European Decision Professionals Network Decision Making Maturity in Aviation

Transcription

1 European Decision Professionals Network Decision Making Maturity in Aviation Friday 5 October 2012 Bernard A. Lacroix EUROCONTROL The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

2 EDPN Conference Competing through quality of strategic decisions EUROCONTROL & Competition 2.Enhancing competitiveness by adopting structured decision analysis EUROCONTROL Decision Analysis Guidelines 3.Decision Making Maturity in Aviation Future steps and the new generation! General Presentation 2

3 Competition 1.Competing through quality of strategic decisions EUROCONTROL & Competition 2.Enhancing competitiveness by adopting structured decision analysis EUROCONTROL Decision Analysis Guidelines 3.Decision Making Maturity in Aviation Future steps and the new generation! General Presentation 3

4 One day s traffic General Presentation 4

5 ATM Organizational Elements Tasks: Regulate (EC/EASA/NSAs) Operate/coordinate (Network Manager & Functional Airspace Blocks) Research (SESAR) Structures: Single European Sky Committee (European Parliament) SESAR (SJU) Network Manager (ECTRL) Industry consultation body Actors European Commission/ EUROCONTROL/SESAR JU States/Service Providers/Airspace Users (Airlines, Military, General & Business Aviation)/Airports/ ATM Industry Goals: Safety/Environment/Capacity/ Cost-Efficiency/Flight Efficiency/ Predictability/Flexibility/ Access & Equity/ Interoperability General Presentation 5

6 EUROCONTROL Structure SINGLE SKY 31.1 M NETWORK MANAGEMENT M SESAR and RESEARCH 81.2 M Route Charges 22.8 M Maastricht Upper Air Centre M Corporate Functions 86.8M General Presentation 6

7 EUROCONTROL & Competition? A profound mutation (corporatization, liberalization, end of monopolies) A tough competition for resources: Internally: 770 in 2000 to 670 million of in 2012 (constant ) Externally: airlines struggling for surviving; fierce competition (low cost carriers but also service providers) General Presentation 7

8 Struturing the Decision Process 1.Competing through quality of strategic decisions EUROCONTROL & Competition 2.Enhancing competitiveness by adopting structured decision analysis EUROCONTROL Decision Analysis Guidelines 3.Decision Making Maturity in Aviation Where are we? Future steps and the new generation! General Presentation 8

9 Decision Analysis Guidelines & Ethics: EMOSIA Effectiveness: make the right decisions on ATM investments; weigh the risks; take uncertainty into account; evaluate project value; develop a system view Efficiency: avoid duplications and useless efforts; focus on what does really matter; use quick wins types of workshops ( agile model development) Consistency: use of standards and methods across projects and across project life-cycle Progression: use stepped approaches Transparency: avoid hidden agendas/ biases; be understandable; multi-stakeholder approach respecting all stakeholder s perspectives; meet multidisciplinary team of experts as required General Presentation 9

10 Effectiveness: Value-Centrism, Alternatives, and Uncertainties Business Model Canvas (Alexander Osterwalder) Influence Diagrams (Bayesian Networks) Use of AOC Data Provides better accuracy: - Mass - Speed 16-42% of increased Altitude Accuracy depending on aircraft type: mass & speed In climb phase Improved TP accuracy (medium term conflicts detection: 5 to 20 mins) reduces missed conflict alerts reduces false conflict alerts -10 % on number missed climb/* conflict Alerts -10% on number of false climb/* conflict alerts reduces safety incidents Improved CTRL workload % of reduced number of safety incidents % improvement of Planning Controller Workload Improved safety Safety Effective ness Increases CTRL productivity % increase of Planning & Executive Controller Productivity Reduces need for additional resources % saving resources Reduces additional costs Financial Cost Effective ness General Presentation 10

11 Efficiency: focus on what really matters and re-use existing material A continuum from Trade-Off to Cost benefit analyses Tornado Diagrams ASSESSMENT Raising & solving issues Trade-off analysis Cost benefit Analysis Providing values & recommendations (E)VALUATION () V0 ATM Needs V1 Concept Definition V2 Feasibility V3 Integration V4 Industrialisation V5 Deployment V6 Operations V7 Decommissioning V0 V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7 General Presentation 11

