European Economic Interest Grouping (EEIG) corridor D TECHNICAL TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE TRANSPORT MARKET STUDY ON THE EUROPEAN FREIGHT CORRIDOR 6

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1 TECHNICAL TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE TRANSPORT MARKET STUDY ON THE EUROPEAN FREIGHT CORRIDOR 6 1

2 Table of Contents Introduction Objectives of the Transport Market Study Scope of the Transport Market Study Transport Market Study approach Study phases Analysis of the current situation The socio-economic and transport policy context The transport market characteristics along the corridor Surveys Revealed Preferences surveys Stated Preferences surveys Short and long term demand forecasts

3 Introduction The European Parliament and the Council adopted on 22 September 2010 the EU Regulation 913/2010 concerning an European rail network for competitive freight. Within this rail network, the EU has selected 9 initial European freight corridors. Among them, the European Freight Corridor 6 includes the railway connection Almería- Valencia/Madrid-Zaragoza/Barcelona-Marseille-Lyon-Turin-Milan-Verona-Padua/Venice- Trieste/ Koper -Ljubljana -Budapest -Zahony. Connecting points with corridors 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7 are located in Milan, Lyon, Verona, Madrid, Venice/Trieste and Budapest, respectively. This EU Regulation has been established to reach two main goals: Develop the rail freight corridors in terms of infrastructure capacity and performance in order to meet market demand both quantitatively and qualitatively Lay the groundwork for the provision of good quality freight services meeting customer expectations. In accordance with EU Regulation 913/2010, a Transport Market Study related to each freight corridor must be made. It is important that this Transport Market Study shows a clear corridor perspective with a coherent structure for the entire corridor. It should not be a collection of studies focused on individual Member States. 1 Objectives of the Transport Market Study The main objective of the Transport Market Study for European Freight Corridor n.6 (from now on the Corridor ) is to provide a clear understanding of the current conditions of the multimodal freight market along the Corridor together with short and long term freight traffic forecasts consequent to the implementation of the Corridor at the end of year 2013 and to propose a measurement of the modal shift from road to rail which can be reasonably forecast. The study serves as the basis for the assessment of customer needs, through a corridor perspective. The study should analyse and present the main market elements of the corridor and contribute to the preparation of the Implementation Plan of the Rail Freight Corridor n.6, pursuant to art. 9 of the Regulation (EU) 913/

4 2 Scope of the Transport Market Study The Transport Market Study shall: 1) analyse the current situation in terms of transport supply and demand and economic context 2) analyse the transport market in terms of customer needs and deliver information on modal choice process, 3) perform rail transport demand projections after implementation of the European Freight Corridor Transport Market Study approach The study shall be based essentially on two types of analysis: - the first one will be an on-desk analysis on the macroeconomic context and on transport supply and demand - the second one will consist in two kinds of surveys on the transport market of the European Freight Corridor 6: A Revealed Customer Preferences survey on existing freight transport services, A Stated Customers Preferences survey on future/ not existing freight transport services. 3 Study phases The study will consist in 3 main phases: - Analysis of the current situation - Surveys - Short term and long term transport demand forecasts. 3.1 Analysis of the current situation The study shall include information on the following aspects: The socio-economic and transport policy context The commercial sphere of influence to be considered in the European Freight Corridor 6 taking into account different geographic levels of administration (Intercontinental, Europe, EU Countries, territorial units such as NUTS 1, 2, or 3, etc.); The general socio-economic situation in the relevant countries (population, GDP, and other relevant variables which influence traffic levels). The geographical situation of this specific corridor crossing 5 borders and two mountain chains and the different specificities of the transport in each Member state considered The development plans of the different ports included in the corridor. 4

