including more square footage per roll, less storage space requirements, less roll handling and changeovers, which leads to less waste; and less starch consumption and lower energy requirements on the corrugator. Finally, supply chain practices are different Transportation is often cited as a major distinguishing factor between Europe and the US, though we re not convinced it s still so different. With the advent of EU, produce from the south of Spain may be shipped to Poland or Latvia, further in miles than from Florida to New York. Europeans typically buy in smaller package sizes, units are likely to be single height in racks rather than set on top of each other and the Europeans tend to use less conveyorization all are factors that suggest less compression strength is required. The mainstream use of retail-ready packaging--minimizing packaging materials, footprint, storage and handling, and maximizing shelf presence and ease of package disposal. But when we consider all these trends, are they enough to explain a 20+% average difference in basis weights? We don t think so. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 12

13 Using Germany as a proxy for Europe, we compared flute and wall preferences. These vary very significantly by region and from country to country. Choices tend to be driven by capabilities how strong is the board and what flutes are available on existing corrugators? And microflute, though still a small part of the mix, is the fastest growing flute style In the US, C-flute singlewall accounts for 60% of the mix and B-flute about a third of that. In Germany, B-flute is the dominant profile, with micro-flute more apparent and double-wall structures a larger part of the mix than C-flute singlewall. In China the dichotomy of the oldest and the newest is reflected in the overwhelming preference for doublewall. As new capacity is brought on stream, the Chinese will, no doubt, reduce their reliance on doublewall structures. And in Japan, legacy machines keep A- Flute dominant, but that is starting to shift toward C-flute. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 13

14 There are abut 140 containerboard machines in North America, with a median age of 41 years and a technical age of close to 20 years. We estimate that there are less than 20 machines capable of running 23# or lighter linerboard and less than a dozen capable of running under 23# medium. Since 2000, just 3 new machines have been built, versus more than 30 in Europe. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 14

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16 There are an estimated 568 corrugator plants in North America, 523 in the US. They produce about 80% of finished boxes or components, the balance is produced by sheet plants. The trend has been to reducing the number of plants. Significant plant closure initiatives have been undertaken by: IP, who had 140 after Weyerhaeuser acquisition, and closed more than a dozen Smurfit-Stone, who had ~110 in 2008, now in the mid 90s? and T-I has begun first several of a dozen closures planned For the large integrateds, it s about leaner, more efficient, higher output facilities. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 16

17 Corrugator width standards have increased significantly over time. In the U.S. the most common machine is 98 inches, which represents nearly half of all domestic corrugators, and 110 inch machines are the fastest growing we estimate that there are about 55 such installations. In Europe, 130-inch machines are starting to appear. Inline litho-laminators are also used to produce high-end graphics boxes, typically in smaller flute profiles E, F and less While corrugators have been capable of running as fast as a thousand feet per minute for two decades, the newest machines offer features to increase uptime quick-change flute cassettes, precise gluing systems, temperature monitoring in real time all contribute to maximizing uptime and maintaining machine speed. More flute options and print options increase flexibility to serve a wider range of customers And high-speed converting equipment that automates many of the more labor-intensive processes, has had a big impact on productivity AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 17

18 Link to page 42 How do converters see lightweights? Working capital is a key metric for box plants and some managers are concerned that lightweights will mean more grades and more inventory Some express reservations about productivity, cost and waste implications. They don t want to lose any of the ground that s been gained by the industry over the last twenty years. However, lightweight users say there s actually potential for significant savings less space, less roll changes, less starch, less energy Best practices are critical, lightweights are not as forgiving. Sheets off the corrugator need to be flat and dry Current thinking: Integrateds certainly aren t pushing lightweights on their plants or their customers Independents don t see a groundswell of interest from their customers and those that are interested are looking at the opportunity to reduce costs Converters express concern about lack of availability of lightweight board So the bottom line for many independents is that there s not enough in it for them, at least not yet AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 18