12 Consistency Guidelines for Producing Benefit Mechanisms Document information Project title Project N Project Manager Deliverable Name Deliverable ID Business Case Maintenance, Support and Coordination EUROCONTROL Guidelines for Producing Benefit Mechanisms D010 Edition Abstract This document provides Guidelines for Producing Benefit Mechanisms. It provides a Benefit Mechanism production process for primary projects to follow and information to help X.2 / federating projects support their primary projects. General Presentation 12

13 Progression: encased processes Life-cycle Business Case Process Progression Business Case Process Scope & Alternatives Benefit & Life-Cycle Stakeholder & Criteria Cost 1 2 Phase s Dependencie Mechanisms 6 Assessment 7 Consolidation s Modelling Process Look back and iterate " General Presentation es Evaluate Ranges Verify/Validate 13 Six Ste ps To ols Process " Define Collect Select Evalua te Identify Collect Assess Ranks " Generat e model Analyse Cause-Effect Build Models " " " Analyse Analyse Decide sensitivi risk ty Analyse Output Analyse Decision Recommend

14 Transparency Practical, structured design rules for modeling Cross-check design Structured models: Workbook design Worksheet design Line item design Excel features to be used or not in modeling Seeking for ownership rather buy-in: stakeholder s involvement Challenge: Verify/Validate/Calibrate General Presentation 14

15 Maturity 1.Competing through quality of strategic decisions EUROCONTROL & Competition 2.Enhancing competitiveness by adopting structured decision analysis EUROCONTROL Decision Analysis Guidelines 3.Decision Making Maturity in Aviation Lessons learned, future steps and the new generation! General Presentation 15

16 Lessons learned The CASCADE Programme: When the bottom-up probes the top-down Trade Off Analysis is not antagonistic with Business Case Analysis More can be done with less Portfolio management is almost there The Business and General Aviation Business Case: when you need to know your business models (and your values) to value your projects All in one: accompanying as efficiently as possible a cultural change under pressure of life General Presentation 16

17 CASCADE Programme 1. Preliminary Models 2. Generic ANSP/Airport Model 3. Specific ANSP/Airport Models 6. Analysis 7. Business Case 4. Generic Airline Model 5. Specific Airline Models General Presentation 17

18 General and Business Aviation Project General Aviation Corporate aviation Fractional ownership operations Business aviation (or travel) Personal/private travel Air tourism Recreational flying Air sports (aerobatics, air races, competitions, rallies, etc) Aerial Work Aerial crane operations Aerial survey and charting Agricultural flights (crop dusting) Aircraft sales demonstration Banner towing/advertising flights Environment surveillance and enforcement Ferry flights/delivery flights Flight demonstrations (air shows) Fire fighting (forest fires, etc) Glider towing Medical evacuations Nostalgy flights in historic aircraft Pilot training (from private to airline pilots) Research and development flights Search and rescue Sight seeing flights Skydiver hoisting Supplies dropping Test flights Traffic surveillance Transplant organ transport TV-live reporting Weather research Pipeline and power line patrol Day 1: Problem???????????????????? Non-scheduled transport Air taxi operations State VIP transports Air police/custom aircraft High ADVERSE IMPACT Low SESAR impact on GA/BA Activities Personal Transport (GA non commercial) Group 5 Leisure Group 6 Low Day 1: Grouping & Ranking BA Non Commercial Group 2 Pilot Training Group 4 BA Commercial Group 1 GA Commercial (Aerial work) including Rotorcraft Group 3 POSITIVE IMPACT High General Presentation 18

19 GA/BA: Day 1 & Day 2 Day 1 Day 2 General Presentation 19

20 Current and Next Steps Wiki-engineering and design of the modeling material Quantifying/Monetizing safety for the General & Business Aviation Business Case Post-mortem Analysis Linkage between Retrospective (PRU), Prospective (BCU), and Targetting Applying the full life-cycle process for a given project from VO (Initial) to V7 (Decommissioning) Project Portfolio Management General Presentation 20

21 You can count on them! Paula, Team Leader Anne Kirsteen Désirée Hilde Marco General Presentation 21

22 Links EUROCONTROL Economic address: EUROCONTROL Economic Website: General Presentation 22