SCAF Workshop Support Solutions

Transcription

1 The following presentation was given at: SCAF Workshop Support Solutions Tuesday 7th June 2016 The Conference Centre, Ribby Hall Village, Preston Released for distribution by the Author

2 The Advantages of an Activitybased Approach to the design, development, implementation and control of a sustainment system for complex equipment Frank Murphy Principal Consultant TFD Group Preston, 7 June 2016

3 TFD Group TFD Group 3 companies TFD North America, TFD Europe and TFD Africa Started in 1970s in the US as a defence economics consultancy. Development of commercial software started in 80s and continues. Services and solutions Focused studies and analysis Tailored system development Professional seminars Software training, mentoring and temporary workforce supplement

4 Modelling Approach Understand the Problem. Develop a Concept of Analysis (CofA) Build the Model Explore System Behaviour Explore the Baseline system model, ensure that it sufficiently represents reality and that its outputs can be trusted (V&V). Experiment and Exploit. Evaluate options, evaluate benefits and conduct comparative analysis to underpin Business Cases. Manage and Control Once the system is in use, evaluate planned performance against the real world to identify any need for and the benefit of specific corrective action. This can be predictive to for early reaction to avoid system failure.

5 The TFD Decision Support System Broad Architecture Supply chain management Configuration management Logistic data automated update Operational & Maintenance Planning TFD Data Vault Logistic Data Repository Tactical processes and strategic planning functions share the same data Level of repair Life cycle cost Spares optimization Maintenance planning Operational planning Budget development and negotiation

6 TFD Software Architecture Control Planning

7 TFD Solutions Services and Products Logistic program management tools Logistic Planning modeling and cost analysis tools, training, services EDCAS LCC-based front-end design trades, Repair Level Analysis (RLA, LORA) Tempo and VMetric Multi-period and steady state spares optimization MAAP Total ownership cost (TOC) based on LSAR-level data, multi-resource optimization Logistic Control process management SCO Support chain optimization SIM Operations and maintenance planning where serial-tracked items dominate Logistic data management supports both planning and control tools TFDdV TFD Data Vault

8 TFD Solutions Services and Products TFD Data Vault - a central common structured database for all tools Purpose built to support logistics modelling & analysis To foster data re-usability always collected at high cost Many have tried to copy to our knowledge no success to date TFD software suite - the Supportability Workbench Addresses a wide range of issues and disciplines crucial to achieving operational objectives at least cost. For supportability analysis Software can be hosted in The Cloud

9 Life Cycle Cost; a MAAP model MAAP Model Structure PARTS PARTS Parts Parts Training Events SYSTEMS Maint Events Tools Tools SYSTEMS Maint Events Skills Skills Energy Energy Data Data Facilities SUPPORT Facilities UNITS SUPPORT UNITS Env STRUCTURE Env Consts Consts STRUCTURE Op Op Phases Phases Op Op Events Events Upgrade Events ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENT EBO Budget EBO Budget Other Costs Other Costs Contractor Support Warranty Contractor Support & Warranty Resource Endowment Resource Endowment Deployed Systems at Units Deployed Systems at Units S C E N A R I O MODEL RUN MANAGER Input Run Options Chart of Resource Analysis Accounts Cost Analysis Multi-Resource Optimisation Time Variance Events Reports REPORTS MANAGER Resource Reports Cost & Summary Reports

10 Operating & Maintenance Events Operating Event System Maintenance Events Resource Resource Resource Resource Resource Sub-System Sub-System Maintenance Events LRU LRU Maintenance Events Operating Events On Systems At Units At a periodicity (usage, hours, shots etc.) Consumes Resources In a Quantity With a certain probability For a time At a cost defined by the resource Maintenance Events At any level of indenture At Units by support level Consumes Resources In a Quantity With a certain probability For a time At a cost defined by the resource Resource Resource Resource Resource Resource

11 MAAP Life Cycle Costing MAAP is an event-driven, activity-based adding engine It handles automatically all the complex interactions of support