5 Regulation /law affecting transport market in each Member State considered The transport market characteristics along the corridor The study shall cover all transport modes within the sphere of influence of the corridor. It shall also include, when relevant, inter-corridor connections Current transport supply It shall cover the state of infrastructure along the corridor and define characteristics and quality of the infrastructure within the catchment area. For each transport mode studied in the catchment area ( Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia, Hungary), at least the following elements shall be described: Road transport: - freight terminals, logistic centres, (for example: localization size, connections with other networks, characterisation of logistic services, etc.) - length of roads and typology, travelling time and cost, cross border time and cost transit time and cost (toll), regulation for each state member etc.); - etc. Rail transport: - a description of service levels of rail transport, such as working timetable and transit times between terminals, number and duration of stops along the itinerary, total travelling time and cost, cross border time and cost, train frequency, punctuality, etc; Coastal shipping and / or inland waterways: - ports and logistics terminals, characteristics like: size, intermodal connections with other networks, characterisation of logistic services, distance between facilities, eventual limitations regarding transport ships, volumes of transported goods and typology, etc.; The main transport players of the corridor for each mode Current freight demand A description of the current corridor transport demand market, both in qualitative and quantitative terms, shall be carried out also with the aim of driving the sampling strategy as per point As regards the collection of existing transport flows data, reference could be made, among others, to the following sources of information: ETIS Data Base Cross alpine freight transport - CAFT 5

6 Road transport survey across the Pyrenees 2010 (same as CAFT 2010) National data bases (Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia and Hungary) National and international studies in the corridor Data have to refer to the last available year after the economic crisis. In case of missing statistics or in case of data collection in different years, the consultants have to fit and to harmonize the data in the most appropriate way. Moreover, a modal split analysis will have to be performed by type of commodity, category of freight ( single wagons; completed trains ; containers..) and by class of travelled distance. 3.2 Surveys In order to investigate current and potential customer behaviour, the study shall envisage a detailed market research. In accordance to point 2.1, revealed and stated customer preferences surveys shall be carried out. At least three groups of customers of the European Freight Corridor 6 shall be taken into account: Railway undertakings and other applicants that operate on the corridor today; Railway undertakings and other applicants which do not operate today, but might become interested in doing so in the future; Other applicants such as shippers, freight forwarders, logistics service providers and other operators of other modes of transport that are/could be clients of railway undertakings Revealed Preferences surveys Revealed Preferences shall at least investigate information on the following aspects: the volume/type of goods by O/D (in terms of Tons, TEU, eventually type of ITU - intermodal transport unit containers, etc. ) current modal choice and modal choice decision-making process transport attributes recognised to all modes: journey time, punctuality, transport costs customers expectations and customer requirements for freight transport critical factors related to customer decisions and planning average loading by train category and by commodity expected growth rate of traffic in the short and long term Stated Preferences surveys Stated Preferences shall point out the potential attractiveness of the rail mode against the overall freight market and assess the customer needs, investigating the willingness of shippers, freight 6

7 forwarders, logistics service providers and other operators to use rail transport - instead of other modes - as a consequence of alternative options of rail service scenarios. With reference to both surveys, the following tasks shall be carried out : Task 1: design of the sample strategy and design of the questionnaires, containing at least: - One or more focus groups and stakeholder interviews to support the definition of questionnaires on revealed and stated preferences - A pilot survey to test the 2 type of questionnaires (Revealed Preferences and Stated Preferences) - A fine tuning of questionnaires. - A sampling strategy referred to the three groups of customers as per point 3.2 Task 2: realization of surveys on revealed preferences and stated preferences Task 3: analysis of the outcomes of the Revealed Preferences survey Task 4: analysis/modelling of the outcomes of the Stated Preferences survey containing at least: - Market segments - Potential market (in terms of tons) - Market share of the Corridor (in terms of tons) - Sensitivity analysis of the main drivers (cost, travel time, punctuality, security, safety, etc.). 3.3 Short and long term demand forecasts The study shall provide freight demand forecasts on the Corridor by transport mode in two time horizons ( ), as a consequence of the implementation of the European Freight Corridor 6. Demand forecasts will be based on on-desk analyses linking macroeconomic trends to transport demand and will be duly complemented by the outcomes of the Revealed and Stated Preferences surveys. The analyses will deliver the demand forecast in terms of tons, number of trains, number of lorries and the modal split. 7