Europan Parliament, Brussels, April 11, 2017 C. Doll, L. Mejia-Dorantes (Fraunhofer ISI), J.M. Vassallo (UPM)

Transcription

1 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INTRODUCING ROAD CHARGING FOR HGVS. COMPARING GERMANY AND SPAIN Europan Parliament, Brussels, April 11, 2017 C. Doll, L. Mejia-Dorantes (Fraunhofer ISI), J.M. Vassallo (UPM) Sources: Toll Collect (left), (right)

2 AGENDA Objectives and Framework Toolbox of methods Comparison of the toll systems Results by topic area Final remarks Page 2

3 Objectives and framework of the study Objectives Understand how the HGV toll systems in Germany and Spain work. Assess their impacts on: Logistics markets and company structures; Economy and financing; Safety and environment. Develop recommendations for expanding the Spanish system in La Rionja, North-East Spain and Jaén, Southern Spain Some key data Client: Transport & Environment, Brussels Coordination: Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany Partner: Polytechnic University of Madrid (UPM), Spain Duration: Budget: Page 3

4 Toolbox for an integrated impact assessment ASTRA-EC System- Dynamics integrated assessment model Literature review Impact Assessment Logistics market, labour conditions, economy, financing, sustainability National & regional statistical data analysis Supportive questionnaire and interviews with stakeholders Page 4

5 Page 5

6 Comparison of the German and the Spanish toll systems Issue Germany Spain Start 2005 Late 1960s Purpose Organisation Length of toll roads Revenue Road quality, mode shift, environment Public. private contractor for toll collection km motorwaylike roads; km from Stable at 4.3 bn. p.a., 40% by foreign trucks New high capacity & quality roads 32 companies including actual and shadow tolls 3307 km national (83%) & regional roads 2002: 2.2 bn., 2012: 1.3 bn., domestic truckers mainly Page 6

7 Results (1): Transport Efficiency Criterion Germany Spain Share of empty runs Share of small hauliers International competition Rail / shipping share at tkm 20% consolidation before 2005, little toll impact 48% With 50 employees, some toll impact 38% Foreign truckers on German roads 18% / 10% Stagnating; +5% rail tkm with double toll 43% no tendency for consolidation 91% with 5 employees, mainly family business <10% foreign haulage; protected market 6% / 36% Rail barriers; +12% tkm with German toll Efficient use of truck load space (DE) Share of loaded trips Utilizationo f loaded vehicles Overall efficiency in trucking Distance travelled per ton lifted Spain Italy Europe Efficiency gains through company restructuring Mode shift needs high quality alternatives Germany France Page 7

8 Results (2): Economic Performance Criterion Germany Spain Cost increase for truckers 2% - 3% Transport costs +15%; 80% born by industry Profit margins 1% - 6% Larger margins for big companies Consumer price impact GDP growth / employment +0,5% 2%-3% share of tolls at product costs +/- 0 2 nd round impacts / use of revenues decisive 3% - 5% Weak position due to atomised market n.a. with 5 employees, mainly family business n.a. Literature suggests similar to Germany +0,13% Rich regions gain more; inequality remains Share at total logistics companies 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 82% Logistics companies <50 employees in Germany 80% 75% 68% Goods road transport enterprises, by number of employees in Spain From 1 to 5 employees 91.0% 91.8% 70% 60% From 6 to 9 employees From 10 to 19 employees From 20 to 49 employees 5.1% 2.5% 1.4% 4.7% 2.3% 1.3% % Haulage sector impacts depend on company structures Macro economic impacts small and driven by revenue use Page 8

9 Results (3): Budget, Revenues and Infrastructure Criterion Germany Spain Annual Revenues Road deficit / funding gap Infrastructure quality 4.3 bn. Stable over past years; system extension bn. Unclear use of toll revenues Declining 20% of bridges in alarming condition 1.3 bn. Drop from 2.2 bn. in 2002 with crises 6.6 bn. Bankruptcy risk for concessionaires Declining Massive funding gap through economic crisis Sunk cost coverage needs high traffic density Close funding cycles needed Intermodal infrastructures need clear cross-funding arrangements Page 9

10 Results (4): Sustainability Criterion Germany Spain German truck fleet by Euro standard External costs in base case 2030 / % Growing CO 2 unit costs; efficient fleet -48% per HGV km. Older / less efficient fleet Change in extgernal costs due to tolls Climate gas emissions -0.5% due to emission differentiated tariffs -0.07% Conservative w.r.t. propulsion technology <-0.06% Low density; mode shift to (clean) shipping <-0.06% Less budget for fleet renewal Age structure of the Spanish truck fleet2015 more than 15 years 23% years 19% Total Less than 2 years 10% 6-10 years 33% 2-3 years 7% 4-5 years 8% Overall environmental impacts remain limited Environmental effects driven by tariff structure Differentiated tariffs require costly charging system Page 10

11 Final Remarks Road tolls are primarily an instrument of fund raising The sustainability of road tolls depends on: Use of revenues Structure of tariffs The economic impact depends on local conditions Small hauliers need special attention No major macro-economic impacts New introduction of extension of tolls needs communication Check the situation of local businesses Involve all stakeholders Consider alternatives to distance based tolls for peripheral countries Page 11