12 Modelling Uses In-Service A set of test cases (set by FMV Sweden) to define Supportability Workbench uses: Case 1 - Periodic re-optimization of support resources Case 2 - Options analysis to reduce costs while minimising loss of capability Case 3 - Continuous improvement reviews of options to either: Case 4 - Case 5 - Case 6 - Case 7 - Case 8 - Case 9 - Improve availability, Reduce the in-use fleet size, or Reduce future costs Supportability impact assessment of operational fleet deployments while maintaining training Supportability impact of task surge requirements Supportability impact assessment of major fleet programmes Cross-platform assessments of shared repair facilities New equipment design choices for obsolescence and upgrades Benchmarking support contract pricing Case 10 - Analysis of Level of Repair Strategy options break points

13 The Military / Political context The UK has been trying to conduct Defence Acquisition Reform since the end of the Cold War. We have sustained our Military Capability while fighting Gulf War 1, the Balkan wars and Kosovo, Gulf War 2, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. We now face threats from ISIL and an increasingly resurgent and belligerent Russia associated with Ukraine. we have downsized our Armed Forces numerically while maintaining combat power through increasingly complex technology. We are enduring significant austerity because of the global financial crisis Consequently there is extreme pressure within MOD and the armed services to Do More for Less Affordable Capability

14 Fundamentals of Military Capability & Supportability In addressing the affordability of Military Capability, it is essential to consider: The Total System The differing LCC profiles of Acquisition & Support Through-life thinking using LCC as a common metric is essential at all stages of a programme life, for successful, affordable Military Capability

15 The Total System What does It do? How is It Used? How much does It cost? COST Usage Pattern It Output REVENUE How much does It earn? What is It designed for? Equipment Design Support System How is It Supported? What is It s Environment? How does It all work as a Total System?

16 Determinants of Costs and Effectiveness Determining Conditions Support Cost Outcome Results Usage Deployment and Usage Design Hardware Characteristics Support Support Infrastructure Spare Parts Repairs Support Equipment Training Facilities Maintenance Labour Costs Technical Data Availability Cost Profit / Cash

17 Life Cycle Cost Typical project cost & influence profiles Cumulative % LCC % 95% Mid-life Upgrade Decisions Defining LCC Incurred LCC 85% PBL Contracts 70% Downstream PBL contracts often have limited room to make savings 50 Decision Point ILS Activity Project Decisions are often made before most ILS activity has happened Concept Formation Proposal Dev t Design & Dev t Deployment Through-Life Management Disposal Logistic Support must be addressed in the Equipment Development Phase

18 Integrated Support Planning & Control Usage Design Operating Events Failure Analysis Modifications Task Analysis / RCM Maintenance Events Support Resource Requirements by Location Manpower Training Spares Tools Infrastructure Technical Documentation Support Plans Supportability Audit Support & Maintenance Data

19 Integrated Support Planning & Control Achieving AFFORDABLE AVAILABILITY requires PLANNING and CONTROL PLAN CONTROL DESIGN FOR SUPPORT DESIGN THE SUPPORT IMPLEMENT SUPPORT TEST & EVALUATE SUPPORT SUPPORT THE DESIGN CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT

20 Logistic Support Planning & Control Plan & test in a model; not in the real world Typically missing is effective Control CONTROL requires FEEDBACK which requires VISIBILITY Model Decide Baseline Plan Execute Real Data Data Source Re-Plan Control Measure & Compare Field Data Act Don t Act

21 Advantages of an Activity Based Model It is easy to see the effect on the total system support cost through time of parts that are key cost drivers but are embedded deep in the system structure Example: reliability improvement modification of a sub, sub system Multiple systems can be treated as one system of systems Substantially increases reusability across Projects Reduced requirement for Verification and Validation Supports a closed loop between operational delivery, support solution and equipment design.

22 Optimising Support Developing a Power Pack Solution to Maximise Combat Power on Operations Support Chain Seminar 2015 Major Bobby Cowan REME SO2 Capability Development Combat Service Support Capability Directorate OFFICIAL

23 Background Return to Contingency Army Army Readiness Order VANGUARD. Two Ground Maneuver Brigades and one Maneuver Support Brigade. Up to Divisional Level Intervention. Army 2025 out to LAND JOINT STRIKE FOC CSS Force Very Different Equipment Support Demands C

24 Background Return to Contingency The need to Deliver efficiencies in the Equipment Support (ES) repair and supply chain. The imperative to exploit opportunities to reduce the logistic footprint (optimise). Deliver the highest levels of equipment availability required to (maximise) combat power. Common to all Force Level Power Pack Repair Capability. C

25 Deployable Power Pack Repair Facility (PPRF) VANGUARD SUPPORT Brigade. VANGUARD ENABLING Group. LJS Theatre Entry Force Support.

