STUDY ON THE PROBE TRAFFIC INFORMATION SYSTEM IN DKI JAKARTA, THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

Transcription

1 STUDY ON PRIVATE-INITIATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN FY2011 STUDY ON THE PROBE TRAFFIC INFORMATION SYSTEM IN DKI JAKARTA, THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA SUMMARY February 2012 Prepared for: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Prepared by: Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. West Nippon Expressway Company Limited Oriental Consultants Co., Ltd.

2 (1) (Background of the project and its necessity In the metropolitan area of Jakarta (with a population of about 10 million people), in the Republic of Indonesia, the demand for transportation is increasing due to rapid economic growth and the advances in road construction are not enough. In addition, road construction cannot keep up with the demands of traffic concentration in this area and as a result, the impact on the environment caused by traffic congestion, and road traffic accidents have become a serious problem. To ease this problem, it is expected that an ITS (Intelligent Transport Systems) will be used. Our country has a leading technology and knowledge of ITS and thus by utilizing this knowledge and technology, it is possible for us to play a role in alleviating or solving such traffic problems in this area. Meanwhile, in the target area, measures for providing information on traffic congestion and accidents on roads and highways have not been effective, they have been unable to properly distribute the flow of traffic, and have not been able to make effective use of the road infrastructure, therefore the development of the traffic information providing system is considered to be a matter of urgency. Conventional traffic information providing systems use information obtained by vehicle detection sensors at the side of the road, which detect the speed and volume of passing vehicles in a given space of time, along with information collected through other means on things such as road traffic accidents, which is gathered at a traffic center, and can be given via roadside variable message signboad and other media such as radio or television as well as traffic information provided by road users via the Internet. However, the problem lies in the limited intervals at which the traffic information sensors are placed. Given the mobility of individual vehicles, in order to provide effective coverage of any given area, it is necessary to install a significant number of sensors, so keeping the amount of work and the necessary costs low becomes an issue. Therefore, by using sensors to measure the speed and actual position of vehicles and people, and the information gathered via the network, it is possible to provide traffic information by relying less on physical infrastructure and at a low cost, so the introduction of the probe traffic information system is considered to be effective. Summary-1

3 (2) Basic policy on determining project contents It is assumed that Jasa Marga Expressways Company (PT. JASAMARGA), which will manage the probe traffic information system there, will become the corporate entity at the center of this project, acting as operator of the traffic information system and is primarily intended as a provision company. Also, it is assumed that drivers will be provided with general information from traffic information providing operators via existing media (radio stations, cellular phone content providers, and so on). Also, since even in Japan, the profitability of road traffic information providers is not necessarily going to be high, the road traffic information providers in the target area will be at the center, and with the view of cooperation with other ITS services, we conducted studies into several business models presumed to be feasible. (3) Project outline 1) Business outline This project is to provide services as shown in Figure 1. That is to say, the primary contractor Traffic Information Center is to use probe to gather information on the speed and position of trucks and trailers, and then processing it to generate traffic information. That traffic information can provide a driving reference for trucks and trailers, and operations managers can create revenue by utilizing this to provide a service to logistics companies. Also, by providing the administrative bodies and highway companies with traffic policy and improvement plans, plans for maintenance work can be utilized. In addition, it is presumed that by making use of the probe information and vehicle equipment, the highway companies can utilize new business developments (for example non-stop ETC). Summary-2

4 Figure 1 Project implementation structure and distribution of probe traffic information Trucks and trailers Usage fees Probe traffic information Logistics companies Usage fees Probe traffic information Congestion information Accident and transport stop information Most suitable route Time per section Congestion forecast information Estimated collection and delivery time information Area marketing Administrative organizations (Roads / traffic management) Tracking traffic volume, congestion Traffic forecasting Traffic accident countermeasures Traffic / town planning Road Traffic Information Center New company, providing probe traffic information, to be established by japan and Indonesia for this project Trucks and trailers Probe information location and speed and ETC charge information Highway management companies (Jasa Marge etc.) Congestion information Accident and transport stop information Time per section Congestion forecast information Non-stop type ETC charge information Source) Study team 2) Overview of results of total business costs & preliminary financial/economic analyses a) Total Business Costs The total business costs projected to be required to start operations by the operating body of this service are estimated as described below, as 53.7 billion rupiah. System Architecture: 17.5 billion rupiah Software/Analysis Engine: 7 billion rupiah Customer Management Functions (incl. ETC system linking): 29.2 billion rupiah b) Preliminary Financial/Economic Analysis Overviews of results of financial/economic analysis for this project are described below. Table 1 Overview of results of financial/economic analysis Financial NPV 61 billion rupiah Analysis FIRR 14.6% Economic B/C 1.46 Analysis EIRR 15.2% Source) Study team The above analyses were performed with adoption rates for traffic information for the year 2030 assumed to be approximately 40% (trucks: 65%, general vehicles: 30%), with long-term interest rates for Indonesia as 8%. Summary-3

