Toronto Future Blue Bin Project

Transcription

1 Toronto Future Blue Bin Project Vincent Sferrazza, City of Toronto Maria Kelleher, Kelleher Environmental OWMA AGM 2 nd March, 2011

2 Presentation Outline Vincent Sferrazza Introduction to Project and How Information from Toronto Future Blue Bin Study was used in Strategic Business Planning Process Maria Kelleher Toronto Future Blue Bin Study Research 2

3 SWMS Customer/Client Base 450,000 single unit homes 452,000 multi-unit homes 20,000 small commercial/institutional 6,000 litter/recycle bins / 1,000 Special Events Per Year City Agencies, Boards, Commissions & Divisions Private commercial and industrial waste accepted at Transfer Stations and Landfill 3

4 2011 Approved Operating Budget by Service Gross Expenditure (in Millions) Gross Expenditure - $342.6M 4

5 Summary of 2011 Capital Expenditures by Project ($122.5M) Transfer Station Asset Management, $8.9M, 7% Green Lane Landfill, $16.2M, 13% Collection Yard Asset Management, $4.3M, 3% Diversion Facilities & Systems, $82.5M, 68% Perpetual Care of Closed Landfill, $10.6M, 9% 5

6 2011 Revenue Sources ($342.6M) Includes all Service Level Changes and excludes New and Enhanced WDO Funding $14.7M, 4% City of Toronto - Waste Fees $39.0M, 12% Paid Commercial Waste $17.9M, 5% Internal Recoveries & Other $8.0M, 2% Other External Revenue $3.8M, 1% Sale of Recyclable Materials $19.6M, 6% Volume Based Rate Revenue $239.6M, 70% 6

7 Approved 2011 Residential Solid Waste Fees Based on a 3.00% SWM annual rate increase: 2011 Residential Curbside Collection Fees Bin Size Bin Fee Rebate Net Cost Small Bin $ $224 $2.84 credit Medium Bin $ $224 $47.93 Large Bin $ $224 $ Extra Large Bin $ $224 $ Residential Bulk Collection Fees Fee Structure Bin Fee Rebate Net Cost Small Bin - Base Fee $ $ $6.30 Fee for excess waste: un-compacted (per cubic yard) $13.27 $13.27 Fee for excess waste: compacted (per cubic yard) $26.55 $26.55 Residential Bag Tag Fees Residential Bag Tag Fee (per Bag Tag) Percentage Change Bag Tag $ % *Effective Rate March 1, 2011 is 3.6% 7

8 Background to Toronto Future Blue Bin Study 10-year Business Plan being developed Need to understand materials and amounts in the future Blue Bin for business planning Materials in Blue Bin are changing Lifestyles and packaging are changing Toronto Residential Garbage, Green Bin and Blue Bin tonnages all lower 2009 vs 2008 Need to understand what is going on and why 8

9 Toronto Future Blue Bin Study If Blue Bin material changes (e.g. more plastics, less newspapers) Impacts on collection system MRF designs need to change Material revenues will be affected Business Planning needs to take account of cost implications High level study to provide directional information 9

10 Toronto Blue Bin Material Revenues 71% to 75% of revenues from paper ONP 31% of bale 10% of revenues from aluminum 10% to 12% of revenues from HDPE and PET If paper decreasing, impacts on revenues could be significant 10

11 Toronto Future Blue Bin Project Research Maria Kelleher, Kelleher Environmental 11

12 Future Blue Bin Project Research future lifestyles Elements Research future packaging trends Carry out packaging audit Develop projections of Blue Bin tonnages and composition by material 12

13 Predicting the Future Is Challenging The Dilbert Future Read horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards or crystal balls Put well researched facts into sophisticated models Bigger picture life is changing and will continue to change The future is not more of the same not just faster computers, high tech cars, smarter homes, more TV channels Large body of work by futurists used for this study

14 Review of Literature on the Future Futurists: Centre for Future Studies; The Futurist Forum for the Future; World Future Society, etc More traditional literature: Canadian Food Trends to 2020 The Future Consumer (Capgemini, UK) The Future of Consumer Products Industry (IBM Global) Twilight of the American Newspaper The MRF of Tomorrow, Demographic Trends, etc.