26 PPRF - Dependencies CHALLENGER 2. WARRIOR. AS90. TITAN & TROJAN. PPRF OSD of 2026.

27 PPRF - Future Dependencies? APOLLO and ATLAS AJAX WARRIOR CSP C

28 The Question Taking into account spares, repairs, manpower, resupply pipeline and infrastructure, conduct a cost benefit analysis to: Determine the best support solution for repair of Power Packs? In scope support solutions WERE: Level 3 repair by deployed REME. Level 3 repair centralised in UK manned by REME. Level 3 repair centralised in UK provided by contractor. Level 4 repair and overhaul in UK provided by contractor/s. C

29 The Challenge At Army level: The lack of objective data/metrics of sufficient accuracy and quality. The lack of robust and repeatable evidence to support decision making. The lack of methods, models and tools. Consequence: Decisions taken largely through Military Judgement Panels with reference to assumptions and post operational reports. C

30 Optimising Support Developing a Power Pack Solution to Maximise Combat Power on Operations Modelling and Analysis for Decision Support John Sharp TFD Group President Bristol 20 October 2015

31 Project Delivery Organisation CD CSS ES(L) in Army HQ Dstl QinetiQ - Defence Support & Logistics Framework TFD Europe

32 Project Work Breakdown WP 0 Management WP 1 WP 2 WP 3 WP 4 WP 5 Concept of Analysis Data Gathering Modelling & Analysis Cost Benefit Analysis Reporting Phase 1 completed Feb 2015 Phase 2 ongoing; reporting March 2016

33 Problem Definition Power Pack Repair Conduct cost benefit analysis for three options of power pack repair to contrast against the baseline of using deployed repair Determine the cost effectiveness of maintaining the platforms currently supported using the PPRF and the viability of supporting future equipments e.g. Ajax & family Quantify the impact on the Air Bridge Look across all anticipated deployment scenarios over the next 20 years

34 Vehicles Using PPRF Current Challenger 2 CRARRV AS90 Warrior (FV510, FV512, FV514) Titan Vehicle Trojan Future Warrior CSP (FV520, FV522, FV524) Ajax & Family

35 Concept of Analysis Aim to identify the most appropriate modelling approach to contrast the cost benefits of deployed power pack repair with UK based military or by a UK Contractor Purpose is to define: Modelling boundary Decision support information required Modelling tools & methods Decision Criteria for option selection - sensitivity Data Strategy type, sources, quality, gaps

36 Benefits-Led Modelling A Philosophy Model the What not the How Ignore the sacred cows of how Explore the cost of doing things differently When you have the costs You see what the potential benefits are relative to baseline Examine feasibility issues of doing the How You now have full cost/benefit envelope and business case arguments based on benefits

37 Modelling Approach Modelling each system individually will not take proper account of shared resources, and will bias towards R&O at Contractor (L4) Holistic modelling considers all systems at the same time Use activity-based cost modelling to support the PPR Cost Benefit Analysis Develop and populate a cost model using TFD proprietary tool MAAP to compare the cost of a Baseline with identified Options over 20 years

38 Modelling Approach Create the baseline model to represent the as is situation Create ABC models for alternatives and compare with the baseline to establish which of the options meets the decision criteria: The best option will be that with the lowest 20 year cumulative NPV cost on the basis of equal achievement of operational and maintenance commitments

39 Task Schedule

40 The 20 Year Analytical Scenario UK Trg UK TRAINING BATUS BATUS Legend: Deploy 1 Deploy 2 Deploy 3 Deploy 4 UK Trg BATUS Trg This scenario was agreed with Dstl and CD CSS ES(L).

