THAILAND CANNOT AFFORD

Transcription

1 THAILAND CANNOT AFFORD TO NOT BUILD 1.4 METER TRACK FOR THE HIGH SPEED TRAIN Mr. Pansak Vinyaratn Chief Policy Advisor to the Prime Minister The Royal Thai Government This presentation draws on ideas from Mr. Pansak Vinyaratn. No part of this presentation may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means - electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise - without the permission of Mr. Pansak Vinyaratn. Further information on Mr. Pansak Vinyaratn s works is available at the Royal Thai government.

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6 Euro-Asia Connectivity New Land Bridge: An Evolution of Efficiency 40% 75% 88 75% of total land in the world, much of it prime unspoiled agriculture land of the entire world population, asset of incalculable worth of the world s countries of known world energy resources as well as every mineral known needed for industrialization Economic growth of any country or region is dependent on nature of the transport system within it and between it and other countries or regions. Increase in trade volumes between Europe and Asia coupled with high transport costs, long transit time and extended threats in marine and air transportation as crashes, pirate attacks, terror acts and the like, has resulted in development of the New Eurasian Land Bridge and its greater use. High speed overland haulage through the New Eurasian Land Bridge can greatly increase trade, boost globalization and regional integration. Source:

7 Euro-Asia Connectivity New Land Bridge: An Evolution of Efficiency Growth rate for container port throughput in China accounted for some 25% in 2006, before outbreak of the world financial crisis Chinese ports accounted for some 28% of world container port in 2007 Economic modeling estimates the rail land bridge has an enormous economic potential of about 1 million ton in 2010 to about 10 million ton in 2020, given a properly functioning rail system and a sensible tariff policy. There has been only slow growth or zero growth in areas which lack of access to the marine transport. With an aim to accelerate trade between our countries, the rail freight connection is the essential strategy that will liberate the whole continent from geographical restrictions. Contrasted with the port-to-port connection, the rail network can provide extraordinary options for community-to-community s growth, especially for landlocked countries. (Source: REorganization of Transport networks by advanced RAil freight Concepts - RETRACK) Source:

8 Euro-Asia Connectivity New Land Bridge: An Evolution of Efficiency 15 days to link the Chinese capital to the German port city. By ship to the same markets takes double the time or some 45 days 1/3 of the price of air transit Shipping one container by train costs about US$10,000 (Source: Bloomberg Business Week, December % Expected growth rate of E-commerce in Asia-Pacific region in 2013 For 2012, Internet retailing in Asia-Pacific accounted for US$ 148,240.1 Million The inland logistics development with an additional e-commerce platform will create the sexy-gdp growth, that is the economic growth generated through the dynamic interaction between the communities within the transnational rail network. By linking the inland provinces through the rail system, it will create the new structural opportunities for all of our people beyond the exclusive growth within metropolitan areas. Source:

9 Euro-Asia Connectivity New Land Bridge: An Evolution of Efficiency Connectivity = Opportunities Key Success is 1.4 Meter Gauge More and more imported and exported goods between China and other Eurasian countries are delivered via railway on the new Eurasian land bridge. This method saves time, offers protection of goods and rapid turnover of cash flow for importers and exporters. Source: China Transportation Association

10 Euro-Asia as it happens The Re-born of New Silk Road Goods Moving East Russia Auto Components, Wine, Luxury Goods, and Recycled Materials Belarus Germany Poland Ukraine Kazakhstan Containers must be transferred from standard gauge to Russian gauge rails for transit across Russia and much of Eastern Europe Russian Gauge 1,520 mm Standard Gauge 1,436 mm Goods Moving West Laptops, LCD TV Screen, Auto Parts, and Steel Products Chongqing More and more imported and exported goods between China and other Eurasian countries are delivered via railway on the new Eurasian land bridge. This method saves time, offers protection of goods and rapid turnover of cash flow for importers and exporters. Source: China Transportation Association and Bloomberg Business Week

11 Euro-Asia as it happens The Re-born of New Silk Road Russia Belarus Germany Poland Ukraine Kazakhstan Since 2011, HP has transported 4 million notebook computers via rail route. It starts in Chongqing and traverses Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, and Poland before reaching Duisburg, Germany. With plans to transport its inkjet printers by rail as well, it will increase its rail use from an average of one train to 1.5 trains a week in Tony Prophet Senior Vice President of Operations for Printing and Personal Systems, Hewlett-Packard BMW, Audi, and Volkswagen are using the rail link to ship auto parts produced in Germany east to their assembly plants in China. BMW alone sends 3-7 trains a week from Leipzig to China, transporting car parts for its assembly plant in Shenyang. Thomas Kargl Land Bridge Chief Executive Officer Chongqing Source: Bloomberg Business Week

12 Connectivity = Opportunity The internet is as effective channel for building sales in hinterland areas..companies with global ambitions need to have and active online presence in China if they expect to succeed.. Christopher Nettesheim The Boston Consulting Group 148,240.1 million USD Asia-Pacific s value of internet retailing in % Expected growth rate of E-commerce in Asia- Pacific region in /3 of Global web users buy online monthly in 2012 (Source: Global WebIndex 2012) 44% Research online and buy products online 17% Visit store first, and then purchase online 90% of all polled used the web to either buy or research a purchase 51% Research online and visit store to purchase 32% Research online, visit store to view product, then return online to purchase Source: Euromonitor International & Global WebIndex, 2012

13 Connectivity = Opportunity Numbers of internet users in hinterland areas is steadily increasing with roughly 400 million users in China play a major role in internet culture Why China? Internet user growth rate by region* >=40% 30-40% <20% 193 million Online shoppers active today in China, compared with 170 million in the US 360 bn USD Expected E-retail sales in China in million Expected web users in China in % of Internet users in China that will shop online in % of overall advertising spending will be devoted to online marketing in 2015 Source: * Young Chinese in the Hinterland, Accenture, 2011 ** The Boston Consulting Group

14 Connectivity = Opportunity With Euro-Asia rail networks, internet retailers will benefit directly from connectivity & speed On-train Wi-fi services & uniform banking system will enhance e-commerce Logistics by Rail: Size of parcels doesn t matter Suitable for Thai SMEs & OTOP Small trucks as feeder for local delivery services Computers & mobile devices + Euro-Asia high + Global & local speed rail networks delivery services 66% of global internet users have a purchase via a computer, smartphone, or tablet China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, and Vietnam are the top 7 mobile / tablet e- commerce markets (Source: Boston Consulting Group survey, 2012) 37 countries have signed Joint Declaration on the promotion of Euro-Asian rail transport and activities towards unified railway law along the Eurasian transport corridor at a ministerial meeting in Geneva on 26 February 2013 (Signatories include: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Malta, Moldova, Mongolia, Netherlands, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, Uzbekistan) 16.3 bn USD Amount of investment that Alibaba group will use to start working on massive logistics network to provide 24-hour deliveries throughout China Jingdong, a leading businessto-consumer company in China, has started offering 2 new delivery options; Night Delivery and 3-Hour Delivery, in 6 major cities, incl. Beijing and Shanghai. That s why Thailand s high speed rail has to be linked with China s