Baltic-Adriatic Core Network Corridor

Transcription

1 Baltic-Adriatic Core Network Corridor Fourth Corridor Forum Meeting Prepared by LeighFisher Jacobs Polska NDCON Paradigma Astra-project University of Maribor Fourth Corridor Forum Meeting Brussels, 21 st November 2014

2 Content Towards the BA Corridor work plan Summary of study activities: Scope of the BA Corridor study and work plan Study tasks and main outcomes Planned investments: Summary of investments by action and sub-action Relevant projects and critical issues BA Corridor work plan assessment: Market and benefits assessment 2

3 Summary of study activities Scope of the BA Corridor study and work plan Study activities and main outcomes

4 Scope of the Baltic Adriatic Core Network Corridor Study and Work Plan Support the coordinated development of the corridor focusing on the key priorities set by Regulation EU 1315/2013 Study target: To provide to the European Commission, the European Coordinator and the Corridor Forum with a technical basis for the definition of the Baltic-Adriatic Corridor (BA Corridor) work plan Work plan objective: To provide the basis for a coordinated development of the corridor by all stakeholders, focusing on the key priorities from the European perspective, including: Bridging missing links and removing existing bottlenecks (especially cross-border) Developing interconnections and promote multimodality (particularly at ports) Supporting the implementation of ITS/ICT initiatives (especially ERTMS) Stimulating, accompanying and supporting measures for the coordinated and effective development of the BA Corridor 4

5 Baltic Adriatic Corridor study Study tasks Identification of the stakeholders and support in the organisation of the BA Corridor Forum Analysis of the alignment of the BA Corridor and encoding of the TENtec system to elaborate the BA Corridor maps Identification of the critical issues on the basis of: Analysis of the compliance to EU Regulations 1315/2013 and 1316/2013 Analysis of capacity issues (market study) Review of previous studies (including list of pre-identified projects) Consultation with the stakeholders Identification and analysis of the list of investments Assessment of the market and impact associated to the implementation of the proposed investments 5

6 Summary of analysis of critical issues Analysis of the compliance to EU Regulation 1315/2013 and 1316/2013 Cross-border and missing links 6 rail cross-border sections and 2 road cross border sections require modernisation/upgrading to comply to EU requirements Alpine Crossings represent the only two missing links along the BA Corridor Last mile connections to transport nodes Ports: all interconnected but requiring modernisation or improvement of last mile infrastructure Airports: Warsaw and Vienna already interconnected RRTs no critical issues at present ITS/ICT for interoperability ERTMS not deployed, emaritime, VTMIS and RIS under implementation, SESAR (Vienna), EETC (not implemented) National railway lines Poland and Slovenia requiring modernisation to comply to EU requirements Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Italy requiring upgrading of lines and improvements at junctions and nodes National roads: Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia requiring completion of modernisation of the motorway network 6

7 Summary of analysis of critical issues Analysis of capacity issues Rail capacity is not a generalized short term issue for the corridor: possible capacity issues, which may become particularly critical in the future are: Urban nodes: Warsaw and Katovice Wien Ljubljana Sections: Ostrava-Prerov-Brno (CZ) Werndorf and Wiener Neustadt AT) Road capacity is also not a generalised short term issue; the only section currently above the critical level of 20,000 veh/day identified within the urban area in Bratislava, where projects for a new external by-pass are already on-going Upon completion of the work plan capacity issues may exist at the following major urban nodes: Brno, Warsawa and Bologna (in these last two cities in a more limited extent) 7

8 Planned Investments Summary of investments by action and sub-action Relevant projects and critical issues

9 Summary of the work plan Investments by action and sub-action Actions Development of the railway infrastructure Development of the road infrastructure Development of the port infrastructure Development of the airport infrastructure Development of the RRT infrastructure Development of the urban node infrastructure Sub-Actions BA Corridor 1.1 Cross-border 4, Missing links 8, National railway lines 16, ERTMS Specific environmental and safety measures 2.1 Cross border 3, National roads 13, ITS and ETC Specific environmental and safety measures 3.1 Developing interconnections 1, Modernization / Expansion of the infrastructure 3.3 Technological upgrading and innovation , Specific environmental and safety measures 4.1 Developing interconnections 1, , Modernization / Expansion of the infrastructure 4.3 Technological upgrading and innovation Specific environmental, safety and security measures 5.1 Developing interconnections Modernization / Expansion of the infrastructure 5.3 Technological upgrading and innovation Specific environmental and safety measures Development of the urban transport infrastructure Total 57,363.1 Allocation by action: 53% railway 30% road 10% ports 7% airports, RRTs urban nodes The projects indicated by the stakeholders are overall assumed to support the modernisation of the railway and road BA Corridor network to TEN-T standards No initiatives are included relating to horizontal issues and the promotion of intermodal transport along the Corridor Additional investments can be included in subsequent updates of the study and work plan Inclusion of investments in work plan does not define eligibility under CEF and vice-versa