15 Societal and Demographic Trends The Internet has changed everything Aging Canadians we are living longer Evolving Households smaller households Fewer Children More 1-person households 15

16 Lifestyle Trends Changing meal patterns fewer family dinners Shifting expenditures more take away food Newer faces in Canada larger variety of foods More food shopping via internet more food packaging Convenience is king Re-sealable packages More ready to eat meals More plastic packaging 16

17 The Death of Newspapers 17

18 Growth in US Internet Sales (as % of total sales) 18

19 Growth in Canadian Internet Sales ($ billion per year) 19

20 Printed Paper Trends in Future Blue Bin 1. Decline in newspaper generation and recovery 2. Reduction in telephone directory distribution 3. Home offices/working at home/printers in every home 1. increase in fine paper 20

21 Packaging Trends Light-weighting Increase in multi-layer packaging Material substitution (mostly plastic replacing glass, Al, steel) More fruits/veg packaged in thermoform plastic SUPs (stand up pouches) Re-sealable packaging 21

22 Lifestyle and Packaging Changes More smaller single serve packages More snack packaging More ready cooked meals and take out packaging (in thermoform plastic) Brand owner and retailer led initiatives Sustainable packaging Smart packaging can tell when food is beginning to decay Increase in bio-based packaging 22

23 Lifestyle and Packaging Changes on Future Blue Bin Relative amounts of fibre and containers will change over time More plastic, less paper Newsprint amounts will decrease over time Toronto ONP down 15% 2008 to 2009 OCC will increase over time Amount of plastic packaging will increase 23

24 Packaging Audits 24

25 Background To Toronto 2010 Packaging Audits Identify extent to which consumer items purchased in Toronto stores were in packaging which is: Recyclable now or Could be recycled in the future or Is unlikely to be recycled in the future Look at packaging audit methods used elsewhere and modify to suit Toronto 2010 circumstances 25

26 Packaging Audit Approaches From Other Jurisdictions War on Waste - UK Local Government Association purchase basket of goods (30) in 8 different stores to compare packaging efficiency Repeated 2007, 2008, 2009 The ULS (Use Less Stuff) Packaging Efficiency Study as it Relates To Waste Prevention (US) 300 products in different packaging formats Repeated 1995, 2007

27 Toronto 2010 Packaging Audits Purchased 150 items in large grocery store: Consumer Price Index list (60 items) reflected typical shopping basket in the early Blue Box years Use Less Stuff (ULS) US report list New products identified through store visit which would not have been popular when CPI started New packaging formats which are gaining in popularity Weighed empty package (each component) and package when full of product 27

28 Toronto 2010 Packaging Audits Categorize each component as: Recyclable now; Recyclable in all plastic film program; Recyclable in all plastics program; Not recyclable for foreseeable future Normalize the data to take account of typical annual purchases of each product.

29 Yogurt Packaging 24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary Briefing 29

30 Campbells Soup Steel Can 24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary Briefing 30

31 Advil Multiple Materials 24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary Briefing 31

32 New Plastic Packaging Formats 24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary Briefing 32

33 Re-sealable Caesar Salad Convenience Food Growing Rapidly 24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary Briefing 33

34 Cookies Different Packaging Materials 24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary Briefing 34

35 Stand Up Pouches (SUPs) Growing Rapidly 24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary Briefing 35

36 Toronto s Plastic Resin Identifcation Gun 24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary Briefing 36

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42 Packaging Audit Results By Weight 42

43 Packaging Audit Conclusions Audit provides snapshot of the range of packaging formats Many packages are recycled in current Toronto program All film program would increase diversion Increase in thermoform PET for wide range of products All plastics program would increase diversion Many multi-layer packages which are not recyclable

44 Toronto Solid Waste Strategic Business Planning Vincent Sferrazza, Director Policy and Planning, Solid Waste Management Services, City of Toronto 44

45 Recycling Component of Business Plan Future Blue Bin tonnages and composition impact on: Collection Processing Markets Revenues Solid Waste utility needs to plan for impacts of changes 45

46 Future Blue Bin Scenario Reviewed WDO Data on Trends for last 5 years Three scenarios based on Forum for the Future DEFRA work in UK, modified for Canada/Toronto situation: Status Quo focus on regional Fast Changes good economy, increased oil prices, focus on global Smaller World bad economy, very high energy prices, focus on local Developed Most Likely Scenario - Hybrid 46

47 Toronto Solid Waste Strategic Business Planning Process Projected 15% reduction in weight per household of printed paper and packaging in Blue Bin over 10 years: -18% paper kg/hh +17% plastic kg/hh Metals flat kg/hh -50% glass kg/hh 47

48 Strategic Business Plan Kelleher Environmental 2008 MF ABCD 2010 SF Composition 2020 Composition 2010 Tonnage Map Do No More 70% 2020 Tonnage Map Rates Do No More Rates Rates price 48

49 Conclusions Future Blue Bin Study identified that the world is changing at a rapid rate: Lifestyles are changing Packaging formats are changing All of these changes impact on Toronto s Solid Waste Business Planning process Need to refresh the lifestyle and packaging research annually or bi-annually to catch new trends and plan for their impacts