Simulation of transport system

Transcription

1 8 September 2015 Flavio Marangon Mobility & Logistics Unit Manager Transport Division D Appolonia

2 Table of Contents: Introduction Simulation Approaches Process Simulation Microsimulation Simulation of Transport System Why? Planning, Feasibility Studies, Design Support Demand Analysis Demand Model Supply Analysis Assignment and Calibration Scenarios Definition Results Analysis Example: Sectram

3 With a history 150 years, RINA is a global Corporation serving Clients worldwide; our mission is to support the growth of Client businesses offering consulting & engineering, testing, inspection and certification. Consulting & engineering services within RINA are provided by D Appolonia S.p.A. This brand, originally established in 1956, joined RINA in Recently D Appolonia s capabilities, staff and experience have been increased by merging C.Engineering, Projenia and part of RINA Services, making the company a market leader. D'Appolonia is a team of engineers, consultants, designers, planners and specialists supporting public and private Clients from concept to decommissioning, through consultancy, design, management, operation and maintenance.

4 Markets and Competences: TrainMoS II Project Module 2.1.1: Maritime sustainability and MoS ENERGY ENERGY TRANSPORT AND INFRASTRUCTURES IFIs AND INVESTORS IFIS & INVESTORS TRANSPORT AND INFRASTRUCTURES

5 Mobility & Logistics Transport Division TrainMoS II Project Module 2.1.1: Maritime sustainability and MoS PLANNING STUDIES MASTERPLANS PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT - MODELING MULTI MODAL ASSESSMENTS - TECHNICAL AND FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY STUDIES - COST-BENEFIT AND MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS - ENERGY EFFICIENCY/SUSTAINABILITY - ENERGY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS DEFINITION AND GUIDELINES FOR IMPLEMENTATION - CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR SPECIFIC TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS - CAPACITY BUILDING AND TRAINING - ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES - ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL DUE DILIGENCES AND AUDITS

6 Mobility & Logistics Transport Division TrainMoS II Project Module 2.1.1: Maritime sustainability and MoS Technical Advisory / PMC Services on 25+ Mass Transit Systems in 12 Countries Technical Advisory / PMC Services on 11 Driverless Metro/LRT Systems Engineering services for km of High Speed Railway lines 25+ Feasibility and design services for Port Facilities 70+ Bridges and Viaducts Designs 500+ Industrial and Civil Buildings Designs 5 National Coastal and Land Border Control Systems Designs 50+ Urban Development and Mobility Projects

7 Simulation Approaches Macro Demand Analysis Supply Analysis Interaction between Demand-Supply Evaluation of characteristics and perfomance Micro The model considers each vehicles For example to study road intersections and metro and railway systems Process All components of the process are considered Applied to study logistics process It considers also statistical data (e.g. Availability of the components)

8 Process Simulation Process All components of the process are considered Applied to study logistics process It considers also statistical data (e.g. Availability of the components) Process Analysis to understand which are the components to be considered Each components must be analysed to understand how can be simulated which element must be used Each component must characterized in term of performance (capacity, time to complete the sub process, rules which influence to execution time, etc.) The components can be also characterised from a statistical point of view (e.g. Availability) Also the weather conditions and their influence and occurancy can be implemented (e.g. The probability to have strong wind or fog) Usually the system is simulated considering a long period time (e.g. one year)

9 Process Simulation The results consists in a very detailed descrption of the system: What happens and when These results can be used also the have a very realistic representation (animation based on the results)

10 Microsimulation Micro The model considers each vehicles For example to study road intersections and metro and railway systems ROAD INTERSECTION: All the characteristics of the intersection must be inserted in the model (lane widht, traffic light, etc.) The traffic volumes must be characterised in terms of composition (car, motorbike, light duty vehicles, etc.) The behaviour of thr driver must be considered

11 Microsimulation The results can be used to: Review the design of the intersections Optimise the phases of the traffic lights Provide some video that can be used to illustrated the results in a «no technical way» Progetto Definitivo Ore: 8:05 Ore: 8:10 Progetto Esecutivo The use of these tools is reccomended to verify the real capacity of the intersections, results which can not provided by the symplified methods. Ore: 8:15

12 Microsimulation Before After

13 Microsimulation RAILWAY LINE: Micro The model considers each vehicles For example to study road intersections and metro and railway systems All the characteristics of line must be inserted in the model (lenght, tortuosity, inclination, signaling system, etc.) The different trains must be characterized in terms of speed and accelaration) The interactions rules among the different trains must be specified

14 Microsimulation the railway line The results are: The real capacity of the line, that depends also from the services (more in general the performance of the system) The timetable Information about energy consumption

15 Simulation of Transport System TrainMoS II Project Module 2.1.1: Maritime sustainability and MoS Macro Demand Analysis Supply Analysis Interaction between Demand-Supply Evaluation of characteristics and perfomance No TECHNICAL DEFINTION: The simulation of transport system consists in the implementation of a sw tool that allows to know which are the traffic volumes along a transport network and wich are the travel times and the costs. The results can be used for economical and environmental analyses Supply Demand Traffic Volumes