10 Cross-border sections Expected modernisation/improvement and envisaged costs Rail cross-border sections Katowice (PL) Ostrava (CZ): Railway section Raciborz (PL) Bohumín (CZ): Ready by 2019; cost 45.8 million Katowice (PL) - Ostrava (CZ); [Zebrzydowice (PL) Petrovice u Karviné (CZ)]: Ready by 2021; cost 1,247 million Katowice (PL) Žilina (SK); [Zwardoń (PL) Skalité (SK)]: Ready by 2019 (PL) (SK); cost million Břeclav (CZ) Vienna (Stadlau); (AT) [Břeclav (CZ) Hohenau / Bernhardsthal (AT)]: Ready by 2015 (CZ) (AT); cost million Bratislava (SK) Vienna (Stadlau) (AT); [Devínska Nová Ves (SK) Marchegg (AT)]: Ready by 2019 (SK) - to be defined (AT); cost million Graz (AT) Maribor (SI); [Spielfeld-Straß (AT) - Sentilj (SI)]: Ready by 2020 (SI) - to be defined (AT); To be defined (SI), million (AT) Trieste (IT) - Divača (SI); [Villa Opicina (IT) Sežana (SI)]: Ready by 2016 (studies) (works to be confirmed); cost million (IT), to be defined (SI) Road Road section Katowice (PL) Žilina (SK): Ready by 2020 (PL) 2023 (SK); cost 2480 million Road section Brno (CZ) Wien (AT): Road section Pohorelice (CZ) Schrick (AT): gradual completion by 2020 (AT) and (AT-CZ); cost 845 million Road section Trieste (IT) - Sežana (SI): under bilateral negotiation 10

11 Saeport last miles Modernising last mile connections and supporting the growth of intermodal transport Mid short term investments Modernisation of last mile connections to ports is on-going and planned in the short term also to solve compliance and capacity issues at the ports on the Baltic, as well as at Trieste Improvement of the rail and road infrastructure within port areas is also planned in the short term in most of the ports along the BA Corridor including the Polish port and Venice Improvement of the main railway lines to the ports is also on-going and planned at Ravenna and Koper Long term investments Last mile connection improvement works, as well as seaport rail and road infrastructure within the terminals are also planned at the BA Corridor ports for the future, to support expansion of the port infrastructure 11

12 European Rail Traffic Management System deployment plan ERTMS is not expected to be deployed on the entire BA Corridor sections before 2030 Status on the implementation of ERTMS: Railway line E65, section Grodzisk Mazowiecki Zawiercie, is already equipped with ETCS Level 1; No GSM-R In the section Zlatovce Bratislava, ETCS L1 is also already in operation; No GSM-R ETCS Level 2 and GSM-R are expected to be in operation between Bernhardsthal and Vienna HBF (Main Station) by end of 2014 In use Expected Completion of Works on BAC sections Poland No 2030 Czech Republic No Slovakia No 2020 Austria No Italy No Slovenia No 2020 Time-schedule of ERTMS deployment on the following sections is not defined Skalité Čadca Blumental Wampersdorf Pragersko-Maribor-Šentilj 12

13 Improving standards and performance of the railway network Network modernisation almost completed by 2030 The two Alpine Crossing (missing links) are expected to be completed by 2023/2024, for a total investment cost of about 8.5 billion Modernisation of railway lines: Significant investments are already on-going in Poland regarding the modernisation of their network By 2020 completion of the modernisation of the Polish rail network (8.6 billion) completion of the modernisation of the Slovenian sections and development of higher quality lines particularly for passengers in CZ, AT and IT (8.1 billion) 13

14 Improving standards and performance of the highway network Network modernisation almost completed by 2020 Modernisation of the road network in Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia is planned to be completed by 2020 (9.2 billion) Other improvement works are planned between 2020 and 2030 to solve capacity and environmental related issues predominantly at nodes (3.9 billion) 14

15 BA Corridor work plan assessment Market and benefits assessment

16 Overview Scope and methodology Our Transport Market Study (TMS) pursues a three fold propose of: Providing a comprehensive view on the current multimodal transport flows on the rail and road network for passenger and freight; Measuring the current performance and developing a prognosis of the evolution of rail and road transport along the corridor; Supporting the definition of the critical issues on the BA Corridor. 16

17 Assessed scenarios 2014, 2030T, 2030WP, 2030RP Four main scenarios were developed for the prognosis of the rail and road performance, gradually introducing different assumptions on a step-by-step basis Current scenario Current demand Current infrastructure Do Nothing scenario at 2030 Current Infrastructure Demand at 2030 Work Plan scenario at 2030 Demand at 2030 Work plan investments Rail Policy scenario at 2030 Demand at 2030 Work plan investments Policy and admin. measures 17