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20 Okay, so maybe this isn t new, but it bears repeating. Equipment that is properly installed, calibrated and maintained Best practices adhering to industry standards and guidelines, equipment manufacturers procedures, guidelines and recommendations, and applying what you ve learned from past experience, and problems. Benchmarking What, exactly, did you do really well on that day you set a record for the operation? How do you compare with others in the industry? The data is out there. Are you holding your suppliers feet to the fire? If they think you don t care, they re less likely to care. You can be nice about it, but they have to know you re on their case. The fact is that lightweights are less forgiving. If you re not doing the basics right, you ve going to get bit in the fanny. Today we re focusing on the corrugator. In future webinars we ll talk more about converting equipment and how to market lightweights. And the study to be published later year, we ll cover the gamut in detail. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 20

21 For roll stands and splicers, the key is getting them to work as one system a holistic approach. This is especially important for lightweights. Designs that can tailor the torque profile to minimize jerking of the web. One approach uses a paper stop bar to control clamping during the splice and a soft start for ramping back up to normal run speed after a splice. This lightweight package is a popular option for European corrugators running, well, lightweights. For pre-heaters, driven drums provide better control of the webs as they unwind. Lightweights require less heat and dwell time because they typically have lower moisture to start and because the sheet is more dense, it heats faster and releases moisture more quickly. So the wrap arm positioning needs to be controlled. For medium pre-conditioning, it is easy to overheat the lightweight paper with a conventional steam chest. Newer designs use an infusion technology to open the fibers of the medium prior to glue application AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 21

22 Link to page 41 Single facers. Using a capstan feature to minimize tension and automatically adjust at splices to avoid tension spikes minimizes the likelihood of factures, tear-outs or poor flute formation. Corrugator roll configuration. The characteristics of paper have changed with the mainstream use of recovered fiber, and flute profiles need to reflect that.. There are a wide range of options, literally hundreds, that can alter the strength, appearance and/or economics of the combined board, but it s about making trade-offs. For lightweights, profiles that exhibit a lower pitch and mid-range flute height will provide better strength but increase medium consumption. Alternatively, a recent back-to-back trial of a conventional flute profile versus lower flute height, higher pitch alternative profile resulted in a 2.3% medium savings, but with an ECT loss of 0.9%. If you re cutting up say 60,000 tons, about 20,000 of that is medium. At $600/ton, a 2% savings is nearly a quarter of a million dollars, if you can accept a little less ECT performance. And if you run a performance mix, if you routinely run heavy mediums, over 33#, you should be considering a lower pitch, higher height roll geometry. Peripherally heated corrugator rolls helps eliminate blisters at start up, and control temperature range, especially important for lightweights and microflute and a wider elevating belt provides smoother transition to the bridge and the festooning of the single face. Glue machine. Lighter board requires more precise glue application. Using an automated rider roll provides better control than what a contact bar typically can achieve. And it eliminates the need for human intervention at a critical time in the combining process. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 22

23 At the double backer, using a drilled hot plate provides significantly less thermal deflection under load, reducing the likelihood of edge crush and a more uniform distribution of heat across the web. A shoe press system can be automatically adjusted for hold down pressure to optimize heat transfer and again, minimize potential for board crush. Finally a vacuum traction section out of the heating section helps ensure that the board will be flatter, stiffer and less likely to show washboarding. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 23

24 At the Slitter-Scorer, using driven score tooling top and bottom, to prevent sheet from spinning up, using driven pull rolls to avoid crush and sheet marks For the Cutoff Knife, using a driven top hold down on knife out-feed section to avoid lead edge damage and a hold down on knife exit roll adjustable to the board grade. For the Stackers, the in-feed position onto stacker vacuum belts is critical; using an auto adjust feature to ensure the right in-feed angle for shingling. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 24

25 Systems for automatic set-up based on board combination, order libraries to store prior run specs, bridge buffer controls and devices to synchronize splices have been available for a while. What continues to advance is the software to interpret sensor information and integrate the feedback for on-the-fly process monitoring, adjustment and control, often without operator involvement. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 25