16 Simulation of Transport System TrainMoS II Project Module 2.1.1: Maritime sustainability and MoS The interaction of: Supply Demand Demand: number of displacements Supply: transport infrastructures and transport (and/or logistics) services Allows to know the status of the transport system: Traffic volumes Traffic Volumes Travel time Congestions (level of services) Costs of transport

17 Why? Feasibility Studies and Design Support TrainMoS II Project Module 2.1.1: Maritime sustainability and MoS The simulation is used to support: Feasibility Studies (and preliminary design): the first step of a feasibility study consists in the technical sustainability verification. With the simulation it s possible to compare different alternative solution and select the most appropriate. The outcomes are the base for some of the environmental analysis (pollutant, CO2, noise emission, etc.) and for the Cost Benefit Analysis and for the financial analysis (e.g. calculation of the revenues on the base of the traffic volumes) Design Support: the results of the simulation can be used as input (or verification) for the definition of the main characteristic of a new infrastructure (e.g. number of lane for a new road)

18 Demand Analysis Zoning System for new Brenner Railway Tunnel Usually the simulation consists in defining: the demand the supply The demand is represented by the OD MATRIX (Origin Destination Matrix). The first step consists in the definition of the zoning system dividing the study area in homogeneous zones. These zones are the origins and the destination of the considered displacements.

19 Demand Analysis Zoning System for new Brenner Railway Tunnel The procedure of simulation consists in searching the routes (mono- and/or multimodal) that satisfy each O/D relation and to distribute on them, proportionally to the total generalized cost associated with each route, the total flow of the O/D considered.

20 Demand Analysis From Zoning System to OD Matrix

21 Demand Analysis The cell of each row i of the trip matrix contain the trips originating in that zone which have as destination the zones in the corresponding columns. The main diagonal corresponds to intra-zonal trips. Therefore Tij is the number of trips (in a given time-interval and in proper units) between origin i and destination j; the total array is [Tij] or T; Oi is the total number of trips originating in zone i; and Dj is the total number of trips attracted to zone j. Attractions Generations j z Sum j (T ij ) 1 T 11 T 12 T 13 T 14...T 1j...T 1z O 1 2 T 21 T 22 T 23 T 24...T 2j...T 2z O 2 3 T 31 T 32 T 33 T 34...T 3j...T 3z O 3 i T i1 T i2 T i3 T i4...t ij...t iz O i z T z1 T z2 T z3 T z4...t zj...t zz O z Sum i (T ij ) D 1 D 2 D 3 D 4 D j D z Sum ij (T ij )=T

22 Demand Analysis A transportation demand model can be defined as a mathematical relationship associating the average values of demand flows with their relevant characteristics to given activity and transportation supply systems. In formal terms, it can be expressed as follows: dod [K1, K2,...] = d(se, T; β) Where: d od : average travel demand flow between zones o and d with characteristics K 1, K 2,...: relevant characteristics of travel demand flow; SE: socio-economic variables related to the activity system and/or to the decision makers; T: level-of-service attributes of the transportation supply system; β: cohefficients of the model.

23 Demand Analysis Freight transport demand is closely connected to the production and distribution of goods, i.e. to the economic system under study and to its interactions with external economic systems. dod [K1, K2,...] = d(se, T; β) Where in this case: d od : movements of quantities of freight (usually expressed in tons); K 1, K 2,...: relevant characteristics normally associated with goods typology (raw materials, semi-finished products, finished products, etc.), with economic activity sectors, with industrial logistics characteristics (e.g. shipping frequency and size) as well as with modes of transport; SE: variables are those of the economics of production (value of production by sector, number and size of local units, etc.) and consumption; T: variables of transport system times, costs, service reliability, etc.); β: cohefficients of the model.

24 Demand Analysis Number of users in zone o Emission or Frequency model Socio-economics attributes SE Performance attributes T Distribution Model Mode Choice Model Conditional to Taking into account Input variables Path Choice Model

25 Demand Analysis D od Emission or Frequency model + = Distribution Model Mode 1 Mode Choice Model = Mode 2 Path Choice Model Mode 3 Network flows

26 Supply Analysis The main component of the supply are: Infrastructures Transport services The supply analysis consists in the collection of all this information and in their schematization creation of a transport network. The network is made by a set of monodirectional and monomodal oriented links. A link is defined by its two nodes of extremity, sequentially provided according to the orientation of the link. Usually the supply characteristics are associated to nodes and links Railway Network Road Network MODEL

27 Supply Analysis Railway Network Multi-Intermodal Network for the tariff study for the new Brenner Railway Tunnel Road Network MODEL

28 Supply Analysis The main characteristics considered to model a transport infrastructure are: Geometrical characteristics; Capacity (quantity of transport unit per time unit) Relationship between speed and flow (how change the speed in relationship of the traffic volumes)

29 Supply Analysis The generalised cost perceived in crossing a link, or a monomodal route-segment, or a complete route, can be generically defined as follows: C = Cm + A Ct + B Cr + C Cs + D Ca + E Cb where: C: total generalized cost of the route or link; Cm: monetary cost (out-of-pocket cost); Ct: time cost, definable as a function of the unit value of time (conversion coefficient from TEMPO to EURO Kt); Cs: cost of the risk (security, comfort); Cr: delay cost, definable proportionally to the time cost; Ca: cost of the centroidal accessibility; Cb: bonus/malus cost (discount or extracost).

