STUDY OVERVIEW. Federal Railroad Administration Southeast Regional Rail Planning Study. Stakeholder Group Workshop 1 Columbia, South Carolina

Transcription

1 Federal Railroad Administration Southeast Regional Rail Planning Study Stakeholder Group Workshop 1 Columbia, South Carolina STUDY OVERVIEW SEPTEMBER 20,

2 CONNECT What is CONNECT? Features of CONNECT When to use CONNECT Limitations Inputs/Outputs (Cost and Demand Data) Previous CONNECT Applications Midwest Discussion

3 Overview of CONNECT Tool What is CONNECT? CONceptual NEtwork Connections Tool Sketch planning tool for estimating performance of passenger rail corridors and networks Estimates order of magnitude ridership, revenue, and costs Intended for use during initial stages of a planning process, primarily in a regional network context Broad market based (MSA MSA) level of detail

4 Overview of CONNECT Tool Features of CONNECT: Excel-based: Broad-based platform User-defined: Network customized by user Fully integrated: A single action by user runs ridership, revenue, and cost calculations Flexible: Advanced users can adjust assumptions Complete: National database Costs and benefits linked: Evaluates costs associated with achieving higher levels of service and ridership Provides Data not Answers

5 Overview of CONNECT Tool When to use CONNECT: Provide analytic base to decision making process in early phases of planning Provide relative comparisons between corridors and networks As coarse screen to identify most compelling visions for further study Analyze importance of connecting corridors in the context of a more detailed study Estimate existing travel market between metro regions and develop estimates for future travel

6 Overview of CONNECT Tool Overview: Limitations Limitations of CONNECT: Not a substitute for detailed corridor and network planning Not a corridor ridership tool Not GIS enabled market based analysis limits ability to account for station locations, alternative alignments, which may have large impact on ridership and costs Intercity markets only will miss short distance trips (less than 50 miles) and commute trips Costs driven from generalized assumptions, not detailed operating plan

7 CONNECT Inputs/Outputs Travel Demand/ Revenue User Inputs / Default Assumptions O&M Cost Network Performance Outputs Capital Cost MSA Pair Segment Corridor Network Ridership / Revenue X X X X O&M Costs X X Capital Costs X X

8 Travel Demand Calculations Stage 1 Demand Models Intercity Auto Demand Model Local Air Demand Model Connect Air Demand Model Stage 2 Auto Diversion Model Local Air Diversion Model Connect Air Diversion Model Mode Choice Models Rail Auto Rail Air Rail Air Stage 3 Induced Demand Model Diverted Rail Ridership Induced Demand Model Total Rail Ridership

9 CONNECT Inputs Features: Basic Inputs Corridor Definition MSA Name Frequency of Service (All Stop, Limited Stop) Airport Connection (Y/N) Service Tier Physical Characteristics Number of Stations Existing vs. New Alignment Public ROW vs. New Acquisition Investment level by development type (e.g. Urban-High) Freight volume and track quality for service on existing lines

10 CONNECT Inputs Features: Advanced Inputs Advanced Inputs Include: Unit Costs (Capital, O&M) Operating Characteristics (avg. speeds, transfer times) Fleet Characteristics, Facility Assumptions Ridership Factors (value of time, congestion, fares, rail access time)

11 CONNECT Outputs Outputs: Output Dashboard

12 CONNECT Outputs Outputs: Detailed Outputs

13 CONNECT Outputs Outputs: Detailed Outputs

14 Sample of CONNECT Demand Data A sample of 2010 travel flows from the CONNECT database showing: Rail Trips Auto Trips Air Trips o Local Air (Trips Between Sampled MSA Pair Only) o Connect Air (Multi-State Air Trips With One Leg on Sampled MSA Pair)

15 Rail

16 Auto

17 Air (Local)

18 Air (Local and Connect)

19 All Trips by Mode (Total, Auto, Local Air, Rail)

20 All Trips by Mode (Local Combined)

21 Southwest Sample Results: Southwest Tested Alternative Network Configurations: Direct from Riverside Core Express L.A. 55 Riv / S.B. S.D Miles Phoenix Trip Time Phoenix to: Riv. / SB: 114 Min. LA: 141 SD: 152 Riverside via Yuma Core Express Riv / S.B. L.A S.D. Yuma Phoenix Trip Time Phoenix to: Riv. / SB: 129 Min. LA: 157 SD: 168 Via El Centro / Yuma Core Express Riv / S.B. L.A. 55 S.D El Centro 170 Yuma Phoenix Trip Time Phoenix to: Riv. / SB: 158 Min. LA: 183 SD: 118

22 Southwest Sample Results: Southwest Tested Alternative Network Configurations: Direct from Riverside Core Express L.A. 55 Riv / S.B. S.D Miles Phoenix Initial Capital Investment Annual Ridership Annual Ticket Revenue Annual O&M Cost $12 $16 B M $1,000 1,280 M $ M O&M Cost Recovery Ratio Riverside via Yuma Core Express Riv / S.B. L.A S.D. Yuma Phoenix Dif from Opt 1 Initial Capital Investment $13 18 B $ B Annual Ridership M -- Annual Ticket Revenue $1,010 1,310 M $10 30 M Annual O&M Cost $ M $20 40 M O&M Cost Recovery Ratio (0.1) Via El Centro / Yuma Core Express Riv / S.B. L.A. 55 S.D El Centro 170 Yuma Phoenix Dif from Opt 1 Initial Capital Investment $14 20 B $ B Annual Ridership M ( M) Annual Ticket Revenue $770 1,070 M ($ M) Annual O&M Cost $440 - $650 ($40 M) O&M Cost Recovery Ratio (0.3 )