41 Power Pack Modelling Options CAPABILITY BASED MAINTENANCE LEVELS REPAIR CAPABILITY LOCATION BASED MAINTENANCE LINES BASELINE Maintenance Level 3 Deployed Repair REME Manpower 2 nd Line Deployed Portable Wksp Option 1 Option 2 Maintenance Level 3 Maintenance Level 3 UK Repair REME Manpower UK Repair Contractor Manpower 3 rd Line Regional/Central/ UK DEPOT Option 3 Maintenance Level 4 Contractor Repair ` 4 th Line CONTRACTOR Maintenance Level 2 LRU Replacement REME Manpower 1 st Line LRU Replacement at Equipment Power Pack Repair Options Matrix Iss 2.vsd

42 Modelling Constraints No political or financial constraints imposed Greatest constraint was data availability

43 Data Sources and Collection Army HQ provided scenarios >150 Data sources From raw data to technical manuals All assumptions recorded in MDAL Collated and useable data deposited in TFDdV Example sources Equipment Structure: AESP -711 (IPC) Price & PLT: MJDI MTBF: Army HQ derived from JAMES + Independent Contractor Usage per vehicle type: Army HQ Maintenance Tasks & Spt Lvl: AESP-522/523 Maint. Resources: AESP-522/523 Contractor Repair Price: DE&S PT + Assumptions Contractor Repair Turn Round Time: DE&S PT + Analagous Assumptions

44 Data Sources and Collection A lesson learned - Phase 1 Experience Good Not good For Phase 2 PPR a tracking data collection process was introduced to avoid this

45 Modelling Outputs Inputs to Business Case Analysis Activities events use of resources costs Costs assigned to a chart of accounts via a Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS) CBS Ref Indenture 1 Cost Category Total Cost Indenture 2 Cost Category Indenture 3 Cost Category Indenture 4 Cost Category Ct Cm Maintenance Cm1 Parts Initial Parts Replenishment Parts Cm2 Tools Initial Tools Replenishment Tools Cm3 Skills Level 2 Skills Level 3 Skills Cm4 Contractor Repair As above

46 PPR Cost Results Option 3 Contract L4 repair Option 2 Centralised UK contractormanned L3 Option 1 Centralised UK REME-manned L3 Baseline Deployed L3 PPRF Deployed PPRF The Baseline is the least cost option over 20 years UK Official

47 PPR Cost Drivers Baseline Deployed L3 PPRF Option 1 Centralised UK REME-manned L3 Option 2 Centralised UK Contractormanned L3 Option 3 Contractor repair L4 Spares to populate Spares the to repair populate pipeline the repair are the pipeline biggest cost driver is the biggest over cost 20 driver years over 20 years UK Official

48 Sensitivity Analysis Model most sensitive to transportation time Cost of pipeline spares is driven by combination of factors: Operating distance from repair stations Decisions on support echelon locations Mode of transport Administrative delay time Other input parameters: Procurement lead time Part reliability unscheduled demand rate Mean time between maintenance scheduled demand rate Part price Mean time to repair (excludes transportation time) even combined had a lesser effect

49 Sensitivity Analysis Greater vehicle usage would increase the cost advantage of the baseline Fleet-wide LRU reliability improvement would narrow the cost differential to UK centralised repair Deployments further afield would increase spares costs strengthening the case for deployed repair Manpower is less than 20% of the 20-year throughlife costs The lowest 20-year NPV cost model the baseline remains unchallenged by the sensitivity analysis So far...

50 Next Steps Revalidate and take the best of the data from James, VERITAS and all other sources Re-examine scenarios to ensure the solution is robust Examine the How (Army HQ to decide who) alternative forward repair polices taking account of practical constraints to see what more can be recovered in the field (eg repair fractions), and at what cost Re-model to prove the Business Case

51 Conclusion Major Bobby Cowan

52 Exploitable Benefits The most cost effective option within the bounds of the study. An analytical model and toolset with robust supporting evidence that enables CSS evidence based decision making. Inform future ES solutions. Strategically Aligned Concept Based Evidence Based Financially Taut Capability Directorate Combat Copyright Service Support TFD Group. All Rights Reserved Worldwide

53 Exploitable Benefits Confirmation that REME off platform repair doctrine is compatible with the guiding principles in that: The most cost effective solution in terms of performance and cost of the ES repair and supply chain. Delivers the highest levels of equipment availability required to maximise combat power. C

54 Early Lessons Emerging analysis highlighted that some 1 st 4 th solutions may be less cost effective than forward repair solutions. A more comprehensive and coherent model based approach in Concept and Assessment. C

55 Danke vielmals Thank you for your attention Any questions? Frank Murphy