30 Assignment and Calibration TrainMoS II Project Module 2.1.1: Maritime sustainability and MoS ROUTE RESEARCH The construction of the tree of the routes relevant to an O/D couple is controlled by the conditions imposed to the route. The applicable conditions shall be the followings: the route must be composed by possible links, i.e. links of mode (either transfer or interchange mode) specialized for the specific type of assigned freight/user; the route must be composed by active links, i.e. not inhibited for particular reasons (congestion, closures, etc.); the route must be composed by a mix of modes compatible with the imposed constraints in the current so-called "loop of activation" of the constraints.

31 Assignment and Calibration TrainMoS II Project Module 2.1.1: Maritime sustainability and MoS MODAL SPLIT Generally di OD matrixes are mono-modal. So each matrices is assigned to a specific network. In some sw one or more O/D matrices are assigned to a multi-intermodal network. The assignment and modal diversion procedure is systematically applied within a multiple loop where are defined in sequence: an O-D relation (origin node, destination node, total displacement volume in freight tons or users) i.e. an element of the O-D matrix; a type of freight (or of users) relevant to the displacement; a modal type (and equivalent link modal type); constraints and conditions imposed to the construction of feasible routes.

32 Assignment and Calibration TrainMoS II Project Module 2.1.1: Maritime sustainability and MoS MODAL SPLIT The procedure foresees the following steps: 1) evaluation of the generalized cost associated to the crossing of the each admissible link; 2) search of the tree of all feasible routes (sequence of links) that lead from the origin to the destination; 3) ranking of found routes by increasing cost; 4) evaluation of the generalized total cost associated to each feasible route; 5) assignment of the current O-D relation to all retained routes, by splitting the total flow, by use of a specific formulation (e.g. Logit), as a function of the generalized total cost associated to each route; 6) accumulation of the flows within the links that compound each feasible route.

33 Assignment and Calibration TrainMoS II Project Module 2.1.1: Maritime sustainability and MoS MODAL SPLIT The OD flow is subdivided among all the routes found in memory, each one having an associated generalized cost. The memory contains the sorted set of the routes obtained by application of all the "activation loops". The flow subdivision among multiple routes is of Logit type: Fk = Fij * Pk / sum(pk) Pk = EXP [ -FAL(c) * Ck/Ckmin ] where: Fk : flow assigned to the k-th route Fij : total flow of O-D relation from origin i to destination j FAL: factor assigned in input (for each freight/user type) Ck: generalized cost of the k-th route Ckmin: genralized cost of the minimum-cost route

34 Assignment and Calibration TrainMoS II Project Module 2.1.1: Maritime sustainability and MoS CALIBRATION The calibration consists in comparing the outputs with observed value: Observed Simulated Usually the comparison is done considering: But also Traffic volumes Travel time Modal split CALIBRATION A model can be calibrated as follows: Review of the attractiveness of the network Review of the assignment criteria Modifying the OD matrices

35 Scenarios Definition Temporal Scnarios Short (e.g. Completion of the infrastructure that we are evaluating) Medium (e.g year) long term (e.g year) Demand Analysis Collection of GDP forecast Supply Evolution New infrastructures Evaluation of the probability of completion of these

36 =100 TrainMoS II Project Module 2.1.1: Maritime sustainability and MoS Scenarios Definition 140 GDP and Transport The classic approach consists in correlate the variation of transport proportionally with GDP variation. Usually for each year 2-3 subscenarios are defined: Trend of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), High Passenger Traffic and the Medium Freight Traffic Italy - Years Low Traffico Passeggeri (pkm) Traffico Merci (tkm) PIL (a prezzi costanti; anno rif. = 2000) Trend of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), AV (Added Value) and the Cargo Traffic Italy - Years PIL VA Traffico Merci

37 Scenarios Definition The concept of High, Medium and Low, can be applied also to the supply analysis. All the project and all the new initiatives, when the copletion time is not well defined, can be classified in 2 categories: Potentially competitor (when it can reduce the attractiveness of a new infrastructure) Favorable(when it can increase the attractiveness of a new infrastructure) Low Medium High Low GDP increase Presence of Competitor Infrastrcutres Average condition High GDP increase Presence of Favorable Infrastructures

38 Results Analysis The main results are: Traffic volumes Level of service Travel time Congestion phenomena Revenues coming from the infrastructures But also input for environmental analysis: Energy consumption Pollutant emission CO2 emission Noise emission

39 SECTRAM Project

40 SECTRAM Project The scope was to evaluate the capacity of the transport system during the execution of some intervention on the road network. For this scope has been developed a multimodal simulation model to consider also the railway transport and the maritime transport

41 SECTRAM Project Study Area Road Networks

42 SECTRAM Project Railway Networks

43 SECTRAM Project Ferrovia From Data To The model Strada Marittimo

44 SECTRAM Project Zoning System

45 SECTRAM Project Simulation Results in a GIS (Geographic Information System)