5 3) Study of environmental and social aspects By implementing this project, various types of traffic information is provided, the average travel time will be reduced and is therefore expected to contribute to a reduction in exhaust emissions. Also, because this project does not involve large-scale construction, there is not a significant effect on the surrounding area and does not lead to relocation of residents or land acquisition. (4) Implementation schedule We examined the project implementation schedule covering building system environment, offering road traffic information and integration with ETC. Table 2 Project implementation schedule Years after start of project System environment construction Digital road map preparation ETC system and related preparation e-toll Card system service operatioin Non-stop type ETC service operatioin Source) Study team (5) Feasibility of implementation We examined the project implementation schedule covering building system environment, offering road traffic information and integration with ETC. Systems and other maintenance costs are estimated to be 53.7billion rupiah. Based on the assumed business model s financial and economic analysis results, the traffic information coverage rate will be 50% for trucks and 20% for general vehicles in 2030, and if the ETC cooperation rate is 60% for trucks and 30% for general vehicles, NPV will increase, the FIRR will be higher than local long-term interest rates, and therefore it was determined that implementation of the project is feasible. Additionally, this project is considered to be a project of the private sector, but it will take time before it becomes financially stable. In order to advance the project from a long-term point of view, a scheme incorporating public funding is thought to be favorable. Summary-4

6 (6) Advantages of the technical aspects of Japan s corporations In Japan, subscription to the probe traffic information system is gaining popularity, mainly with automakers. Also, some companies provide independent services such as NRI- Ubiqlink. This kind of approach, but as a commercial service that provides probe traffic information to multiple companies and organizations, has already led to the advantages of Japan s corporations. One reason is that a number of the components of probe traffic information are produced in-house. A function of probe information collection in Japan, and in addition to growing popularity of car navigation systems, is that it can be applied to commercial use for taxi dispatch management systems. The majority of these products use domestic components and technology. Also, using the knowledge gained from the creation of Digital Road Map (DRM), the link nodes needed to operate the probe traffic information system can be installed. Furthermore, the engines used to generate the probe traffic information as well as most of the main components, are made using domestic technology and knowledge, so this is a great advantage. Also, from the viewpoint of the utilization of probe traffic information, many probe traffic information applications are in this market for taking advantage of the widespread use of cellular phones and advanced mobile network systems combined with sophisticated management service expertise. As with CCTV - which is in general use in the field - and traditional traffic counters, compared to infrastructure type traffic information collection systems, costs for capital spending can be restrained, and at the same time, the time frame for system introduction can be shortened as well. Also, while only local information can be obtained by CCTV and traffic counters, probe traffic information systems can obtain all info for routes traveled by vehicles, allowing for the provision of high quality service to users. (7) Specific schedule of project implementation and its estimated risk. We received various reactions at the hearings held in related locations, from the results of the experiments. Different from the vague traffic information gathered until now, the quantitative traffic information was easy to understand and interesting. But they will want to Summary-5

7 know more specific and detailed information including the reason for traffic congestion occurs on certain days of the week and time, the result may be different if we collect the data for longer term. Including the business model study of the smooth introduction of this project, and future initiatives for the implementation of this project, we must continue to provide information to meet the specific needs of the related groups. However, since there is concern about the benefits of simply implementing traffic information alone, we have been asked to work with an ITS service with the focus on traffic information with the aim of meeting the needs of potential users. In particular, a) developing the services tailored to the needs of the logistics companies b) cooperating with the ITS promotion organization (ITS Indonesia) in the target area c) looking into how to work with companies providing traffic information d) seeking the necessary planning and integration with relevant ITS, found in the Master Plan Study for Establishing Metropolitan Priority Area for Investment and Industry (MPA). Summary-6

8 (8) National survey map showing the area within which the project will be implemented Figure 2 Target regions and routes Tanjung Priok Jakarta Bekasi Karawang Industrial park Source) Prepared by the study team using a Google website Summary-7