26 Link to page 44 In the U.S., the trend has been to sell away from doublewall why use five layers of paper when you can do it with three? Lightweights provide a lot of options to get the benefits of doublewall for certain applications without using more fiber. And with the European pricing based on different quality levels for linerboard, an optimized structure can be had for the same or even less cost. The Europeans have done a lot of work with synchronizing the pitch and geometry of the corrugating rolls to optimize doublewall performance. In the photo at the upper left, you can plainly see the washingboarding, or ripple effect. Mechanical stress, excessive heat and moisture and conventional pitch ratios for doublewall profiles all contribute to the appearance of ripples. The use of lighter weights--components under 30#--exacerbates the defect. By designing the profile pitch to minimize the ratio, that is the smallest top and bottom numbers, washingboarding is reduced and the compression strength of the combination increased significantly. Europeans are developing a D flute profile that could be adapted to a 2/1 ratio for better printing, good strength performance and significant paper savings. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 26

27 Read through bullets AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 27

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29 Link to page 45 You really need to start with flat board. Zero-crush feeders help ensure that the board gets into the press without damage. Best practices for setting up and running presses and die-cutters well you ve already gotten that lecture. Consider this information from Ralph s presentation at the RISI International Containerboard Conference in November. Remember, lightweights are even less forgiving. You need to have a testing protocol as standard operating procedure, not just when you get a complaint. For microflute, consider the tests that are used for folding cartons. Check out a new testing method MD Torsional (Shear) Stiffness. The test is based on the premise that the stiffness of corrugated board is very sensitive to the general state of the board but especially the state of the fluted medium. The Chalmers dynamic stiffness tester (DST) is a relatively inexpensive and simple device that measures torsional stiffness. This protocol may challenge FCT and ECT as the way to evaluate combined board. Ralph s quote. I believe we have to show both the leaders and followers in the move to reducing fiber/waste, and satisfying the desires of CPGs and the big box stores requires a shift from conventional thinking. Former comfort factors are out the window. Only by embracing comprehensive containerboard properties, modern corrugating and converting technology and alternative combined board testing will each producer succeed AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 29

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31 Who s driving sustainability? Let s consider the Walmart effect. The company does over $400 billion in sales. Their retail power is enormous, their ability to manage suppliers is legendary and its effect on corrugated industry pervasive They ve taken on the role of commercial leadership and their objectives set the bar for almost everyone else. Among their sustainability initiatives are: The Packaging Scorecard 5% packaging reduction by 2013 Greenhouse gas reduction, 20 million metric tons from supply chain by 2015 Procter and Gamble, a major supplier to Walmart, has said in their literature that 70% of their customers are from sustainable mainstream they want choices that improve environmental profile, but only after performance and value needs met. Kraft has introduced an Eco-Calculator so that suppliers can determine how environmentally efficient a package design will be and continues to stress Right-Sizing selectivity for who gets to supply them. Unilever, announced an ambitious waste reduction program as part of its Sustainable Living Plan, including a target to decrease the weight of packaging by a third by 2020 Yum Brands--Taco Bell has removed more than 51,000 pounds of corrugated board from its containers, Pizza Hut U.S. has made several improvements in packaging over the past several years, including reducing the amount of fiber used in its pizza boxes by 15 percent in the last decade, 5 percent in just the last three years. For more and more customers every time a lighter weight substrate replaces a heavier one, there s a weight reduction benefit that s being counted. They want lightweights, the board and boxes need to be available from multiple sources/locations and the products need to work. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 31

32 Link to page 43 Display-ready, shelf-ready concepts have been around for a while. The focus was on ease of set-up and stocking. Retail-ready has far broader objectives and requirements: it s an integrated approach to packaging that ensures ease of identifying, opening, replenishing, shopping and disposing. Okay, but what does that mean? AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 32

33 PIRA is a leading global market research and strategic / technical consulting business, for the packaging, printing and paper industry supply-chains. In a recent PIRA study, they estimate that by 2011, close to 3.4 million tons of packaging in the US will be impacted by RRP, and 80% by weight is corrugated. Marketers will need to assure consumers that this is not extra packaging, but more efficient. Microflute has emerged as the goto material for many retail ready packages. It s growing in Europe by 5% a year and approaching 10% of the corrugated flute mix. READ QUOTE Standardization will require a lot of cooperation think, in the U.S. the corrugated common footprint. Retail ready packaging may be the most compelling driver of all for lightweights. One of the most interesting technological developments over the past few years has been the development and use of lighter weight liners and flutings. Improved papermaking technologies have ensured that the overall structural properties of the corrugated container can be maintained to produce economic and environmental benefits. PIRA International 33