18 Performance of the rail transport system Train traffic flows on the BA Corridor (trains/day, 2014) The highest level of traffic is in the central section between Graz and Ostrava, with traffic volumes peaking in the urban area of the Wien node and between the Prerov junction and Ostrava. Country Section Pax Freight Total Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Austria Italy Slovenia Entire corridor

19 Performance of the road transport system Vehicle traffic flows on the BA Corridor (vehicles/day, 2014) The current road traffic volumes on the BA Corridor infrastructure are relatively constant in the sections belonging to Slovakia, Austria, Italy and Slovenia, where traffic exceeds 30 thousands vehicle/ day; volumes are lower in Poland and Czech Republic, where the infrastructure is still under development Volumes are higher in the approach and within the main urban nodes, in particular Gdansk, Warsawa, Brno, Bratislava, Wien, Ljubljana, Venezia and Bologna Country Section Cars Trucks Total Poland 18,700 3,800 22,400 Czech Republic 13,800 4,200 17,900 Slovakia 27,200 6,400 33,600 Austria 33,500 4,000 37,500 Italy 31,300 11,200 42,400 Slovenia 31,500 9,100 40,600 Entire Corridor 23,900 5,400 29,300 19

20 The rail BA corridor as part of the core TEN-T network Rail passenger and freight flows along the BA corridor (2014) Passenger Freight 20

21 The road BA corridor as part of the core TEN-T network Rail passenger and freight flows along the BA corridor (2014) Passenger 21 Freight

22 Passenger Traffic Growth Growth of Trips ( ) In line with the expected population and particularly GDP per capita growth rates in the BA Corridor Member States, the increase in personal travel is higher in the northern regions of Poland, Slovakia and Czech Republic The corridor study area is estimated to register a 25% increase in passengers trips by

23 Freight Traffic Growth Loaded and unloaded tonnes ( ) In line with the projected GDP growth, in the BA Corridor Member States and trade with thrid commercial partners, freight traffic is expected to register higher increases in Poland, and particularly Slovakia and Czech Republic The total traffic demand growth for the corridor study area is forecasted to be 30% by

24 Impact of work plan investments on the rail flows Rail passenger and freight flows along the BA corridor (2030, work plan scenario) Rail flows in the work plan scenario grow along the entire corridor, due to the combined effect of modal shift and diversion from alternative routes Passenger 24 Freight

25 Impact of work plan investments on the road flows Road passenger and freight flows along the BA corridor (2030, work plan scenario) Flows on the road network increase on sections where road improvements projects are located, mainly due to diversion from alternative routes. Traffic reduction due to modal shift generally occurs, but it is not visible at this scale Passenger Freight 25

26 Passenger transport market: key performance indicators Performance and modal share of the BA transport modes (millions of pax*km/year) The current rail modal share is around 13% for passengers (measured in pax*km) Without any significant investment, rail share is expected to be stable for passengers (13%) As a result of the work plan investments, the rail demand will overcome the current market shares (15%); The combination of the workplan investments and the implementation of policy and administrative measures maximizes the benefits for the rail transport, with market shares rising to 23% of interregional demand for passenger 26

27 Freight transport market: key performance indicators Performance and modal share of the BA transport modes (millions of tons*km/year) The current rail modal share is around 19% for freight (in tons*km); the rail modal share is higher for long distance freight transport (39%) - already above the 2030 freight modal share target of the 2011 White Paper (30%); In the do-nothing scenario, rail freight share is expected to slightly decline (18%) In the do-something scenarios rail market share for freight grows up to 21% in the work plan scenario and 24% in the rail policy scenario (43% for long distance transport). 27

28 Socio-economic benefits Benefits of the do-something scenarios (millions of 2010 /year) Indicative and partial quantification of the main benefits associated to the work plan for the inter-regional TEN-T road and rail flows due to: passengers travel time savings air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. The benefits generated for the inter-regional demand alone are in any case significant in both the do-something scenarios: around 400 million /year (2010 prices) in the Work Plan scenario, over 600 million if additional policies to increase the competitiveness and efficiency of the rail transport system are implemented 28

29 Next Steps

30 Next steps towards the BAC work plan Envisaged content of next deliverables Deliverables Deadline Final Study Report sent to the European Commission 5th December 2014 Work plan issued to the Member States 22nd December 2014 Comments and additional information to the fourth progress report should be provided to the consultants by end of November 2014 Contractor: LeighFisher Limited: Roberto Zani Sub-contractors: Jacobs Polska (Poland) Izabela Kaczmarzyk Frank Klaptocz Enrico Bernardis NDCon (Czech Republic and Slovakia) Jan Kasik Paradigma (Austria) Rudolf Bauer Astra project and University of Maribor (Slovenia) Stane Bozicnik 30

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