23 Southwest Sample Results: Southwest Used data to analyze total impact of network connectivity: Markets Served 1 Annual Ridership 2 Annual Ticket Revenue O&M Cost Capital Cost 3 Sum of Stand Alone M $5.2 - $6.0 B $3.6 - $5.2 B $180 - $250 B Network M $7.4 - $9.3 B $3.2 - $4.7 B $150 - $200 B Difference + 126% % % 10-11% 17-20% All costs in 2010 $ 1. Total number of market pairs on network with maximum of one transfer 2. Year 2050 intercity demand 3. Capital figure excludes land costs

24 Texas Network Network 2A DFW-HOU Total Network Capital: $22.5 Billion Additional Capital for non-okc to SAN: $7.6 Billion Total Network Ridership: 24.9 Million HOU-DFW Ridership: 10,630,075 DFW-AUS/SAN Ridership: 8,509,322 HOU-AUS/SAN Ridership: 3,442,897 Total Small Market Boardings: 291,158 Network Rail Mode Share: 32.3% All content is DRAFT and intended for discussion purposes only.

25 Texas Network Network 2B DFW-CST-HOU Total Network Capital: $22.7 Billion Additional Capital for non-okc to SAN: $7.8 Billion Total Network Ridership: 25.0 Million HOU-DFW Ridership: 10,561,832 DFW-AUS/SAN Ridership: 8,509,322 HOU-AUS/SAN Ridership: 3,417,824 Total Small Market Boardings: 404,076 Network Rail Mode Share: 32.5% All content is DRAFT and intended for discussion purposes only.

26 Texas Network Network 4A AUS-CST-HOU, DFW-CST-HOU Total Network Capital: $25.5 Billion Additional Capital for non-okc to SAN: $10.6 Billion Total Network Ridership: 25.9 Million HOU-DFW Ridership: 10,561,832 DFW-AUS/SAN Ridership: 8,509,322 HOU-AUS/SAN Ridership: 4,221,887 Total Small Market Boardings: 417,141 Network Rail Mode Share: 33.5% All content is DRAFT and intended for discussion purposes only.

27 Texas Network Network 4B AUS-CST-HOU, DFW-WAC-CST-HOU Total Network Capital: $23.3 Billion Additional Capital for non-okc to SAN: $8.4 Billion Total Network Ridership: 25.7 Million HOU-DFW Ridership: 10,400,109 DFW-AUS/SAN Ridership: 8,509,322 HOU-AUS/SAN Ridership: 4,221,887 Total Small Market Boardings: 425,286 Network Rail Mode Share: 33.4% All content is DRAFT and intended for discussion purposes only.

28 Illustrative Analysis of TX Networks Summary Relative Values Network Option Total Network Capital Total Network Ridership HOU-DFW Ridership Additional Capital for non OKC- SAN DFW- AUS/SAN Ridership HOU- AUS/SAN Ridership Small Market Total Boardings 2A DFW-HOU B DFW-CST-HOU C WAC-CST-HOU D AUS-CST-HOU E AUS-HOU F SAN-HOU A SAN-HOU, DFW-HOU B SAN-HOU, DFW-CST-HOU C AUS-HOU, DFW-HOU D AUS-HOU, DFW-CST-HOU E AUS-HOU, WAC-CST-HOU F SAN-HOU, WAC-CST-HOU A AUS-CST-HOU, DFW-CST-HOU B AUS-CST-HOU, WAC-CST-HOU Rail Mode Share All content is DRAFT and intended for discussion purposes only.

29 CONNECT Update The FRA is currently undertaking a study that will update CONNECT. The updates will include: Refreshing the underlying database with more recent data Incorporating the intercity bus mode and its competition with HSIPR service Extending the study area geography beyond the continental US to include some portions of Canada and Mexico Enabling the tool to analyze 15 study corridors as opposed to 10 in the original version Adding high-level cartographic output functionality Adding benefit-cost analysis (BCA) functionality Expected availability early November Will be heavily applied to this Southeast Regional Planning Study 29

30 New Features in Tool Update Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) Will use results of the ridership, revenue and cost calculations to generate a time stream of project annual benefits and costs covering all the years of the project life span The project s benefit-cost ratio and net present value are calculated with proper discounting The benefit-cost analysis methodology follows the FRA s Benefit-Cost Analysis Guidance for Rail Projects, issued in June 2016 Cartographic outputs Will include a cartographic output module, enabling the user to view interactive maps that present the following information: o Network CBSAs, rail segments, and corridors o Existing and projected travel demand for auto, air, existing rail, and bus at the CBSA pair level o Forecast rail ridership at station, segment, corridor, and CBSA pair levels Will also allow the user to export standard GIS files of this information; the files can then be imported into GIS software of the user s choice for further processing 30

31 Application to the Southeast Regional Rail Planning Study Will provide sketch planning support for various aspects of several study tasks Baseline conditions analysis and market opportunities assessment Network design and service plan concept Corridor investments and maps prioritization Ridership, revenue and cost forecasts production Very high-level financial analysis Benefit cost analysis 31

32 Thank You 32