34 How often have you heard a supplier say that customers want everything, but will give it all up for a lower price? That customers want innovation but don t want to pay for it. So it is with lightweights buyers think they should cost less, but for most North American papermakers, there s a productivity loss associated with running lightweights. Well, if you ve told customers for years that fiber is your biggest cost and that now you can supply board with less fiber, why wouldn t they expect it to cost less! What else do customers expect? Quality and consistency. Unfortunately, quality is not a given random field tests show more than an inconsequential few boxes don t meet spec. They want reliability boxes there when they re supposed to be, because stock outs are a real bummer. Customers value flexibility to handle schedule changes, or a last-minute copy fix Finally, how much does the supplier know about customer s business? And how knowledgeable is he about his own industry? Have you ever asked a supplier about something you read in the trade press and you got a blank look? Not very impressive, is it? Lightweights add a lot more choices to the menu AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 34

35 We believe that the limiting factor for customers is supply constraint there s just not enough lightweight capacity available for the biggest box users, the game-changers, to commit to conversions. And without a clear picture of demand potential, containerboard companies are reluctant to consider investment in lightweight capacity, particularly since the industry has already shut down or announced the shutdown of the largest block of capacity in its history, in the 24 months between the start of 2009 and the end of Containerboard manufacturers are intent on balancing supply/demand dynamics with a maturing, slowgrowth market. A jeopardy or an opportunity?... AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 35

36 We think the time is right for lightweight investment among the paper makers. Black liquor credits and restrained capital spending in recent years have produced generally good balance sheets has emerged as a very decent year for the industry and the trend should continue at least through But lightweights are a difficult strategic choice for the large integrateds, who have billions invested in paper machines that are most productive at mid-to-heavier weight grades. Mill managers want to run to the machine s sweet spot. We believe the mid-sized integrateds, some with well-established positions in recycled grades, are the most likely companies to step up to the opportunity. Or maybe a consortium of independents who may see lightweights as a point of differentiation between themselves and the integrateds. Or potentially a European supplier, though not at the current exchange rate. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 36

37 We think there may be several North American companies with underutilized or idled graphics paper assets that could see conversion to lightweight containerboard as an opportunity. And finally, we believe that as companies consider upgrades and rebuilds for existing equipment, they ll be looking for ways to move machine capabilities closer to the low end of their basis weight ranges. Who s out there? Machines built for lightweights Pratt Industries-Shreveport, LA & Staten Island, NY; Atlantic/New Forest-Scarborough, ON Machines converted to lightweights IP-Cantonment, FL; KPAQ-St. Francisville, LA; Abitibi-Coosa Pines, AL Companies with some machines already capable of lightweights KapStone, Longview Fibre, Port Townsend and others New machines or conversions?-norampac in Niagara Falls, Boise at DeRidder, other idled or underutilized graphics paper machines AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 37

38 Look for the opportunities, use lightweights as a way to inform customers about market trends. Often it s easier to get a forward-thinking local or regional box user to try something new than a large national account. Tell them what you re doing to be ready Position lightweights as a way for your customers to gain entry into the big retailers as a regional supplier Cultivate relationships with containerboard suppliers who offer or will likely be offering lightweights Lightweights, under 23#, not a substitute for 32 ECT where compression performance is required Lightweights may not be a good option for your business model. Nobody knows your business better than you. When you consider the plant s vital statistics location, size, layout, etc., when you consider your market area and customer base, when you consider the capabilities and age of your equipment, you may conclude that life is good where you are. A reasoned strategy, really well executed, is usually more successful than a me-too adopter of the latest trend. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 38

39 Thank you for joining us today and again our appreciation to the AICC, RISI and Sharp International for co-sponsoring this event. AICC/RISI/Sharp-Int l Webinar, 1/25/11 39

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